Buy low on Saquon in a rebuild? Dumb?

[Prison_Mike]

(Sorry in advance for the novel)

I’m in a 1st year rebuild, but have a solid foundation

I made a big trade earlier this year that netted me AJB & two 1sts (the ‘22 1st is looking earlier than expected)

QB/RB is what I’d plan to address in the next few drafts (BPA pending)

There’s another rebuilding team looking to move Saquon ahead of the deadline and I think I could get him fairly cheap (early/mid ‘22 1st + something small)

Would it be dumb to buy him now? Or does he not fit my window?

Here’s my team:

(12tm | PPR | SuperFlex)
QB: Dak, Baker, Keenum
RB: Edmond, Hines, White, Cohen, Ty
WR: Jefferson, AJB, DJM, Kirk, OBJ, C.Davis, Shepard, Tyler Johnson
TE: Fant, OJH, Ebron
'22 Picks: (currently): 1.03, 1.04, 2.03, 3.01, 4.03
'23 Picks: 1st, 1st, 4th

[Gator Sens]

I may be in the minority but looking at a couple year rebuild, I would rather hold the early 1st. Barkley is on a really bad team and in a really bad system. That could change or it could stay the same. His value is in a very risky area at this point and I would not bank on him getting back to an elite RB unless a lot changes. Again, I may be in the minority but I would hold here especially looking multiple years out.

Jefferson and Brown are great pillars to build around but an RB would not be my focus at this point.

[abloom]

Mid first, sure. Early first, pass.

But you need to be able to flip him for picks/players when you can. And unless you think you can flip him now (doubtful) I don't bother making this move until off season anyways

[Prison_Mike]

Mid first, sure. Early first, pass.

But you need to be able to flip him for picks/players when you can.

Tbh that would be the plan. I’d love to buy him now, then flip him for a productive young WR/TE + 1st when his value (almost inevitably IMO) bounces back, if not solely based on positional scarcity

The gamble is whether his value bounces back

[abloom]

Mid first, sure. Early first, pass.

But you need to be able to flip him for picks/players when you can.

Tbh that would be the plan. I’d love to buy him now, then flip him for a productive young WR/TE + 1st when his value (almost inevitably IMO) bounces back, if not solely based on positional scarcity

The gamble is whether his value bounces back

ACL injuries are really two year recoveries for rbs. One year gone for the surgery and the second year they have reduced production due to compensation injuries.

If the guy is shopping Barkley and this is the best he can get, you likely will have to hold Barkley until next year and he proves he's back fully.

[IR1]

Depending on the something small, I’d probably take that. Seems like the value is there, can move later when hype builds or you may be able to compete sooner than expected

[halfbaked88]

You would know if your league pays up for RBs or not. Even if they don't, regardless I think you could probably land a younger RB/WR+a 1st for him soon as he gets a few solid games in. Maybe another pick depending on how well he does.

Barkley's 24 years old... There's zero to no chance doesn't become a Top 10 back again within the next year or 1.5 I'd be willing to bet.

It's hard to imagine Barkley's value ever falling below a midfirst (outside of injury) so your pick value is still somewhat insulated and you have a good chance to turn your um, 'something small' into something better + maybe a 2nd on top of the 1st.