Queen for Herbert?! - POLL

[TampaBay216]

Hey fellas.. I have a deal sitting in my inbox right now. My Patrick Queen for his Justin Herbert straight up. I currently own Brady and Burrow, 1QB league, 6 pts/TD. The top LB, White, averaged 17.2/game. Queen was at 11.5/game to give you a better idea of our scoring. 1.5/tackle, big play league.
I know I don’t necessarily need Herbert, but I’ve learned to take value when it’s presented. Thoughts?

Team 1 in SIG

Thanks in advance.

[Anteaters]

While it's nice to know how far behind the leader Queen is, I'd also like to know his grouping in your scoring system. For instance, was Queen the 3rd best LB or 12th? Was he in a pack of 6 who were packed tight in a 1.25 pts/gm range?

If he's the 3rd best and the next grouping is 2pts or more behind, that's something to think about.

On the other hand, I would have a very hard time not doing this trade. Herbert looks like a 10yr fantasy mainstay. Brady might have 1 more good year. Burrow looks good, but suffering a season-ending injury in his first year might make it make sense to get a long term alternative.

I'd make the trade and get Herbert.

[ThunderTung]

I really like Queen, but its dependent on your scoring. In my league, I would hold Queen. I think Herbert has a really bright future, but LB's are still more valuable than QB's in 1QB IMO

[Gator Sens]

With scoring, I would take Herbert despite it only being a 1 QB league. LBs are pretty hit or miss year to year at times. Burrow and Herbert eliminates any focus on needing a QB for years.

[TampaBay216]

While it's nice to know how far behind the leader Queen is, I'd also like to know his grouping in your scoring system. For instance, was Queen the 3rd best LB or 12th? Was he in a pack of 6 who were packed tight in a 1.25 pts/gm range?

If he's the 3rd best and the next grouping is 2pts or more behind, that's something to think about.

On the other hand, I would have a very hard time not doing this trade. Herbert looks like a 10yr fantasy mainstay. Brady might have 1 more good year. Burrow looks good, but suffering a season-ending injury in his first year might make it make sense to get a long term alternative.

I'd make the trade and get Herbert.

Good points fellas. Definitely makes me think twice. To answer your question, Queen was the 24th ranked LB on a per game basis.
White at #1 @17.2
Cunningham #5 14.6
Oluokun #10 13.3
Jack #15 13
Davis #20 11.9
Then Queen #24 @11.5/game

[krtbuckeye]

I think Queen has a lot of upside to unlock, but I’m taking Herbert here with the other LBs you have.

[meineymoe]

I am curious about which player was taken earlier in your rookie draft.
In my 12 team 1 qb draft, Queen went much earlier. He even went earlier in one of my 16 team 1 qb leagues. They both had stellar rookie seasons - Herbert's value probably shot up a bit more from where it had been.
What this comes down to is team need. With the focus on IDP in your league, Queen is a great asset. You are set at qb for the coming season and probably beyond - if I were to make this trade, I'd immediately be looking for the next deal.
In your scenario, I might sit and win my games with top defenders and the skill position guys you have.
-oo-

[TampaBay216]

I am curious about which player was taken earlier in your rookie draft.
In my 12 team 1 qb draft, Queen went much earlier. He even went earlier in one of my 16 team 1 qb leagues. They both had stellar rookie seasons - Herbert's value probably shot up a bit more from where it had been.
What this comes down to is team need. With the focus on IDP in your league, Queen is a great asset. You are set at qb for the coming season and probably beyond - if I were to make this trade, I'd immediately be looking for the next deal.
In your scenario, I might sit and win my games with top defenders and the skill position guys you have.
-oo-

Good points.
Queen drafted 1.11
Herbert drafted 9.05
We had a 10 round draft last year. Guy almost went undrafted.

[Perry_Grin13]

I really like Queen, but its dependent on your scoring. In my league, I would hold Queen. I think Herbert has a really bright future, but LB's are still more valuable than QB's in 1QB IMO

I think position scarcity and turnover rate is also worth looking at. There are ~ 96 Starting LB each week in the NFL. There are 32 starting QB. Interesting article "IDP in an Offensive world" at dynasty nerds found that of the top 30 LB only 13-14 repeated the following year. I'd say long term QBs have a higher chance of maintaining their value year over year.

Also if Burrow returns to pre injury form and Herbert maintains his trajectory you have 2 start worthy QBs for the next 10-15 years. That ability to not have to worry about 1 starting spot, at least for me, is extremely valuable.

[murphysxm]

Good points.
Queen drafted 1.11
Herbert drafted 9.05
We had a 10 round draft last year. Guy almost went undrafted.

This does not matter, who is better for your roster?

[meineymoe]

Good points.
Queen drafted 1.11
Herbert drafted 9.05
We had a 10 round draft last year. Guy almost went undrafted.

This does not matter, who is better for your roster?

Actually, it does matter. If someone offers me the player just taken at 9.05 for the player I just took at 1.11, they are going to have to sweeten the deal.

-oo-

[murphysxm]

Good points.
Queen drafted 1.11
Herbert drafted 9.05
We had a 10 round draft last year. Guy almost went undrafted.

This does not matter, who is better for your roster?

Actually, it does matter. If someone offers me the player just taken at 9.05 for the player I just took at 1.11, they are going to have to sweeten the deal.

-oo-

So if somebody offers you James Robinson for Keshawn Vaughn you want +? To me once the draft is over, all I care about is production

[krtbuckeye]

Good points.
Queen drafted 1.11
Herbert drafted 9.05
We had a 10 round draft last year. Guy almost went undrafted.

This does not matter, who is better for your roster?

Actually, it does matter. If someone offers me the player just taken at 9.05 for the player I just took at 1.11, they are going to have to sweeten the deal.

-oo-

If this were a startup draft done last week, I would agree. But an entire season after a rookie/FA draft that the draft positions apply to, this seems irrelevant. If the current values and team needs make it a good deal now, it's a good deal now. Otherwise, the owner of the more highly drafted player is just committing the sunk cost fallacy. I'm not saying Queen is a sunk cost, he's a stud, but just that the prior investment made shouldn't override current values.

[murphysxm]

If this were a startup draft done last week, I would agree. But an entire season after a rookie/FA draft that the draft positions apply to, this seems irrelevant. If the current values and team needs make it a good deal now, it's a good deal now. Otherwise, the owner of the more highly drafted player is just committing the sunk cost fallacy. I'm not saying Queen is a sunk cost, he's a stud, but just that the prior investment made shouldn't override current values.

you said this better than I, but 100% my point

[TampaBay216]

That makes a lot of sense. I pulled up the draft positions because someone had asked. I do agree, once we have a full season to value these guys, their original draft position doesn’t matter nearly as much of at all.