Avoiding RB at 1.01 and 1.03 in the rookie draft?

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Avery
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Avoiding RB at 1.01 and 1.03 in the rookie draft?

Postby Avery » Sat Apr 10, 2021 10:11 am

:crazy:

Team 1 below and I'm entering year two of a rebuild.

Strategy will likely change once we see landing spots for the players (and I may post this question about with more clarity once we do!) but I am contemplating drafting:
1.01: Chase
1.03: Pitts :wtf:


My general thought is that I don't see any of the top RBs as can't miss RB1s (although admittedly I'm not a big college football fanatic and I am relying on reading rookie profiles I trust that have a good track record), and I love Chase and Pitts.

I know a lot of this will come down to whether you think that drafting a TE that early is fool-hearty (and I get many people do) and I get given the history of rookies at the position it is - but I think Pitts may be the exception that proves the rule. I know advice may be, "If you want Pitts, trade down!" but looking at my league history, the top TEs get drafted in the first round from 1.06 - 1.10 so I don't want to get cute (although I see what any offers are at 1.03).

Also, looking at the last few years of rookie drafting and, although this is anecdotal, a lot of 1st round misses at all positions.

Also also, as I've played this hobby for a while, I'm embracing the strategy more and more, if you like a guy, go get that guy!

So I would love to hear what the wisdom of the board says.

Food for thought:
- I only need to start 1 RB in this league :thumbup:
- TEs get a scoring bump (see sig) :thumbup:
- I'm really liking Trey Sermon and could be targeting him at 2.01 :thumbup:
- I can only start 1 TE and I already have two solid ones :thumbdown:

Edit to add:
This is a contract league, so not true dynasty which changes some equations, but that's adding a 3rd dimension so for the sake of clarity, just kinda ignoring that here.
Team 1: Dynasty/Contract Team: 12 Team, PPR, QB,1 RB, 2WR, 2 Flex WR/RB, TE (Premium TE scoring: 1.25X receiving yards points)
QB – J. Hurts, A Richardson (R-IR))
RB – Javonte Williams, K. Walker III,J. Hill, J. Ford, K. Miller (R), J.K. Dobbins (IR), K. Hebert (IR)
WR – J. Chase, C. Lamb, K. Allen, T. Burks, DJ Chark, P. Nakua (R)
TE – D. Waller, C. Okonkwo, L. Thomas, J. Ferguson

Team 2: Dynasty Team: 12 Team, 0.5 PPR, QB, 1 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 2 Flex WR/RB/TE (Premium TE scoring: 1.5X receiving yards points)
QB - A. Rodgers, L. Jackson
RB - B. Hall, S. Barkley, A. Kamara, E. Mitchell, J. Mason, Z. White, K. Miller (R), T. Spears (R)
WR - T. Hill, D. Adams, C. Watson, M. Brown, R. Rice (R)
TE - D. Waller, G. Kittle, J. Ferguson

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Re: Avoiding RB at 1.01 and 1.03 in the rookie draft?

Postby Mtt33 » Sat Apr 10, 2021 10:27 am

Sure you only have to start 1 rb but you also only have to start 2 WR. WRs grow on trees in this format, opinion of course but chase 1 to me would be a mistake. I’d look to trade the pick if you don’t like the RBs.
Only starting 6 guys Is extremely shallow, depth and age wouldn’t be a priority to me, but I could see an argument for pitts or even Lawrence pretty early here if you use the picks.

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Re: Avoiding RB at 1.01 and 1.03 in the rookie draft?

Postby Avery » Sat Apr 10, 2021 10:35 am

Mtt33 wrote: Sat Apr 10, 2021 10:27 am Sure you only have to start 1 rb but you also only have to start 2 WR. WRs grow on trees in this format, opinion of course but chase 1 to me would be a mistake. I’d look to trade the pick if you don’t like the RBs.
Only starting 6 guys Is extremely shallow, depth and age wouldn’t be a priority to me, but I could see an argument for pitts or even Lawrence pretty early here if you use the picks.
Also, should mention, that I'm highly confident that the guy at 1.02 has Harris and Chase as his 1 and 2 so if I traded out of of 1.01 below 1.02, I'm guessing Harris would go 1st and Chase would then go to him at 1.02.
Team 1: Dynasty/Contract Team: 12 Team, PPR, QB,1 RB, 2WR, 2 Flex WR/RB, TE (Premium TE scoring: 1.25X receiving yards points)
QB – J. Hurts, A Richardson (R-IR))
RB – Javonte Williams, K. Walker III,J. Hill, J. Ford, K. Miller (R), J.K. Dobbins (IR), K. Hebert (IR)
WR – J. Chase, C. Lamb, K. Allen, T. Burks, DJ Chark, P. Nakua (R)
TE – D. Waller, C. Okonkwo, L. Thomas, J. Ferguson

Team 2: Dynasty Team: 12 Team, 0.5 PPR, QB, 1 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 2 Flex WR/RB/TE (Premium TE scoring: 1.5X receiving yards points)
QB - A. Rodgers, L. Jackson
RB - B. Hall, S. Barkley, A. Kamara, E. Mitchell, J. Mason, Z. White, K. Miller (R), T. Spears (R)
WR - T. Hill, D. Adams, C. Watson, M. Brown, R. Rice (R)
TE - D. Waller, G. Kittle, J. Ferguson

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Re: Avoiding RB at 1.01 and 1.03 in the rookie draft?

Postby abloom » Sat Apr 10, 2021 11:29 am

Chase at 1.01 is good. Pitts at 1.03 is likely not a great move.
Team #1: 2nd place
12 team, 1 ppr (1.5 te), 1Q,2R,2W,1T,2F,1D,1K

Q: Kyler, AR
R: JT, CMC, Barkley, chandler
W: Evans, Chase, Mooney, Collins, Dell, Pickens
T: Kelce, Goedert
D: nyj
K: Sanders

Team #2: back to back champion
12 team, 1ppr (1.5 te), 1Q,2R,2W,1T,1SF,1F,1D,1K

Q: R Wilson, Murray, Watson
R: Swift, Walker, gus bus
W: Puka, Metcalf, Dell, Cooper, DJM, K Allen
T: Kelce, Pitts
K: Tucker
D: CLE

Team #3: back to back champion
14 team, SF, 1PPR (2PPR for TE), 1Q,2R,3W,1T,1SF,2F

Q: Mahomes, Rodgers, Watson, Heinicke, walker
R: Mostert, walker, a Jones, Wilson, Charb, Z White, McLaughlin, freeman, d Williams, Reynolds,
W: Waddle, A St Brown, K Allen, Cooper, Nuk, Juju
T: Kelce, Schultz, Thomas, Ferguson

Team #4 3rd
https://www49.myfantasyleague.com/2024/ ... =0004&O=01

Team #5 4th
https://www45.myfantasyleague.com/2024/ ... =07&F=0009

Team #6 orphan
https://www46.myfantasyleague.com/2024/ ... =0013&O=07

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Re: Avoiding RB at 1.01 and 1.03 in the rookie draft?

Postby bigbuck22 » Sat Apr 10, 2021 11:43 am

I actually don't mind this strategy. Your starting requirements make it less desirable but... in a rebuild, you grab top talents. Lamb, Chase. And Pitts could be huge for a decade. You can address other positions in years to come. RB/QB are quicker to develop and strike while WR and TE typically take a few years. Why not lock those guys in. By the time they're at the top of their game, you'll have added a few other players at RB/QB that will hopefully hit.

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Re: Avoiding RB at 1.01 and 1.03 in the rookie draft?

Postby Avery » Sat Apr 10, 2021 11:45 am

bigbuck22 wrote: Sat Apr 10, 2021 11:43 am I actually don't mind this strategy. Your starting requirements make it less desirable but... in a rebuild, you grab top talents. Lamb, Chase. And Pitts could be huge for a decade. You can address other positions in years to come. RB/QB are quicker to develop and strike while WR and TE typically take a few years. Why not lock those guys in. By the time they're at the top of their game, you'll have added a few other players at RB/QB that will hopefully hit.
That is a good summery of kinda what I'm (potentially) thinking. Don't worry about position but grab talent in a rebuild - even with short benches and lineups.
Team 1: Dynasty/Contract Team: 12 Team, PPR, QB,1 RB, 2WR, 2 Flex WR/RB, TE (Premium TE scoring: 1.25X receiving yards points)
QB – J. Hurts, A Richardson (R-IR))
RB – Javonte Williams, K. Walker III,J. Hill, J. Ford, K. Miller (R), J.K. Dobbins (IR), K. Hebert (IR)
WR – J. Chase, C. Lamb, K. Allen, T. Burks, DJ Chark, P. Nakua (R)
TE – D. Waller, C. Okonkwo, L. Thomas, J. Ferguson

Team 2: Dynasty Team: 12 Team, 0.5 PPR, QB, 1 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 2 Flex WR/RB/TE (Premium TE scoring: 1.5X receiving yards points)
QB - A. Rodgers, L. Jackson
RB - B. Hall, S. Barkley, A. Kamara, E. Mitchell, J. Mason, Z. White, K. Miller (R), T. Spears (R)
WR - T. Hill, D. Adams, C. Watson, M. Brown, R. Rice (R)
TE - D. Waller, G. Kittle, J. Ferguson

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Re: Avoiding RB at 1.01 and 1.03 in the rookie draft?

Postby PBFalcon » Sat Apr 10, 2021 11:57 am

I don't think you will find many people on this forum approving of Pitts at 1.03. I know there has not been a good track record of 1st round TEs producing in fantasy, but I am with you in that Pitts looks like a guy that can be the exception.
I draft at 1.03 this year. I already have Kittle and Henry, but I am still considering Pitts if he is there for me. Guys like him just don't come around very often. And like you said, I would rather get my guy and miss then watch someone get him and have him turn into a stud in their team.
So anyways ... Yes, chase and Pitts seems like a good draft haul to me.
10 team dynasty began 2016
Standard scoring (no PPR, all TDs 6pts)
Start 1 QB, 2 RB, 4 WR, 1 TE, 1 Flex (RB/WR/TE), 1 K, 1 Def

2018 2nd
2019 2nd
2020 CHAMP
2021 2nd
2022 *co-champ...yuck

QB: P Mahomes
RB: J Taylor, T Etienne, D Swift, B Robinson Jr, J Mixon, J Gibbs, Z Charbonnet, R Johnson, J Wilson
WR: J Jefferson, J Chase, J Waddle, DK Metcalf, J Addison, T Dell, J Downs, M Williams, K Toney, , C Claypool
TE: K Pitts, G Kittle
K: Stream
Def: SF

2024 picks: 1 (early/mid), 1 ,2 3 (early/mid), 3, 4, 5, 6

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Re: Avoiding RB at 1.01 and 1.03 in the rookie draft?

Postby prinefan » Sat Apr 10, 2021 12:29 pm

Bottom line, just take who you like. I don't buy into the "group-think" premise.

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Re: Avoiding RB at 1.01 and 1.03 in the rookie draft?

Postby Gator Sens » Sat Apr 10, 2021 12:40 pm

prinefan wrote: Sat Apr 10, 2021 12:29 pm Bottom line, just take who you like. I don't buy into the "group-think" premise.
Taking who you want is a good way to go. Grab your favourites! For me, I would go Chase and Smith personally.

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Re: Avoiding RB at 1.01 and 1.03 in the rookie draft?

Postby Avery » Sat Apr 10, 2021 1:09 pm

Gator Sens wrote: Sat Apr 10, 2021 12:40 pm
prinefan wrote: Sat Apr 10, 2021 12:29 pm Bottom line, just take who you like. I don't buy into the "group-think" premise.
Taking who you want is a good way to go. Grab your favourites! For me, I would go Chase and Smith personally.
That is another direction (and as a Giants fan... that could, if the mocks are right, could be extra fun for me!) but interesting to hear others may bee "zigging" away from all RBs early.
Team 1: Dynasty/Contract Team: 12 Team, PPR, QB,1 RB, 2WR, 2 Flex WR/RB, TE (Premium TE scoring: 1.25X receiving yards points)
QB – J. Hurts, A Richardson (R-IR))
RB – Javonte Williams, K. Walker III,J. Hill, J. Ford, K. Miller (R), J.K. Dobbins (IR), K. Hebert (IR)
WR – J. Chase, C. Lamb, K. Allen, T. Burks, DJ Chark, P. Nakua (R)
TE – D. Waller, C. Okonkwo, L. Thomas, J. Ferguson

Team 2: Dynasty Team: 12 Team, 0.5 PPR, QB, 1 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 2 Flex WR/RB/TE (Premium TE scoring: 1.5X receiving yards points)
QB - A. Rodgers, L. Jackson
RB - B. Hall, S. Barkley, A. Kamara, E. Mitchell, J. Mason, Z. White, K. Miller (R), T. Spears (R)
WR - T. Hill, D. Adams, C. Watson, M. Brown, R. Rice (R)
TE - D. Waller, G. Kittle, J. Ferguson

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Re: Avoiding RB at 1.01 and 1.03 in the rookie draft?

Postby Jigga94 » Sat Apr 10, 2021 2:01 pm

I'd be fine with Chase and Pitts in that format of very small starting requirements, especially the 1RB part. Of course, I'd always float out those picks for proven assets first. I'm thinking you could snag a stud for either pick possibly from someone with rookie fever.

I will also say with the smaller starting size, QB should probably go a tad higher up. Idk where Lawrence or some of the others will go, but QB is your biggest need

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Re: Avoiding RB at 1.01 and 1.03 in the rookie draft?

Postby Avery » Sat Apr 10, 2021 2:10 pm

Jigga94 wrote: Sat Apr 10, 2021 2:01 pm I'd be fine with Chase and Pitts in that format of very small starting requirements, especially the 1RB part. Of course, I'd always float out those picks for proven assets first. I'm thinking you could snag a stud for either pick possibly from someone with rookie fever.

I will also say with the smaller starting size, QB should probably go a tad higher up. Idk where Lawrence or some of the others will go, but QB is your biggest need
I hear you but it's still a start 1 QB league and especially with short benches, there are usually serviceable ones to be had for free, so they just aren't that valuable commodities.
Team 1: Dynasty/Contract Team: 12 Team, PPR, QB,1 RB, 2WR, 2 Flex WR/RB, TE (Premium TE scoring: 1.25X receiving yards points)
QB – J. Hurts, A Richardson (R-IR))
RB – Javonte Williams, K. Walker III,J. Hill, J. Ford, K. Miller (R), J.K. Dobbins (IR), K. Hebert (IR)
WR – J. Chase, C. Lamb, K. Allen, T. Burks, DJ Chark, P. Nakua (R)
TE – D. Waller, C. Okonkwo, L. Thomas, J. Ferguson

Team 2: Dynasty Team: 12 Team, 0.5 PPR, QB, 1 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 2 Flex WR/RB/TE (Premium TE scoring: 1.5X receiving yards points)
QB - A. Rodgers, L. Jackson
RB - B. Hall, S. Barkley, A. Kamara, E. Mitchell, J. Mason, Z. White, K. Miller (R), T. Spears (R)
WR - T. Hill, D. Adams, C. Watson, M. Brown, R. Rice (R)
TE - D. Waller, G. Kittle, J. Ferguson

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Re: Avoiding RB at 1.01 and 1.03 in the rookie draft?

Postby krtbuckeye » Sat Apr 10, 2021 4:09 pm

I like Chase at 1.01. As far as 1.03 goes, I would absolutely take the guy you believe in. I am not on the Pitts hype train, but I do like him as a player. In this format, one could argue he has the most potential of anyone in the class to provide a positional advantage given the small starting req’s at RB/WR and the bump for TEs.
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10 Team SF, PPR, Roster: 33+2 IR+2 Taxi
Start: QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, TE, SF, FLX (RB/WR), K, 2 DL, LB, 2 DB, 2 IDP FLX

**IDP scoring is TKL heavy (1.0 solo and asst), no QBH or TFL.**

QB: Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts
RB: Jahmyr Gibbs, D’Andre Swift, Jerome Ford, Khalil Herbert, Jaleel McLaughlin, Ty Chandler, Michael Carter, Isaiah Spiller, Chase Brown, Evan Hull (IR), Sean Tucker
WR: Amon-Ra St. Brown, DeVonta Smith, Tee Higgins, Jordan Addison, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Josh Palmer, Demario Douglas, Alec Pierce, Michael Wilson, Jalin Hyatt, Kayshon Boutte (Taxi)
TE: Sam LaPorta, Trey McBride
K: Jake Elliott
DL: Danielle Hunter, Aiden Hutchinson, Jaelan Phillips (IR)
LB: Bobby Wagner, Jordyn Brooks, Logan Wilson, Ernest Jones
DB: Derwin James, Brian Branch

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Re: Avoiding RB at 1.01 and 1.03 in the rookie draft?

Postby collbey » Sun Apr 11, 2021 7:20 am

Chase and Pitts. I own 1.01 in a league where I am not close to competing, either going Chase or trading down a few spots to get Pitts.


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