Zeke - buy low or he is done?

[Vcize]

I see 2nds being offered for guys like Mike Davis, JD McKissic, Mattison, etc... Zeke basically had 5 randos playing OL and after Dak and Dalton got hurt he saw a few games with two guys at QB who I still believe are real NFL players lol

Perhaps 2nds are underrated then in most leagues. Think about who has been selected in the 2nd round in recent years. Thinking maybe a bad draft like 2019 (I think 2021 is better), we had AJ Brown available 2nd round. Kyler Murray was picked last in 1st round. Those guys have higher value than Zeke on the upside case. And that is in a bad draft. In a good draft like last year, there is Claypool, Shenault, Pittman, Aijuk, etc. You get the point. Zeke has insane mileage since 2016. How many rbs have produced at an elite level with that much volume?

Marshawn Lynch
Adrian Peterson
LeSean McCoy
Edgerrin James
Ladainian Tomlinson
Matt Forte
Frank Gore
Steven Jackson
Clinton Portis
Curtis Martin
Emmitt Smith

And probably quite a few more.

This idea that RBs are done in their mid 20's or with 1000-1500 career touches seems like recency bias to me, because most of the guys that are that just went through that age range came from the draft classes that represented worst dearth of NFL RB talent to come into the NFL in our lifetime. We went on a good stretch there where guys like Bishop Sankey were considered the best college football had to offer at the RB position and there simply weren't many Zeke/CMC/Barkley type prospects coming into the league. So if 1 or 2 flamed out all the sudden we can't come up with anyone that kept going, even though going back a few years we had a reasonably big supply of them.

[jman3134]

I would say Marshawn had been one of the most durable backs of the modern era. Even still, Zeke's workload for the first 5 years was heavier and he had more 300 carry years. Assuming Zeke is Marshawn level durable, he would have 3 good years left, which I think is a stretch. But, declining asset Marshawn in Oakland is still 1st round pick equivalent?

Maybe I just don't understand where these value systems derive from.

[Vcize]

I would say Marshawn had been one of the most durable backs of the modern era. Even still, Zeke's workload for the first 5 years was heavier and he had more 300 carry years. Assuming Zeke is Marshawn level durable, he would have 3 good years left, which I think is a stretch. But, declining asset Marshawn in Oakland is still 1st round pick equivalent?

Maybe I just don't understand where these value systems derive from.

Adrian Peterson had 1400 touches through his first 4 years and still had multiple top 3 RB seasons left and several other top 15 seasons beyond that.

Forte a little less at 1250 touches through 4 years but he was pretty much exactly half way through his RB1 career at that point.

Edge had almost 1700 touches by age 25, was still an uber stud at ages 26/27, and solid through age 29.

CMart 1300 touches through his first 4 years and age 25, another 400+ the next year, and he was just getting started. Was RB1 overall as late as age 31.

LT2 1600 touches through age 25. RB2 overall at age 26 and RB1 overall at age 27.

Marshall Faulk hit 1600 touches at age 25 and that was before his STL career even started. He was then pretty much the fantasy RB to own at age 26, 27, 28, then a low RB1 at age 29 and a high RB2 at 30.

Frank Gore hit 1500 touches at age 26 more than a decade ago.

[Mtt33]

If you aren’t willing to give a 1st then don’t waste your or the other owners time. Whether you truly think that’s a true assessment doesn’t matter, it’s simply not reflective of his value. No owner is selling for that, so move on to your next idea.

This was where my point started too, I’m low on zeke compared to market, my point has been and still is know the market, slight low balls are fair recommendations, offering a 2 for zeke is a terrible recommendation to anyone looking for advice. The better advice if that’s your valuation is ‘don’t buy zeke’.

[jman3134]

^ 100% agree with both your sentiments. I might feel it out first and ask what he's looking for in picks.

[jman3134]

I would say Marshawn had been one of the most durable backs of the modern era. Even still, Zeke's workload for the first 5 years was heavier and he had more 300 carry years. Assuming Zeke is Marshawn level durable, he would have 3 good years left, which I think is a stretch. But, declining asset Marshawn in Oakland is still 1st round pick equivalent?

Maybe I just don't understand where these value systems derive from.

Calling it now: Zeke is an afterthought in 2022. Planting that flag here today. He will have one more year of volume, splitting carries with Pollard, which will extend his career a bit, but production will be more like this year due to volume drop off imo.

Adrian Peterson had 1400 touches through his first 4 years and still had multiple top 3 RB seasons left and several other top 15 seasons beyond that.

Forte a little less at 1250 touches through 4 years but he was pretty much exactly half way through his RB1 career at that point.

Edge had almost 1700 touches by age 25, was still an uber stud at ages 26/27, and solid through age 29.

CMart 1300 touches through his first 4 years and age 25, another 400+ the next year, and he was just getting started. Was RB1 overall as late as age 31.

LT2 1600 touches through age 25. RB2 overall at age 26 and RB1 overall at age 27.

Marshall Faulk hit 1600 touches at age 25 and that was before his STL career even started. He was then pretty much the fantasy RB to own at age 26, 27, 28, then a low RB1 at age 29 and a high RB2 at 30.

Frank Gore hit 1500 touches at age 26 more than a decade ago.

So you are citing Frank Gore as a standard. That is like comparing guys today to one offs like KAJ in basketball or VC in today's game.

All the guys you are mentioning are HOF backs. Many from many moons ago. Yes it can happen. But, Zeke is being outplayed by his teammates in his year 25 season. He is hardly AP, or Marshall Faulk.

[FiremanEd]

JMan, you sound like one of those old car salesman type negotiators telling people how bad their asset is while trying to buy it. If you’re not into him then move on. Don’t go to such great lengths just to try to convince someone their assets value is worth far less than the market says he is. You’re far below market on him. It’s that simple. Move on to something more realistic.

To be clear, I’m not saying you’re wrong on about him, as he is undoubtedly on a downward value trajectory and his future production is unknown and at risk. However, his value simply isn’t there yet and an owner isn’t selling for a 2nd if nothing else than it being ‘Zeke’ and his long history of production. He had many variables working against him this year and a rebound is hardly out of the realm of possibilities. Soon to be 26 he is ‘getting old for a RB’ but not at the age of a mandatory value tank. Maybe next offseason.

He is definitely a buy low option. His value is definitely declining and at risk of accelerated decline due to both age and production risk. It just isn’t at the stage where offering a 2nd straight up is a realistic offer to engage an owner with and expect to close a deal. That valuation was more David Johnson last offseason, whom was both older and had both a more risky history of production and injury than Zeke.

[jman3134]

I just said as much dude. Again, having him as a keeper in redraft since 2016, I have no desire to convince you that your own poor evaluation is wrong. I moved on and hope you can too.

The title says it all: is he done? Someone who is done is not 1st round value so obviously I am lower. I'm over it.

[Tobin]

I am selling Zeke if I have him, BUT not just giving him away either....

[FiremanEd]

I just said as much dude. Again, having him as a keeper in redraft since 2016, I have no desire to convince you that your own poor evaluation is wrong. I moved on and hope you can too.

The title says it all: is he done? Someone who is done is not 1st round value so obviously I am lower. I'm over it.

Uh, it isn’t my valuation...it’s the industry as a whole’s valuation. Outside of someone trying to ‘buy low’ (ie. Buy below their market value) nobody is claiming he’s worth only a 2nd round pick. Don’t get upset that nobody will go for the idea.

I’m not sure what you mean by referencing your ownership since 2016. Were the prior two years RB5 finishes not good for you? He was a disappointment this year as RB11 (RB16 in PPG), but had various considerations that add in to cause that decline. His value has declined similarly. He will be 26, which is aging but not old. He will no doubt begin a downward trajectory of value, but easily can return 1st round (and more) returns.

Feel free to sell your Elliott share for a 2nd if you truly feel that’s his worth. You’d be clearly and knowingly selling below market and risking clear and obvious bounce back potential. I’m guessing you won’t though because it’s obvious it’s a silly concept to consider.

[Titans95]

Man it's so weird the different dynamic in leagues vs. message boards. People here are saying maybe late 1st or even a 2nd is all they would give. I think he's a great buy so I offered 1.07 for him and the guy told me not to send him offers anymore because I'm wasting his time.

As a Zeke owner, if I received an offer with 2 late firsts, I would easily decline. This board is actually kinda wild. If someone was able to buy Zeke for less than one first I would be extremely shocked.

I couldn't agree more, I was shocked to read all the comments. I'm sure there a lot of Zeke owner's ready to sell now just in case Zeke does really decline in 2021 but they are looking to sell with the expectation that Zeke is still valued a a top 5-6 RB that they can exchange for either an elite young WR or another up and coming RB. Why on earth would anyone trade a 25 year old RB with a huge salary (guaranteed workload) for a late 1st!? Any RB that is locked into 275 touches on a top 10 offense is worth an early/mid first alone. Zeke is worth a lot more than that.

[jman3134]

I just said as much dude. Again, having him as a keeper in redraft since 2016, I have no desire to convince you that your own poor evaluation is wrong. I moved on and hope you can too.

The title says it all: is he done? Someone who is done is not 1st round value so obviously I am lower. I'm over it.

Uh, it isn’t my valuation...it’s the industry as a whole’s valuation. Outside of someone trying to ‘buy low’ (ie. Buy below their market value) nobody is claiming he’s worth only a 2nd round pick. Don’t get upset that nobody will go for the idea.

I’m not sure what you mean by referencing your ownership since 2016. Were the prior two years RB5 finishes not good for you? He was a disappointment this year as RB11 (RB16 in PPG), but had various considerations that add in to cause that decline. His value has declined similarly. He will be 26, which is aging but not old. He will no doubt begin a downward trajectory of value, but easily can return 1st round (and more) returns.

Feel free to sell your Elliott share for a 2nd if you truly feel that’s his worth. You’d be clearly and knowingly selling below market and risking clear and obvious bounce back potential. I’m guessing you won’t though because it’s obvious it’s a silly concept to consider.

The situation is I have had him since 2016 in my redraft keeper league. I was inquiring on him from a dynasty perspective and for my separate dynasty league. I obviously think the wheels fell off so I will no longer by "keeping" him. I'd rather opt for Michael Thomas or George Kittle in round 1 and then Justin Jefferson in round 6.

Context is important. Dallas has also had the best o line in the league during the stretch where he finished high. The line will be a little better next year, but it isn't what it was. Couple that with the emergence of Pollard and Zeke's decline from high usage and I would recommend getting out now (because no one would ever buy at 2nd round value from what the consensus is here). Additionally, Dallas significantly bolstered their receiving core, so it looks like they will pass more as part of their attack. He is still a starting back, but I think his time as an elite fantasy producer is up.

So now this thread has become a recommendation: sell while you still can.

[jenkins.math]

Man it's so weird the different dynamic in leagues vs. message boards. People here are saying maybe late 1st or even a 2nd is all they would give. I think he's a great buy so I offered 1.07 for him and the guy told me not to send him offers anymore because I'm wasting his time.

As a Zeke owner, if I received an offer with 2 late firsts, I would easily decline. This board is actually kinda wild. If someone was able to buy Zeke for less than one first I would be extremely shocked.

I couldn't agree more, I was shocked to read all the comments. I'm sure there a lot of Zeke owner's ready to sell now just in case Zeke does really decline in 2021 but they are looking to sell with the expectation that Zeke is still valued a a top 5-6 RB that they can exchange for either an elite young WR or another up and coming RB. Why on earth would anyone trade a 25 year old RB with a huge salary (guaranteed workload) for a late 1st!? Any RB that is locked into 275 touches on a top 10 offense is worth an early/mid first alone. Zeke is worth a lot more than that.

Zeke was sold in one of my leagues for a late first right before the trade deadline this year so its happening.

This will sound like a hot take, but Zeke has been declining as a runner ever since his rookie year. Very similar to OBJ in terms of his best per game averages were almost all during his rookie year. I don't have any Zeke, but if I wasnt a legit contender I would be getting out for whatever decent value I could.

[killer_of_giants]

It isn't about age, it is about carry workload. Analysts have regularly brought up the fact that Henry splitting time with Demarco probably enabled him to sustain his current workload.

i remember some analysts saying the exact opposite

[Yarnith]

I traded Zeke and 2.12 for AJ Brown. I figure he has 2 years as a mid to high RB1 and 2 more as a lowRB1 high RB2. Leagues are all different but the responses to my trade were "Damn dude I woulda gave ya a 2nd and a WR if you wanted to just give him away!" and the like.