Najee Harris V. Ja'Marr Chase at 1.01 (knowing landing spots)

This is the place for team advice - should I make this trade, should I draft that player, etc.

Najee V. Ja'Marr

Harris (PIT)
40
33%
Chase (CIN)
82
67%
 
Total votes: 122

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Re: Najee Harris V. Ja'Marr Chase at 1.01 (knowing landing spots)

Postby MaddMadden » Mon May 03, 2021 12:33 pm

Moving Higgins once the offense heats up wouldn't be an awful idea if you draft Chase either.
10 team half-PPR league. Starters: QB, 2RB, 2WR, TE, 2FLEX, K, 2DE, DT, 2LB, S, CB, 2IDP. 40man roster. Salary Cap pinned to NFL.

2022 picks: 1st, 3rd
2023 picks: 2 1st, 2 2nd, 3 3rd, 2 4ths

Players under contracts 2021 (years)
QB: K. Murray (3), T. Lance (4)
RB: S. Barkley (4), C. Edwards-Helaire (3+1), J. Jacobs (4), M. Davis (1), D. Henderson (1), AJ Dillon (3), Z. Moss (3), T. Pollard (2), T. Etienne (4)
WR: DK Metcalf (2), C. Ridley (2), T. McLaurin (2), J. Chase (4), R. Bateman (4), E. Moore (4), R. Moore (4), J. Reagor (3), B. Edwards (3), KJ Hamler (3)
TE: G. Kittle (3), A. Trautman (3)
K: Y. Koo (1)
DE: D. Hunter (1), C. Young (3+1), J. Bosa (2), J. Allen (2), K. Paye (4)
DT: A. Donald (2), Q. Williams (3)
LB: D. Leonard (2), R. Smith (3), F. Warner (3) P. Queen (3), I. Simmons (3), J. Davis (4)
S: D. James (2), R. Grant (4)
CB: K. Moore (2)

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Re: Najee Harris V. Ja'Marr Chase at 1.01 (knowing landing spots)

Postby Vcize » Mon May 03, 2021 1:20 pm

Anteaters wrote: Fri Apr 30, 2021 11:58 pm
MaddMadden wrote: Fri Apr 30, 2021 5:37 pm Is hit rate on top 5 WRs that high, though?
2020: Jeudy, Lamb, Reagor, Ruggs, JJefferson
2019: DKMetcalf, N'KHarry, AJBrown, MarqBrown, Hakeem Butler
2018: DJMoore, Ridley, CKirk, Sutton, JamesWashington
2017: Corey Davis, Mike Williams, Juju, John Ross, Zay Jones

After the NFL draft of 2017, one fantasy site said this about Corey Davis: "Wide receivers have a longer dynasty shelf life than running backs," and used that to rank him the #1 fantasy rookie option over CMC, Mixon, and Dalvin Cook. It seems a lot of people are still thinking like that.

The hit rate is decent as far as providing useful fantasy production in the WR2-WR3 range. I wouldn't say the hit rate for top5 WRs outweighs the opportunity to draft a surefire RB1. I'd rather have a strong RB1 for 5 years than DJM or Jeudy or CoreyDavis for 10 years.

Of course, it all depends on team build. But if I had a gaping hole at RB, there's no way I'm passing Harris this season if I have a chance to draft him.
I figured he meant WRs drafted in the top 5 of the NFL draft.
12 Team FFPC TE Premium
QB: Herbert, Brady
RB: Barkley, Mixon, Jav Williams, Pierce, Drake
WR: Jefferson, AJ Brown, Metcalf, Hopkins, Peoples-Jones
TE: Kittle, Goedert

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Re: Najee Harris V. Ja'Marr Chase at 1.01 (knowing landing spots)

Postby MaddMadden » Mon May 03, 2021 5:55 pm

Vcize wrote: Mon May 03, 2021 1:20 pm
Anteaters wrote: Fri Apr 30, 2021 11:58 pm
MaddMadden wrote: Fri Apr 30, 2021 5:37 pm Is hit rate on top 5 WRs that high, though?
2020: Jeudy, Lamb, Reagor, Ruggs, JJefferson
2019: DKMetcalf, N'KHarry, AJBrown, MarqBrown, Hakeem Butler
2018: DJMoore, Ridley, CKirk, Sutton, JamesWashington
2017: Corey Davis, Mike Williams, Juju, John Ross, Zay Jones

After the NFL draft of 2017, one fantasy site said this about Corey Davis: "Wide receivers have a longer dynasty shelf life than running backs," and used that to rank him the #1 fantasy rookie option over CMC, Mixon, and Dalvin Cook. It seems a lot of people are still thinking like that.

The hit rate is decent as far as providing useful fantasy production in the WR2-WR3 range. I wouldn't say the hit rate for top5 WRs outweighs the opportunity to draft a surefire RB1. I'd rather have a strong RB1 for 5 years than DJM or Jeudy or CoreyDavis for 10 years.

Of course, it all depends on team build. But if I had a gaping hole at RB, there's no way I'm passing Harris this season if I have a chance to draft him.
I figured he meant WRs drafted in the top 5 of the NFL draft.
Yeah that is what I meant. I dont think its a great track record. Chase did test insane and have a stellar season in 19, though.
10 team half-PPR league. Starters: QB, 2RB, 2WR, TE, 2FLEX, K, 2DE, DT, 2LB, S, CB, 2IDP. 40man roster. Salary Cap pinned to NFL.

2022 picks: 1st, 3rd
2023 picks: 2 1st, 2 2nd, 3 3rd, 2 4ths

Players under contracts 2021 (years)
QB: K. Murray (3), T. Lance (4)
RB: S. Barkley (4), C. Edwards-Helaire (3+1), J. Jacobs (4), M. Davis (1), D. Henderson (1), AJ Dillon (3), Z. Moss (3), T. Pollard (2), T. Etienne (4)
WR: DK Metcalf (2), C. Ridley (2), T. McLaurin (2), J. Chase (4), R. Bateman (4), E. Moore (4), R. Moore (4), J. Reagor (3), B. Edwards (3), KJ Hamler (3)
TE: G. Kittle (3), A. Trautman (3)
K: Y. Koo (1)
DE: D. Hunter (1), C. Young (3+1), J. Bosa (2), J. Allen (2), K. Paye (4)
DT: A. Donald (2), Q. Williams (3)
LB: D. Leonard (2), R. Smith (3), F. Warner (3) P. Queen (3), I. Simmons (3), J. Davis (4)
S: D. James (2), R. Grant (4)
CB: K. Moore (2)

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Re: Najee Harris V. Ja'Marr Chase at 1.01 (knowing landing spots)

Postby Vcize » Mon May 03, 2021 8:41 pm

MaddMadden wrote: Mon May 03, 2021 5:55 pm
Vcize wrote: Mon May 03, 2021 1:20 pm
Anteaters wrote: Fri Apr 30, 2021 11:58 pm

2020: Jeudy, Lamb, Reagor, Ruggs, JJefferson
2019: DKMetcalf, N'KHarry, AJBrown, MarqBrown, Hakeem Butler
2018: DJMoore, Ridley, CKirk, Sutton, JamesWashington
2017: Corey Davis, Mike Williams, Juju, John Ross, Zay Jones

After the NFL draft of 2017, one fantasy site said this about Corey Davis: "Wide receivers have a longer dynasty shelf life than running backs," and used that to rank him the #1 fantasy rookie option over CMC, Mixon, and Dalvin Cook. It seems a lot of people are still thinking like that.

The hit rate is decent as far as providing useful fantasy production in the WR2-WR3 range. I wouldn't say the hit rate for top5 WRs outweighs the opportunity to draft a surefire RB1. I'd rather have a strong RB1 for 5 years than DJM or Jeudy or CoreyDavis for 10 years.

Of course, it all depends on team build. But if I had a gaping hole at RB, there's no way I'm passing Harris this season if I have a chance to draft him.
I figured he meant WRs drafted in the top 5 of the NFL draft.
Yeah that is what I meant. I dont think its a great track record. Chase did test insane and have a stellar season in 19, though.
Here's the list, fwiw. Since 2000.

Corey Davis
Amari Cooper
Sammy Watkins
Justin Blackmon
AJ Green
Calvin Johnson
Braylon Edwards
Larry Fitzgerald
Charles Rodgers
Andre Johnson
Peter Warrick
12 Team FFPC TE Premium
QB: Herbert, Brady
RB: Barkley, Mixon, Jav Williams, Pierce, Drake
WR: Jefferson, AJ Brown, Metcalf, Hopkins, Peoples-Jones
TE: Kittle, Goedert

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Re: Najee Harris V. Ja'Marr Chase at 1.01 (knowing landing spots)

Postby kiszl » Tue May 04, 2021 4:53 am

Im still unsure of who to take myself. I think I have a draft crush on Najee and its not letting me see how good of a prospect Chase really is. In this case we just gotta look at the facts.

Chase is graded as a future pro-bowler where Najee is a serviceable starter.
Chase is going to be reunited with his QB who in his own right is extremely talented.
Najee goes to a team with a bad O-line and an aging qb who maybe has two seasons at best.
Chase is 21 and Najee is 23 at a position that is extremely age and usage sensitive.
Najee can probably give you top 15 production right away as opposed to Chase who if he cracks the top 30 will be great, but since this is DYNASTY you gotta go with the prospect thats gonna do more for you in the long term
10 team half ppr 1qb 2rb 2wr 1te 2 flex
Russel Wilson, Jameis Winston, Jimmy Garoppolo, Sam Darnold, Taysom Hill
Justin Jefferson, Brandon Aiyuk, Courtland Sutton, D.J Moore, Tyler Boyd, Terrace Marshall, TY Hilton, Allen Lazard, Mike Williams, Tim Patrick
Dalvin Cook, Ezekiel Elliott, Cam Akers, Najee Harris, Raheem Mostert, Philip Lindsay, AJ Dillon, Zack Moss
Noah Fant, Tim Tebow, O.J Howard
Taxi Squad: T Lance, D People-Jones, A Okwuegbunam, F Darby, J Jefferson, K Trask, R Stevenson, T Tremble
2022: 1, 2, 5, 6, 7
2023: 1, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 5, 6, 7
2024: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7

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Re: Najee Harris V. Ja'Marr Chase at 1.01 (knowing landing spots)

Postby Adam_172 » Tue May 04, 2021 4:58 am

Toss-up - roll a dice.
TEAM 1
Dynasty PPR 1QB (12 Team League)

QB - Fields, Pickett, Howell.
RB - Gibbs, R. White, Swift, Javonte Williams, Charbonnet, Allegier, Tank Bigsby, Penny, Mack.
WR - Nacua, Dell, Hollywood, Jameson Williams, Burks, Mooney, Atwell, Melton, Phillips, Washington, Lazard, Gage.
TE - Ferguson, Mayer, Knox.
DEF - Bills, Vikings.

Rookie Picks: 1.02, 1.13 (extra pick), 2.02, 3.02, 4.02 and 5.02.


TEAM 2
Dynasty PPR - SuperFlex and TE Prem. (16 teams)

QB - Prescott, Pickett, Ridder, Mariota, Mullins, Willis.
RB - Walker III, R. White, Montgomery, Singletary, R. Jones, Mack, Hull, Sermon.
WR - Adams, Higgins, Watson, Meyers, Gabe Davis, W. Robinson, Dotson, Raymond, ARob.
TE - McBride, H. Henry, B. Jordan, Bates, B. Hopkins.

Rookie Picks: 2.14 and 3.14.

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Re: Najee Harris V. Ja'Marr Chase at 1.01 (knowing landing spots)

Postby stigskol » Tue May 04, 2021 6:53 am

Chase.
TEAM 1 - 12 Person PPR.
20 player roster. 15 Keepers. 5 go back in for a rookie draft.
1 PPR.

QB: Burrow, Tua
RB: ETN, Swift, Dobbins, Mattison, Ty Chandler
WR: Metcalf, Sutton, DJ Moore, Higgins, waddle, Dotson, Campbell, Meyers, Collins, Osborn
TE: Hockenson, Conklin
D: niners
K: Joseph

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Re: Najee Harris V. Ja'Marr Chase at 1.01 (knowing landing spots)

Postby MaddMadden » Tue May 04, 2021 8:24 am

With almost 100 votes in, it is almost 2-to-1 Chase.

I prefer Chase myself, but when I posted this I thought that it would be more of a toss up as some have indicated.

Let's see if we can hit 100 votes!
10 team half-PPR league. Starters: QB, 2RB, 2WR, TE, 2FLEX, K, 2DE, DT, 2LB, S, CB, 2IDP. 40man roster. Salary Cap pinned to NFL.

2022 picks: 1st, 3rd
2023 picks: 2 1st, 2 2nd, 3 3rd, 2 4ths

Players under contracts 2021 (years)
QB: K. Murray (3), T. Lance (4)
RB: S. Barkley (4), C. Edwards-Helaire (3+1), J. Jacobs (4), M. Davis (1), D. Henderson (1), AJ Dillon (3), Z. Moss (3), T. Pollard (2), T. Etienne (4)
WR: DK Metcalf (2), C. Ridley (2), T. McLaurin (2), J. Chase (4), R. Bateman (4), E. Moore (4), R. Moore (4), J. Reagor (3), B. Edwards (3), KJ Hamler (3)
TE: G. Kittle (3), A. Trautman (3)
K: Y. Koo (1)
DE: D. Hunter (1), C. Young (3+1), J. Bosa (2), J. Allen (2), K. Paye (4)
DT: A. Donald (2), Q. Williams (3)
LB: D. Leonard (2), R. Smith (3), F. Warner (3) P. Queen (3), I. Simmons (3), J. Davis (4)
S: D. James (2), R. Grant (4)
CB: K. Moore (2)

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Re: Najee Harris V. Ja'Marr Chase at 1.01 (knowing landing spots)

Postby Anteaters » Tue May 04, 2021 8:37 am

Vcize wrote: Mon May 03, 2021 1:20 pm
Anteaters wrote: Fri Apr 30, 2021 11:58 pm
MaddMadden wrote: Fri Apr 30, 2021 5:37 pm Is hit rate on top 5 WRs that high, though?
2020: Jeudy, Lamb, Reagor, Ruggs, JJefferson
2019: DKMetcalf, N'KHarry, AJBrown, MarqBrown, Hakeem Butler
2018: DJMoore, Ridley, CKirk, Sutton, JamesWashington
2017: Corey Davis, Mike Williams, Juju, John Ross, Zay Jones

After the NFL draft of 2017, one fantasy site said this about Corey Davis: "Wide receivers have a longer dynasty shelf life than running backs," and used that to rank him the #1 fantasy rookie option over CMC, Mixon, and Dalvin Cook. It seems a lot of people are still thinking like that.

The hit rate is decent as far as providing useful fantasy production in the WR2-WR3 range. I wouldn't say the hit rate for top5 WRs outweighs the opportunity to draft a surefire RB1. I'd rather have a strong RB1 for 5 years than DJM or Jeudy or CoreyDavis for 10 years.

Of course, it all depends on team build. But if I had a gaping hole at RB, there's no way I'm passing Harris this season if I have a chance to draft him.
I figured he meant WRs drafted in the top 5 of the NFL draft.
oops :oops:
Ok, me being me, I gotta check out recent history. I'll list those in the first 5 picks, or the first WR chosen if none in the top 5.

2020: Ruggs #12
2019: MarBrown #25
2018: DJMoore #24
2017: CDavis #5, MikeWilliams #7
2016: CColeman #15
2015: ACooper #4, KevinWhite #7
2014: SWatkins #4, MEvans #7
2013: Tavon Auston #8
2012: Justin Blackmon #5

Not the most impressive list of WRs drafted over the past 9 years. In fact, of the dozen, I'd say only 3 have put in careers worthy of a top-8 fantasy pick. Obviously, someone back in 2012 felt the same way about Blackmon as some feel about Chase now. I'm not saying Chase is going to be a bust, but this list proves draft position for a WR doesn't come close to guaranteeing quality fantasy stats.
TEAM 1:
12 Team ppr w/20 keepers - start 1QB 2RB 3WR 1TE 1FLX 6IDP 1DEF
QB: Tua, Lamar, Levis
RB: Etienne, Pacheco, JavonteWms, JFord, CEH
WR: Lamb, JChase, Waddle, Pickens, Tre Tucker, Q Johnston
TE: Goedert, Friermuth
DEF: Cowboys, Ravens
IDP:(LB) Bolton, Greenlaw; (DE/DL) ZCollins, BJHill; (S/CB) Pitre, Bates, Witherspoon
IR: Mike Williams (WR), Joey Bosa (DL)
2023 & 2022 Champion: 2020 third place: 2019 Champion

TEAM 2:
14 Team 30roster SF/ppr/TEP - QB/RB/WR/TE/5FLX/SF
QB: Tua, CJStroud, Carr, AOC, MWhite, Lock
RB: Etienne, Stevenson, GusE, AJD, Singletary, CEH, Spiller
WR: Amon-Ra, Kirk, Dell, Thielen, Gallup, Ch Jones
TE: Andrews, Waller, Taysom, Smythe, WMallory, JOliver
2023 semifinals loser

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Re: Najee Harris V. Ja'Marr Chase at 1.01 (knowing landing spots)

Postby murphysxm » Tue May 04, 2021 9:03 am

Anteaters wrote: Tue May 04, 2021 8:37 am oops :oops:
Ok, me being me, I gotta check out recent history. I'll list those in the first 5 picks, or the first WR chosen if none in the top 5.

2020: Ruggs #12
2019: MarBrown #25
2018: DJMoore #24
2017: CDavis #5, MikeWilliams #7
2016: CColeman #15
2015: ACooper #4, KevinWhite #7
2014: SWatkins #4, MEvans #7
2013: Tavon Auston #8
2012: Justin Blackmon #5

Not the most impressive list of WRs drafted over the past 9 years. In fact, of the dozen, I'd say only 3 have put in careers worthy of a top-8 fantasy pick. Obviously, someone back in 2012 felt the same way about Blackmon as some feel about Chase now. I'm not saying Chase is going to be a bust, but this list proves draft position for a WR doesn't come close to guaranteeing quality fantasy stats.
This to me, is noise. I am completely uninterested in what happened in the past. Chase is better than every reciever on this list. If he doesn't clear all their production I will be greatly surprised. He is the WR my eyes are most excited about coming out of college since Julio.
I am just a guy sharing some thoughts

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Re: Najee Harris V. Ja'Marr Chase at 1.01 (knowing landing spots)

Postby Anteaters » Tue May 04, 2021 9:04 am

Vcize wrote: Mon May 03, 2021 8:41 pm Here's the list, fwiw. Since 2000.

Corey Davis
Amari Cooper
Sammy Watkins
Justin Blackmon
AJ Green
Calvin Johnson
Braylon Edwards
Larry Fitzgerald
Charles Rodgers
Andre Johnson
Peter Warrick
That top-5 list has a hit rate of 5/11. Not as bad as I'd assumed.

With picks 3, 5 and 8, I won't face the Harris/Chase debate because I'm sure Harris (and ETN) will be gone by 3, but I'll have to decide whether to take Javonte/Waddle/DSmith/Pitts with pick 5&8. I don't really want Pitts that high, but if I go Chase+Javonte with 3/5, I really don't want to get another WR either.
TEAM 1:
12 Team ppr w/20 keepers - start 1QB 2RB 3WR 1TE 1FLX 6IDP 1DEF
QB: Tua, Lamar, Levis
RB: Etienne, Pacheco, JavonteWms, JFord, CEH
WR: Lamb, JChase, Waddle, Pickens, Tre Tucker, Q Johnston
TE: Goedert, Friermuth
DEF: Cowboys, Ravens
IDP:(LB) Bolton, Greenlaw; (DE/DL) ZCollins, BJHill; (S/CB) Pitre, Bates, Witherspoon
IR: Mike Williams (WR), Joey Bosa (DL)
2023 & 2022 Champion: 2020 third place: 2019 Champion

TEAM 2:
14 Team 30roster SF/ppr/TEP - QB/RB/WR/TE/5FLX/SF
QB: Tua, CJStroud, Carr, AOC, MWhite, Lock
RB: Etienne, Stevenson, GusE, AJD, Singletary, CEH, Spiller
WR: Amon-Ra, Kirk, Dell, Thielen, Gallup, Ch Jones
TE: Andrews, Waller, Taysom, Smythe, WMallory, JOliver
2023 semifinals loser

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Re: Najee Harris V. Ja'Marr Chase at 1.01 (knowing landing spots)

Postby epsilonindi » Tue May 04, 2021 9:51 am

I have this same question my self, owning the 1.01 and 1.03. I was solidly on Najee, as a big fan of his play style, combo of size, decent speed, and elusiveness for someone his size, but reading everyone's reviews of his landing spot after the draft (questions about the OL, and how long Ben will be there) I think have just recently pushed me to Chase. I also figure I'm in a rebuild, so Chase's youth is another plus for me (even though it's non-PPR). It's just hard to pass up a potential 3-down starting back in the league, because who knows when I'll get another opportunity to draft that again.
Team 1: 16-team dynasty, non-PPR, 20-man roster, $450 salary cap (w/o contracts) with salaries that increase 10% every year.
Starters: 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, K, DST

QB: Lamar Jackson ($23), Mac Jones ($15), Jake Browning ($10), Jameis Winston ($10)
RB: Bijan Robinson ($36), Breece Hall ($29), Zack Moss ($19), Justice Hill ($11)
WR: Ja'Marr Chase ($29), CeeDee Lamb ($32), Chris Olave ($21), Jahan Dotson ($21), Rashod Bateman ($20), Kendrick Bourne ($10)
TE: Dalton Schultz ($12), David Njoku ($30), Juwan Johnson ($11), Jonnu Smith ($10)
Taxi: QB Jake Haener, RB Chris Brooks, WR Dontayvion Wicks, WR Derius Davis, TE Brenton Strange

2022 Runner-up, 2023 Champion

2024 picks: Rd 1, Rd 2, Rd 3, Rd 5
2025 picks: Rd 1, Rd 3, Rd 5 (x2)
2026 picks: Rd 1, Rd 2, Rd 3, Rd 4, Rd 5

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Re: Najee Harris V. Ja'Marr Chase at 1.01 (knowing landing spots)

Postby Vcize » Tue May 04, 2021 10:02 am

Anteaters wrote: Tue May 04, 2021 9:04 am
Vcize wrote: Mon May 03, 2021 8:41 pm Here's the list, fwiw. Since 2000.

Corey Davis
Amari Cooper
Sammy Watkins
Justin Blackmon
AJ Green
Calvin Johnson
Braylon Edwards
Larry Fitzgerald
Charles Rodgers
Andre Johnson
Peter Warrick
That top-5 list has a hit rate of 5/11. Not as bad as I'd assumed.

With picks 3, 5 and 8, I won't face the Harris/Chase debate because I'm sure Harris (and ETN) will be gone by 3, but I'll have to decide whether to take Javonte/Waddle/DSmith/Pitts with pick 5&8. I don't really want Pitts that high, but if I go Chase+Javonte with 3/5, I really don't want to get another WR either.
I think it's a pretty interesting list that can be looked at from multiple angles. For a bullish take on it...

4/11 fantasy stud future NFL HoFs is a pretty good rate for that type of career return.

8/11 at least hit a point where they were top 3 dynasty WRs overall at some point. So if you're looking for appreciating value and willing to sell at the peak there is a very good chance you can pull that off.

Of the guys that failed, most had either major injury issues or off the field issues that contributed. Rodgers had two major injuries out of the gate, Watkins picked up a bunch of lower leg injuries that sapped his explosiveness, and Blackmon got kicked out of the league for off the field issues. I would say only Warrick and Davis were true flat out busts that simply weren't good enough to be drafted in the top 5.
Last edited by Vcize on Tue May 04, 2021 3:06 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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QB: Herbert, Brady
RB: Barkley, Mixon, Jav Williams, Pierce, Drake
WR: Jefferson, AJ Brown, Metcalf, Hopkins, Peoples-Jones
TE: Kittle, Goedert

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Re: Najee Harris V. Ja'Marr Chase at 1.01 (knowing landing spots)

Postby Anteaters » Tue May 04, 2021 1:05 pm

Vcize wrote: Tue May 04, 2021 10:02 am I think it's a pretty interesting list that can be looking at from multiple angles. For a bullish take on it...

4/11 fantasy stud future NFL HoFs is a pretty good rate for that type of career return.

8/11 at least hit a point where they were top 3 dynasty WRs overall at some point. So if you're looking for appreciating value and willing to sell at the peak there is a very good chance you can pull that off.

Of the guys that failed, most had either major injury issues or off the field issues that contributed. Rodgers had two major injuries out of the gate, Watkins picked up a bunch of lower leg injuries that sapped his explosiveness, and Blackmon got kicked out of the league for off the field issues. I would say only Warrick and Davis were true flat out busts that simply weren't good enough to be drafted in the top 5.
That's fair, and I agree.

I'm still uncomfortable tagging any unproven rookie with future NFL HoF status. So lets say assume Chase has 5-7 years of being in the WR5-WR15 range - first 2 season warming up to that level, then 3 years of cooling down again, for a 10-12 year career. I think that's a fairly optimistic outlook.

I understand those choosing Chase because they think Harris is going to struggle - if you don't think Harris is going to be that good, it makes sense not to draft him high. I don't think Harris is going to struggle. My angle comes from the fact I think Harris is going to be a 3-down RB with top 10 stats for 4-5 years starting in 2021. The real question is which is more valuable - that kind of RB or the kind of WR I mentioned in the previous paragraph. As hard as it is to get those kinds of RBs, I think I'm going with Harris.
TEAM 1:
12 Team ppr w/20 keepers - start 1QB 2RB 3WR 1TE 1FLX 6IDP 1DEF
QB: Tua, Lamar, Levis
RB: Etienne, Pacheco, JavonteWms, JFord, CEH
WR: Lamb, JChase, Waddle, Pickens, Tre Tucker, Q Johnston
TE: Goedert, Friermuth
DEF: Cowboys, Ravens
IDP:(LB) Bolton, Greenlaw; (DE/DL) ZCollins, BJHill; (S/CB) Pitre, Bates, Witherspoon
IR: Mike Williams (WR), Joey Bosa (DL)
2023 & 2022 Champion: 2020 third place: 2019 Champion

TEAM 2:
14 Team 30roster SF/ppr/TEP - QB/RB/WR/TE/5FLX/SF
QB: Tua, CJStroud, Carr, AOC, MWhite, Lock
RB: Etienne, Stevenson, GusE, AJD, Singletary, CEH, Spiller
WR: Amon-Ra, Kirk, Dell, Thielen, Gallup, Ch Jones
TE: Andrews, Waller, Taysom, Smythe, WMallory, JOliver
2023 semifinals loser

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Re: Najee Harris V. Ja'Marr Chase at 1.01 (knowing landing spots)

Postby SStory93 » Tue May 04, 2021 1:26 pm

Anteaters wrote: Tue May 04, 2021 1:05 pm
Vcize wrote: Tue May 04, 2021 10:02 am I think it's a pretty interesting list that can be looking at from multiple angles. For a bullish take on it...

4/11 fantasy stud future NFL HoFs is a pretty good rate for that type of career return.

8/11 at least hit a point where they were top 3 dynasty WRs overall at some point. So if you're looking for appreciating value and willing to sell at the peak there is a very good chance you can pull that off.

Of the guys that failed, most had either major injury issues or off the field issues that contributed. Rodgers had two major injuries out of the gate, Watkins picked up a bunch of lower leg injuries that sapped his explosiveness, and Blackmon got kicked out of the league for off the field issues. I would say only Warrick and Davis were true flat out busts that simply weren't good enough to be drafted in the top 5.
That's fair, and I agree.

I'm still uncomfortable tagging any unproven rookie with future NFL HoF status. So lets say assume Chase has 5-7 years of being in the WR5-WR15 range - first 2 season warming up to that level, then 3 years of cooling down again, for a 10-12 year career. I think that's a fairly optimistic outlook.

I understand those choosing Chase because they think Harris is going to struggle - if you don't think Harris is going to be that good, it makes sense not to draft him high. I don't think Harris is going to struggle. My angle comes from the fact I think Harris is going to be a 3-down RB with top 10 stats for 4-5 years starting in 2021. The real question is which is more valuable - that kind of RB or the kind of WR I mentioned in the previous paragraph. As hard as it is to get those kinds of RBs, I think I'm going with Harris.
The only caveat I would add to this is, looking at the list that was provided. There are only 1 player of Chase's caliber every 3 years or so (top 5 pick WR drafted). Where as a RB that has Najee skills comes out almost every year. Last year you had around 5 guys all on Najee level next year there are right now 2 back being considered (Hall, Spiller), the year after I believe the masses are talking about another studly RB draft.
12 Team PPR 2 Flex

QB: Hurts | Watson | Cousins
RB: Hall | Achane | Ekeler| Chubb | Kamara
WR: Hill | AJ Brown | Chase | Aiyuk
TE: Njoku | Waller

🏆: 2023


12 Team PPR SuperFlex IDP

QB: Hurts | Fields | Mayfield
RB: Bijan | Saquon | Ford
WR: Chase | Jefferson | AJ Brown | Metcalf | Puka | Collins
TE: Pitts | Freieemuth
DL: T. Watt
LB: White
DB: Adams | Kearse | Stingley

🏆: 2023

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