Higgins value

[Zech13]

12 team ppr SF/TE (2ppr) start 3 wr. What is Higgins value in ‘22 picks?

Thanks

[tsarpepe]

A top-3 pick, or a pair of highish 1sts.

[Gator Sens]

Early to mid 1st depending on how worried the owner is with Chase. Higgins is a very solid young WR.

[Anteaters]

Mid to late 1st for me. Closer to late 1st early 2nd in SF+TEP. I have no doubt that Chase's presence (as Chase gets even better in year 2) will relegate Higgins to WR2 status at best.

[StripesOfKC]

Mid to late 1st for me. Closer to late 1st early 2nd in SF+TEP. I have no doubt that Chase's presence (as Chase gets even better in year 2) will relegate Higgins to WR2 status at best.

Well he just finished as a low WR1 ppg

So you're taking scrubs like Jeudy over him I take it?

Early 2nd would indicate you think there are 4 WRs or so in this draft that will be a low WR1/high WR2 by year 2. Who are they?

[FantasyFreak]

Higgins is a WR who just, and I mean a few days ago turned 23. He put up over 900 yards as a rookie and over 1,000 in year 2. He has early round 2 pedigree (first pick in the 2nd round) and a fantastic college profile. He's attached to an ascending young QB who is close to elite in his 2nd year. Higgins is as bullet proof as they come. He's worth a very early first, with the lack of QB talent in this class, no big RB prospect, and no WR prospect that has a better profile than he does. Maybe Treylon has a higher ceiling, but I can't think of many players in this class that should be valued more than Higgins.

[Anteaters]

Mid to late 1st for me. Closer to late 1st early 2nd in SF+TEP. I have no doubt that Chase's presence (as Chase gets even better in year 2) will relegate Higgins to WR2 status at best.

Well he just finished as a low WR1 ppg

So you're taking scrubs like Jeudy over him I take it?

Early 2nd would indicate you think there are 4 WRs or so in this draft that will be a low WR1/high WR2 by year 2. Who are they?

According to my sources, Higgins finished as a low end WR2 for overall points, maybe middle WR2 for ppg. I don't see anywhere saying he compiled a WR1 season.

Going into the season, I had Higgins rated similarly as Jeudy/Aiyuk/Hollywood/Diontae/TMc and other young (year 2 or year 3) good WRs whose fate could go either way. Higgins finished WR20, Hollywood WR17, Diontae WR8, Aiyuk WR36, and TMc WR25. A lot of this is situation based. QB status, usage, offensive scheme, etc. One factor is touch competition. DJ finished WR1 because he dominated touches over his receiving competition on PIT.

Occasionally two WRs from the same team post WR1 seasons. It is extremely rare that two WRs from the same team can maintain dual WR1 status for multiple years. It simply doesn't happen. In 2020, DKM and Lockett did it - In 2021 they were both WR2. In 2019 Godwin+Evans did it. Godwin missed a couple of games to diminish his overall pts, but he was still WR1 by ppg. In 2021, they both did it again but Gronk and AB missed a lot of time which bettered their circumstances. Diggs+Thielen did it in 2018, both slipped off WR1 in 2019. Thielen+JJ did it in 2020, but not in 2021. AB+Juju did it in 2018, but Juju hasn't done it since.

I like Higgins and think he has great talent. If I was looking to stockpile low-end WR2s, I'd be all over him. Unless I believe Higgins is going to be the AlphaWR in Cincy, I can't logically project Higgins to produce WR1 stats for the next 5 seasons. Chase is the undeniable AlphaWR in Cincy, and Chase is the one I project to have WR1 stats over the next 5 seasons. History says two WRs from the same team cannot do that, so if forced to choose (and that's what all Chase and Higgins' fantasy owners are doing) I'm choosing Chase to be a fantasy WR1 and Higgins to be a low-end WR2 or high-end WR3.

So if history tells me Higgins cannot maintain WR1 status (barring a Chase injury or a trade for one of the two) I have to relegate Higgins' value to any other low-end WR2. That's not vote against his talent - it's a vote fully accounting for his Talent+Circumstances and leaving any emotional attachment out of it.

I'd be happy to have Higgins on my roster, but I wouldn't fool myself into thinking he was a WR1. And I wouldn't plan to have a roster full of WRs who all carried mid-to-low WR2 and mid-to-low WR3 projections.

[dondickenson]

In 0.5ppr, Higgins was tied for 12th(w Mike Williams) in PPG at 13.0. Tied for 11th if you set the minimum games played at 8, eliminating Antonio Brown.

He and Chris Godwin both played 14 games. Higgins scored 182.1 on 110 targets. Godwin 193.4 on 127 targets.

Higgins just turned 23, Godwin will turn 26 in a month.

Just a little comparison, showing that, imo, Higgins should be more valuable than Godwin right now. Would anybody even consider selling Godwin as a trade in for say Drake London or Garret Wilson? Laughably stupid imo. Logic would argue even stupider to do so with Higgins.

Higgins is worth an early 1st +, with the + being a flyer young WR, an aging win now WR, or a 2nd.

[chronicdakpain]

high 1st

[StripesOfKC]

Mid to late 1st for me. Closer to late 1st early 2nd in SF+TEP. I have no doubt that Chase's presence (as Chase gets even better in year 2) will relegate Higgins to WR2 status at best.

Well he just finished as a low WR1 ppg

So you're taking scrubs like Jeudy over him I take it?

Early 2nd would indicate you think there are 4 WRs or so in this draft that will be a low WR1/high WR2 by year 2. Who are they?

According to my sources, Higgins finished as a low end WR2 for overall points, maybe middle WR2 for ppg. I don't see anywhere saying he compiled a WR1 season.

Going into the season, I had Higgins rated similarly as Jeudy/Aiyuk/Hollywood/Diontae/TMc and other young (year 2 or year 3) good WRs whose fate could go either way. Higgins finished WR20, Hollywood WR17, Diontae WR8, Aiyuk WR36, and TMc WR25. A lot of this is situation based. QB status, usage, offensive scheme, etc. One factor is touch competition. DJ finished WR1 because he dominated touches over his receiving competition on PIT.

Occasionally two WRs from the same team post WR1 seasons. It is extremely rare that two WRs from the same team can maintain dual WR1 status for multiple years. It simply doesn't happen. In 2020, DKM and Lockett did it - In 2021 they were both WR2. In 2019 Godwin+Evans did it. Godwin missed a couple of games to diminish his overall pts, but he was still WR1 by ppg. In 2021, they both did it again but Gronk and AB missed a lot of time which bettered their circumstances. Diggs+Thielen did it in 2018, both slipped off WR1 in 2019. Thielen+JJ did it in 2020, but not in 2021. AB+Juju did it in 2018, but Juju hasn't done it since.

I like Higgins and think he has great talent. If I was looking to stockpile low-end WR2s, I'd be all over him. Unless I believe Higgins is going to be the AlphaWR in Cincy, I can't logically project Higgins to produce WR1 stats for the next 5 seasons. Chase is the undeniable AlphaWR in Cincy, and Chase is the one I project to have WR1 stats over the next 5 seasons. History says two WRs from the same team cannot do that, so if forced to choose (and that's what all Chase and Higgins' fantasy owners are doing) I'm choosing Chase to be a fantasy WR1 and Higgins to be a low-end WR2 or high-end WR3.

So if history tells me Higgins cannot maintain WR1 status (barring a Chase injury or a trade for one of the two) I have to relegate Higgins' value to any other low-end WR2. That's not vote against his talent - it's a vote fully accounting for his Talent+Circumstances and leaving any emotional attachment out of it.

I'd be happy to have Higgins on my roster, but I wouldn't fool myself into thinking he was a WR1. And I wouldn't plan to have a roster full of WRs who all carried mid-to-low WR2 and mid-to-low WR3 projections.

I mean he was quite literally the WR12 in PPG in PPR (he missed a game that knocked him down in total points)

Not sure what made up sources are telling you otherwise

He has been an objectively better player through two years than someone like Ceedee Lamb earning a higher target share (24% to 20%)

[pmart33]

I'd pay a mid first for him, but it'll probably take an early first if you're serious about acquiring him this offseason.

[HughHoney]

Top 5 pick

[Anteaters]

I mean he was quite literally the WR12 in PPG in PPR (he missed a game that knocked him down in total points)

Not sure what made up sources are telling you otherwise

He has been an objectively better player through two years than someone like Ceedee Lamb earning a higher target share (24% to 20%)

https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/reports ... t=1&end=17 Here, Higgins was WR20 in overall scoring. While I also consider ppg in my personal assessments, I accept that there are flaws inherent in taking an all-in position on either PPG or OverallPoints. I'm more than happy to split the difference with you and say that for 2021, Higgins turned in a WR16 season.

Even if we go with your assertion that because Higgins managed WR12 in ppg in 2021, the facts I mentioned earlier indicates it is highly unlikely Cincy will produce two WR1 again. So I guess you're arguing that Higgins will be the AlphaWR in Cincy and Chase will slip to secondary status in Cincy? Or is your contention that against historical evidence, one NFL team will support two fantasy WR1s for the next 6 years?

But before you get in a huff defending your guy again, I want to stress that I think Higgins is a very talented WR. This isn't about whether I think Higgins has more WR ability/talent than Lamb or DJM or anyone else. I just think Higgins has the incredible misfortune to not be his team's #1 target. On other teams, I might agree with you that Higgins was worth being considered a true fantasy WR1 going forward. On Cincy, you can reread all the words I posted in my previous message for why, I do not think Higgins should be projected to be a WR1 going forward.

It's great that you disagree. I hope everybody else in my fantasy leagues agrees with you.

EDIT: I looked up Higgins 2021 in six leagues I play in. The last is not ppr, but the rest are ppr
A) 19th OVR : 18th PPG
B) 25th OVR : 14th PPG
C) 22nd OVR : 17th PPG
D) 25th OVR : 14th PPG
E) 25th OVR : 14th PPG
E) 15th OVR : 16th PPG

[StripesOfKC]

I mean he was quite literally the WR12 in PPG in PPR (he missed a game that knocked him down in total points)

Not sure what made up sources are telling you otherwise

He has been an objectively better player through two years than someone like Ceedee Lamb earning a higher target share (24% to 20%)

https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/reports ... t=1&end=17 Here, Higgins was WR20 in overall scoring. While I also consider ppg in my personal assessments, I accept that there are flaws inherent in taking an all-in position on either PPG or OverallPoints. I'm more than happy to split the difference with you and say that for 2021, Higgins turned in a WR16 season.

Even if we go with your assertion that because Higgins managed WR12 in ppg in 2021, the facts I mentioned earlier indicates it is highly unlikely Cincy will produce two WR1 again. So I guess you're arguing that Higgins will be the AlphaWR in Cincy and Chase will slip to secondary status in Cincy? Or is your contention that against historical evidence, one NFL team will support two fantasy WR1s for the next 6 years?

But before you get in a huff defending your guy again, I want to stress that I think Higgins is a very talented WR. This isn't about whether I think Higgins has more WR ability/talent than Lamb or DJM or anyone else. I just think Higgins has the incredible misfortune to not be his team's #1 target. On other teams, I might agree with you that Higgins was worth being considered a true fantasy WR1 going forward. On Cincy, you can reread all the words I posted in my previous message for why, I do not think Higgins should be projected to be a WR1 going forward.

It's great that you disagree. I hope everybody else in my fantasy leagues agrees with you.

EDIT: I looked up Higgins 2021 in six leagues I play in. The last is not ppr, but the rest are ppr
A) 19th OVR : 18th PPG
B) 25th OVR : 14th PPG
C) 22nd OVR : 17th PPG
D) 25th OVR : 14th PPG
E) 25th OVR : 14th PPG
E) 15th OVR : 16th PPG

Well I'm not lol. I've never cared about overall points

PPG only for me. I give zero shits about injuries. Never have outside of a few select cases. They're (for the most part) random and unpredictable

I care about the points I can expect from a player when plugging them into my lineup (part of why I'm never quitting AJ Brown or CMC or Kittle)

And why exactly is it unlikely?

If anything I would say both of their passing volumes are near certain to tick upwards...why?

A. The Bengals were bottom half of the league in pass attempts per game

And that was almost entirely a product of Burrow's first half of the season--where they were actually wayy below league average in pass attempts per game and even further down in pass rate in neutral game scripts

Something that changed entirely after the bye

If you look at the Bengals 2020 season they were one of the most pass happy teams in the league by both metrics (not just because they sucked--even in neutral situations)

Same for 2019 with Andy Dalton in Zac Taylor's first year

2021 was the least pass happy year of the Zac Taylor era and of Burrow's time in Cincy--but really it was just the first half of 2021 where their pass frequency was 29th in the league--you know when Burrow was still returning from the knee injury that was still bothering him up to week 1

Regardless the return to the "norm" of the last few years in neutral down pass rate at a bare minimum puts their passing volume well above what the full season stats from this year would tell--that seems based on available data a far more accurate projection than them being a top 4 run heavy team like they were the first half of this season

So why exactly would a WR getting the same near elite target share on an offense that seems very likely to have more passing volume in 2022 be projected to fall off?

But Ceedee Lamb who can't dream of that target share because of Cedrick Wilson of all people is some elite top 5 WR while Higgins is comparable to bums like Jeudy?

For the record target share is an extremely sticky stat from what I've found once a player becomes established (year 2 and beyond). Of course there are times it swings wildly but those are rare because targets are earned, NOT given. A player has a 24% share because they are earning that much. Even when players change teams target shares tend to stay similar or within a range they had already shown

[Mr. Reid]

For reference, I recently offered 1.02 in our 14 team SF league and was rejected. I'm guessing as the rookie hype starts to pick up in the offseason, the owner might come around eventually.