Am I overvaluing Higgins versus Godwin?

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Indy Blue
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Am I overvaluing Higgins versus Godwin?

Postby Indy Blue » Wed Jan 13, 2021 11:06 am

This is for Team 2, below. I've been trying to move CMC for awhile and have been trying to do a trade of CMC + WR2/3 for RB + WR1. So far haven't had much luck. I had sent this offer to a leaguemate:

I give: CMC, Tannehill, Corey Davis

I get: Gibson, AJ Brown, Cousins.

I thought it was fair, if maybe a slanted towards the Gibson/AJB side, but was hoping to get into trade talks (and maybe get Godwin instead of AJ Brown). It was rejected, but the guy came back with the following, after I mentioned I liked Godwin:

I give: Tannehill, Higgins, 2.05
I get: Cousins, Godwin, Rashaad Penny, Mark Ingram

Penny and Ingram to me are roster cloggers with no real value and while Tannehill is better than Cousins, they would both be backups to Watson in a 1 QB league, so when really looking at it, I felt the value lay on the Higgins + 2.05 over Godwin. I like Godwin, but he's two years older than Higgins, has a lot more competition for catches at Tampa Bay (where I'm assuming he'll be next year on the Franchise Tag), his future QB situation is unknown, and I worry his 2019 season was his ceiling, rather than a norm, given how much Jameis tossed it around that year. Higgins had a really good rookie year, is two years younger, and is tied to Burrow who looked good before his injury. Plus, this is a deep draft and I'm not really a contender yet, so I'm not crazy about trading draft picks (I'd prefer more draft equity).

I let the Godwin owner know as such and he came back with the following:

I give: Tannehill, Higgins, Jonnu Smith
I get: Cousins, Godwin, Ingram

I'm still leaning towards saying no, because I think Higgins and Godwin are close enough that I'd rather not give up a good backup QB and a good TE piece, but I wanted to check first. Am I overvaluing Higgins and undervaluing Godwin?
Team 1
10 Team, 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 Flex, 1 SF

QB: Mahomes, Cousins, Howell, Levis, Z. Wilson
RB: Taylor, Chubb, Walker, Achane, Kamara, A. Jones, Roschon Johnson, CEH, White, Ingram
WR: Lamb, Chase, AJ Brown, Evans, D. Johnson, Jeudy, Smith-Njigba, Hyatt, Scott
TE: Kittle, McBride, Schultz, Mayer, Ogletree, Mallory

Team 2
12 Team, 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 Flex

QB: Hurts, Watson, M. Jones
RB: McCaffrey, Taylor, Dobbins, Roschon Johnson
WR: Lamb, Godwin, Higgins, Palmer, Peoples-Jones, Campbell, Shenault, Tyler Scott
TE: Andrews, Engram, Gesicki, Woods, Granson, Mallory

Team 3
12 Team, 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 Superflex, 2 Flex

QB: Richardson, Tannehill, Mariota
RB: Sanders, White, Foreman, Scott, Brown, Kelley, Hill, Rodriguez
WR: Dotson, Johnson, Boyd, Slayton, Thorton, Downs, Duvernay, Patrick, Berrios, Austin, Gray, Williams, Scott
TE: Okonkwo, Smith, Musgrave, Washington, Bellinger, Granson, Ogletree, Mallory

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Re: Am I overvaluing Higgins versus Godwin?

Postby krtbuckeye » Wed Jan 13, 2021 11:27 am

With this being a 1 QB league, don't put a ton of stock into the Tannehill-Cousins swap, but edge to Tannehill. So this essentially comes down to whether you think the gap between Godwin and Higgins is greater than the value of Jonnu and a slight fade at backup QB, Ingram brings zero value here. I still have Godwin slightly over Higgins, but not by much and I think Higgins will continue to surge once Burrow is back.

This is a hold IMO.
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10 Team SF, PPR, Roster: 33+2 IR+2 Taxi
Start: QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, TE, SF, FLX (RB/WR), K, 2 DL, LB, 2 DB, 2 IDP FLX

**IDP scoring is TKL heavy (1.0 solo and asst), no QBH or TFL.**

QB: Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts
RB: Jahmyr Gibbs, D’Andre Swift, Jerome Ford, Khalil Herbert, Jaleel McLaughlin, Ty Chandler, Michael Carter, Isaiah Spiller, Chase Brown, Evan Hull (IR), Sean Tucker
WR: Amon-Ra St. Brown, DeVonta Smith, Tee Higgins, Jordan Addison, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Josh Palmer, Demario Douglas, Alec Pierce, Michael Wilson, Jalin Hyatt, Kayshon Boutte (Taxi)
TE: Sam LaPorta, Trey McBride
K: Jake Elliott
DL: Danielle Hunter, Aiden Hutchinson, Jaelan Phillips (IR)
LB: Bobby Wagner, Jordyn Brooks, Logan Wilson, Ernest Jones
DB: Derwin James, Brian Branch

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Re: Am I overvaluing Higgins versus Godwin?

Postby Gator Sens » Wed Jan 13, 2021 11:34 am

All things considered here,I would hold your side for any of the current offers.

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Re: Am I overvaluing Higgins versus Godwin?

Postby jwb32 » Wed Jan 13, 2021 11:41 am

I prefer Godwin to Higgins, but overall, this deal doesn’t do anything for me.
TEAM 1: 12 team league. 1.0 PPR WR/TE 0.5 PPR RB
Start 1QB, 2RBs, 3WRs, 2Flex, 1TE, 1DST
QBs- Lamar, Wentz
RBs- Javonte,Sanders, Michel,Howard,JJackson,JWilson
WRs- DJM,McLaurin,Higgins,DeVonta Smith,Jeudy, OBJ,Bateman,Treadwell,Crowder
TEs- Fant, Muth,Irv Smith
1.07,1.11,3.09

TEAM 2: 12 team league. 0.1 ppc 0.5 ppr. TE 1 ppr
Start 1QB, 2RBs, 3WRs, 2Flex, 1TE,
QBs-Watson, Davis, Huntley
RBs- Javonte,Akers, ETN,Gore,Dallas
WRs- McClaurin,DJM,Godwin,Diontae,MarquiseBr, Mooney,Van Jefferson,Collins,Atwell
TEs- Hock, Kmet,Trautman,AlbertO
1.04, 2.04, 4.04

TEAM 3: 12 team league. 0.5 ppr, 0.5/fd
Start 1QB, 2RBs, 2WRs, 2Flex, 1TE,
QBs- Lamar,Stafford
RBs- JT, Fournette, DHarris,Chuba,Collins,Gaskin,DHarris,Penny,Murray, Snell
WRs- Chase, DJM, Allen, Bateman, Julio, ElijahM, Mims, Crowder
TEs- Waller, Morneau,Njoku
2022 1st, 2nd (2), 3rd (2)

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Re: Am I overvaluing Higgins versus Godwin?

Postby Yarnith » Wed Jan 13, 2021 12:09 pm

I am with the consensus. Godwin is better than Higgins in my eyes but not enough to do this trade.
Cavaliers 12 team standard, 1QB, 1RB, 1WR, 2WR/TE, 1flex
QB: J. Allen, S. Howell, Z.Wilson
RB: A. Kamara, J. Taylor, CEH, K. Gainwell, P. Strong
WR: A.J. Brown, A. Cooper, J. Dotson, C. Ridley, E. Moore, W. Robinson, J. Meyers, T. Marshall,
TE: G. Kittle, J. Johnson, J. Woods, H. Henry
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Recent Championships '19,'21,'22

Fosters Home for Imaginary Friends- 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, 2Flex
QB: Mahomes, Purdy, Lance
RB: Pierce, Miller, K. Herbert, E. Hull
WR: Chase, Watson, Davis, JSN, Metchie, Pierce, V. Jefferson, Claypool, Thornton, Westbrook-Ikhine
TE: Pitts, Woods, Latu

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Re: Am I overvaluing Higgins versus Godwin?

Postby Oddball456 » Wed Jan 13, 2021 12:51 pm

I think 12 months from now Higgins will be valued much higher than Godwin so I would do the trade.

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Re: Am I overvaluing Higgins versus Godwin?

Postby Indy Blue » Wed Jan 13, 2021 12:57 pm

Oddball456 wrote: Wed Jan 13, 2021 12:51 pm I think 12 months from now Higgins will be valued much higher than Godwin so I would do the trade.
I'd be giving up Higgins for Godwin in this trade.
Team 1
10 Team, 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 Flex, 1 SF

QB: Mahomes, Cousins, Howell, Levis, Z. Wilson
RB: Taylor, Chubb, Walker, Achane, Kamara, A. Jones, Roschon Johnson, CEH, White, Ingram
WR: Lamb, Chase, AJ Brown, Evans, D. Johnson, Jeudy, Smith-Njigba, Hyatt, Scott
TE: Kittle, McBride, Schultz, Mayer, Ogletree, Mallory

Team 2
12 Team, 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 Flex

QB: Hurts, Watson, M. Jones
RB: McCaffrey, Taylor, Dobbins, Roschon Johnson
WR: Lamb, Godwin, Higgins, Palmer, Peoples-Jones, Campbell, Shenault, Tyler Scott
TE: Andrews, Engram, Gesicki, Woods, Granson, Mallory

Team 3
12 Team, 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 Superflex, 2 Flex

QB: Richardson, Tannehill, Mariota
RB: Sanders, White, Foreman, Scott, Brown, Kelley, Hill, Rodriguez
WR: Dotson, Johnson, Boyd, Slayton, Thorton, Downs, Duvernay, Patrick, Berrios, Austin, Gray, Williams, Scott
TE: Okonkwo, Smith, Musgrave, Washington, Bellinger, Granson, Ogletree, Mallory

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Re: Am I overvaluing Higgins versus Godwin?

Postby Gator Sens » Wed Jan 13, 2021 1:01 pm

Indy Blue wrote: Wed Jan 13, 2021 12:57 pm
Oddball456 wrote: Wed Jan 13, 2021 12:51 pm I think 12 months from now Higgins will be valued much higher than Godwin so I would do the trade.
I'd be giving up Higgins for Godwin in this trade.
Love them both depending on where Godwin lands, but currently I like who Higgins is tied to.

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Re: Am I overvaluing Higgins versus Godwin?

Postby CGW » Wed Jan 13, 2021 1:05 pm

I like Godwin a little bit above Higgins, but dont love vertical trades unless Godwin is just your guy.

Godwin is one of the better route runners in the league and probably some of the strongest hands too. He performs even in a situation with 2 other elite WRs. When healthy(he usually is) he is Elite. Who knows what his situation is going forward, but I think his talent will perform regardless.

The only advantage Higgins has is Burrow for his entire rookie contract. With Burrow, he looked like he could become what Godwin is. Because of that, age factors in.

Flip a coin for me. Go with your gut or you will regret it later.


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