Draft for Best Value, or Fill Desperate Needs in Rebuild?

[epsilonindi]

Team in the sig. Rookie draft #2 of a complete rebuild, got a couple good young guys last year, but my team has massive holes at QB and TE (as you all can see). I have the 1.01 and 1.03, and am wondering what to do with the 1.03. Obviously I can take a top RB at 1 (probably Harris), but at 3 should I take the player with the highest perceived value (probably either Etienne or Chase, whoever doesn't go at 1.02) or fill one of my desperate needs (either Lawrence or Pitts)? It's a 16-team league, so it feels like QB and TE are respectively more scarce than usual 12-team leagues, so having one of Lawrence or Pitts could be a huge advantage, and they also feel like longer-term investments than RB (since TE usually takes a few years, and good QBs last forever). Unfortunately, waiting for my next pick at 2.03 I'll probably miss out on Fields at QB and Freiermuth at TE as well, so passing on those means settling for the 3rd-tier (Lance/Jones and Jordan).

Undoubtedly the easiest solution would be to trade down from 1.03 to the middle of the draft to get a Lawrence or Fields there, but the league I'm in is pretty difficult (not to mention frustrating) to trade in, most of the other owners practically demand to take my lunch money whenever I send trade offers, so I'm not confident I can make such a move.

Having a RB corps of Taylor/Harris/Etienne would be great, but won't do me much good if they age out by the time I've got a QB and TE scoring well too. Or I could also reset and sell off DK and Taylor and keep pushing value to the future. Am I trying to rush my rebuild?

I'm wondering like philosophically when in a rebuild do you guys feel like you have to fill holes vs. just gain value?

[StripesOfKC]

Chase is my best player and ideal for a rebuild

Pitts is my next best player, fills a need and is also perfect for a rebuild

Those are my picks

I would take a look at packaging some seconds to move up for Lawrence if possible but those would be my picks (tentatively)

[krtbuckeye]

The most glaring thing I wanted to address to start is DK. Unless you’re getting a big overpay, there’s no need to move him to push out to the future. He’s a young, top 3 dynasty WR and fits both win now and rebuilds. Same with Taylor...yes, I’d prefer to focus on QB and WR in a rebuild, but if you’ve got a 2nd year stud who’s on his rookie contract for 3 more years losing him will set the rebuild back more than push it forward here, IMO (again, outside of a gross overpay).

In a 16 team 1QB, I tend to value QBs similarly to a 8-10 team SF. They’re not necessarily the end all be all, but definitely a value bump to try to get an advantage there. Chase would still be my 1.01 in this format, and at 1.03 I could see going many different routes: trade back a bit to add assets and get Lawrence (ideally I’d want to come out of this 1st round with Chase and Lawrence); take Harris if he’s there on value alone; bundle as many 2nds as necessary to get back into the 1st in order to land 2 top non-QBs and Lawrence; draft Pitts if you are willing to burn that kind of draft capital in a rookie TE (this would be my least favorite of these options).

[failblazer]

My philosophy for rebuilds is that you have no pressing needs other than talent. It doesn't matter which QB or TE you plug into your lineup if you don't expect to be competitive this season and oftentimes it is better to completely punt a position and make it easier to secure higher draft picks for next season. Take the players that you think are a) the most talented and b) have the highest chance to spike in trade value.

Also, if you're missing out on Fields or Freiermuth at 2.03 then rejoice. That means WRs and potentially RBs are slipping down the board to you because other owners are overdrafting need positions. I exclusively play in 16 team leagues and I get that it can be frustrating to find a QB when 4-6 more are starting than in 10-12 team leagues but don't forget that it also means another 8-12 running backs are starting every week and 12-18 WRs are starting. Getting 3-5 top 25 receivers is a huge advantage when you know that 48 are starting every single week (and that's before injuries, suspension, bye weeks, ebbs and flows in form etc etc).

If you find that QBs are valued highly in your league then take a punt on some guys with those late 2nds if they are available. Trey Lance is an ideal guy to get as he offers massive potential upside, shouldn't hurt you by scoring too many points year one and will likely be devalued because he is less likely to offer immediate payoff.

[abloom]

I think that you are in a very interesting postion. I'm going to dive quickly into your team before writing up my opinion:

Team 1: 16-team dynasty, non-PPR, 20-man roster, salary cap w/o contracts (currently using 63% of the cap), no taxi squad
Starters: 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, K, DST
16 team non-PPR certainly stresses those RBs, especially with a must start 2. I see there is no flex position, is that correct? Maybe you can expand a bit upon how the salary cap works and what your key players are currently capped for?

QB: Haskins, Mariota
Well this group sucks lol. Definitely need to address this especially in a 16 team league. Either need to acquire an older vet like a Tannehill or invest via the draft. Perhaps even do both and go Brady + Rookie?

RB: Taylor, Moss, Hasty, Ahmed, Malcolm Brown
you have Taylor, looking good. Moss as a #2 in a 16 teamer i'm fine with. Brown is interesting in Miami, but I fear they will draft a RB. Certainly want to invest in this postion, but even if you don't, its not horrible with JT up top. Of course in this league, the more RBs the better.

WR: Metcalf, Lamb, Mims, G.Davis, Cephus, J.Washington, Tyler Johnson, Collin Johnson
Now this is a good WR group. The fact that its non-PPR means I'm less interested in investing in this position, I think it actually increases the value of players like Metcalf who may not get that many catches but do have a chance due to their speed and play design to score TDs. Lamb I think is going to be a stud. Mims I think I'd like to shop after the NFL draft where presumably NYJ will draft a new QB at 1.02. I'm not sure that offense is anywhere near good enough anytime soon and I think you can move Mims for something of more value. Davis I like. Cephus you may as well keep and see what happens in Det (doubt there is anyone who would trade for him). pretty much ditto for the rest of your roster. But the way I see it, you have 4 WRs I probably feel pretty good starting in a 16 team league, and I think thats a good position to be in.

TE: Trautman, Harrison Bryant
Certainly have upside here. I'd be interested in knowing who else is available here, but I doubt there is much. Obviously a risky position here, not really sure I want to invest much in this postion because it would cost a lot to get a Kelce, Kittle, Waller, and without a PPR or any type of bonus the rest of the TEs are going to be TD dependent for the most part (even more so than they are normally). I may be interested in going out and acquiring Jared Cook if you can get him cheap. He could be very interesting out in LAC.

2021 picks: 1.01, 1.03, 2.03, 2.04, 2.08, 2.11, 3.05, 4.01, 4.16, 5.01
The good news you got picks. The bad news: there are 16 picks per round so your 2.03 is the 19th overall pick. The good news: I think its fine to draft one or two of the top 5 QBs (Lawrence, Fields, Lance, Wilson, Jones) at 2.03 and 2.04 if you so desire in a 16 team league. Out of curiosity, where did you end up last year ie. which picks are yours?

2022 picks: Rd 1 (x2), Rd 2, Rd 3 (x2), Rd 4 (x2), Rd 5
2022 isn't looking strong for RB at the moment, though anything could change between now and the rookie draft. Additionally important to keep reminding myself that there are 16 picks per round. Those two firsts may be worth more as trade bait than to actually draft.

2023 picks: Rd 1, Rd 2, Rd 3, Rd 4 (x2), Rd 5
If you have access to 2023 picks, I like the idea of trying to acquire these picks, since they are further out now and people may not really think much of them. Of course the big question is how likely is the league to still exist in 2023? How long has it been running for?


Overall:
For a 16 team league, non-ppr league, I don't think you are actually in horrible shape thanks to haivng JT (probably the 1.01/1.02 in startup) and your draft picks.

Suggestion:
There is one thing in your post that really makes me want to go in one direction:
the league I'm in is pretty difficult (not to mention frustrating) to trade in, most of the other owners practically demand to take my lunch money whenever I send trade offers, so I'm not confident I can make such a move.
So how many trades in the league (in total not just with you) are made each year. Is it a lot? If it is a lot, it may be that your values may be different than you league, if there are not a lot of trades done, it may mean that everyone one is looking to win a trade opposed to just trying to improve teams.

IF there are just not that many trades made per year, I think using 1.01 for Harris and 1.03 for Lawrence is fine. Otherwise I would try to move down a bit with the 1.03 or move up a bit with your 2nd rounders and go Harris 1.01, Pitts/WR 1.03 and QB where you move up.

BUT:
If I could come out of the draft with the following team:

QB: Lawrence, Lance, Jones
RB: JT, Harris, Moss, junk
WR: Metcalf, Lamb, Mims, G Davis, junk
TE: Trautman, Bryant, Cook

I'd be perfectly happy looking to compete. Obviously I'd still love some more RBs in a league setup like this, but I think it would be a fine result, and this is even being crazy and trying to take 3 QBs.


(Edited in after posting and reading some of the other responses: I see that people are saying take Chase 1.01, I think that is a big mistake if (1) there is not a lot of trading in this league and (2) its a non-ppr. Chase may be a nice rebuilding piece in a PPR league, but I'm not actually convinced you truely need to rebuild. Additionally rebuilding is a lot harder without trade partners.)

[Gator Sens]

First off, I would be holding Metcalf outside of a ridiculous overpay. Based on your multi year rebuild, I would be looking WR but that's just me. Smith and Chase give you hope for the long term game while RBs can fluctuate so much year to year. TE would also not be a priority to me. I would be looking QB with your early 2nd though and hopefully you can lock up Lawrence in a 1 QB league for a long term starter (in theory).

[epsilonindi]

16 team non-PPR certainly stresses those RBs, especially with a must start 2. I see there is no flex position, is that correct? Maybe you can expand a bit upon how the salary cap works and what your key players are currently capped for?

Salaries are assigned somehow by MFL, and increase by 10% every year until put on waivers, when the player's salary returns to a minimum value of $9.60. Total cap is $450, and my highest-paid players are Taylor ($34.32), Lamb ($26.40), and DK ($22.40).

Brown is interesting in Miami, but I fear they will draft a RB. Certainly want to invest in this postion, but even if you don't, its not horrible with JT up top. Of course in this league, the more RBs the better.

Yeah I'm not expecting anything out of Hasty/Brown/Ahmed. Maybe one will pop enough to get a future draft pick out of one of them, that's it.

Now this is a good WR group.

I've seen others above this advise going for Chase and Pitts, but the fact that the league is standard scoring makes me worry about that, I agree. RBs are so valuable in standard, but I don't want to take them too early in my rebuild. Then again, it's now that I find myself with great opportunities at taking Chase and Pitts who are great prospects that don't come along very often, so maybe I take the plunge with those two and address RBs in the next couple of years (if I draft highly enough to do so, who knows?). If my team has just a little bit more success next year, I could be out of the range of the top RBs again.

Out of curiosity, where did you end up last year ie. which picks are yours?

Oh, I finished dead last. The 1.01 is mine, I had previously packaged the 2.01 to get back up to 1.03. Hilarious, I don't know what I was thinking since now I'm thinking about trading back down. Dope.

Of course the big question is how likely is the league to still exist in 2023? How long has it been running for?

It's been running for like ten years, I only joined a couple years ago. I'm not too afraid of it fading away.

So how many trades in the league (in total not just with you) are made each year. Is it a lot? If it is a lot, it may be that your values may be different than you league, if there are not a lot of trades done, it may mean that everyone one is looking to win a trade opposed to just trying to improve teams.

The trades in our league are kind of weird. There seem to be several owners who just don't trade. There are other owners that are frustrating to deal with, and others with weird evaluations of players and value. For example, one owner sent me an offer of three firsts for DK/Lamb/Taylor, and then turned around and traded Hockenson to another owner for Lenny+Engram despite being in a rebuild. My sense so far has been that (outside of a few owners), most absolutely want to win a trade HARD.

What I sense out of many of these responses is that it's okay to look at filling QB/TE holes instead of just stocking up on valuable pieces, and more responses I think are not laser-focused on Pitts (which honestly I was up until a couple days ago).

Thanks for the time and advise.

[abloom]

So how many trades in the league (in total not just with you) are made each year. Is it a lot? If it is a lot, it may be that your values may be different than you league, if there are not a lot of trades done, it may mean that everyone one is looking to win a trade opposed to just trying to improve teams.

The trades in our league are kind of weird. There seem to be several owners who just don't trade. There are other owners that are frustrating to deal with, and others with weird evaluations of players and value. For example, one owner sent me an offer of three firsts for DK/Lamb/Taylor, and then turned around and traded Hockenson to another owner for Lenny+Engram despite being in a rebuild. My sense so far has been that (outside of a few owners), most absolutely want to win a trade HARD.

What I sense out of many of these responses is that it's okay to look at filling QB/TE holes instead of just stocking up on valuable pieces, and more responses I think are not laser-focused on Pitts (which honestly I was up until a couple days ago).

Thanks for the time and advise.

To me this screams compete then. Rebuilds really do require trading to make them go faster, otherwise you need to draft players that don't do too well (because then your pick gets worse) but aren't horrible (because otherwise why did you draft them) and it requires you to hit a lot. I'll stay by my original suggestion and go for RB/QB in this format. If you can trade down from 1.03 a bit, then wonderful. But I don't think you are in horrible shape if you go Harris (or your favorite RB at 1.01) and then Lawrence at 1.03. And those 2nd rounders, if there aren't some promising positional rookies there (WR or TE) i'm happy grabbing more QBs.

[epsilonindi]

I'll stay by my original suggestion and go for RB/QB in this format. If you can trade down from 1.03 a bit, then wonderful. But I don't think you are in horrible shape if you go Harris (or your favorite RB at 1.01) and then Lawrence at 1.03. And those 2nd rounders, if there aren't some promising positional rookies there (WR or TE) i'm happy grabbing more QBs.

Some other advice I've gotten is to trade down a bit from the 1.01, and then grab Pitts + Lawrence. Then I'd have potentially elite playmakers at QB and TE for a long time (guys like Pitts and Lawrence don't come along very often), my RB2 spot is junk this year which helps my draft position in 2022, and I have two firsts next year to hopefully load up on RBs in what is hopefully a better and deeper class than this year.

What do you think of this? My only concern is that (especially in standard), no TE ever really scores as well as an elite RB, but on the other hand I'm also concerned 2-3 years from now neither Harris nor Etienne will be considered elite.