Ever wonder why you get such bad trade offers

[CGW]

Almost everyone over values their own players. That and everyone tries to benefit their own teams when trading more than the trade partners team.

[zaner75]

For some context, the take I pasted was in an article titled, '8 Dynasty Players to Buy Low/Sell High' on what I think is a fairly well-known site. The final sentence of the intro was, "Read on to see who our featured analysts think are the best buy-low and sell-high candidates ahead of the NFL’s free agency period."
I learned long ago that many fantasy experts were not necessarily more qualified than I am but you find some who offer reasonable, informed, thoughtful analysis. I like to consume all fantasy content to broaden my understanding of other perspectives so I don't get locked into confirmation bias or group-think, but I found that take so out of touch with the reality I am experiencing that it makes me think that he is uninformed.
I'm sure we will all continue to deal with terrible offers and terrible trades (I think there are threads about both). What I find great about the people in this forum is that there are experienced people willing to share rational advice and people wanting to get more informed in order to make themselves a better fantasy player. Cheers all!

[briank]

Going through my daily fantasy reading and came across this gem. Check out this "expert" advice:

Lamar Jackson (QB – BAL)
“This time last year, Jackson was being taken as the No. 1 or No. 2 QB in dynasty leagues. A rough start to the season plummeted Jackson’s value, but he ended the season on a high note. Jackson was the QB2 over the final five weeks of the season, proving that he is still a top-tier fantasy QB. If you’re in a dynasty Superflex league, I’d be willing to spend a mid-to-late first-round draft pick along with an aging WR1 such as Julio Jones or Adam Thielen to acquire Jackson’s services.”
– Jacob W. Dunne (New Life Fantasy)

I guess anyone can create their own website and call themselves an expert. I would trust everyone in this forum more than this guy. Thanks for making this community great!

I'm not a big fan of crapping on other peoples work regardless of how bad it is.

There a few reasons people send bad offers:

First and foremost, most people are bad at player valuations and especially bad with the ebbs and flows of value. Recency bias is unbelievably powerful in this community.

Too many people think they need to clearly win a trade.

People also think that starting with a low ball offer is a good way to start negotiating. For me, it's the opposite. It tells me that they aren't serious about getting a deal done and it ends the negotiation before it starts. It also tells me that this owner isn't reasonable and it makes me less likely to go to them with offers.

I also think people overvalue their players due to them drafting them, loyalty, that one good year, etc.

John

Agreed.

[Gator Sens]

because my leaguemates think i'm an idiot (and they might be right!).

You and I may have that in common ha ha. I also feel like I get deals that are "explained" why it's good for my team.

If your leaguemates have seen you make bad trades then the smell is in the water and the sharks will throw bad trades at you more

I have never been shy to go out and get the assets I want to build around but I don't really make deals that I don't really want or like. I think I get a fair amount of offers both good and bad because of the number of trades I have made over the years. Inevitably, some of them did not turn out so well ha ha.

[briank]

Almost everyone over values their own players. That and everyone tries to benefit their own teams when trading more than the trade partners team.

Not everyone. I always try to think of trades from both sides. I try to offer trades that make sense for both teams and I try to make sure the value is at least close. I think anything else is a waste of time.

[zaner75]

Almost everyone over values their own players. That and everyone tries to benefit their own teams when trading more than the trade partners team.

Not everyone. I always try to think of trades from both sides. I try to offer trades that make sense for both teams and I try to make sure the value is at least close. I think anything else is a waste of time.

1000% agree with both statements!!

[Gator Sens]

Almost everyone over values their own players. That and everyone tries to benefit their own teams when trading more than the trade partners team.

Not everyone. I always try to think of trades from both sides. I try to offer trades that make sense for both teams and I try to make sure the value is at least close. I think anything else is a waste of time.

Agreed. You know when a trade offer has a chance to be accepted versus when there is no chance. A trade making sense for both sides is key in negotiations. The only time I see a difference is if someone is after an asset I flat will not move, I just say no thanks, I'm not moving that or player or if it's a player I really don't want to move, I will name a take it or leave it kind of price. My biggest weakness as an owner has always been really wanting certain players or flat not moving guys.

[CGW]

I also try to think of it from both sides, but even when I try to be as fair as possible I'm always trying to squeeze out another penny in a deal. And I dont think there is anything wrong with that. I play in only competitive leagues for cash prizes, so I have no issue with people trying to "win" trades.

[briank]

Almost everyone over values their own players. That and everyone tries to benefit their own teams when trading more than the trade partners team.

Not everyone. I always try to think of trades from both sides. I try to offer trades that make sense for both teams and I try to make sure the value is at least close. I think anything else is a waste of time.

Agreed. You know when a trade offer has a chance to be accepted versus when there is no chance. A trade making sense for both sides is key in negotiations. The only time I see a difference is if someone is after an asset I flat will not move, I just say no thanks, I'm not moving that or player or if it's a player I really don't want to move, I will name a take it or leave it kind of price. My biggest weakness as an owner has always been really wanting certain players or flat not moving guys.

Exactly, I'm pretty direct when talking trades. I'll tell them if I value one of my guys more than the consensus. I'll also explain if I value one of their players below the consensus. The best way to build good trade relationships is direct and fair communication.

[briank]

I also try to think of it from both sides, but even when I try to be as fair as possible I'm always trying to squeeze out another penny in a deal. And I dont think there is anything wrong with that. I play in only competitive leagues for cash prizes, so I have no issue with people trying to "win" trades.

I don't think that's a bad thing. My strategy is just a bit different. I identify guys on my team I want to sell. Then, I identify guys I value more than the consensus on another owner's team. I try to find something that makes sense for both teams and something the community views as fair value, but in my valuation I'm winning because I value that player or players higher than the consensus. There's more to it than that, but that's generally my strategy. Accumulate value, then consolidate it into a winner.

[Lumps]

Too many people think they need to clearly win a trade.

People also think that starting with a low ball offer is a good way to start negotiating. For me, it's the opposite. It tells me that they aren't serious about getting a deal done and it ends the negotiation before it starts. It also tells me that this owner isn't reasonable and it makes me less likely to go to them with offers.

Trying to “win” the trade should come from what you perceive as an undervalued asset vs. an overvalued asset. Not winning by sending 1 1st worth of value for 3. There is an owner in one of my leagues that offers trades in an onslaught to anyone and they are ALL like the above. Some have taken the offers and it’s created imbalance.

100% agreed on the lowball initial offer. “It’s a starting offer.” “It doesn’t hurt to try!” No actually it does. It tells me you are trying to do the above. You aren’t getting a counter when your initial is absurd.

I would also include this forum on the OPs initial thoughts. I have seen plenty of suggestions here where the counters or whatever are just 1000% in favor of one team.

Another bad offer situation is completely ignoring the other team. If they have 5 starting RBs and 2 WRs they aren’t likely interested in your CEH for Jefferson offer. When this happens it shows me the other team is just looking out for themselves and not being a trade partner. Even if you want a player, you may not get them and you have to understand that. Team dynamics might prevent it. I have a guy in one of my leagues that we discuss stuff all the time. We’ve only come out with maybe 2-3 trades over 3 years though. Sometimes it just doesn’t make sense for one of the teams, and that’s ok.

[jwb32]

Too many people think they need to clearly win a trade.

People also think that starting with a low ball offer is a good way to start negotiating. For me, it's the opposite. It tells me that they aren't serious about getting a deal done and it ends the negotiation before it starts. It also tells me that this owner isn't reasonable and it makes me less likely to go to them with offers.

Trying to “win” the trade should come from what you perceive as an undervalued asset vs. an overvalued asset. Not winning by sending 1 1st worth of value for 3. There is an owner in one of my leagues that offers trades in an onslaught to anyone and they are ALL like the above. Some have taken the offers and it’s created imbalance.

100% agreed on the lowball initial offer. “It’s a starting offer.” “It doesn’t hurt to try!” No actually it does. It tells me you are trying to do the above. You aren’t getting a counter when your initial is absurd.

I would also include this forum on the OPs initial thoughts. I have seen plenty of suggestions here where the counters or whatever are just 1000% in favor of one team.

Another bad offer situation is completely ignoring the other team. If they have 5 starting RBs and 2 WRs they aren’t likely interested in your CEH for Jefferson offer. When this happens it shows me the other team is just looking out for themselves and not being a trade partner. Even if you want a player, you may not get them and you have to understand that. Team dynamics might prevent it. I have a guy in one of my leagues that we discuss stuff all the time. We’ve only come out with maybe 2-3 trades over 3 years though. Sometimes it just doesn’t make sense for one of the teams, and that’s ok.

Bingo! Good stuff!

[krtbuckeye]

Too many people think they need to clearly win a trade.

People also think that starting with a low ball offer is a good way to start negotiating. For me, it's the opposite. It tells me that they aren't serious about getting a deal done and it ends the negotiation before it starts. It also tells me that this owner isn't reasonable and it makes me less likely to go to them with offers.

Trying to “win” the trade should come from what you perceive as an undervalued asset vs. an overvalued asset. Not winning by sending 1 1st worth of value for 3. There is an owner in one of my leagues that offers trades in an onslaught to anyone and they are ALL like the above. Some have taken the offers and it’s created imbalance.

100% agreed on the lowball initial offer. “It’s a starting offer.” “It doesn’t hurt to try!” No actually it does. It tells me you are trying to do the above. You aren’t getting a counter when your initial is absurd.

I would also include this forum on the OPs initial thoughts. I have seen plenty of suggestions here where the counters or whatever are just 1000% in favor of one team.

Another bad offer situation is completely ignoring the other team. If they have 5 starting RBs and 2 WRs they aren’t likely interested in your CEH for Jefferson offer. When this happens it shows me the other team is just looking out for themselves and not being a trade partner. Even if you want a player, you may not get them and you have to understand that. Team dynamics might prevent it. I have a guy in one of my leagues that we discuss stuff all the time. We’ve only come out with maybe 2-3 trades over 3 years though. Sometimes it just doesn’t make sense for one of the teams, and that’s ok.

Very true! Though sometimes I like getting absurd offers just so I can tell the other guy exactly why his offer sucks.

[briank]

Too many people think they need to clearly win a trade.

People also think that starting with a low ball offer is a good way to start negotiating. For me, it's the opposite. It tells me that they aren't serious about getting a deal done and it ends the negotiation before it starts. It also tells me that this owner isn't reasonable and it makes me less likely to go to them with offers.

Trying to “win” the trade should come from what you perceive as an undervalued asset vs. an overvalued asset. Not winning by sending 1 1st worth of value for 3. There is an owner in one of my leagues that offers trades in an onslaught to anyone and they are ALL like the above. Some have taken the offers and it’s created imbalance.

100% agreed on the lowball initial offer. “It’s a starting offer.” “It doesn’t hurt to try!” No actually it does. It tells me you are trying to do the above. You aren’t getting a counter when your initial is absurd.

I would also include this forum on the OPs initial thoughts. I have seen plenty of suggestions here where the counters or whatever are just 1000% in favor of one team.

Another bad offer situation is completely ignoring the other team. If they have 5 starting RBs and 2 WRs they aren’t likely interested in your CEH for Jefferson offer. When this happens it shows me the other team is just looking out for themselves and not being a trade partner. Even if you want a player, you may not get them and you have to understand that. Team dynamics might prevent it. I have a guy in one of my leagues that we discuss stuff all the time. We’ve only come out with maybe 2-3 trades over 3 years though. Sometimes it just doesn’t make sense for one of the teams, and that’s ok.

Very true! Though sometimes I like getting absurd offers just so I can tell the other guy exactly why his offer sucks.

Every once in a while, if the offer is bad enough, I'll counter with my worst player for his best player.

[Dynasty_Analyst]

Considering 5 qbs are going in the top 10 it’s not as crazy as it sounds, bad trade but at 6 you’ll likely have ettiene, chase, or at least on of Wilson/lance/chase. Any of those guys + Julio has a good amount of value. Not lamar Jackson, but a lot of value