Najee Harris V. Ja'Marr Chase at 1.01 (knowing landing spots)

[murphysxm]

I'm still uncomfortable tagging any unproven rookie with future NFL HoF status. So lets say assume Chase has 5-7 years of being in the WR5-WR15 range - first 2 season warming up to that level, then 3 years of cooling down again, for a 10-12 year career. I think that's a fairly optimistic outlook.

If this is how you feel, take the RB. For me I would be highly disspaointed if your description of Chase's craeer is accurate. Chase is a dynasty asset to build a team around, Harris is a good piece, but will not be a RB #1.

[MaddMadden]

I figured he meant WRs drafted in the top 5 of the NFL draft.

Yeah that is what I meant. I dont think its a great track record. Chase did test insane and have a stellar season in 19, though.

Here's the list, fwiw. Since 2000.

Corey Davis
Amari Cooper
Sammy Watkins
Justin Blackmon
AJ Green
Calvin Johnson
Braylon Edwards
Larry Fitzgerald
Charles Rodgers
Andre Johnson
Peter Warrick

Over the first 5 years of their career average PPR per game:

Green 17.1- max 19.2

Fitz 17.1 - max 19.7

Megatron 16.5 - max 22.4

Blackmon 15.4 (2) - max 19.1

Johnson 14.8 - max 21.2

Cooper 13.8 - max 15.4

Watkins 12.2 - max 16.8

Edwards 11.9 - max 18.8

Davis 9.8 (4) - max 13.7



We may have a bit of recency bias with Cory Davis. Roughly speaking, Green, Fitz and megatron AVERAGED WR1 play over their first five seasons. Johnson and Cooper average WR2. Watkins and Edwards averaged WR3. Davis has been averaged a FLEX.



That doesn't account for year-to-year or week-to-week production, but more than half AVERAGED WR2 play or better. That is a pretty damn good hit rate. I was a skeptic of this argument by have come around.



Go look at the RBs taken at the back end of the first round. A few recent examples that come to mind are Sony Michel and Rashaad Penny. Not saying they were the same prospects as Najee, but talking draft capital alone.

[Anteaters]

That doesn't account for year-to-year or week-to-week production, but more than half AVERAGED WR2 play or better. That is a pretty damn good hit rate. I was a skeptic of this argument by have come around.

Go look at the RBs taken at the back end of the first round. A few recent examples that come to mind are Sony Michel and Rashaad Penny. Not saying they were the same prospects as Najee, but talking draft capital alone.

Great research. That reassures the choice to lean toward a top-5 drafted WR. In this case, I still lean for Najee because it's unfair to compare his situation to Michel and Penny. Both those guys went into clouded backfield situations and never had a chance to be a 3-down back. It's almost a certainty that Najee will be the 3-down RB in an offensive that stresses the run.

I'm all on team Chase and I hope he turns in WR1 numbers for his first five years. He's going to be on my team ... because Najee will be gone by the time I draft.

[Vcize]

That doesn't account for year-to-year or week-to-week production, but more than half AVERAGED WR2 play or better. That is a pretty damn good hit rate. I was a skeptic of this argument by have come around.

Go look at the RBs taken at the back end of the first round. A few recent examples that come to mind are Sony Michel and Rashaad Penny. Not saying they were the same prospects as Najee, but talking draft capital alone.

Great research. That reassures the choice to lean toward a top-5 drafted WR. In this case, I still lean for Najee because it's unfair to compare his situation to Michel and Penny. Both those guys went into clouded backfield situations and never had a chance to be a 3-down back. It's almost a certainty that Najee will be the 3-down RB in an offensive that stresses the run.

I'm all on team Chase and I hope he turns in WR1 numbers for his first five years. He's going to be on my team ... because Najee will be gone by the time I draft.

Isn't there a lot of hindsight in this though?

When Penny was drafted Carroll was quick to say that Penny was a 3-down workhorse. That's what he was in college and that's what he'd be in the pros. His only competition was a 7th round Carson who looked good for a couple games and then had a major hip injury. Carson was a nobody in the FF community at the time, considered no more a threat to Penny then than Anthony McFarland is to Najee now.

Sony was more clouded than either of the other two just due to it being New England, but it was still a bunch of junk there and people were pretty sure that using a 1st round pick meant Sony was going to be a workhorse. And really he was until his knee gave out.

The really interesting part about Sony is that everyone graded him out as some great receiving prospect but he absolutely stunk at that in the pros and was completely abandoned in the passing game.

I could definitely see the case for some cloudiness in Sony, but Penny was being drafted highly specifically because he was going to be a 3-down workhorse right out of the gate and there was no reasonable person that thought a 7th round rookie coming off a major hip injury was going to be even the slightest challenge to that.

[yellowdart24]

This is such a fun debate. Both are great options. WRs in general have a better hit/success rate and I fully expect Chase to live up to his potential alongside Burrow. But Chase could be really good and still top out as a high end WR2 and it could take him 3 years to get there. Harris on the other hand can easily be a top 10 RB this year (even with Pit having a terrible O-line) and will likely hold more immediate value over the first 1-3 years. Which brings into the discussion possible future trades with Harris that can net even bigger returns since RBs tend to get more in trades. If you told me to pick the player with the most fantasy points over the next 10 years, it's Chase pretty easily. But you never know how things will go and Harris likely will win the matchup over the first three seasons. You can't go wrong either way.

[Anteaters]

Isn't there a lot of hindsight in this though?

When Penny was drafted Carroll was quick to say that Penny was a 3-down workhorse. That's what he was in college and that's what he'd be in the pros. His only competition was a 7th round Carson who looked good for a couple games and then had a major hip injury. Carson was a nobody in the FF community at the time, considered no more a threat to Penny then than Anthony McFarland is to Najee now.

Sony was more clouded than either of the other two just due to it being New England, but it was still a bunch of junk there and people were pretty sure that using a 1st round pick meant Sony was going to be a workhorse. And really he was until his knee gave out.

The really interesting part about Sony is that everyone graded him out as some great receiving prospect but he absolutely stunk at that in the pros and was completely abandoned in the passing game.

I could definitely see the case for some cloudiness in Sony, but Penny was being drafted highly specifically because he was going to be a 3-down workhorse right out of the gate and there was no reasonable person that thought a 7th round rookie coming off a major hip injury was going to be even the slightest challenge to that.

Not really hindsight.

As you said, any RB in NE is almost automatically not going to be a consistent 3-down. It's just not the way their offense has usually been set up. Ocassionally a RB will be given the opportunity, but unless they produce strong in both rushing and receiving and without a skid, NE will be quick to start rotating RBs. In his 2018 rookie season, Michel touched the ball 216 times to 181 touches for James White. White was targeted on passes 111 more times than Michel which in itself proves that White had a well-defined role as the receiving RB. No matter how well he rushed, Michel was never going to be a true 3-down RB in NE. Not to mention Burkhead was there constantly poaching touches. Any fantasy owner who drafted Sony hoping to get a full-time 3-down RB was not paying attention to how NE runs its offense.

Carroll is great at coach-speak. I pay more attention to his actions than words. In 2018, Penny was drafted onto a team bringing back it's top 3 rushers (Russ, Mike Davis and Carson.) A RBBC formed almost immediately. Carson and Penny split touches 10-to-11 in week 1, and 6-to-10 in week 2. In week 3, Carson took over with 35 touches to Penny's 3. Penny never started a game, and by the end of the season, Mike Davis and Carson out-touched Penny - and Russ had almost as many rushing yards as Penny.

Neither of those situations remotely resembles Najee and Pittsburgh. You can go back over a decade and see the Steelers consistently rely upon a 3-down RB, year in year out. Even when the starter gets injured, the backup becomes a 3-down RB. They just don't like RBBC or specialists for running and receiving. They want one guy to do it all.

The Steelers did not have a RBBC in 2020, James Conner was clearly the lead RB, and he is not with the team now. Snell is purely a backup and has no chance at winning the starting job if Harris is healthy. Najee will start and in that offense he will be a 3-down RB. At that point, it will be his talent that determines his outcome, not whether or not the coaching staff gives him a shot. The shot is there for him to own, and he'll be the full-time 3-down RB for as many years as he is healthy. Based on Pittsburgh's history, that is a given.

Maybe it's just me, but I don't see Pittsburgh as a dumpster fire. Even with Ben being uneven the team went 12-4 in 2020. If the offensive line was good enough for Conner+Snell could combine for 1300 total yards and 10 TDs in 2020, I see no reason why Najee should not be expected to do at least that well. That would make Najee a top5 RB in the 2020 season. And honestly, I expect him to be better than that. I predict he'll score at least 14 times. That kind of production makes fantasy champions and if I have a top-4 contender, I want Najee over Chase for the 2021 season.

I understand someone saying they prefer Chase over Najee because they prefer a Top15 WR for a decade over a Top8 RB for 5 seasons. I'm not here to debate preferences - we all run our teams the way we want to. But we should all realize Najee is in a great spot and should have a great 2021 season. It doesn't make sense to assume Najee is going to underperform.

You can't go wrong either way.

That's my thought, too.

[MaddMadden]

Najee will also be 23.5 when the season starts, which means he'll be almost 28 at the expiration of his rookie deal. I know RBs are always a short window, but for context he's only 16 months younger than CMC, 11 months younger than Saquon and 22 months older than Taylor.

If your argument for Najee hinges on value due to higher production sooner, your window to sell is much shorter. That also means he has to perform right away.

[MaddMadden]

Thanks for all of the great discussion over the past week, all.

With over 100 votes in, looks like Chase won by a two-to-one margin. WOW!

[Jrblaha]

Najee will also be 23.5 when the season starts, which means he'll be almost 28 at the expiration of his rookie deal. I know RBs are always a short window, but for context he's only 16 months younger than CMC, 11 months younger than Saquon and 22 months older than Taylor.

If your argument for Najee hinges on value due to higher production sooner, your window to sell is much shorter. That also means he has to perform right away.

Right, but I think anyone valuing Najee thinks he will perform right away. Most rbs don’t have much value anymore when their rookie contract is up. Najee should be prime the whole way through his rookie deal, and super useful for your roster during. When it’s over, he’s probably toast, but again, to me it’s not that different from a younger rb anyway. The nfl just murders most rbs.

[Shoreline Steamers]

You can start 2-4 WRs. It's very likely Chase will not do better than the 4WRs ahead of him in your lineup and spend the entire season on your bench. OTOH, Harris will almost certainly be in your starting lineup from the 1st game. With Harris, you have a good chance to contend in 2021. With Chase, you don't even have an adequate RB2.

I vote you take RBs with 1.01 and 1.05. If the top 3 RB are gone before 1.05, you can look at the best WR available.

Unless the OP has a league where the trading is very active, these were my thoughts. His team is good enough to compete, but he's literally got no RB2!

Is Chase the overall better investment? Probably. But taking into account the contract years of his players he'd be wasting in 2021 without help at the running back position, I don't see how he has the luxury of drafting Chase.

This isn't a question in a vacuum. And some of the responses seem not to take into consideration the situation this owner is in.

[MaddMadden]

You can start 2-4 WRs. It's very likely Chase will not do better than the 4WRs ahead of him in your lineup and spend the entire season on your bench. OTOH, Harris will almost certainly be in your starting lineup from the 1st game. With Harris, you have a good chance to contend in 2021. With Chase, you don't even have an adequate RB2.

I vote you take RBs with 1.01 and 1.05. If the top 3 RB are gone before 1.05, you can look at the best WR available.

Unless the OP has a league where the trading is very active, these were my thoughts. His team is good enough to compete, but he's literally got no RB2!

Is Chase the overall better investment? Probably. But taking into account the contract years of his players he'd be wasting in 2021 without help at the running back position, I don't see how he has the luxury of drafting Chase.

This isn't a question in a vacuum. And some of the responses seem not to take into consideration the situation this owner is in.

I have a 3rd of my cap space left to address RB at auction. There are a handful of studs available. I'm not worried about my RB room. Given the depth of this years class, I plan to address largely through the auction. I have the luxary to do so. A lot of moving parts, but Harris won't end up a must start in my lineup.

I won it all last year despite injuries to CMC, Kittle and Hunter. Traded CMC for 3 1sts (including 1.05) and a 2nd while clearing 35mm of cap.

That said, the point of the post is in a vaccuum which is the better option. I love the discussion we were able to generate!

[Shoreline Steamers]

I have a 3rd of my cap space left to address RB at auction. There are a handful of studs available. I'm not worried about my RB room. Given the depth of this years class, I plan to address largely through the auction. I have the luxary to do so. A lot of moving parts, but Harris won't end up a must start in my lineup.

I won it all last year despite injuries to CMC, Kittle and Hunter. Traded CMC for 3 1sts (including 1.05) and a 2nd while clearing 35mm of cap.

That said, the point of the post is in a vaccuum which is the better option. I love the discussion we were able to generate!

Turns out I was the one in the dark regarding the discussion! I didn't consider that you'd have a chance to restock your RB's with players that other owners weren't able to keep as well. Admittedly, I don't have a cap/contract/auction style league so that's a new animal for me. Looking at your RB's had me concerned for your team this year.

That being the case, my original thinking that Chase is the superior asset to Harris stands. And if choosing between the two that's who I'd take if given the chance. As most others agree. I'm changing my vote in the poll.

Also, I was surprised at the discussion the post generated as well. These threads usually disappear within a day, maybe generating 1-2 pages of comments.

[Vcize]

Najee will also be 23.5 when the season starts, which means he'll be almost 28 at the expiration of his rookie deal. I know RBs are always a short window, but for context he's only 16 months younger than CMC, 11 months younger than Saquon and 22 months older than Taylor.

If your argument for Najee hinges on value due to higher production sooner, your window to sell is much shorter. That also means he has to perform right away.

Right, but I think anyone valuing Najee thinks he will perform right away. Most rbs don’t have much value anymore when their rookie contract is up. Najee should be prime the whole way through his rookie deal, and super useful for your roster during. When it’s over, he’s probably toast, but again, to me it’s not that different from a younger rb anyway. The nfl just murders most rbs.

I agree the age isn't a dealbreaker but I do think you're under representing it some here.

Just because a guy typically only lasts through their first contract (although that is more of a recent thing, maybe indicative of a really poor set of RB talent coming into the league for a few years) doesn't mean you just want to cast him off after that.

Alvin Kamara has given his 4 years of elite play. But he still has elite value. Heck you could swap him out for Najee/ETN+ if you wanted. But when Najee is 4 years into his career and about to turn 28 you won't have that option. His value will be minimal. Just tossing away that value that Kamara has right now is a lot to give up on a shrug and move on type approach to age.

And that is assuming that Najee is great for all 4 years like Kamara has been. If a RB shows any sign of weakness that 2 year age difference magnifies.

Compare Doug Martin to Joe Mixon, for instance. Doug Martin came into the league older and blew up the league year 1 and was a top 3 overall dynasty player heading into year two. He disappointed in year 2 and then had an injury riddled year 3 and his value was DEAD. He was a 10th round startup pick entering his 4th year.

Compare that to Mixon, who has done even less than Martin had at this point in his career, and he's still a 3rd round startup pick with decent value on the open market. If he were 2 years older, that wouldn't be the case.

[Jrblaha]

Najee will also be 23.5 when the season starts, which means he'll be almost 28 at the expiration of his rookie deal. I know RBs are always a short window, but for context he's only 16 months younger than CMC, 11 months younger than Saquon and 22 months older than Taylor.

If your argument for Najee hinges on value due to higher production sooner, your window to sell is much shorter. That also means he has to perform right away.

Right, but I think anyone valuing Najee thinks he will perform right away. Most rbs don’t have much value anymore when their rookie contract is up. Najee should be prime the whole way through his rookie deal, and super useful for your roster during. When it’s over, he’s probably toast, but again, to me it’s not that different from a younger rb anyway. The nfl just murders most rbs.

I agree the age isn't a dealbreaker but I do think you're under representing it some here.

Just because a guy typically only lasts through their first contract (although that is more of a recent thing, maybe indicative of a really poor set of RB talent coming into the league for a few years) doesn't mean you just want to cast him off after that.

Alvin Kamara has given his 4 years of elite play. But he still has elite value. Heck you could swap him out for Najee/ETN+ if you wanted. But when Najee is 4 years into his career and about to turn 28 you won't have that option. His value will be minimal. Just tossing away that value that Kamara has right now is a lot to give up on a shrug and move on type approach to age.

And that is assuming that Najee is great for all 4 years like Kamara has been. If a RB shows any sign of weakness that 2 year age difference magnifies.

Compare Doug Martin to Joe Mixon, for instance. Doug Martin came into the league older and blew up the league year 1 and was a top 3 overall dynasty player heading into year two. He disappointed in year 2 and then had an injury riddled year 3 and his value was DEAD. He was a 10th round startup pick entering his 4th year.

Compare that to Mixon, who has done even less than Martin had at this point in his career, and he's still a 3rd round startup pick with decent value on the open market. If he were 2 years older, that wouldn't be the case.

One of the biggest predictors (that I know of) for deaths of rbs in the nfl are carry’s. Imo take a 21 year old rb, put him in Najees spot (as a projected 3 down mega carry back in Pitt), and I think he’s still dead after his rookie contract. And although Najee is old, he didn’t have a billion carries at bama during his 4 years.

Kamara is still valuable to most people, but I’m not currently interested in him over Harris (I’m probably not in the majority there), and I’ve even been contacted by the owner of Kamara wanting to flip him for draft pick this year. I think Harris could still be a valuable contributor to winning for whatever fantasy team owns him at age 28, and playing on his 5th year option, even if his fantasy trade value (which will completely depend on the specific league you’re in, along with what the specific other owners and teams you’re playing with) will be minimal.

If shelf life past rookie contracts matters a ton to you, what rookie rbs in a vacuum would you take over Harris? If you’re rebuilding I completely get drafting someone else, or drafting Harris and flipping him, but if you’re not, I think the majority will go Harris and feel good about it, for reasons I put in the prior post.

[MaddMadden]

Right, but I think anyone valuing Najee thinks he will perform right away. Most rbs don’t have much value anymore when their rookie contract is up. Najee should be prime the whole way through his rookie deal, and super useful for your roster during. When it’s over, he’s probably toast, but again, to me it’s not that different from a younger rb anyway. The nfl just murders most rbs.

I agree the age isn't a dealbreaker but I do think you're under representing it some here.

Just because a guy typically only lasts through their first contract (although that is more of a recent thing, maybe indicative of a really poor set of RB talent coming into the league for a few years) doesn't mean you just want to cast him off after that.

Alvin Kamara has given his 4 years of elite play. But he still has elite value. Heck you could swap him out for Najee/ETN+ if you wanted. But when Najee is 4 years into his career and about to turn 28 you won't have that option. His value will be minimal. Just tossing away that value that Kamara has right now is a lot to give up on a shrug and move on type approach to age.

And that is assuming that Najee is great for all 4 years like Kamara has been. If a RB shows any sign of weakness that 2 year age difference magnifies.

Compare Doug Martin to Joe Mixon, for instance. Doug Martin came into the league older and blew up the league year 1 and was a top 3 overall dynasty player heading into year two. He disappointed in year 2 and then had an injury riddled year 3 and his value was DEAD. He was a 10th round startup pick entering his 4th year.

Compare that to Mixon, who has done even less than Martin had at this point in his career, and he's still a 3rd round startup pick with decent value on the open market. If he were 2 years older, that wouldn't be the case.

One of the biggest predictors (that I know of) for deaths of rbs in the nfl are carry’s. Imo take a 21 year old rb, put him in Najees spot (as a projected 3 down mega carry back in Pitt), and I think he’s still dead after his rookie contract. And although Najee is old, he didn’t have a billion carries at bama during his 4 years.

Kamara is still valuable to most people, but I’m not currently interested in him over Harris (I’m probably not in the majority there), and I’ve even been contacted by the owner of Kamara wanting to flip him for draft pick this year. I think Harris could still be a valuable contributor to winning for whatever fantasy team owns him at age 28, and playing on his 5th year option, even if his fantasy trade value (which will completely depend on the specific league you’re in, along with what the specific other owners and teams you’re playing with) will be minimal.

If shelf life past rookie contracts matters a ton to you, what rookie rbs in a vacuum would you take over Harris? If you’re rebuilding I completely get drafting someone else, or drafting Harris and flipping him, but if you’re not, I think the majority will go Harris and feel good about it, for reasons I put in the prior post.

I think wiggle room is part of the consideration for sure.
Najee has to be great right away or hia value won't recover.

Also, drafting at 1.01 to flip almost certainly gaurentees you won't get back equal value. Even if you get two early-nid firsts, the odds of getting an equal or better prospect than Chase are slim to none.

I've seen a lot of "draft the RB for value" arguments, but I think that is tough to buy into.