C. Ridley (+) vs. A. Ekeler (+)

This is the place for team advice - should I make this trade, should I draft that player, etc.

Pick a side:

Calvin Ridley + 2023 3rd
10
77%
Austin Ekeler + 2022 2nd (mid-high)
3
23%
 
Total votes: 13

kmbryant09
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C. Ridley (+) vs. A. Ekeler (+)

Postby kmbryant09 » Wed Mar 17, 2021 7:00 am

For my team in sig:

QB - K. Murray, J. Hurts, B. Mayfield
RB - C. Edwards-Helaire, M. Sanders, J.K. Dobbins, A. Gibson, C. Edmonds, M. Gaskin, T. Pollard
WR - A.J. Brown, T. Higgins, C. Ridley, Di. Johnson, O. Beckham Jr., J. Reagor, D. Mooney
TE - E. Engram, I. Smith Jr., R. Gronkowski

Give:
Calvin Ridley + 2023 3rd

Get:
Austin Ekeler + 2022 2nd (projected mid-high)

Thoughts?
10-team/.5 PPR/5 Pts per Passing TD. Start 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, 2FLEX (rb/wr/te)
QB: J. Hurts, K. Murray
RB: Bi. Robinson, D. Henry, D. Achane, , J. Cook, Z. Charbonnet, T. Chandler, R. Johnson, K. Mitchell, J.K. Dobbins, T. Allgeier, J. McLaughlin, S. Tucker, T. Bigsby
WR: G. Wilson, B. Aiyuk, J. Waddle, T. Higgins,, Z. Flowers, Di. Johnson, K. Toney, A. Iosivas
TE: K. Pitts, E. Engram, C. Okonkwo, G. Dulcich

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krtbuckeye
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Re: C. Ridley (+) vs. A. Ekeler (+)

Postby krtbuckeye » Wed Mar 17, 2021 7:03 am

I would much rather have Ridley.
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🏆 2020, 2021, 2022
🥈 2018, 2019

10 Team SF, PPR, Roster: 33+2 IR+2 Taxi
Start: QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, TE, SF, FLX (RB/WR), K, 2 DL, LB, 2 DB, 2 IDP FLX

**IDP scoring is TKL heavy (1.0 solo and asst), no QBH or TFL.**

QB: Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts
RB: Jahmyr Gibbs, D’Andre Swift, Jerome Ford, Khalil Herbert, Jaleel McLaughlin, Ty Chandler, Michael Carter, Isaiah Spiller, Chase Brown, Evan Hull (IR), Sean Tucker
WR: Amon-Ra St. Brown, DeVonta Smith, Tee Higgins, Jordan Addison, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Josh Palmer, Demario Douglas, Alec Pierce, Michael Wilson, Jalin Hyatt, Kayshon Boutte (Taxi)
TE: Sam LaPorta, Trey McBride
K: Jake Elliott
DL: Danielle Hunter, Aiden Hutchinson, Jaelan Phillips (IR)
LB: Bobby Wagner, Jordyn Brooks, Logan Wilson, Ernest Jones
DB: Derwin James, Brian Branch

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Re: C. Ridley (+) vs. A. Ekeler (+)

Postby HughHoney » Wed Mar 17, 2021 7:09 am

I’m much higher on Ekeler than most but this is still Ridley pretty easily for me.

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Re: C. Ridley (+) vs. A. Ekeler (+)

Postby jwb32 » Wed Mar 17, 2021 7:10 am

Ridley easily in a vacuum.....Ridley even easier for your roster
TEAM 1: 12 team league. 1.0 PPR WR/TE 0.5 PPR RB
Start 1QB, 2RBs, 3WRs, 2Flex, 1TE, 1DST
QBs- Lamar, Wentz
RBs- Javonte,Sanders, Michel,Howard,JJackson,JWilson
WRs- DJM,McLaurin,Higgins,DeVonta Smith,Jeudy, OBJ,Bateman,Treadwell,Crowder
TEs- Fant, Muth,Irv Smith
1.07,1.11,3.09

TEAM 2: 12 team league. 0.1 ppc 0.5 ppr. TE 1 ppr
Start 1QB, 2RBs, 3WRs, 2Flex, 1TE,
QBs-Watson, Davis, Huntley
RBs- Javonte,Akers, ETN,Gore,Dallas
WRs- McClaurin,DJM,Godwin,Diontae,MarquiseBr, Mooney,Van Jefferson,Collins,Atwell
TEs- Hock, Kmet,Trautman,AlbertO
1.04, 2.04, 4.04

TEAM 3: 12 team league. 0.5 ppr, 0.5/fd
Start 1QB, 2RBs, 2WRs, 2Flex, 1TE,
QBs- Lamar,Stafford
RBs- JT, Fournette, DHarris,Chuba,Collins,Gaskin,DHarris,Penny,Murray, Snell
WRs- Chase, DJM, Allen, Bateman, Julio, ElijahM, Mims, Crowder
TEs- Waller, Morneau,Njoku
2022 1st, 2nd (2), 3rd (2)

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Re: C. Ridley (+) vs. A. Ekeler (+)

Postby zaner75 » Wed Mar 17, 2021 8:08 am

You can start 2-4 RB and I count 4 decent options already on your roster. You can start 3-5 WR and trading Ridley would leave you with 3 decent options imo. I would sit tight as I think this weakens your roster more than helps it.

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Re: C. Ridley (+) vs. A. Ekeler (+)

Postby Gator Sens » Wed Mar 17, 2021 8:10 am

Ridley + pretty easily for me all factors considered. Ridley is easily a top 10 dynasty WR in my book though.

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Re: C. Ridley (+) vs. A. Ekeler (+)

Postby kmbryant09 » Wed Mar 17, 2021 11:19 am

Sounds like most (if not all) don't like this deal for me - unfortunately it's one that I already made.

Reasons I made the trade:
  • I'm banking on 2020 being Calvin Ridley's career year. With looming question marks with their coaching staff (bringing in a run-first guy), Matt Ryan's future (declining play & time left with the team), and passing volume (Ryan has been top3 in pass attempts each of the past 3 seasons) - I'm guessing we just saw Ridley's ceiling.
  • Calvin Ridley's talent - I think he's a very good, non-elite WR in the NFL. When paired with the above concerns, I think he'll prove to be a solid top15 WR for multiple seasons, but not the kind of asset that is an annual top5 guy like T. Hill, D. Adams, J. Jones, etc.
  • I don't think we've seen Austin Ekeler's best season yet. He's been top10 in ppg production each of the past 2 years, and 2021 is shaping up to be his best opportunity. The offense should be legit with Herbert under center, and they just added 2 great run-blockers to that O-Line. I think Ekeler will flirt with top5 production moving forward.
  • RB production >>> WR production. In reality, solid RB production is much more valuable than solid WR production. While 2020 Davante Adams & 2019 Michael Thomas production can be league winning, we are seeing a trend of more WR production available around the league. I don't anticipate Ridley putting up game-changing seasons, and think his production can be more easily replaced down the line than an elite RB production.
  • The pick swap is not negligible. The 2022 2nd is from a team that missed the playoffs last year and has no picks to replenish their team this year. There's a real chance it's pick #10 - 13. The 2023 3rd, albeit a year out, *should* project to be a late pick - meaning I'd be getting an early 2nd next year at the cost of a late 3rd the year after.
I guess I don't really need to convince anyone on here to do the trade - just mostly thinking out loud after executing this trade (it was accepted unexpectedly after sitting in his inbox for a few days).

I appreciate all of your thoughts - even if they disagree with my own!
10-team/.5 PPR/5 Pts per Passing TD. Start 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, 2FLEX (rb/wr/te)
QB: J. Hurts, K. Murray
RB: Bi. Robinson, D. Henry, D. Achane, , J. Cook, Z. Charbonnet, T. Chandler, R. Johnson, K. Mitchell, J.K. Dobbins, T. Allgeier, J. McLaughlin, S. Tucker, T. Bigsby
WR: G. Wilson, B. Aiyuk, J. Waddle, T. Higgins,, Z. Flowers, Di. Johnson, K. Toney, A. Iosivas
TE: K. Pitts, E. Engram, C. Okonkwo, G. Dulcich

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Re: C. Ridley (+) vs. A. Ekeler (+)

Postby yinzername » Wed Mar 17, 2021 12:32 pm

Excellent breakdown. As an Ekeler owner I’m very enthused by your assessment and really hope u are right on!
SF - PPR - 12t - start10
Notable Assets in Rebuild
QB: Mahomes - Levis - Rudolph
RB: K Mitchell - J McLaughlin - C Rodriguez - Z Evans
WR: AJB - M Pittman- R Doubs - E Moore - Shaheed - C Tillman- A Iosivas
TE: MAndrews - Kraft
'24: 1.1, 1.7, 2.1, 2.6, 2.10, 3.1, 4.2, 4.7
‘25: 1 1st, 2 2nds, 2 3rds

1st YEAR START-UP
SF - PPR - 12t - start10
QB: TLaw - Purdy - Goff
RB: Chubb - D Montgomery - D Singletary - A Mattison - K Miller - R Freeman - J Hill
WR: CeeDee - Diggs - Aiyuk - Godwin - J Reed - E Moore - A Pierce - C Tillman
TE: Kittle - Kincaid

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Re: C. Ridley (+) vs. A. Ekeler (+)

Postby tsarpepe » Wed Mar 17, 2021 8:43 pm

I don't think we've seen Ridley's ceiling yet. I mean, the guy finished as overall WR5 in PPR while being the WR2 on his team. He could have easily been WR4 if not for a missed game.

You may very well be right, and I may very well be wrong. But the fact is that most owners in dynasty see Ridley this way. And this translates into value on the market >> Ekeler. We trade for players, but also for assets; and there's no doubt in my mind that Ridley is the much better asset now.

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Re: C. Ridley (+) vs. A. Ekeler (+)

Postby kmbryant09 » Thu Mar 18, 2021 1:56 pm

tsarpepe wrote: Wed Mar 17, 2021 8:43 pm I don't think we've seen Ridley's ceiling yet. I mean, the guy finished as overall WR5 in PPR while being the WR2 on his team. He could have easily been WR4 if not for a missed game.

You may very well be right, and I may very well be wrong. But the fact is that most owners in dynasty see Ridley this way. And this translates into value on the market >> Ekeler. We trade for players, but also for assets; and there's no doubt in my mind that Ridley is the much better asset now.
You may very well be right as well, and I do agree we are trading for assets nearly as much as we are trading for players + production. And in that sense I am definitely taking a short-term hit in the value of my portfolio that is my dynasty roster.

As for Ridley's ceiling - 150 targets is a number only a handful of receivers hit each year, and even fewer receivers consistently approach / hit that number year-in and year-out. I have my doubts that Ridley hits that number if Julio stays healthy, or if Ryan doesn't lead the league in pass attempts. Moving forward, I don't think it's safe to pencil in Ridley for 150+ targets and 2020-level efficiency.

Beyond a few truly elite WR's that typically have a 4+ year run of top5 - top10 production (OBJ, Julio, A.J. Green, AB), historically many of those 2nd & 3rd tier WR talents see their year-over-year production fluctuate quite significantly. It's why Chris Godwin saw such a reduction last year (and an increase in 2019) and why I thought he was a screaming sell last off-season. Yes, he's a very talented WR who was a top5 producer in 2019. I just think that level of production was more attributable to a perfect storm of situation (gunslinger QB, lack of competition for targets, bad defense, high volume - sound familiar?) rather than just purely reflective of Godwin's talent. My guess is most dynasty owners view Godwin as the same exact TALENT right now that they did after 2019, but I guarantee you his value is lower because his production regressed. He went from a near-consensus top3 WR to a borderline top10 WR through no fault of his own - and I just think something similar will happen to Ridley - maybe not to the extent of Godwin, but hopefully you get my point.

Bottom line - (in my opinion) Ridley is very talented but not elite. Talented enough to be a safe and likely WR 2 for the next handful of years - but I'm betting his 2020 elite production was more a product of his circumstances than his talent.
10-team/.5 PPR/5 Pts per Passing TD. Start 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, 2FLEX (rb/wr/te)
QB: J. Hurts, K. Murray
RB: Bi. Robinson, D. Henry, D. Achane, , J. Cook, Z. Charbonnet, T. Chandler, R. Johnson, K. Mitchell, J.K. Dobbins, T. Allgeier, J. McLaughlin, S. Tucker, T. Bigsby
WR: G. Wilson, B. Aiyuk, J. Waddle, T. Higgins,, Z. Flowers, Di. Johnson, K. Toney, A. Iosivas
TE: K. Pitts, E. Engram, C. Okonkwo, G. Dulcich


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