Time to move Matt Ryan?

Postby **DynastyDynasty** » Wed Apr 14, 2021 12:35 pm

For the team in the sig, I don't want to watch him lose all of his value if ATL drafts a QB @ #4. Would you move him now for a future 3rd?

Postby **GridironGuerilla** » Wed Apr 14, 2021 12:46 pm

1 QB league with Mahomes, I would likely trade any of your backups for a 3rd.

Postby **Gator Sens** » Wed Apr 14, 2021 12:47 pm

I would rather hold, but I get it if you are trying to get something for him.

Postby **meineymoe** » Wed Apr 14, 2021 12:49 pm

In a 1 qb 12 team league, I think that is decent value, as opposed to riding him into the sunset on the bench behind Mahomes. You can find an apt backup in waivers or late draft picks

-oo-

Anteaters · Postby **Anteaters** » Wed Apr 14, 2021 1:12 pm

I get the reasoning of wanting something instead of nothing.

However, how much better is a 3rd round pick than nothing? And are we talking 3.01 or 3.12? Honestly, the odds of hitting on the 30th pick of a rookie draft have to be about 7% - I'm sure someone has stats for this.

Unless some high mid-quality backups are available (Cousins, Fitz, Wentz) I would hold Ryan. In the event of a 6+week injury, I wouldn't want to drop from Mahomes to Dalton/Tyrod/Goff/Darnold level. For me, it would be worth the 30th pick to have a quality backup at QB. If Mahomes goes down with a season-ending injury in week 3, how much do you think it will cost for you to get a Ryan-comparable QB? More than a 3rd round pick, I'm sure.

Postby **DynastyDynasty** » Wed Apr 14, 2021 2:30 pm

Anteaters wrote: ↑Wed Apr 14, 2021 1:12 pm I get the reasoning of wanting something instead of nothing.

However, how much better is a 3rd round pick than nothing? And are we talking 3.01 or 3.12? Honestly, the odds of hitting on the 30th pick of a rookie draft have to be about 7% - I'm sure someone has stats for this.

Unless some high mid-quality backups are available (Cousins, Fitz, Wentz) I would hold Ryan. In the event of a 6+week injury, I wouldn't want to drop from Mahomes to Dalton/Tyrod/Goff/Darnold level. For me, it would be worth the 30th pick to have a quality backup at QB. If Mahomes goes down with a season-ending injury in week 3, how much do you think it will cost for you to get a Ryan-comparable QB? More than a 3rd round pick, I'm sure.

Thanks to everyone for the responses. Much appreciated.
Anteaters, I totally get everything you're saying. So, I guess my question for you is, what do you think the chances are that ATL drafts a QB @ #4? You made some very solid points for holding Ryan. I can't even get a pulse on what I think the chances are that they draft a QB. Roeth is basically all out of value already. If ATL not only drafts a QB, but starts him at some point in the season, I'm screwed if Mahomes goes down. That's a lot of if's. But, I'd be willing to bet I can draft one of Wilson/Fields/Lance with one of my early 2nd rounders this year (that's where I drafted Lamar Jackson when he was a rookie). So, does that change anything if you were figuring out this decision for yourself?

Anteaters · Postby **Anteaters** » Wed Apr 14, 2021 3:18 pm

The Falcons are in salary-cap purgatory with Ryan's contract. Realistically, they won't be able to release/trade him for the next two seasons without taking a season-ruining hit. Also, I think Ryan has at least 3 more years at his current level.

No way does Atlanta take a QB with the 4th pick. They'd either have to have the rookie sit for two years or play the rookie and bench $30M Ryan. The most realistic scenario for Atlanta is they trade down and draft either an OL or go Defense. I don't see them taking a QB or Pitts. Neither really fits what this team needs most.

Postby **DynastyDynasty** » Wed Apr 14, 2021 3:28 pm

Anteaters wrote: ↑Wed Apr 14, 2021 3:18 pm The Falcons are in salary-cap purgatory with Ryan's contract. Realistically, they won't be able to release/trade him for the next two seasons without taking a season-ruining hit. Also, I think Ryan has at least 3 more years at his current level.

No way does Atlanta take a QB with the 4th pick. They'd either have to have the rookie sit for two years or play the rookie and bench $30M Ryan. The most realistic scenario for Atlanta is they trade down and draft either an OL or go Defense. I don't see them taking a QB or Pitts. Neither really fits what this team needs most.

Those are great points. I forgot about the cap hits. And the GM has really been talking about taking a QB, like he's almost being too obvious about just trying to drive up the value of the pick for when/if they trade back. Hey, I appreciate the input, Anteaters! I think I'm going to hold unless I get a 2nd or better.

Postby **SteveMaddensShoes** » Wed Apr 14, 2021 5:19 pm

Anteaters wrote: ↑Wed Apr 14, 2021 3:18 pm The Falcons are in salary-cap purgatory with Ryan's contract. Realistically, they won't be able to release/trade him for the next two seasons without taking a season-ruining hit. Also, I think Ryan has at least 3 more years at his current level.

No way does Atlanta take a QB with the 4th pick. They'd either have to have the rookie sit for two years or play the rookie and bench $30M Ryan. The most realistic scenario for Atlanta is they trade down and draft either an OL or go Defense. I don't see them taking a QB or Pitts. Neither really fits what this team needs most.

This is a well thought out post, regardless what actually happens in the draft. I like your reasoning.

Postby **Pac_Eddy** » Wed Apr 14, 2021 5:39 pm

I'd definitely keep Ryan. Trade Roethlisberger if you need roster space. He's almost done.

I don't think the Falcons draft a QB, but if they do, Ryan is still worth more than a 3rd and Big Ben.

Postby **Eight7Seven** » Thu Apr 15, 2021 2:50 am

Very interesting thread to read, and I can't add anything to Anteaters excellent analysis. Anything could happen, but I find it very unlikely that Atlanta drafts a QB at 4, without working some kind of trade for Ryan.

Postby **krtbuckeye** » Thu Apr 15, 2021 3:53 am

Anteaters wrote: ↑Wed Apr 14, 2021 3:18 pm The Falcons are in salary-cap purgatory with Ryan's contract. Realistically, they won't be able to release/trade him for the next two seasons without taking a season-ruining hit. Also, I think Ryan has at least 3 more years at his current level.

No way does Atlanta take a QB with the 4th pick. They'd either have to have the rookie sit for two years or play the rookie and bench $30M Ryan. The most realistic scenario for Atlanta is they trade down and draft either an OL or go Defense. I don't see them taking a QB or Pitts. Neither really fits what this team needs most.

Great take here! Compelling argument for holding Ryan where you have him.

Jigga94 · Postby **Jigga94** » Thu Apr 15, 2021 5:15 am

I'd rather hold. I wouldn't expect to get more, but it's a little insurance against injury. Your team is built to compete, a 2022 3rd doesn't help that. Now, I'm not sure how easy it is to get a different QB2... But I'd hold on the surface

I've tried to move him in 2QB before and he's already too old and mediocre for people so I think I'm rolling with him until the bitter end lol

Postby **BradysBunch** » Thu Apr 15, 2021 6:01 am

I am holding ryan here for the reasons already stated.

Postby **GridironGuerilla** » Thu Apr 15, 2021 7:23 am

Pac_Eddy wrote: ↑Wed Apr 14, 2021 5:39 pm I'd definitely keep Ryan. Trade Roethlisberger if you need roster space. He's almost done.

I don't think the Falcons draft a QB, but if they do, Ryan is still worth more than a 3rd and Big Ben.

While I stand by moving one of your backups in a 1 QB, after further review and well made points I think this is the right direction to go unless you can get a 2nd.

Dynasty League Football Forum