Derrick Henry?

[SWIMball]

Received an offer this morning:

Send: Carson, Diontae, 22 1st
Receive: Derrick Henry

I'm shooting for a title this year, but not sure if this is too much to pay for a 27 year old RB. Thoughts?

[never_punts]

I think that's probably the type of return an owner is going to want for Henry, but I would not pay all that. His upside is capped because of passing game usage and there's still a chance that this is the year he hits that wall. It's just too much to pay IMO even for a contender. I think there are other guys you can get at RB that can help your team for a more reasonable price. I'd rather try to pay up for a stud like Barkley or get a cheaper guy for a more reasonable price.

[Gator Sens]

This certainly hurts your WR core and puts hope into Fuller and Beckham which is very risky, but I can see the value here only because you are going with all in. Long term, I don't think this is a great deal. Johnson could still gain more value and the 1st absolutely will while the only direction from here is down for Henry. Henry is a great player but he is 27 and will have very little value market coming out of this year. Again, I think Henry helps one of your flex spots and helps your run this year pending health of him and your top two WR's. Long term, not great.

[Z$$$]

Henry has to hit a wall at some point. He may just break through it though, but I’d be scared it would be this year and you’d be giving up a lot of a chance.

[bennythedog93]

As the others stated, I’d hold here.

[Anteaters]

As a Henry owner, that deal makes up the minimum parameters of what I'd be looking for. I'd need a lesser-than-Henry RB to give me a warm body at the position - definitely has to be a 1st rounder in the deal - and I don't think a low-end WR2 is too much of an addition to ask for. I'd probably want a high WR2 or a low-end WR1.

Yes, there risk that Henry might have only 1 or 2 years left, but that championship window isn't going to be open forever. The price for a younger top6RB (JT/Barkley) is going to be a lot higher. For a championship-caliber team, the difference between Carson and Henry might just be a semi-final knockout and a trophy. Let's not forget that Henry more than doubled Carson's fantasy points in 2020. Starting Dak(orAaron)/JT/Mixon/Henry/TMc/Godwin/Fuller/Kelce looks very strong to me. I wouldn't worry much about losing Diontae.

It's a tough call initially. What makes it easier for me is to slot the likelihood of that 1st. If you're a contender and you add Henry, we're not talking about a 1.02 pick, but more like a 1.10 or worse. When you look at it that way, a low-end WR2 + a borderline (maybe mid) RB2 with a year or two left + 1.10 seems like an severe underpay for Henry.

[SWIMball]

As a Henry owner, that deal makes up the minimum parameters of what I'd be looking for. I'd need a lesser-than-Henry RB to give me a warm body at the position - definitely has to be a 1st rounder in the deal - and I don't think a low-end WR2 is too much of an addition to ask for. I'd probably want a high WR2 or a low-end WR1.

Yes, there risk that Henry might have only 1 or 2 years left, but that championship window isn't going to be open forever. The price for a younger top6RB (JT/Barkley) is going to be a lot higher. For a championship-caliber team, the difference between Carson and Henry might just be a semi-final knockout and a trophy. Let's not forget that Henry more than doubled Carson's fantasy points in 2020. Starting Dak(orAaron)/JT/Mixon/Henry/TMc/Godwin/Fuller/Kelce looks very strong to me. I wouldn't worry much about losing Diontae.

It's a tough call initially. What makes it easier for me is to slot the likelihood of that 1st. If you're a contender and you add Henry, we're not talking about a 1.02 pick, but more like a 1.10 or worse. When you look at it that way, a low-end WR2 + a borderline (maybe mid) RB2 with a year or two left + 1.10 seems like an severe underpay for Henry.

I suppose I should have mentioned, the 1st isn't actually my own, but that of a team that is a not a contender, likely 1.04-6 range if I had to guess right now. I initially thought about countering with my 23 1st instead for that reason

[Anteaters]

Yeah, I got mixed up on which direction that 1st was going.

If that's what you're sending, I don't think it's too much if you think you have a real contender. If Henry gets close to his 2020 production, he's going to be much better for you than Carson. As much as everyone else loves Diontae, I think we have to keep in mind he is still only a low-end WR2 borderline WR3 - in a pack of about 15-25 receivers separated by less than 1.5 ppg. Whether it's Diontae, Landry, Mike Williams or MVS, those guys are replaceable. There aren't many RBs that have the potential to produce like Henry. He's a game changer.

If the cost to improve from Carson to Henry is a replaceable WR (whom you can replace from your current roster with OBJ/Fuller/Kirk) and a '22 1.06 ... and you think that move gives you a good shot at the trophy ... that's a move I'd make.