CMC+ or DK+

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krtbuckeye
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CMC+ or DK+

Postby krtbuckeye » Wed Feb 24, 2021 6:15 am

I have to preface by saying that I’m trying to judge this deal on future value vs present. As best you can, try to evaluate this trade as if it were happening no sooner than next offseason, but with the pick values replaced by the prospective players in those pick tiers.

I give: CMC/1.08/2.10/Corey Davis
I get: DK/2021 lottery pick (top 4 locked, odds on 1.03 but could be anything 1.01-1.04, and I already hold the pick with odds on 1.04)

The reason for the future valuation is that the guy I beat in the championship is absolutely loaded, but got hit hard by injuries last year. His notable assets are Murray, Cook, Chubb, A. Jones, Mixon, Sanders, Hill, Thomas, J. Jones, Jeudy, Lamb, 2021 lottery pick (odds on 1.02). I’m easily the 2nd most competitive team but want to put myself in a position to sustain my window to keep up. Would moving CMC and these lesser picks now for a guy like DK and another top 4 guy from this year make sense vs riding out CMC until his trade value diminishes? The team that CMC would be going to is not a competitor and CMC doesn't even make him one.

Sorry for the long read, and this is for my sig team.
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10 Team SF, PPR, Roster: 33+2 IR+2 Taxi
Start: QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, TE, SF, FLX (RB/WR), K, 2 DL, LB, 2 DB, 2 IDP FLX

**IDP scoring is TKL heavy (1.0 solo and asst), no QBH or TFL.**

QB: Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts
RB: Jahmyr Gibbs, D’Andre Swift, Jerome Ford, Khalil Herbert, Jaleel McLaughlin, Ty Chandler, Michael Carter, Isaiah Spiller, Chase Brown, Evan Hull (IR), Sean Tucker
WR: Amon-Ra St. Brown, DeVonta Smith, Tee Higgins, Jordan Addison, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Josh Palmer, Demario Douglas, Alec Pierce, Michael Wilson, Jalin Hyatt, Kayshon Boutte (Taxi)
TE: Sam LaPorta, Trey McBride
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Re: CMC+ or DK+

Postby smmcfarl » Wed Feb 24, 2021 6:46 am

I think the value is close enough there to make this deal. I would be comfortable rolling with your other backs (JT, Swift, Gibson) and getting D.K. is a huge upgrade. Getting the extra early pick will help you lock in a couple top rookies and set you up great heading forward.
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Re: CMC+ or DK+

Postby heyfeefellskee » Wed Feb 24, 2021 6:55 am

Even if the pick was 1.01 and was for THIS YEAR, I think you'd be giving up too much, so I'm a little surprised that you are adding not only a 1st to CMC but Corey Davis as well. If you took out the 1.08 AND the pick was 1.01 this year, it would be roughly even. The fact that the pick *isn't* guaranteed to be the 1.01 *and* it's a year out makes it a deal I'm rejecting flat out. t's not about waiting for a pick--it's that your team will be a year older before you see the benefit of it, and a lot can change in a year.

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Re: CMC+ or DK+

Postby krtbuckeye » Wed Feb 24, 2021 7:11 am

heyfeefellskee wrote: Wed Feb 24, 2021 6:55 am Even if the pick was 1.01 and was for THIS YEAR, I think you'd be giving up too much, so I'm a little surprised that you are adding not only a 1st to CMC but Corey Davis as well. If you took out the 1.08 AND the pick was 1.01 this year, it would be roughly even. The fact that the pick *isn't* guaranteed to be the 1.01 *and* it's a year out makes it a deal I'm rejecting flat out. t's not about waiting for a pick--it's that your team will be a year older before you see the benefit of it, and a lot can change in a year.
The year out consideration really only applies to CMC and DK values. All picks involved are 2021’s. I get that that isn’t the main point of what you were getting at, but just wanted to clarify.
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10 Team SF, PPR, Roster: 33+2 IR+2 Taxi
Start: QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, TE, SF, FLX (RB/WR), K, 2 DL, LB, 2 DB, 2 IDP FLX

**IDP scoring is TKL heavy (1.0 solo and asst), no QBH or TFL.**

QB: Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts
RB: Jahmyr Gibbs, D’Andre Swift, Jerome Ford, Khalil Herbert, Jaleel McLaughlin, Ty Chandler, Michael Carter, Isaiah Spiller, Chase Brown, Evan Hull (IR), Sean Tucker
WR: Amon-Ra St. Brown, DeVonta Smith, Tee Higgins, Jordan Addison, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Josh Palmer, Demario Douglas, Alec Pierce, Michael Wilson, Jalin Hyatt, Kayshon Boutte (Taxi)
TE: Sam LaPorta, Trey McBride
K: Jake Elliott
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Re: CMC+ or DK+

Postby heyfeefellskee » Wed Feb 24, 2021 7:43 am

krtbuckeye wrote: Wed Feb 24, 2021 7:11 am
heyfeefellskee wrote: Wed Feb 24, 2021 6:55 am Even if the pick was 1.01 and was for THIS YEAR, I think you'd be giving up too much, so I'm a little surprised that you are adding not only a 1st to CMC but Corey Davis as well. If you took out the 1.08 AND the pick was 1.01 this year, it would be roughly even. The fact that the pick *isn't* guaranteed to be the 1.01 *and* it's a year out makes it a deal I'm rejecting flat out. t's not about waiting for a pick--it's that your team will be a year older before you see the benefit of it, and a lot can change in a year.
The year out consideration really only applies to CMC and DK values. All picks involved are 2021’s. I get that that isn’t the main point of what you were getting at, but just wanted to clarify.
Ok, i see that now--thanks.

So even *if* the pick in question turns out to be the 1.01, you are overpaying. Take out 1.08, and it's even. Take out Corey Davis, and it mitigates the risk of the unknown pick becoming 1.04.

I'm recommending the deal be: CMC for DK and his 2021 lottery pick (1.01 - 1.04).

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Re: CMC+ or DK+

Postby Gator Sens » Wed Feb 24, 2021 8:02 am

Metcalf is the best piece long term, but I also think you are giving up too much on the front end here. If you can hold out a pick or Davis even, I think its closer.

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Re: CMC+ or DK+

Postby Anteaters » Wed Feb 24, 2021 9:10 am

I'd go for DKM.

I love CMC, but the injury-plagued 2020 season worries me. I can't say he's not on a Mixon type see-saw career path, but I can't not say that either. I'd be more comfortable moving him if I could get FMV. No one can predict the future, but if CMC were to suffer another serious injury, his value would plummet. Also, the shelf life for WRs is much better than for RB.

You'll still have 3 quality RBs on your roster. As of today, I really like your WRs but see room for improvement. I'm not as hot for Higgins and Claypool as most - I think they showed well and have potential, but DKM is a proven WR1 fantasy asset and he's still young. After this deal, you'll have 3 young very good RBs, 2.5 fantasy WR1s, and the 1.03 and 1.04 pick in this year's draft to add one more top WR and RB assets.

Honestly, I'd do this deal every day and feel great about the 2021 season and beyond.
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Re: CMC+ or DK+

Postby Edgy68 » Wed Feb 24, 2021 11:01 am

McCaffrey and Metcalf are fairly close in value. That means you’re paying Davis and 2.10 to move from 1.08 to 1.03. Since I think CMC has a few left in him, I might lean that way if I was competing.

Metcalf is a plug and play each week like McCaffrey, and the 1.03 will get you another solid WR. Since it looks like losing CMC won’t devastate your RB room, it looks like a good way to get younger without losing a ton of production.
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Re: CMC+ or DK+

Postby heyfeefellskee » Wed Feb 24, 2021 11:10 am

Edgy68 wrote: Wed Feb 24, 2021 11:01 am McCaffrey and Metcalf are fairly close in value.
...are they, though?

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Re: CMC+ or DK+

Postby Edgy68 » Wed Feb 24, 2021 11:57 am

heyfeefellskee wrote: Wed Feb 24, 2021 11:10 am
Edgy68 wrote: Wed Feb 24, 2021 11:01 am McCaffrey and Metcalf are fairly close in value.
...are they, though?
I believe that is what I said, so the better question is why aren’t they? They’re both ranks in the top 10 right now, with the 24-yr old CMC a few spots ahead of Metcalf at 23. When healthy McCaffrey racks up ppg at a better rate than Metcalf. Due to career length CMC probably has a couple more years, while we assume DK can play well for at least 6.

To summarize, CMC is fantastic win-now piece but will drop off before Metcalf. DK puts up points already, just not at the same level as the RB. That makes them relatively even in value now, at the time of the trade.
Wasteland
12-team, PPR 25 roster 1QB, 2RB, 2WR, 1TE, 1(RB/WR/TE), 1 D/ST
QB J. Burrow, A. Richardson
RB J. Taylor, D. Henry, M. Sanders, B. Hall, T. Sermon, C. Patterson, P. Strong, K. Ingram, TDP, D. Achane, K. Miller, R. Johnson
WR AJ Brown, C. Ridley, J. Chase, C. Lamb, JSN, G. Pickens, K. Osborn, J. Meyers, A. Pierce, T. Scott
TE T. Kelce, D. Goedert, G. Dulcich, J. Woods
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Panthers
12-team SF, .5 PPR 35 roster: 1QB, 1SF, 2RB, 2WR, 1TE, 2FLEX, 2DB, 2LB, 2DL, 1FLEX
QB J. Burrow, A. Richardson, J. Winston, S. Howell
RB J. Mixon, E. Elliott, N. Chubb, J. Kelley, K. Harris, J. Ford
WR D. Hopkins, C. Godwin, T. Higgins, C. Ridley, J. Smith-Njigba, J. Mingo
TE T. Kelce, K. Pitts, Z. Ertz, D. Goedert, J. Ferguson
DB R. Grant, J. Simmons
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LB C. Mosley, A. Singleton, P. Queen, D. Deablo

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Re: CMC+ or DK+

Postby heyfeefellskee » Wed Feb 24, 2021 12:00 pm

Edgy68 wrote: Wed Feb 24, 2021 11:57 am
heyfeefellskee wrote: Wed Feb 24, 2021 11:10 am
Edgy68 wrote: Wed Feb 24, 2021 11:01 am McCaffrey and Metcalf are fairly close in value.
...are they, though?
I believe that is what I said, so the better question is why aren’t they? They’re both ranks in the top 10 right now, with the 24-yr old CMC a few spots ahead of Metcalf at 23. When healthy McCaffrey racks up ppg at a better rate than Metcalf. Due to career length CMC probably has a couple more years, while we assume DK can play well for at least 6.

To summarize, CMC is fantastic win-now piece but will drop off before Metcalf. DK puts up points already, just not at the same level as the RB. That makes them relatively even in value now, at the time of the trade.
Ranking != Value

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Re: CMC+ or DK+

Postby murphysxm » Wed Feb 24, 2021 12:05 pm

Edgy68 wrote: Wed Feb 24, 2021 11:57 am
heyfeefellskee wrote: Wed Feb 24, 2021 11:10 am
Edgy68 wrote: Wed Feb 24, 2021 11:01 am McCaffrey and Metcalf are fairly close in value.
...are they, though?
I believe that is what I said, so the better question is why aren’t they? They’re both ranks in the top 10 right now, with the 24-yr old CMC a few spots ahead of Metcalf at 23. When healthy McCaffrey racks up ppg at a better rate than Metcalf. Due to career length CMC probably has a couple more years, while we assume DK can play well for at least 6.

To summarize, CMC is fantastic win-now piece but will drop off before Metcalf. DK puts up points already, just not at the same level as the RB. That makes them relatively even in value now, at the time of the trade.
I am lower on CMC than I think everybody, and I don't see them close in value. It is far easier to replace WR stats than RB stats
I am just a guy sharing some thoughts

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Re: CMC+ or DK+

Postby krtbuckeye » Wed Feb 24, 2021 8:23 pm

Thank you all for the input. As much as I like the long term outlook on Metcalf, I think I’ve decided to hold off on the CMC-DK deal. Another owner offered 1.06 for 1.08/2.10 (I actually offered this to him last week and he declined but changed his mind) which really appealed to me in this class. Getting 2 of the top 6 guys without giving up or swapping any studs seemed a better way to go. Not to mention, the guy at 1.07 wants Pitts so bad and he’s going to be fuming with the assumption that Pitts is the main reason I jumped him. He’d be right, but we’ll see how it all falls.
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🥈 2018, 2019

10 Team SF, PPR, Roster: 33+2 IR+2 Taxi
Start: QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, TE, SF, FLX (RB/WR), K, 2 DL, LB, 2 DB, 2 IDP FLX

**IDP scoring is TKL heavy (1.0 solo and asst), no QBH or TFL.**

QB: Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts
RB: Jahmyr Gibbs, D’Andre Swift, Jerome Ford, Khalil Herbert, Jaleel McLaughlin, Ty Chandler, Michael Carter, Isaiah Spiller, Chase Brown, Evan Hull (IR), Sean Tucker
WR: Amon-Ra St. Brown, DeVonta Smith, Tee Higgins, Jordan Addison, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Josh Palmer, Demario Douglas, Alec Pierce, Michael Wilson, Jalin Hyatt, Kayshon Boutte (Taxi)
TE: Sam LaPorta, Trey McBride
K: Jake Elliott
DL: Danielle Hunter, Aiden Hutchinson, Jaelan Phillips (IR)
LB: Bobby Wagner, Jordyn Brooks, Logan Wilson, Ernest Jones
DB: Derwin James, Brian Branch

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Re: CMC+ or DK+

Postby zaner75 » Wed Feb 24, 2021 9:19 pm

Late to the party here but I agree with not trading CMC, even under the exercise of projecting this trade in 2022, assuming health.
As murphysxm said, WR production is easier to find. I see CMC as an elite difference maker at the more valuable position. in 2022, the gap probably narrows but I would still expect CMC to be an earlier startup pick.


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