Pitts or Chase

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Pitts or Chase at 1.06 with this roster?

Pitts
6
21%
Chase
22
79%
 
Total votes: 28

UkColt
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Pitts or Chase

Postby UkColt » Mon May 10, 2021 6:21 am

Own the 1.06 and both still on the board in SFlex. I currently have:

WR: Godwin, Jeudy, Landry, Juju, Campbell, Washington,
TE: Engram, Everett, Higbee, Howard

Need is more at TE, but is picking Pitts over Chase mad? It's 0.5 PPR, no TE premium, but extra points for 1st down catches.
Superflex, PPR. Start 1-2QB, 2-4RB, 3-5WR & 1-2TE

QB: Watson, Herbert, Lance, Bridgewater, Minshew
RB: McCaffrey, Ekeler, Hines, Fournette, Hyde, J Williams,
WR: Diggs, Lamb, Hilton, Mims, Crowder, Reynolds, G Davis, Washington, Watkins
TE: Kittle, Hooper

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Re: Pitts or Chase

Postby Gator Sens » Mon May 10, 2021 6:21 am

Chase easily between the two.

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Re: Pitts or Chase

Postby Anteaters » Mon May 10, 2021 6:28 am

The next hyped up 1st round TE to be a top 3 fantasy player at that position within his first 3 years will be the first to ever do so.
2019: Hock, Fant
2018: Hurst
2017: OJHoward, Engram, NJoku
2014: Ebron
2013: Eifert (after, Greshem, Cincy's previous 1st rd TE savior busted)
2010: Greshem
2006: Vernon Davis
etc etc etc

Every few years we hear "It's different with THIS tight end because ..." but it's never the breakout stupendous player we're sold.

Take Chase and enjoy the rewards. If your roster is absolutely rock solid at every position, sure, go ahead and spend that high 1st to take a chance on the newest TE savior.
TEAM 1:
12 Team ppr w/20 keepers - start 1QB 2RB 3WR 1TE 1FLX 6IDP 1DEF
QB: Tua, Lamar, Levis
RB: Etienne, Pacheco, JavonteWms, JFord, CEH
WR: Lamb, JChase, Waddle, Pickens, Tre Tucker, Q Johnston
TE: Goedert, Friermuth
DEF: Cowboys, Ravens
IDP:(LB) Bolton, Greenlaw; (DE/DL) ZCollins, BJHill; (S/CB) Pitre, Bates, Witherspoon
IR: Mike Williams (WR), Joey Bosa (DL)
2023 & 2022 Champion: 2020 third place: 2019 Champion

TEAM 2:
14 Team 30roster SF/ppr/TEP - QB/RB/WR/TE/5FLX/SF
QB: Tua, CJStroud, Carr, AOC, MWhite, Lock
RB: Etienne, Stevenson, GusE, AJD, Singletary, CEH, Spiller
WR: Amon-Ra, Kirk, Dell, Thielen, Gallup, Ch Jones
TE: Andrews, Waller, Taysom, Smythe, WMallory, JOliver
2023 semifinals loser

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Re: Pitts or Chase

Postby CGW » Mon May 10, 2021 7:29 am

Chase unless its TE premium of some sort

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Re: Pitts or Chase

Postby Mtt33 » Mon May 10, 2021 7:40 am

Anteaters wrote: Mon May 10, 2021 6:28 am The next hyped up 1st round TE to be a top 3 fantasy player at that position within his first 3 years will be the first to ever do so.
2019: Hock, Fant
2018: Hurst
2017: OJHoward, Engram, NJoku
2014: Ebron
2013: Eifert (after, Greshem, Cincy's previous 1st rd TE savior busted)
2010: Greshem
2006: Vernon Davis
etc etc etc

Every few years we hear "It's different with THIS tight end because ..." but it's never the breakout stupendous player we're sold.

Take Chase and enjoy the rewards. If your roster is absolutely rock solid at every position, sure, go ahead and spend that high 1st to take a chance on the newest TE savior.
Chase for me out of the 2 to be clear, but out of that entire list none of them are comparable to pitts except for Davis and the game is completely changed since then. Pitts is basically a receiver, he was drafted 4 overall, teams are throwing more than ever. Not allowing your evaluations to change for a transcendent talent is more of a mistake IMO than drafting a Te when none has done it before.

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Re: Pitts or Chase

Postby CGW » Mon May 10, 2021 7:41 am

Mtt33 wrote: Mon May 10, 2021 7:40 am
Anteaters wrote: Mon May 10, 2021 6:28 am The next hyped up 1st round TE to be a top 3 fantasy player at that position within his first 3 years will be the first to ever do so.
2019: Hock, Fant
2018: Hurst
2017: OJHoward, Engram, NJoku
2014: Ebron
2013: Eifert (after, Greshem, Cincy's previous 1st rd TE savior busted)
2010: Greshem
2006: Vernon Davis
etc etc etc

Every few years we hear "It's different with THIS tight end because ..." but it's never the breakout stupendous player we're sold.

Take Chase and enjoy the rewards. If your roster is absolutely rock solid at every position, sure, go ahead and spend that high 1st to take a chance on the newest TE savior.
Chase for me out of the 2 to be clear, but out of that entire list none of them are comparable to pitts except for Davis and the game is completely changed since then. Pitts is basically a receiver, he was drafted 4 overall, teams are throwing more than ever. Not allowing your evaluations to change for a transcendent talent is more of a mistake IMO than drafting a Te when none has done it before.
Like mtt33 said, it's different this time. :D

I still like Chase though.

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Re: Pitts or Chase

Postby Anteaters » Mon May 10, 2021 9:49 am

Mtt33 wrote: Mon May 10, 2021 7:40 am
Anteaters wrote: Mon May 10, 2021 6:28 am The next hyped up 1st round TE to be a top 3 fantasy player at that position within his first 3 years will be the first to ever do so.
2019: Hock, Fant
2018: Hurst
2017: OJHoward, Engram, NJoku
2014: Ebron
2013: Eifert (after, Greshem, Cincy's previous 1st rd TE savior busted)
2010: Greshem
2006: Vernon Davis
etc etc etc

Every few years we hear "It's different with THIS tight end because ..." but it's never the breakout stupendous player we're sold.

Take Chase and enjoy the rewards. If your roster is absolutely rock solid at every position, sure, go ahead and spend that high 1st to take a chance on the newest TE savior.
Chase for me out of the 2 to be clear, but out of that entire list none of them are comparable to pitts except for Davis and the game is completely changed since then. Pitts is basically a receiver, he was drafted 4 overall, teams are throwing more than ever. Not allowing your evaluations to change for a transcendent talent is more of a mistake IMO than drafting a Te when none has done it before.
Some of the TEs mentioned above were very high picks. Hock was 1.08, Ebron was 1.10 and Davis was 6th.

I know people are saying Pitts is "special" and the position is changing, but that sounds a lot like trying to time the stock market and it's nearly as impossible. I think the much safer picks are the top 2-3 RBs and top 2-3 WRs, and I'm okay potentially missing out on a once-in-a-generation lucky strike if Chase is the other option. I just have a hard time trusting myself to be right choosing which rookie is going to do that thing that has never been done before AND revolutionize his position forever more. I don't think I'm smart enough to see that one coming.
TEAM 1:
12 Team ppr w/20 keepers - start 1QB 2RB 3WR 1TE 1FLX 6IDP 1DEF
QB: Tua, Lamar, Levis
RB: Etienne, Pacheco, JavonteWms, JFord, CEH
WR: Lamb, JChase, Waddle, Pickens, Tre Tucker, Q Johnston
TE: Goedert, Friermuth
DEF: Cowboys, Ravens
IDP:(LB) Bolton, Greenlaw; (DE/DL) ZCollins, BJHill; (S/CB) Pitre, Bates, Witherspoon
IR: Mike Williams (WR), Joey Bosa (DL)
2023 & 2022 Champion: 2020 third place: 2019 Champion

TEAM 2:
14 Team 30roster SF/ppr/TEP - QB/RB/WR/TE/5FLX/SF
QB: Tua, CJStroud, Carr, AOC, MWhite, Lock
RB: Etienne, Stevenson, GusE, AJD, Singletary, CEH, Spiller
WR: Amon-Ra, Kirk, Dell, Thielen, Gallup, Ch Jones
TE: Andrews, Waller, Taysom, Smythe, WMallory, JOliver
2023 semifinals loser

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Re: Pitts or Chase

Postby StripesOfKC » Mon May 10, 2021 9:56 am

Chase

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Re: Pitts or Chase

Postby atlmoneyman » Mon May 10, 2021 10:03 am

The smart play is Chase.

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Re: Pitts or Chase

Postby murphysxm » Mon May 10, 2021 10:08 am

Anteaters wrote: Mon May 10, 2021 9:49 am Some of the TEs mentioned above were very high picks. Hock was 1.08, Ebron was 1.10 and Davis was 6th.

I know people are saying Pitts is "special" and the position is changing, but that sounds a lot like trying to time the stock market and it's nearly as impossible. I think the much safer picks are the top 2-3 RBs and top 2-3 WRs, and I'm okay potentially missing out on a once-in-a-generation lucky strike if Chase is the other option. I just have a hard time trusting myself to be right choosing which rookie is going to do that thing that has never been done before AND revolutionize his position forever more. I don't think I'm smart enough to see that one coming.
Of the top 10 WR's taken in 2020 rookie drafts, maybe half the owners are happy with their pick. To make it seem like TE is the only position we misdraft is not logical to me. Could he miss, sure. Could he take 2-3 years to develop, sure. That can be said for every single pick, why be scared because of his position? Chase is literally the only non QB in this draft I feel confident will be a stud.
I am just a guy sharing some thoughts

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Re: Pitts or Chase

Postby Mtt33 » Mon May 10, 2021 10:10 am

Anteaters wrote: Mon May 10, 2021 9:49 am
Mtt33 wrote: Mon May 10, 2021 7:40 am
Anteaters wrote: Mon May 10, 2021 6:28 am The next hyped up 1st round TE to be a top 3 fantasy player at that position within his first 3 years will be the first to ever do so.
2019: Hock, Fant
2018: Hurst
2017: OJHoward, Engram, NJoku
2014: Ebron
2013: Eifert (after, Greshem, Cincy's previous 1st rd TE savior busted)
2010: Greshem
2006: Vernon Davis
etc etc etc

Every few years we hear "It's different with THIS tight end because ..." but it's never the breakout stupendous player we're sold.

Take Chase and enjoy the rewards. If your roster is absolutely rock solid at every position, sure, go ahead and spend that high 1st to take a chance on the newest TE savior.
Chase for me out of the 2 to be clear, but out of that entire list none of them are comparable to pitts except for Davis and the game is completely changed since then. Pitts is basically a receiver, he was drafted 4 overall, teams are throwing more than ever. Not allowing your evaluations to change for a transcendent talent is more of a mistake IMO than drafting a Te when none has done it before.
Some of the TEs mentioned above were very high picks. Hock was 1.08, Ebron was 1.10 and Davis was 6th.

I know people are saying Pitts is "special" and the position is changing, but that sounds a lot like trying to time the stock market and it's nearly as impossible. I think the much safer picks are the top 2-3 RBs and top 2-3 WRs, and I'm okay potentially missing out on a once-in-a-generation lucky strike if Chase is the other option. I just have a hard time trusting myself to be right choosing which rookie is going to do that thing that has never been done before AND revolutionize his position forever more. I don't think I'm smart enough to see that one coming.
I certainly don’t blame you for just fading him since the options around him are good as well, (I have chase over him unless it’s 2ppr for te) but speaking to the hock example- he’s an in-line all around TE and was drafted from memory toward the end of the 1st in rookie drafts. Lots of people had fant ahead of him who wasn’t close to the polished player pitts is. Ebron may be a similar player comp player wise but wasn’t close to the talent.

One of my main arguments though is that I think a lot of people point to the potential for him to bust but seem to ignore the high bust rate of other positions. TE has the highest fantasy bust rate by far but with the game changing and him being a transcendent talent, I’m comfortable with that risk at the right spot. Passing on him for Williams/smith/waddle is a mistake in my opinion, and I still like all 3 of those players.

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Re: Pitts or Chase

Postby Anteaters » Mon May 10, 2021 2:10 pm

Mtt33 wrote: Mon May 10, 2021 10:10 am One of my main arguments though is that I think a lot of people point to the potential for him to bust but seem to ignore the high bust rate of other positions. TE has the highest fantasy bust rate by far but with the game changing and him being a transcendent talent, I’m comfortable with that risk at the right spot. Passing on him for Williams/smith/waddle is a mistake in my opinion, and I still like all 3 of those players.
It's not so much that I think Pitts will be a bust. I think he'll be a good fantasy TE.

My problem is I don't think a good fantasy TE is worth a top 8 fantasy pick, usually not a first round pick at all. My concession is that I think Pitts can be a good bet for TE success and I'll move him into the last few 1st round picks, for most average dynasty team builds that's maybe 1.10 and later in 1qb leagues.

Other positions bust. The question isn't whether I'd rather have Pitts or Reagor at 1.06. The real question is, would I rather have the chance to draft JJefferson or Gibson or Dobbins or Akers or Lamb. The real question is would you rather have the chance to draft the next Hock or the next Akers or Lamb.

For me to succeed on a WR/RB selection at 1.05, I just need to get average lucky with my pick and draft a top10-15 future producer. For me to succeed by choosing Pitts, I have to get once-in-a-lifetime lucky and hope he becomes the best TE in the history of the NFL. That's a lot to ask. If Pitts is a top5 TE fantasy talent, he's Hock. Hock is marginally better than Goedert and Gesicki and Fant. That's not good enough to pass on the chance to get a Lamb or Akers - not in my book.
TEAM 1:
12 Team ppr w/20 keepers - start 1QB 2RB 3WR 1TE 1FLX 6IDP 1DEF
QB: Tua, Lamar, Levis
RB: Etienne, Pacheco, JavonteWms, JFord, CEH
WR: Lamb, JChase, Waddle, Pickens, Tre Tucker, Q Johnston
TE: Goedert, Friermuth
DEF: Cowboys, Ravens
IDP:(LB) Bolton, Greenlaw; (DE/DL) ZCollins, BJHill; (S/CB) Pitre, Bates, Witherspoon
IR: Mike Williams (WR), Joey Bosa (DL)
2023 & 2022 Champion: 2020 third place: 2019 Champion

TEAM 2:
14 Team 30roster SF/ppr/TEP - QB/RB/WR/TE/5FLX/SF
QB: Tua, CJStroud, Carr, AOC, MWhite, Lock
RB: Etienne, Stevenson, GusE, AJD, Singletary, CEH, Spiller
WR: Amon-Ra, Kirk, Dell, Thielen, Gallup, Ch Jones
TE: Andrews, Waller, Taysom, Smythe, WMallory, JOliver
2023 semifinals loser

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Re: Pitts or Chase

Postby DynastyKing23 » Mon May 10, 2021 2:55 pm

Its hard for me to choose between Pitts and Chase, both are exceptional talents in great situations. Both have concerns as well. Chase opted out for covid 19, history hasn't been kind to wrs who opt out a year and come back. Pitts only real concern is the fact that he's a TE and the history of early round TEs. I think it's easy to over look both issues here though. Pitts isn't like a TE, he's more like a WR with a TE designation. If he declared as a WR I'd prob take chase first and him second. I'd still take him over waddle, smith, Bateman, etc. Chase opted out for covid, as did many players, and I think this year is an exception that we can't pull past data over to compare as easily.

It's hard to ignore Chase playing with an elite young qb he developed chemistry with in college. Pitts can provide such a positional advantage at TE and playing in Atl with Ryan is an amazing landing spot for him.

I think it comes down to risk tolerance. Pitts is slightly riskier but with a much higher reward IMO and a very safe floor. Chase is more likely to contribute this year, and probably a safer bet overall. You don't win championships by playing it safe, that gets you middle of the pack with a midround pick every year. I have the 2nd and 3rd pick and the guy with the 1st is taking chase making my decision easy. Pitts and Harris for me.
12 team PPR 1QB, 2RB, 2WR, 1TE, 2 FLEX

QB- Burrow, Murray, Stafford, G Smith
RB- CMC, Taylor, Swift, Jacobs, B Hall, Gibbs, A Jones, Najee
WR- Kupp, AJB, ARSB, K Allen, Pittman, London, Puka, Dell
TE- Kelce, Hockenson, Pitts

Picks

2024 2nd, (2)3rd, 5th
2025 1st, (2)3rd, 5th
2025 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th


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