First Year Dynasty Player: Season in dumps, what next?

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johnnymozart
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First Year Dynasty Player: Season in dumps, what next?

Postby johnnymozart » Fri Oct 03, 2014 8:23 am

Hey guys,

New to dynasty, drafted a team to compete more so now as I went Charles/Forte in rounds 1 and 2 of the start-up. Started the season at 0-4 and decided to switch gears to the future. This week in a couple of deals,
I gave:
Jamaal Charles
Matt Forte
Jordan Cameron
Andre Johnson
Reggie Wayne

I Received:
Keenan Allen
Andre Ellington
Alfred Morris
Tyler Eifert
2015 1st
2015 1st
2015 2nd
2015 2nd

Both teams I received the picks from are currently 1-3. One of them being a bit more delusional about their outlook this season than others. I expect one to be in the top 6 and one to be around 8-10 (14 team league). What sort of moves would you be looking to make if you were me? Stand still? Deal Ellington and Fitz off? One of the managers I'm looking at has Harvin, Decker, Hunter, McKinnon, Ingram, Blue. I'd be interested in getting Hunter and McKinnon--- but he turned down Fitz + 2nd for Hunter last night.

I feel like I need another blue-chip WR prospect and Hunter's value isn't exactly skyrocketing, though the potential is certainly there.
Should I look to keep dealing? Acquiring picks? Wait on Fitz and ship him out?
Will help you out with whatever green advice I can offer in return.

Here is my roster now: (.5 PPR)
QB- Kaepernick (Tannehill)
RB- Ellington, Morris (Gerhart, Lattimore, Polk)
WR- K.Allen, M.Floyd, Fitzgerald (Randle, Marv.Jones, JWright, Tyms)
TE- Bennett
K- Bailey
DEF- Cincy
IR- Eifert
(3 1sts and 2nds in 2015).
My team/Picks (14 Teamer- .5PPR) Start 1 QB, 2-3 RB, 2-3 WR, 1-2 TE
QB Lamar Jackson, Russ Wilson, Mills
RB A Gibson, Aaron Jones, Damien Harris, Penny IR, D.Pierce, Haskins
WR ARobinson, KAllen, Mike Evans, Sutton, Amon-Ra, TBoyd, GDavis, Dotson, Pierce
TE Mark Andrews, Goedert, LThomas
K Tucker
2023- No Picks
2024- 2, 2

Rebuild Sad Orphan 12 team .5PPR -- Start 1QB, 2-4 WR, 2-4 RB, 1-3 TE

QB. Tua, DJones (IR)
RB Bijan (R), Gibbs (R), J. Conner, TSpears (R), Demercado, J Mason, Z. White
WR Amon-Ra St Brown, Nico Collins, J. Reed (R), R. Shaheed, C.Tillman (R), Osborn, Terrace M, CSamuel, Pierce, Ross
TE Andrews, Ferguson, McBride, Ertz (IR)
DEF- Patriots, Vikings
2024 None
2025 2, 2, 2, 2, 3, 3, 3
2026 2, 3

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jeffster
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Re: First Year Dynasty Player: Season in dumps, what next?

Postby jeffster » Fri Oct 03, 2014 8:32 am

I like where you're going here. Given that this is a startup, there are sometimes promising rookies that slip through the cracks onto the waiver wire. Especially go through WRs. Moving LFitz would be a good move, but his value in a dynastay league is nill at the moment, so at best he can be used to sweeten another deal. Might be best sitting on him another week or two and seeing if he puts in even one solid performance, then selling cheap. What does the team with Moncreif look like? He's probably one of the most promising rookie WRs out there who isn't producing much of anything yet, keeping him below the radar in some cases.

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Re: First Year Dynasty Player: Season in dumps, what next?

Postby HawkeyeState » Fri Oct 03, 2014 8:35 am

Great move getting some young players like Keenan Allen and Alfred Morris. Big time kudos on getting 2 15 1sts and 2 15 2nds also. If your rebuilding, starting a rebuild with Keenan Allen, and extra 2 15 1sts and extra 2 15 2nds is a really good start!
To me it just seems like you need 1 more WR and an upside RB and you could be in better shape then you think.
I think Hunter, McKinnon, and Ingram would be my targets.
McKinnon is an athletic freak and his usage will frustrate you at times, but if AP doesn't come back to the Vikings McKinnon will eventually be the lead dog in MINN.
Hunter is also an athletic freak and I honestly can't believe that the owner turned down Fitz+2nd for him. I wouldn't deal Hunter for that but most owners would in a heartbeat, especially with Hunters usage so far.
Wait for Fitz to have a decent game and that will change quickly (do not trade one of your 1sts to acquire Hunter)
Reason I included Ingram in my target list is right now his value is decently low due to Saints offense sucking and his injury, I think they are going to force feed him when he comes back and if he doesn't get resigned he could go into an even better situation next season.
Team 1
10 TM .5 PPR, 6 pt all TDs 1/2/3/1/2Flex
Newton, Rivers
LF, Chubb, Michel, Kerryon, Hyde, AJones, Royce F, Crowell
Adams, Cooper, Alshon, Watkins, ARob, Fuller, Doctson, Funchess, Gallup, Pettis, Valdez-Scant
Gronk, HHenry, Engram
1.09, 2.09, 3.09, 4.09, 5.09

Team 2
10 TM 1/2/3/1/1Flex 6pt all TDs .25 PPR RB, .5 PPR WR, 1 PPR TE
Wilson, Big Ben
Bell, JConner, MMack, Shady, CThompson, D'Onta Foreman, C Edmonds, B Scarborough
Julio, Nuk, Fuller, Cooks, ARob, Watkins, Cooper, SShepard, CDavis, DJ Chark
Kelce, Olsen, Andrews
1.09, 2.09, 3.09, 4.09, 5.09

Team 3
10 team, 0.5 PPR RBs WRs, 1 PPR TEs, Devy Superflex League
Carr, Goff, Falk
Barkley, Dalvin, Mixon, Michel, Ballage, MDavis, Dixon, Akers*
Hopkins, JuJu, Watkins, Fuller, Agholor, Moncrief, EQSB, Valdez-Scant, CRogers
Eifert, Ebron, JJames, JCook
1.02, 2.02, 2.06, 3.04

Played against David Johnson in HS, he was a stud back then too

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Re: First Year Dynasty Player: Season in dumps, what next?

Postby HawkeyeState » Fri Oct 03, 2014 8:36 am

Also be looking to acquire rookie WRs like Donte Moncrief, Allen Robinson, DaVante Adams, Jeff Janis
Team 1
10 TM .5 PPR, 6 pt all TDs 1/2/3/1/2Flex
Newton, Rivers
LF, Chubb, Michel, Kerryon, Hyde, AJones, Royce F, Crowell
Adams, Cooper, Alshon, Watkins, ARob, Fuller, Doctson, Funchess, Gallup, Pettis, Valdez-Scant
Gronk, HHenry, Engram
1.09, 2.09, 3.09, 4.09, 5.09

Team 2
10 TM 1/2/3/1/1Flex 6pt all TDs .25 PPR RB, .5 PPR WR, 1 PPR TE
Wilson, Big Ben
Bell, JConner, MMack, Shady, CThompson, D'Onta Foreman, C Edmonds, B Scarborough
Julio, Nuk, Fuller, Cooks, ARob, Watkins, Cooper, SShepard, CDavis, DJ Chark
Kelce, Olsen, Andrews
1.09, 2.09, 3.09, 4.09, 5.09

Team 3
10 team, 0.5 PPR RBs WRs, 1 PPR TEs, Devy Superflex League
Carr, Goff, Falk
Barkley, Dalvin, Mixon, Michel, Ballage, MDavis, Dixon, Akers*
Hopkins, JuJu, Watkins, Fuller, Agholor, Moncrief, EQSB, Valdez-Scant, CRogers
Eifert, Ebron, JJames, JCook
1.02, 2.02, 2.06, 3.04

Played against David Johnson in HS, he was a stud back then too

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Re: First Year Dynasty Player: Season in dumps, what next?

Postby dlf_jules » Fri Oct 03, 2014 8:38 am

Smart move to try to buy low on Hunter, but I wouldn't pay any more than you offered. You may have sold a bit low on your aging vets, but once you commit to a rebuild you have to get what you can for those guys.

Right now, I'd be trying to move Morris for a 2015 1st+. Try to get a 2015 1st for Fitz once he regains some trade value. Also, when injury hits, you pounce. Right now, you should send buy-low offers out for Ingram, Jordan Reed, and Odell Beckham. When any other valuable guy goes down, you should be buying.
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Re: First Year Dynasty Player: Season in dumps, what next?

Postby HawkeyeState » Fri Oct 03, 2014 8:39 am

Yep Odell Beckham is a target player also and so is Cody Latimer. He will get some work next year. John Fox HATES rookies a la Montee Ball basically doing nothing until needed last season
Team 1
10 TM .5 PPR, 6 pt all TDs 1/2/3/1/2Flex
Newton, Rivers
LF, Chubb, Michel, Kerryon, Hyde, AJones, Royce F, Crowell
Adams, Cooper, Alshon, Watkins, ARob, Fuller, Doctson, Funchess, Gallup, Pettis, Valdez-Scant
Gronk, HHenry, Engram
1.09, 2.09, 3.09, 4.09, 5.09

Team 2
10 TM 1/2/3/1/1Flex 6pt all TDs .25 PPR RB, .5 PPR WR, 1 PPR TE
Wilson, Big Ben
Bell, JConner, MMack, Shady, CThompson, D'Onta Foreman, C Edmonds, B Scarborough
Julio, Nuk, Fuller, Cooks, ARob, Watkins, Cooper, SShepard, CDavis, DJ Chark
Kelce, Olsen, Andrews
1.09, 2.09, 3.09, 4.09, 5.09

Team 3
10 team, 0.5 PPR RBs WRs, 1 PPR TEs, Devy Superflex League
Carr, Goff, Falk
Barkley, Dalvin, Mixon, Michel, Ballage, MDavis, Dixon, Akers*
Hopkins, JuJu, Watkins, Fuller, Agholor, Moncrief, EQSB, Valdez-Scant, CRogers
Eifert, Ebron, JJames, JCook
1.02, 2.02, 2.06, 3.04

Played against David Johnson in HS, he was a stud back then too

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Re: First Year Dynasty Player: Season in dumps, what next?

Postby dlf_jules » Fri Oct 03, 2014 8:45 am

HawkeyeState wrote:Yep Odell Beckham is a target player also and so is Cody Latimer.
That's another good one.

Rebuilding is actually ridiculously fun if you don't mind the whole losing part. I can understand why some owners get stuck in perpetual rebuilds.
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Re: First Year Dynasty Player: Season in dumps, what next?

Postby jeffster » Fri Oct 03, 2014 8:57 am

Jules wrote:
HawkeyeState wrote:Yep Odell Beckham is a target player also and so is Cody Latimer.
That's another good one.

Rebuilding is actually ridiculously fun if you don't mind the whole losing part. I can understand why some owners get stuck in perpetual rebuilds.
Haha, I know this feeling too. Rebuilding is fun, but I try to remind myself that winning is too.

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Re: First Year Dynasty Player: Season in dumps, what next?

Postby BadgerYou » Fri Oct 03, 2014 9:01 am

Jules wrote:
HawkeyeState wrote:Yep Odell Beckham is a target player also and so is Cody Latimer.
That's another good one.

Rebuilding is actually ridiculously fun if you don't mind the whole losing part. I can understand why some owners get stuck in perpetual rebuilds.


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Re: First Year Dynasty Player: Season in dumps, what next?

Postby failblazer » Fri Oct 03, 2014 10:13 am

I'd try to move Martellus Bennett if I could. He's on pace for 1180 yards and 16 TDs, which is obviously ridiculous and likely an unsustainable pace. If you can get a 1st for him then I'd jump all over it.

Love the names being listed here as potential buy lows. There's a lot of talented receivers out there that aren't necessarily doing a lot to help their fantasy owners win games right now so some of them may be looking to move guys for more immediate help. Rookies are never more valuable than at draft time and never less so in the first half of the season when likely 90% aren't playing a ton and are still adjusting to the NFL. Adams is starting to get playing time in GB so now is likely the last chance to get him at a reasonable price. Odell Beckham is a player I loved watching on tape in the offseason and he's due to play this weekend for the first time so it's not too late to buy on him. I got him for a late 1st (hopefully late as I'm 3-1) very recently. Moncrief could turn out to be a legit monster, but you'll have to be very patient with him as he's buried on the depth chart in Indy and was always going to take a few years to develop. Huge upside for him though. Eric Ebron is another guy. Drafted high but still struggling with the mental side of things (by his own admission). Potentially big upside, saw him go as high a 1.05 in rookie drafts but I bet you could get him for less right now.

Looking at some 2nd year guys, Aaron Dobson springs to mind. A borderline 1st/2nd rounder last year, I'm seeing him valued around a 3rd round rookie pick now. Whether it's in NE or elsewhere, he's worth a shot for that price. Hunter's been named and a great target. Frustrating to own given the situation in Tennessee so worth testing his owner's resolve. I think you can still probably get Markus Wheaton for less than what his upside merits right now. The Steelers have a history of getting strong production from their WR2. Got him in the offseason for a 2nd. At that price I'd say he's a good value if his owner is relatively deep at WR. Gavin Escobar is another guy I like. Witten seems to me to be winding down noticeably and this guy can catch like no one's business. Probably a guy who can be had dirt cheap right now or may even be on your waiver wire.

Then I look at QBs and I have two main ones in mind. Ryan Mallet and Jimmy Garoppolo. Mallett will start at some point this season, mark my words. We've all seen Pickspatrick play and we all know he's a marginal talent (beard and motivational speaking notwithstanding) and Mallett has one heck of an arm. With Andre Johnson and DeAndre Hopkins to throw to, he could light it up early. I saw Cousins get moved to some QB needy teams for 2nd round picks or better. Maybe stash Mallett and flip him if/when he explodes. Not going to cost you much, could very well be on your wire right now and could bring a nice return from a team trying to make a run or someone who suffers an injury at the position. I generally try to scoop up guys like this to trade later, given the fact that you can usually unload even a bad QB in a good short term situation for something, even if it's not a ton. It's still a profit and even a 3rd can be of great value come draft day (Amaro, Latimer, McKinnon, Bortles all went 3rd round in one league I'm in). So look for the guys who could see a big spike in value, like McCown experienced last year. For instance, if Cutler goes down, consider scooping Jimmy Clausen up to flip to a team. Again, even if it's a 3rd rounder or if you can get a developmental prospect then you've made a gain. Then I also mentioned Garoppolo. Saw this guy go as high as 2nd round in rookie drafts and sadly it looks like Brady is coming to the end of his HOF run. If Garoppollo is on the wire then consider stashing him because come the offseason he could be worth a fair bit. Another NE guy who could be in line for significantly more time next year could be James White. Ridley and Vereen are UFAs and Bolden is a RFA. White could be in line for starting time next year so worth considering as a stash.
16 Team PPR (11th Year Dynasty - Former 2 Time Champion)
P. Mahomes, Z. Wilson
C. McCaffrey, N. Harris, C. Hubbard
D. Hopkins, A. Cooper, C. Kupp, D. Johnson, G. Davis, D. Mims, J. Palmer
D. Waller, C. Kmet, B. Jordan

C. Young, R. Quinn
D. Leonard, M. Milano, C. Mosely, B. Okereke, J. Davis
J. Simmons, J. Fuller

Picks - 1.01, 2.12, 3.01, 3.15, 4.14

16 Team PPR (10th Year Dynasty - Reigning 5 Time Champion)
A. Rodgers, J. Fields
C. McCaffrey, D. Henry, J. Dobbins, M. Davis
D. Hopkins, D. Adams, C. Kupp, M. Jones, M. Valdes-Scantling, A. Green, T. Johnson, Dy. Brown, G. Pickens, J. Tolbert,
N. Fant, A. Okwugbunam, J. Harris
J. Elliott

D. Lawrence, R. Quinn, T. Hendrickson
R. Smith, B. Okereke, L. Wilson, J. Davis, D. Tranquil, B. Asamoah
J. Simmons, W. Harris

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Re: First Year Dynasty Player: Season in dumps, what next?

Postby johnnymozart » Fri Oct 03, 2014 10:49 am

Thanks everyone for all the help! Much appreciated. 0-4 and last night my opponent had GB D and Lacy, so we're going into Sunday in a 0-48.7 hole. Likely heading to 0-5 haha.

At this point I'm thinking I have a couple guys (Gerhart, Fitz) who are at 0 value and I'll either be selling short or giving away for nothing so best move is just to hold and hope for some uptick in value. I actually like Fitz as a player and think he can still produce, but it's become apparent it won't be this season. When looking to acquire one of the young WR's from 2014 draft class what is fair value? Should I be offering that same package (Fitz+2nd?) or is only someone like Hunter worth that sort of bundle?

I can confirm the value of Fitz in this league is 0 based on sending out feelers. I'd actually go after him as a buy low but no one seems to want to touch him. He's viewed as dead weight.

I think an important mention here is the lack of our season 1's taxi squad. Next season will have the addition of the 5 man taxi squad, so I feel like picks have even more value for 2015. Essentially I'll be drafting my taxi squad in the 2015 draft so the rest of my roster can stay in place.

If I was looking to move Bennett, the most glaring need of assistance (Bennett is both immediate and medium term help as he's just 27) has just Witten on his roster (also has Allen Robinson). Is Bennett for Robinson and a 2nd fair value? Bennett for a first? Owner is 3-1 and will probably finish in the upper half (picks 8-14).

If I'm dealing Ellington what is a reasonable package to expect in return? Or is he worth holding onto?
My team/Picks (14 Teamer- .5PPR) Start 1 QB, 2-3 RB, 2-3 WR, 1-2 TE
QB Lamar Jackson, Russ Wilson, Mills
RB A Gibson, Aaron Jones, Damien Harris, Penny IR, D.Pierce, Haskins
WR ARobinson, KAllen, Mike Evans, Sutton, Amon-Ra, TBoyd, GDavis, Dotson, Pierce
TE Mark Andrews, Goedert, LThomas
K Tucker
2023- No Picks
2024- 2, 2

Rebuild Sad Orphan 12 team .5PPR -- Start 1QB, 2-4 WR, 2-4 RB, 1-3 TE

QB. Tua, DJones (IR)
RB Bijan (R), Gibbs (R), J. Conner, TSpears (R), Demercado, J Mason, Z. White
WR Amon-Ra St Brown, Nico Collins, J. Reed (R), R. Shaheed, C.Tillman (R), Osborn, Terrace M, CSamuel, Pierce, Ross
TE Andrews, Ferguson, McBride, Ertz (IR)
DEF- Patriots, Vikings
2024 None
2025 2, 2, 2, 2, 3, 3, 3
2026 2, 3

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Re: First Year Dynasty Player: Season in dumps, what next?

Postby failblazer » Fri Oct 03, 2014 11:02 am

johnnymozart wrote:Thanks everyone for all the help! Much appreciated. 0-4 and last night my opponent had GB D and Lacy, so we're going into Sunday in a 0-48.7 hole. Likely heading to 0-5 haha.
No worries man. That's what we're to do, help each other. Yeah, not a good week to go against anyone starting GB players.
johnnymozart wrote:At this point I'm thinking I have a couple guys (Gerhart, Fitz) who are at 0 value and I'll either be selling short or giving away for nothing so best move is just to hold and hope for some uptick in value. I actually like Fitz as a player and think he can still produce, but it's become apparent it won't be this season. When looking to acquire one of the young WR's from 2014 draft class what is fair value? Should I be offering that same package (Fitz+2nd?) or is only someone like Hunter worth that sort of bundle?
Agree with your assessment of those two guys. I think Gerhart has a chance to pick it up midseason. The stretch from week 6-8 will be telling. TEN, CLE, MIA is a nice stretch of games so maybe he can pick it up there and you can flip him then. The offseason is the best bet for Fitz. If he's moved then he could see some hype again. Lots of great potential landing spots but also a few stinkers. Hold and hope.
johnnymozart wrote:I think an important mention here is the lack of our season 1's taxi squad. Next season will have the addition of the 5 man taxi squad, so I feel like picks have even more value for 2015. Essentially I'll be drafting my taxi squad in the 2015 draft so the rest of my roster can stay in place.
How does that work? Do you draft first and then assign guys to the practice squad to cut your roster down? If that's the case then definitely look at stashing guys before the season is over, like Garoppolo and White like I mentioned and others.
johnnymozart wrote:If I was looking to move Bennett, the most glaring need of assistance (Bennett is both immediate and medium term help as he's just 27) has just Witten on his roster (also has Allen Robinson). Is Bennett for Robinson and a 2nd fair value? Bennett for a first? Owner is 3-1 and will probably finish in the upper half (picks 8-14).
Bennett for Robinson straight up is a good place to start. I doubt anyone gives you a first for him but you never know.
johnnymozart wrote:If I'm dealing Ellington what is a reasonable package to expect in return? Or is he worth holding onto?
Hold Ellington unless you can package him for an even better young RB (Bell, Gio, Lacy).

Good luck man. Rebuilding is a tough process but worth the effort in the long haul if you can get the team turned around.
16 Team PPR (11th Year Dynasty - Former 2 Time Champion)
P. Mahomes, Z. Wilson
C. McCaffrey, N. Harris, C. Hubbard
D. Hopkins, A. Cooper, C. Kupp, D. Johnson, G. Davis, D. Mims, J. Palmer
D. Waller, C. Kmet, B. Jordan

C. Young, R. Quinn
D. Leonard, M. Milano, C. Mosely, B. Okereke, J. Davis
J. Simmons, J. Fuller

Picks - 1.01, 2.12, 3.01, 3.15, 4.14

16 Team PPR (10th Year Dynasty - Reigning 5 Time Champion)
A. Rodgers, J. Fields
C. McCaffrey, D. Henry, J. Dobbins, M. Davis
D. Hopkins, D. Adams, C. Kupp, M. Jones, M. Valdes-Scantling, A. Green, T. Johnson, Dy. Brown, G. Pickens, J. Tolbert,
N. Fant, A. Okwugbunam, J. Harris
J. Elliott

D. Lawrence, R. Quinn, T. Hendrickson
R. Smith, B. Okereke, L. Wilson, J. Davis, D. Tranquil, B. Asamoah
J. Simmons, W. Harris

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Re: First Year Dynasty Player: Season in dumps, what next?

Postby johnnymozart » Fri Oct 03, 2014 11:03 am

For instance, the owner that has Ingram, McKinnon and Hunter. What sort of package could I come up with (if at all) that would involve Ellington? Ellington for Hunter and McKinnon? Hunter and Ingram? Hunter and a first?
My team/Picks (14 Teamer- .5PPR) Start 1 QB, 2-3 RB, 2-3 WR, 1-2 TE
QB Lamar Jackson, Russ Wilson, Mills
RB A Gibson, Aaron Jones, Damien Harris, Penny IR, D.Pierce, Haskins
WR ARobinson, KAllen, Mike Evans, Sutton, Amon-Ra, TBoyd, GDavis, Dotson, Pierce
TE Mark Andrews, Goedert, LThomas
K Tucker
2023- No Picks
2024- 2, 2

Rebuild Sad Orphan 12 team .5PPR -- Start 1QB, 2-4 WR, 2-4 RB, 1-3 TE

QB. Tua, DJones (IR)
RB Bijan (R), Gibbs (R), J. Conner, TSpears (R), Demercado, J Mason, Z. White
WR Amon-Ra St Brown, Nico Collins, J. Reed (R), R. Shaheed, C.Tillman (R), Osborn, Terrace M, CSamuel, Pierce, Ross
TE Andrews, Ferguson, McBride, Ertz (IR)
DEF- Patriots, Vikings
2024 None
2025 2, 2, 2, 2, 3, 3, 3
2026 2, 3

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Re: First Year Dynasty Player: Season in dumps, what next?

Postby jeffster » Fri Oct 03, 2014 11:06 am

I think you hold Ellington, and instead consider trading one or two of your 2nd round picks on young WR talent. OBJ is a good example, or Moncreif (although his stock is probably too high for that, depending on your league).

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Re: First Year Dynasty Player: Season in dumps, what next?

Postby sloth8u » Fri Oct 03, 2014 11:51 am

i think you sold very low in your initial trades and while this season may have been lost...you could have also rolled off 4 straight wins to put you back in the mix. even if you hadnt...charles, forte, cameron would have been solid for the next year or two. you could have held them and moved guys like reggie and johnson for prospects..ala latimer, beckham, or 1st or 2nd rd picks when owners needed them. but whats done is done and you are in major rebuild right now. i would look to move ellington for a young wr you like and a 1st, same for alfy. that should amp up your wr's and you can take rb with your picks next year. i personally would not sell bennett. he has been solid for a few years now and there is no reason to think that he cant put up top 5 te numbers for the foreseeable future in that offfense.


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