Najee Harris V. Ja'Marr Chase at 1.01 (knowing landing spots)

[MaddMadden]

Is hit rate on top 5 WRs that high, though?

[SoftwoodGrampian]

The RB

[Anteaters]

Is hit rate on top 5 WRs that high, though?

2020: Jeudy, Lamb, Reagor, Ruggs, JJefferson
2019: DKMetcalf, N'KHarry, AJBrown, MarqBrown, Hakeem Butler
2018: DJMoore, Ridley, CKirk, Sutton, JamesWashington
2017: Corey Davis, Mike Williams, Juju, John Ross, Zay Jones

After the NFL draft of 2017, one fantasy site said this about Corey Davis: "Wide receivers have a longer dynasty shelf life than running backs," and used that to rank him the #1 fantasy rookie option over CMC, Mixon, and Dalvin Cook. It seems a lot of people are still thinking like that.

The hit rate is decent as far as providing useful fantasy production in the WR2-WR3 range. I wouldn't say the hit rate for top5 WRs outweighs the opportunity to draft a surefire RB1. I'd rather have a strong RB1 for 5 years than DJM or Jeudy or CoreyDavis for 10 years.

Of course, it all depends on team build. But if I had a gaping hole at RB, there's no way I'm passing Harris this season if I have a chance to draft him.

[M-Dub]

if you went metcalf over jacobs you're not regretting it.

I mean, hindsight being 20/20 and all, you’re not wrong. But I’d wager there’s WAY more people who took N’Keal Harry over Jacobs and are regretting it pretty severely.

[CGW]

RB selected in the first round tend to have an immediate impact on a fantasy basis but also have the highest bust rate of any NFL position.

I tend to build my teams around every other position first and then the last piece I focus on is RB to maximize their short shelf life. So for me, unless I'm a contender or close to it, my pick is Chase who I view as a much stronger prospect relative to their positions.

[MaddMadden]

As a prospect, where would Najee fit in last year's class and as a prospect where would Chase fit?

I think that a relatively weak/shallow RB class boosted draft capital and Chase is truly a rare talent.

Some people love Najee, but I think he has serious questions while Chase doesn't have many at all.

[murphysxm]

Harris is no where near the talent Chase is. Positions aside, I draft players, not positions or landing spots. Chase has a real chance to be an absolute monster. Harris might be a low end RB1 because of volume, but that line is awful and Alabama RB's have proven to struggle at the next level when they don't have massive holes every carry.

[MaddMadden]

Chase has that savoir faire too. His draft interview is awesome .

[dark_knite03]

Should be Chase or Pitts..... Harris is a good player and even better person but he's 23 years old. He's already older than EVERY 1st round rb last year. Maybe there's a reason for that?

[MaddMadden]

Could you really take Pitts at 1.01? That seems aggressive.

[Londondynasty]

I am torn on this for Team 3.

I am a contender. 14 teamer.

RBs I have Mixon, CEH, Sanders and Rojo. Need to start 2.

WRs I have Tyreek, Davante, Cooper, Higgins, Chark. Need to start 2, can start 4.

My current thought process is Chase, because Tyreek and Davante are going to start to decline in a couple of years and I want to get a top WR to replace them. I also believe Chase is the better prospect.

[Anteaters]

Nice roster for a 14 teamer!

I would say your status as a contender and your roster might need Harris a little more than a WR, but in your case I would also be torn. With CEH and Sanders, you have youth at RB and Mixon isn't that old either. The only thing I worry is Mixon having nagging injuries again and you wouldn't have a dependable 3rd RB. I like Rojo but don't trust the situation in the TB backfield. I'd rather have Harris be available to be my flex on a contender than groom Chase to be a starter for me in 2023. I think Chark will have a bounce back year and be better than Higgins. And having Higgins as your WR5 is great!

But I could go either way with your team.

[MaddMadden]

RBs do have a more immediate impact, but drafting Chase would definitely help extend your window.

I'd take the guy I have ranked higher here, whoever that is for you. You can't go wrong with either.

[killer_of_giants]

if you went metcalf over jacobs you're not regretting it.

I mean, hindsight being 20/20 and all, you’re not wrong. But I’d wager there’s WAY more people who took N’Keal Harry over Jacobs and are regretting it pretty severely.

ahah, yeah, that's true.
but the point is, "always go RB over WR" it's not so clear cut: if the talent at their respective position is similar, then yeah, RBs do have a slight edge. but taking a good but not great RB just because he's the better (or "least worse") in the class over a possibly generational talent (which harry wasn't) isn't a great choice. it may work out if you're a contender with great depth at WR and the need for a RB, but in general, go with the better prospect.

[Londondynasty]

Nice roster for a 14 teamer!

I would say your status as a contender and your roster might need Harris a little more than a WR, but in your case I would also be torn. With CEH and Sanders, you have youth at RB and Mixon isn't that old either. The only thing I worry is Mixon having nagging injuries again and you wouldn't have a dependable 3rd RB. I like Rojo but don't trust the situation in the TB backfield. I'd rather have Harris be available to be my flex on a contender than groom Chase to be a starter for me in 2023. I think Chark will have a bounce back year and be better than Higgins. And having Higgins as your WR5 is great!

But I could go either way with your team.

Thanks mate. Worked hard on the team and happy with it at the moment. Swung the 1.01 in a trade and it is a bit of a luxury really! Quite torn but I think Chase is the better player ultimately