Plan for the rookie draft with 1.01 and 1.03

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Crouchy
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Plan for the rookie draft with 1.01 and 1.03

Postby Crouchy » Wed Jan 13, 2021 8:30 am

I have first and third pick in the draft, team is in my signature. 1QB league. I'm am wondering what my plan should be? I was 3-10 last season but I had injuries and think I ran bad.

I have 4 top twenty running backs and Henry is aging and I wasn't able to trade him last season, so the clock is ticking. Plus maybe I can get one season out of Hill at QB. At TE I acquired Kittle last year so I am set. QB is kind of a mess and WR I am very weak with no top 20 players but a number of people who could have a really big year next season.

So I don't really need a running back now, especially in this weaker class. Or is this false thinking and I should always take my chance to draft a possible bellcow?

So my choice is draft BPA which would be Harris/Etienne and then likely Chase/Smith with 1.03.
Or I could draft my reciever first (Chase?) and then take whatever running back is left at 1.03
Or trade down from the 1.01 to 1.04 or 1.05 if I can.
Or trade my picks to acquire a couple of older top twenty receivers. A Michael Thomas or Allen Robinson type player. To really go for it this season.

What are your thoughts?

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Re: Plan for the rookie draft with 1.01 and 1.03

Postby Gator Sens » Wed Jan 13, 2021 8:36 am

Landing spots will help level all this out and BPA is the best way to go and to maximize all value. That being said, if landing spots are pretty equal in the end, I would be looking at Harris and Smith.

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krtbuckeye
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Re: Plan for the rookie draft with 1.01 and 1.03

Postby krtbuckeye » Wed Jan 13, 2021 9:10 am

I would wait until after the NFL draft to move either pick. Landing spots will ultimately determine how the top 3 will shake out. I don't mean to insinuate that all things ride on landing spots, as I do think it was a bit ridiculous how CEH jumped from being a late 1st prospect to the (fairly) consensus 1.01 last year. In my POV this was an overreaction to landing spot, not saying he's not good, but I think far fewer people would still pick him at 1.01 in hindsight.

To my main point though, the pre-fantasy draft values of between Etienne, Harris, Chase, and Smith (relative to each other and to known commodities that the picks could be traded for) won't be fully known until after the NFL draft. Once that has passed, you will be able to better evaluate what those picks can do for your team whether it be via drafting or trading/trading back. If drafting though, BPA is the way to go. All things considered equal, I would likely be eying Etienne and Chase with 1.01 and 1.03.
Last edited by krtbuckeye on Wed Jan 13, 2021 10:08 am, edited 1 time in total.
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10 Team SF, PPR, Roster: 33+2 IR+2 Taxi
Start: QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, TE, SF, FLX (RB/WR), K, 2 DL, LB, 2 DB, 2 IDP FLX

**IDP scoring is TKL heavy (1.0 solo and asst), no QBH or TFL.**

QB: Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts
RB: Jahmyr Gibbs, D’Andre Swift, Jerome Ford, Khalil Herbert, Jaleel McLaughlin, Ty Chandler, Michael Carter, Isaiah Spiller, Chase Brown, Evan Hull (IR), Sean Tucker
WR: Amon-Ra St. Brown, DeVonta Smith, Tee Higgins, Jordan Addison, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Josh Palmer, Demario Douglas, Alec Pierce, Michael Wilson, Jalin Hyatt, Kayshon Boutte (Taxi)
TE: Sam LaPorta, Trey McBride
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Re: Plan for the rookie draft with 1.01 and 1.03

Postby XclickX » Wed Jan 13, 2021 9:27 am

Agreed with the people above. Wait because the value of those picks only goes up between now and May. Also pick best player available. Oh and imo you do have a top 20 dynasty WR in Aiyuk, if the community isn’t valuing him rn as top 20 just wait until this time next year. He could be top 12.

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Re: Plan for the rookie draft with 1.01 and 1.03

Postby murphysxm » Wed Jan 13, 2021 10:34 am

There is a pretty clear drop off for me after 1.04. Having two picks in that tier on draft day either gets another owner overpaying in a trade to get their guy or you walk away with two studs. I will say your QB options in a 10 teamer don't excite me. If you can trade the 1.03 to move back, Lawerence should be a consideration.
I am just a guy sharing some thoughts

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Re: Plan for the rookie draft with 1.01 and 1.03

Postby kiszl » Wed Jan 13, 2021 11:09 am

Landing spots and combine will help determine the top 4 but ultimately I think that any 2 of top 4 will help you out a lot (Chase, Smith, Harris , and Etienne). BPA is always my approach.

If youre set on going rb and wr then I would do RB at this point in time.
10 team half ppr 1qb 2rb 2wr 1te 2 flex
Russel Wilson, Jameis Winston, Jimmy Garoppolo, Sam Darnold, Taysom Hill
Justin Jefferson, Brandon Aiyuk, Courtland Sutton, D.J Moore, Tyler Boyd, Terrace Marshall, TY Hilton, Allen Lazard, Mike Williams, Tim Patrick
Dalvin Cook, Ezekiel Elliott, Cam Akers, Najee Harris, Raheem Mostert, Philip Lindsay, AJ Dillon, Zack Moss
Noah Fant, Tim Tebow, O.J Howard
Taxi Squad: T Lance, D People-Jones, A Okwuegbunam, F Darby, J Jefferson, K Trask, R Stevenson, T Tremble
2022: 1, 2, 5, 6, 7
2023: 1, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 5, 6, 7
2024: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7

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Re: Plan for the rookie draft with 1.01 and 1.03

Postby smmcfarl » Wed Jan 13, 2021 12:23 pm

I would say Harris and then one of the WR depending on where they land in the draft.
12 team league - 1.0 PPR - 6pt TD's
Start 1Qb, 2Rb, 2Wr, 1Te, 2Flex, 1SF

Prescott, Brissett, Watson, Geno Smith, Corral
Mixon, Damien Harris, Carter, Jamaal Williams, Hines, Sermon, Ingram
Chase, Hill, DJ Moore, D. Smith, Marvin Jones, Shenault, R. Moore
Hockenson, Higbee, Smith, Otton

2023(1,1,1,1,1,3,4,4)
2024(1,2,3,4)

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Re: Plan for the rookie draft with 1.01 and 1.03

Postby MyTeam » Wed Jan 13, 2021 1:48 pm

Landing spots will be huge. Tough to tell without knowing.
Team 1: 12 team, PPR
1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, 1Flex

Mahomes, Lawrence
Najee, Swift, Javonte, Jamaal W, Murray
DK, DJM, Juju, Jameson, Gallup, Van
Pitts, Friermuth
1.01, 1.04, 1.11, 1.12, 3.10, 2 firsts next year

Team 2: 12 Team, SF TEP (1.5 PPR)
1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, 2Flex, 1 SF

Mahomes, Burrow, Cousins, Rudolph
CEH, Swift, Gibson, Jacobs, Mattison, Scott, McFarland
DK, AJB, Ridley, McLaurin, Kupp, Landry, Mims, Hamler, Miller, Johnson, Robinson
Andrews, H. Henry, Sternberger, Alie-Cox, Herndon

Same as Team 2
Watson, Burrow, Lance, Z. Wilson
Pollard, Mattison
Chase, D. Smith, Boyd, Hardman, E. Moore, Cephus, A. Rodgers, Harry, Boykin, A. Tate, Miller
Hockenson, Thomas, Albert O, Njoku
3 additional firsts

Same as Team 2
TLaw, Burrow, Watson, Darnold
CEH, Gus, Cohen
Juju, Chark, Shenault, Boyd, Landry, Renfrow, Robinson,
Engram, Kmet, Firkser, Schultz, Arnold, Herndon
5 additional firsts


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