Derrick Henry SF Value

[pmart33]

Just trying to get a sense of how folks are valuing Henry in terms of picks in a 12 team SF league.

[Gator Sens]

Early 1st+ even in SF with Lawrence on the clock.

[McCafsteez]

I would only give him up for the 1.01 if I was Qb needy. Otherwise it would take a haul

[Indyfan1985]

I may be in the minority but I'm not as high on Henry longterm. He has so many miles on the tires as of these past few years. This year alone he will have right about 375 carries or so.

Plus he doesn't get receptions and that's huge for me when evaluating dynasty RBs. I'd personally rather have Lawrence longterm over Henry in a SF league.

[tsarpepe]

Whatever you think of him long term, there's no denying that very few humans in history have put up this kind of numbers. That by itself is worth 1st++, even if he doesn't do much after 2021.

[punintended]

1.01 and another early first or equal value.

He’s got the contract, he owns the city and team dynamic is centered around him. No brainer and position scarcity at RB make him insanely valuable

[claypigeon49]

I just traded him in a 12-team SF PPR for Cooper and a 22 1st. I sent quite a few offers before taking that, and most replied with some variation of "not as high on him" or "maybe during the season."

[joeday]

Henry's perceived value by people who don't have him is very very low.

[pmart33]

Henry's perceived value by people who don't have him is very very low.

That’s what I’ve found as well.

[abloom]

1.01 +
Henry is probably somewhere in my 3-5 ranked RBs, I wouldn't draft Lawrence/Fields before him so I would need the 1.01 + to move Henry

[Edgy68]

I know we’re all speculating on career longevity, but isn’t it more likely a guy like Lawrence has 10+ years ahead of him compared to 2-3 for Henry? Lawrence hasn’t done a thing in the NFL, while we know what Henry is, but I think what QB brings in SF is still more valuable. That said, I’d need a significant piece on top of the 1.03 to trade him now, so 1.01 isn’t too much of an overpay.

[davidxhorn]

In a 10-team SF, I'm thinking of trading my Henry for1.03/1.05/Irv Smith. He is definitely the centerpiece to my team, and he is a hell of a lot of fun to watch and root for, but I mean... He has to slow down, right??

[joeday]

In a 10-team SF, I'm thinking of trading my Henry for1.03/1.05/Irv Smith. He is definitely the centerpiece to my team, and he is a hell of a lot of fun to watch and root for, but I mean... He has to slow down, right??

Keep in mind his wear and tear his first 3 seasons was extremely limited (to the point people were worried Dion Lewis was being signed to be the lead RB). Two out of three years at Alabama his touches were limited too. Also watching him play he doesn't seem to take a lot of massive hits. That said, this season (and post season) he will touch the ball around 425 times (and that's if they lose in the first round). I think if you plan on selling Henry it has to be now. If not, then you will most likely have to ride him into the sunset. With my main team where I think I could get another ship or two the next two seasons I will be holding him and just move on (getting no value) when the wheels fall off.

[davidxhorn]

In a 10-team SF, I'm thinking of trading my Henry for1.03/1.05/Irv Smith. He is definitely the centerpiece to my team, and he is a hell of a lot of fun to watch and root for, but I mean... He has to slow down, right??

Keep in mind his wear and tear his first 3 seasons was extremely limited (to the point people were worried Dion Lewis was being signed to be the lead RB). Two out of three years at Alabama his touches were limited too. Also watching him play he doesn't seem to take a lot of massive hits. That said, this season (and post season) he will touch the ball around 425 times (and that's if they lose in the first round). I think if you plan on selling Henry it has to be now. If not, then you will most likely have to ride him into the sunset. With my main team where I think I could get another ship or two the next two seasons I will be holding him and just move on (getting no value) when the wheels fall off.

Exactly, and in 2019 he also reached 400 touches inc. playoffs. It makes me nervous, but there is always the chance he is a physical outlier for that kind of work (remember in high school he had 1300+ carries, inc. 462 (!!!) in his senior season).

[Needalife]

It's a really tough question. Most of the teams picking at the top will not feel like they're one aging RB away from a championship so those picks will likely not be in play. Henry is a monster but the age and carries are up there. Trevor carries the unknown but if his play matches his hype (like Andrew Luck had) then he will be a longer-term and more valuable asset.

The more likely scenario is that you get some later rookie hits like Justin Jefferson (maybe with something) from a contender who picked in that 1.08-1.12 range and is RB-needy.

Purely in terms of picks, I'd sell for 1.01 and buy for 1.03.