Najee Harris V. Ja'Marr Chase at 1.01 (knowing landing spots)

[MaddMadden]

Another point to consider with Chase is that AJ Green is gone, and despite an abysmal catch rate, he garnered 104 targets. Based on Greens involvement last year, a pass happy offense with a healthy Burrow, in addition to Chases talent, dradt capital, and connection with Burrow, I think Chase gets 100 targets in 21. Assuming 75% catch rate and 15 ypr with 5 TDs, that puts him in the 14-15 PPG category. That is a WR2 with upside type player out of the gate.

For as much discussion of Najee as a receiver and dreams of Lev Bell, PIT is loaded at WR with Juju, Dionte and Claypool. They also have Ebron and drafted a TE in the second round. All Pit RBs combined for just over 80 targets last year which would still be solid, but lots of mouths to feed.

[Jrblaha]

I agree the age isn't a dealbreaker but I do think you're under representing it some here.

Just because a guy typically only lasts through their first contract (although that is more of a recent thing, maybe indicative of a really poor set of RB talent coming into the league for a few years) doesn't mean you just want to cast him off after that.

Alvin Kamara has given his 4 years of elite play. But he still has elite value. Heck you could swap him out for Najee/ETN+ if you wanted. But when Najee is 4 years into his career and about to turn 28 you won't have that option. His value will be minimal. Just tossing away that value that Kamara has right now is a lot to give up on a shrug and move on type approach to age.

And that is assuming that Najee is great for all 4 years like Kamara has been. If a RB shows any sign of weakness that 2 year age difference magnifies.

Compare Doug Martin to Joe Mixon, for instance. Doug Martin came into the league older and blew up the league year 1 and was a top 3 overall dynasty player heading into year two. He disappointed in year 2 and then had an injury riddled year 3 and his value was DEAD. He was a 10th round startup pick entering his 4th year.

Compare that to Mixon, who has done even less than Martin had at this point in his career, and he's still a 3rd round startup pick with decent value on the open market. If he were 2 years older, that wouldn't be the case.

One of the biggest predictors (that I know of) for deaths of rbs in the nfl are carry’s. Imo take a 21 year old rb, put him in Najees spot (as a projected 3 down mega carry back in Pitt), and I think he’s still dead after his rookie contract. And although Najee is old, he didn’t have a billion carries at bama during his 4 years.

Kamara is still valuable to most people, but I’m not currently interested in him over Harris (I’m probably not in the majority there), and I’ve even been contacted by the owner of Kamara wanting to flip him for draft pick this year. I think Harris could still be a valuable contributor to winning for whatever fantasy team owns him at age 28, and playing on his 5th year option, even if his fantasy trade value (which will completely depend on the specific league you’re in, along with what the specific other owners and teams you’re playing with) will be minimal.

If shelf life past rookie contracts matters a ton to you, what rookie rbs in a vacuum would you take over Harris? If you’re rebuilding I completely get drafting someone else, or drafting Harris and flipping him, but if you’re not, I think the majority will go Harris and feel good about it, for reasons I put in the prior post.

I think wiggle room is part of the consideration for sure.
Najee has to be great right away or hia value won't recover.

Also, drafting at 1.01 to flip almost certainly gaurentees you won't get back equal value. Even if you get two early-nid firsts, the odds of getting an equal or better prospect than Chase are slim to none.

I've seen a lot of "draft the RB for value" arguments, but I think that is tough to buy into.

I’ve already said Najee has to be good year 1, and I presume he will be, otherwise he wasn’t a good top 3 pick.

Disagree on 2 early firsts not equaling Chase. Just my opinion, and depends on roster makeup, but I’d trade 1.1 for next years 1.2 + 1.3 in most circumstances.

“Draft the RB for value” is completely league dependent. Many leagues good RBs are much harder to trade for than good WRs. If that’s not true for your specific league, obviously adjust accordingly.

[ColdZealDonkeyStrike]

Najee's age is a on of the negatives on his profile, but I think your off a year on Taylor. Najee is 10 months older, not 22.

[MaddMadden]

Najee's age is a on of the negatives on his profile, but I think your off a year on Taylor. Najee is 10 months older, not 22.

Taylor: 1/19/99
Harris: 3/9/98

My error and apologies. Good catch!

[MaddMadden]

This draft is STILL a month away. Has anyone veen following OTAs closely?