Dynasty League Takeover - which way to go

[ProfPoobah]

In response to the discussion on my Jamaal Williams post (and my thanks to Gator Sens, krtbuckeye, and Edgy68 for their help there!), I'm fleshing out my whole league situation...

I took over an orphaned team in an established dynasty league about a month ago. It's my first dynasty league, and first timing using IDP in about 20 years. 29 roster spots and a taxi squad of rookies (keeping 1 of these, 2 at the absolute most). 10 teams, .5 PPR, start QB/2RB/2WR/TE/3 Flex (RB/WR/TE)/DL/2LB/DB. The league has now recently decided to go Superflex and add a spot for it in the lineup come 2024. SO, more of a learning curve...

I've made several trades, building the depth of my RB/WR up while shedding half of the 6 TE the previous owner left me with (*shrug*), and adding some younger players while moving out older ones. But I find myself at a crossroads. If Stafford and/or Wentz benefit from new surroundings enough to provide low-end QB1 numbers, and if one of my RBs behind Jones and Harris step up, and if I hit on a rookie or two in my first draft, this is a team that could maybe contend for the 4th playoff spot (top two teams seem way out there, and they coincidentally have 1/2 of the top 20 RBs between them, so Harris is a legitimate low-end starter at this point - *shakes head*). Or is it?

If it's not, I understand conventional wisdom is to carve out usable assets to amass draft picks. And I think I'm at a crossroads. I received an offer of pick 3.01 for Jamaal Williams. If Aaron Jones leaves GB and he stays, this seems like a bad trade (or does it? He'd still split at best with Dillon, right?). If he leaves GB, he's what? A low-end starter somewhere, a placeholder for a rookie, in a time-share? Anyway, part of me thinks that if I open the door on Williams, then maybe I should consider moving on from others. Aaron Jones? Yikes! Stafford? Any defense players I can get a pick for (unlikely, considering I found Hunter, Mosley, and Simmons on the wire)? My top 4 WR, all of whom turn 28 or 29 this year?

I'd welcome your thoughts on where to go with all of this...

Team
QB - Stafford/Wentz/Carr/Hill (just added him today)
RB - A. Jones/D. Harris/Singletary/Henderson/Snell/M. Brown/J. Williams
WR - Golladay/Anderson/Kupp/Lockett/Pittman/Reagor/Cephus/J. Washington
TE - Andrews/Fant/Knox
DL - JJ Watt/D. Hunter
LB - D. Davis/B. Wagner/CJ Mosley
DB - B. Baker/J. Simmons

Taxi squad - Bowden (RB/WR), Benjamin (RB), Gross-Matos (DL), Gay (LB), KJ Hill (WR)

Current picks:
2021 - #12, #22, #26, #36, #45, #46
2022 - 1st, 2 2nd, 2 3rd, 2 4th, 5th
2023 - 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 2 4th, 5th

[Gator Sens]

You need a decent amount of factors to play out in your favor to make a push. Obviously the NFL and fantasy is so different year to year that anything can happen. I think Harris will get lots of touches this year and maybe makes a big jump. Henderson should still get a handful of touches. Your wr core should provide decent points, but not elite numbers. The upside is there though. I think you did a solid job of turning this roster into a much better option than what you took over by the sounds of it. In the immediate, this is a middle of the pack team with upside. You could also hold and see how you come out the first few weeks before looking at tinkering to help now or looking more long term. I would still hold Williams for the current offer.

[krtbuckeye]

I think this roster is worth rolling out early to see how things look. There is a lot of potential there, but as Gator mentioned, it’s going to take a few things falling your way to compete. If it is looking bleak for 2021 after a few weeks, I wouldn’t be opposed to blowing it up, but I don’t see a reason to do that yet. I would hold off on moving Williams until the GB situation sorts out this offseason. The value n hm slitting time both Dillon is that he becomes a high value handcuff in a great offense. I don’t mind having handcuffs for my own guys, but I much prefer having high value handcuffs of other owners’ stud RBs because if the starter gets injured, I’m gaining an additional starting option, not just putting on a bandaid, and there is a lot of trade value to be gained in that situation. Desperation is a great overpay catalyst.

[Edgy68]

Studs win 10-team leagues. You are correct to foresee issues competing, especially with three flex spots, but I agree that you may have to let a bit of next season play out before you make any more aggressive moves. Most of the players you could sell will be more valuable when they are putting up points.

Even though Stafford, Wentz, and Carr don’t make an intimidating QB core, the move to SF should not leave you scrambling at the position. It sounds like the full move doesn’t happen until 2024. But even if I’m wrong, no QB trade should go down without you getting an exciting young QB prospect or a pick that has has a high likelihood of becoming one back. I could see trading Hill for more liquid assets due to his unstable situation, but having 3 starters is a nice number on which to focus.

As you’ve most likely read, WRs tend to hold value longer while RBs are usually the final piece to building a contender. Over the next year or two, you’ll be better able to gauge how competitive you will be. Sell productive RBs that won’t be when your window opens. The IDP looks shallow, so unless the scoring is tweaked to make it on par with offense scoring, I wouldn’t worry about that end until you build a strong offense. You have some nice pieces, just don’t be in a redraft-style hurry to compete. That’s a recipe for stretching out a rebuild.

[ProfPoobah]

I ended up favoring the acquisition of picks for 2022, because with this being my first dynasty draft coming up, I felt like I would capitalize on things more next year. I don't think I have anyone left that really needs to go now - moved Gurley, Beasley, Logan Thomas, Ebron, and Watkins. I'd trade Malcolm Brown if I could get anything for him. Same with JJ Watt. I just wish the former owner had something in the cupboard (taxi squad) for me better than Lynn Bowden and Eno Benjamin, at best.

[Shoreline Steamers]

I ended up favoring the acquisition of picks for 2022, because with this being my first dynasty draft coming up, I felt like I would capitalize on things more next year. I don't think I have anyone left that really needs to go now - moved Gurley, Beasley, Logan Thomas, Ebron, and Watkins. I'd trade Malcolm Brown if I could get anything for him. Same with JJ Watt. I just wish the former owner had something in the cupboard (taxi squad) for me better than Lynn Bowden and Eno Benjamin, at best.

Maybe with Watt signing in Arizona someone will be interested now? Just a thought, since the wondering over where he'll play next year is over.

[Adam_172]

10 team league so you need studs.

Try and package 2-4-1 deals if you can.

[CGW]

You are likely a middling team and that's usually not a good spot to be. Your RBs are shallow and you WR are all aging. In a year or so they will all have lost almost all their current value due to age. I'd make the call early this season to rebuild or not. Give it 3-4 weeks and see how things look. One of the biggest changes from redraft to dynasty is the rookie draft and the order that sets it. Smart owners know when to compete and when to fold for a better draft pick (just like the actual NFL.)

I'd start shopping pretty much everyone. Jones, Golladay, Kupp, Lockett should all return some picks/assets. If you can secure one or two good 1sts over the next year or two you will be back in the thick of it.

[ProfPoobah]

Thanks to all for their opinions. I did move Williams for a 2022 3rd and a 2023 4th, and then after JuJu re-signed with PIT, traded James Washington for $8 FAAB. Made a couple of minor moves as you can see by my sig, though I like both Newton in the short term and Love in the long term. Still in a holding pattern, gonna do my first draft, and be ready to pivot to rebuild quickly if this team doesn't take off fast.