How bleak does my future look? (updated 3/22)

[fourdeans]

First off, brand new to the board. Thanks for having me. Been lurking for a couple of weeks and really enjoy everyone's insight. Here is my situation. Look forward to y'all's opinions. Thanks!

My league: www.DynastyOwner.com 12 teams. Starters - 1QB, 2RB, 2WR, 1TE, 1FLEX, 1K (same for bench less the FLEX, get 20% of their scoring)
Roster: 25 min, 30 max
Salary Cap: 70% of NFL cap each year, which projects to give me about $123M to spend for 2021
Draft capital: Knew my team wasn't championship worthy early on so acquired 4 additional 2021 picks. I have 1.2, 1.6, 2.15, 2.18, 2.20, 2.23, 3.27 (3 round rookie draft)

Current team heading into 2021:

QB (2):
Joe Burrow ($9M)
Sam Darnold ($7.5M)

RB (5):
Ronald Jones ($1.8M)
Myles Gaskin ($650K)
Philip Lindsay (FA, $2M est)
Boston Scott (FA, $1.5M est)
Travis Homer ($700k)

WR (10):
Kenny Golladay (FA, $19M est)
Will Fuller (FA, $17M est)
Robby Anderson ($10M)
Chase Claypool ($1.7M)
Jalen Reager ($3.4M)
Michael Gallup ($890K)
Devin Duvernay ($1.1M)
Collin Johnson ($900K)
John Hightower ($740K)
A. Gandy-Golden ($790K)

TE (3):
Dalton Schultz ($730K)
Mo Allie-Cox (FA, $1M est)
Anthony Firsker (FA, $1M est)

K (0):
Will have to pick up 2 random FA's, budgeting around $3M for those 2

Summary: That leaves me with 22 roster spots filled (including the 2 kickers). Will have an estimated $38.7M cap space to fill out the roster. Regarding the 7 draft picks, I am debating on just selecting 7 RB's depending on how they fall. They will be cheap and RB's are gold. Feel I can pick thru the undrafted free agents and pick up some value and probably have some money for a stop gap vet QB.

Thoughts? Sorry so long.

Thanks again!

[Gator Sens]

Welcome to the community! I don't think your future is too bleak. Jones II has proved to be a solid enough RB and hopefully you can RB help in the draft or via trade. I would not be opposed to moving Jones II for the right price either as I think you are a couple years out anyway. I would be looking to build around Burrow, Claypool, Reagor and hopefully one of Johnson, Hightower, Duvernay or Gandy-Golden hit. Again, I think you have a bit of a road ahead of you, but I would make all players available outside of the handful I named and look to stock pile picks and young assets. Golladay, Fuller and Anderson could all yield decent to solid returns in the offseason. Good luck!

[fourdeans]

Thanks! Appreciate it.

[dblj1199]

Welcome to the forum. I don't think that your roster is that far off. You have your qb of the future in Burrow, so your set there. WR core is solid, Golladay will return from injury and you have plenty of depth there. Your biggest weakness to me are your rb's and te's. RoJo has played decent at times, just not consistent. If he takes the next step in 2021 that will help. So your 1st's you need to hopefully add your rb1 / rb2 of the future. Depending on how your draft is going I may try and package your 1.6 along with a 2nd to move up, but that all depends on where you have rookies ranked along with team needs from those teams drafting before 1.6 pick. I really think you should be much better in 2021 and competing in 22'.

[abloom]

Welcome to the forum. I'll post a more in depth response later because I find the bench scoring some points an interesting caveat, but I had a few questions first if you could just clarify:

1) you say "same for bench less the flex", does that mean that of your 25-30 man roster you have 8 starters, 7 bench players, and 10-15 other players, where starters score 100% of their points, bench score 20%, and the other players score 0%?

2) what is your scoring system?

3) how are contracts done? Are they slotted according to draft picks, are they based on actual contracts, or do you bid on them?

4) how long can you keep a player on contract?

5) how much cap space do other teams have?


At first glance you have a lot of work to do, but I think that it should be possible to turn this team around.

Also slight note: your draft picks are listed as (round).(overall) I believe. Generally people organize it by (round).(#in round). So the 1st pick is the 1.01 and the 13th in a 12 team league is 2.01. no biggie but it's the format that tends to be used.

[fourdeans]

@dblj1199 - Thanks for replying. Very good thoughts. I have thought about trading up as well. Obviously, still very early in this process, but I think a combination of J. Williams, Gainwell or Hubbard (not a huge fan of his) will be there at 6. I'm going to take either Etienne or Harris at 2 and if either starts to slip to 4 or 5 I might try and move up for that.

@abloom - Thank you for your reply. Let me help clarify what I left unanswered.

1) Yes, we have 8 starters (100% of their scoring) and then 7 bench players, which you get 20% of their scoring. The other players on your roster go to the "Practice Squad" and don't receive any points.

2) Standard PPR scoring

3) Contracts are based on the player's actual NFL contract ($$$ and years). For example, I had Golladay this year at $800K, which would have been nice if he would have been playing, but next year that will change with his new contract which has been estimated to be around $19M per year. I have the right to keep him or drop him once the new deal is signed. Same with Fuller which I had at $2.5M, but that will likely be around $17M next year.

4) See above, you have them on their actual NFL contract. I have Matt Ryan this year, but makes no sense moving forward to have him with 3 years left at $30M per, so I am going to use an amnesty provision to drop him and create that cap relief.

5) Our cap this year was $112M, but starting next year it will go to 70% of the actual NFL cap which will be set in March. Early estimates that it will be around $176M, which will put our cap at $123M. About half our league used their entire cap and the other half had around $5-$10M in space throughout the year. Makes trading a bit difficult because you have to make the cap space work.

***Side note on contracts, we have "Dynasty Dollars" which is our spending money to bid on free agents. DD are also used when you drop a player. Dropping a player costs 25% of their remaining salary so for example Matt Ryan will have $90M left on his deal so the fee would be $22,500,000 but the amnesty is only $5M DD. There are various ways to add DD to your ledger. You start off with $10M DD. They can be traded, waged, bought or won. The winner of the league gets $100M DD.

Draft picks: 12 team league, but the winner of the loser's bracket gets a bonus pick at the end of the first round, #13. Here are my picks in the other format:

1.02
1.06
2.02 (like I said makes it #15, not #14)
2.05
2.07
2.10
3.02

Thanks again guys. I love be able to pick y'all's brains and hopefully it will help get this train turned around quickly.

[fourdeans]

Have a deal on the table.

Give: Myles Gaskin, picks 2.05 (#18) and 3.02 (#27)
Get: 1.05

[abloom]

Have a deal on the table.

Give: Myles Gaskin, picks 2.05 (#18) and 3.02 (#27)
Get: 1.05

I think I would easily take this deal. In a league setup like this draft picks are hugely valued (specifically higher ones) because you can get a cheap player for 4-5 years. If the fins invest in a rb this becomes the 2.05 and 3.02 for the 1.05. this is a snap accept to me.

I think you are in complete teardown and rebuild territory. And this league should almost be considerwd a SF league, though the second QBs aren't making huge points. Likewise it's also almost a 2 TE league, which pushes the value of tes amazingly high.

Of your team I would keep claypool and reagor, and your qbs and sell pretty much everyone else. Drafting I would prioritize qb and te and then wr and rb. Your goal should be to build a strong stable of good, cheap year 1-3 players and then supplement your roster with more expensive vets.

[fourdeans]

Just finalized a trade. Full on rebuild now. Saved a lot of cap room. Have to kill the draft.

Give:
Golladay (FA, est $19M)
Fuller (FA, est $17M)
Gaskin ($650k)
Burrow ($9M)

Get:
Chark ($1M)
Mims ($1M)
Pollard ($800k)
1.04
3.04

Now have these picks:
1.02
1.04
1.06
2.02 (15 overall)
2.05 (18 overall)
2.07 (20 overall)
2.10 (23 overall)
3.02 (27 overall)
3.04 (29 overall)

**Edit: And I did sign Stafford right before he was traded to LA, so I have Stafford and Darnold heading into the draft/season.

[BradysBunch]

Just finalized a trade. Full on rebuild now. Saved a lot of cap room. Have to kill the draft.

Give:
Golladay (FA, est $19M)
Fuller (FA, est $17M)
Gaskin ($650k)
Burrow ($9M)

Get:
Chark ($1M)
Mims ($1M)
Pollard ($800k)
1.04
3.04

Now have these picks:
1.02
1.04
1.06
2.02 (15 overall)
2.05 (18 overall)
2.07 (20 overall)
2.10 (23 overall)
3.02 (27 overall)
3.04 (29 overall)

Welcome! I don't know if I like this initially. I think you gave up too much. But I think Burrow was your guy to build around. I liked the first offer much better for you. But I don't do contracts and you did save a lot of money...so maybe it was ok.

[fourdeans]

Thanks for the reply BB. I was on the fence if I was going to be able to afford both Golladay and Fuller anyway and was probably going to have to let one walk. I have Stafford to replace Burrow while I figure out my future at QB. But I really just need to build up RB/WR/TE badly and cheaply.

[Anteaters]

Based on your league rules, I think it was a good risk trading $36M of WR for $2M that might just come close to matching their stats at a much lower price. Gaskin wasn't much of a loss, but I hate you lost Burrow. But having Stafford will probably make up for the loss of Burrow for the next couple of years anyway. And that 1.04 should be gold next to your other early picks.

Now the hard part is to hit on your first three picks, and half of your next 6.

[krtbuckeye]

Welcome!! I actually don’t think your team is too bad of shape. RB is the obvious weak spot but you have nice QB and WR groups to add to and around.

As far as Gaskin for 1.05, I would take that in a heartbeat.

[krtbuckeye]

Welcome!! I actually don’t think your team is too bad of shape. RB is the obvious weak spot but you have nice QB and WR groups to add to and around.

As far as Gaskin for 1.05, I would take that in a heartbeat.

Oh snap, that’s what I get for not reading all comments/updates. I really think I would have held off on that large deal, mainly due to Burrow and Golladay, and would have rather taken the value of Gaskin-1.05. But I get that the salary consideration makes it closer, just tough losing Burrow there.

[ravn88]

5) Our cap this year was $112M, but starting next year it will go to 70% of the actual NFL cap which will be set in March. Early estimates that it will be around $176M, which will put our cap at $123M. About half our league used their entire cap and the other half had around $5-$10M in space throughout the year. Makes trading a bit difficult because you have to make the cap space work.

***Side note on contracts, we have "Dynasty Dollars" which is our spending money to bid on free agents. DD are also used when you drop a player. Dropping a player costs 25% of their remaining salary so for example Matt Ryan will have $90M left on his deal so the fee would be $22,500,000 but the amnesty is only $5M DD. There are various ways to add DD to your ledger. You start off with $10M DD. They can be traded, waged, bought or won. The winner of the league gets $100M DD.


¹) What kind pf players to you expect to be FA ? Do you have a chance of getting big names (just like we see it in real life) because you have more money to spend as a rebuilding team.

²) Can you save / build up your Dynasty Dollars, or do they go back to the same each year ?

³) Ryan is still pretty good, isn't their a chance he has a trade market during the season (injureys and QBs being benched and so on) ?

³.⁰¹) if you are truley rebuilding can you go around the league and making Block Osweiler deals where you take big contract and a pick just to eat a contract ?