Trading away Aaron Jones as a contender?

[ChicagoFalcon]

12 TEAM PPR SF DYNASTY TE

Give: Aaron Jones
Get: James Robinson, Diontae Johnson (could add a 2nd I guess?)

Notable Players:
QBS: Tua, Russell, Minshew
RBS: Drake, Swift, Miles Sanders, Aaron Jones, Ekeler, Hines, Gallman, Wilkins
WRS: DJM, Godwin, Keenan Allen, Julio Jones, Slayton
TES: Kelce, Tonyan, Cook, Higbee

Good trade? Bad? Pointless? Thanks for your help!

[Gator Sens]

Wow, tough call but I would still gamble on Jones. I think Green Bay starts rolling him again.

[abloom]

Thats a nice offer. I think i'd take Robinson and Johnson. I think Robinson will put up the same numbers that Jones does this year, and getting Johnson seems like a good deal. Who knows where Jones is next year, but his situation may not be as good. WE know where J Rob and Diontae will be, and they seem to be in good situations.

[ColdZealDonkeyStrike]

It's pretty nice value for Jones, but I disagree with the above poster that Robinson will be as good this year. It's a clear drop off in ceiling to me, as Jones can win you your week when he operates as the #2 receiving option for GB.
If you're competing I'd be inclined to pass, especially if the team you are trading to is also competing (which I assume teams paying up for Jones are). Even if the drop-off from him to a guy like Swift is minimal in your lineup, Jones being in a strong opponent's lineup hurts your chances this year as well.

[abloom]

It's pretty nice value for Jones, but I disagree with the above poster that Robinson will be as good this year. It's a clear drop off in ceiling to me, as Jones can win you your week when he operates as the #2 receiving option for GB.
If you're competing I'd be inclined to pass, especially if the team you are trading to is also competing (which I assume teams paying up for Jones are). Even if the drop-off from him to a guy like Swift is minimal in your lineup, Jones being in a strong opponent's lineup hurts your chances this year as well.

decided to take a quick look at their seasons to date (PPR).

Jones
Games: 7
PPG: 20.3
Stdev: 11.6
Min: 12.9
Max: 45.6

Robinson
Games: 9
PPG: 18.3
Stdev: 8.0
Min: 10
Max: 31.7

So right now you are sacrificing 2 ppg to add diontae. Jones' games are being boosted by his 45.6 point game, robinson has 2 30 point games.

[ColdZealDonkeyStrike]

It's pretty nice value for Jones, but I disagree with the above poster that Robinson will be as good this year. It's a clear drop off in ceiling to me, as Jones can win you your week when he operates as the #2 receiving option for GB.
If you're competing I'd be inclined to pass, especially if the team you are trading to is also competing (which I assume teams paying up for Jones are). Even if the drop-off from him to a guy like Swift is minimal in your lineup, Jones being in a strong opponent's lineup hurts your chances this year as well.

decided to take a quick look at their seasons to date (PPR).

Jones
Games: 7
PPG: 20.3
Stdev: 11.6
Min: 12.9
Max: 45.6

Robinson
Games: 9
PPG: 18.3
Stdev: 8.0
Min: 10
Max: 31.7

So right now you are sacrificing 2 ppg to add diontae. Jones' games are being boosted by his 45.6 point game, robinson has 2 30 point games.

I don't think weekly average so far this year is a fair assessment of Jones weekly ceiling, and weekly ceilings matter a lot more in the playoffs than averages, IMO. Having the guy with the higher receiving workload and the goalline work on a better offense, and as a result the guy with the chance to go off for 40 points, is a pretty significant advantage to me.

[abloom]

It's pretty nice value for Jones, but I disagree with the above poster that Robinson will be as good this year. It's a clear drop off in ceiling to me, as Jones can win you your week when he operates as the #2 receiving option for GB.
If you're competing I'd be inclined to pass, especially if the team you are trading to is also competing (which I assume teams paying up for Jones are). Even if the drop-off from him to a guy like Swift is minimal in your lineup, Jones being in a strong opponent's lineup hurts your chances this year as well.

decided to take a quick look at their seasons to date (PPR).

Jones
Games: 7
PPG: 20.3
Stdev: 11.6
Min: 12.9
Max: 45.6

Robinson
Games: 9
PPG: 18.3
Stdev: 8.0
Min: 10
Max: 31.7

So right now you are sacrificing 2 ppg to add diontae. Jones' games are being boosted by his 45.6 point game, robinson has 2 30 point games.

I don't think weekly average so far this year is a fair assessment of Jones weekly ceiling, and weekly ceilings matter a lot more in the playoffs than averages, IMO. Having the guy with the higher receiving workload and the goalline work on a better offense, and as a result the guy with the chance to go off for 40 points, is a pretty significant advantage to me.

Robinson gets a good amount of receiving work. Infact both of them have similar receptions/targets per game. I think you may want to take a look at their stats side by side. They are far more similar than you think.

Jones has 2 games above 20 points, the 45.6 and a 22 point game. Robinson also has 3 games above 20 points: 21, 30, and 31.7.

[ColdZealDonkeyStrike]

I've seen the stats, I just think you are looking at this too simplistically. I feel a lot better starting Jones on a weekly basis than Robinson. He's a better weapon than Robinson in the receiving game, which makes it more likely he continues to get receiving work. Sustained receiving work and goalline work on a good offense is the reason he has 3 40+ point games in the last 13 months.
I'm not dissing Robinson, I have him in more leagues than I have Jones. I just value ceilings over floors and think Jones has a clearly higher ceiling, or at least a better chance to hit that ceiling. you may draw a different conclusion, but I think you are going to lead yourself astray more often when you only look at averages and raw numbers from a tiny sample size like 8 games.

[gpaok]

I dont think we would have this discussion 8 weeks ago, but funny how things change

Ok I think value wise the trade is fair and based on numbers they are very close in production. Assuming the name-bias is put aside which player are you more confident in?

If it was me I would look at Playoff schedule:

Jones - Seems like a good schedule
Week 13: Phi
Week 14: Det
Week 15: Car
Week 16: Ten
Week 17: Chi

Robinson - Seems like a mix of good and very bad games
Week 13: Min
Week 14: Ten
Week 15: Bal
Week 16: Chi
Week 17: Ind

As is the WR piece is nice for long term but I dont think you would start him in the playoffs.

[abloom]

I've seen the stats, I just think you are looking at this too simplistically. I feel a lot better starting Jones on a weekly basis than Robinson. He's a better weapon than Robinson in the receiving game, which makes it more likely he continues to get receiving work. Sustained receiving work and goalline work on a good offense is the reason he has 3 40+ point games in the last 13 months.
I'm not dissing Robinson, I have him in more leagues than I have Jones. I just value ceilings over floors and think Jones has a clearly higher ceiling, or at least a better chance to hit that ceiling. you may draw a different conclusion, but I think you are going to lead yourself astray more often when you only look at averages and raw numbers from a tiny sample size like 8 games.

Robinson had had 5 30+ point games in that time.

[Vcize]

It's pretty nice value for Jones, but I disagree with the above poster that Robinson will be as good this year. It's a clear drop off in ceiling to me, as Jones can win you your week when he operates as the #2 receiving option for GB.
If you're competing I'd be inclined to pass, especially if the team you are trading to is also competing (which I assume teams paying up for Jones are). Even if the drop-off from him to a guy like Swift is minimal in your lineup, Jones being in a strong opponent's lineup hurts your chances this year as well.

decided to take a quick look at their seasons to date (PPR).

Jones
Games: 7
PPG: 20.3
Stdev: 11.6
Min: 12.9
Max: 45.6

Robinson
Games: 9
PPG: 18.3
Stdev: 8.0
Min: 10
Max: 31.7

So right now you are sacrificing 2 ppg to add diontae. Jones' games are being boosted by his 45.6 point game, robinson has 2 30 point games.

It's a fair comparison, but I do think it's worth noting that one of those games (Jones' worst of the season) was one where he was injured and probably not ready to play, and would likely have sat out had the rest of the team's RB corps not come down with covid.

[Vcize]

I think it's also worth noting that Robinson has a pretty brutal playoff schedule with Baltimore and Chicago in weeks 15/16, while Jones has a pretty nice playoff schedule with matchups against the #25, #29, and #32 defenses against fantasy RB's in weeks 14-16.

That's really the only thing that's kept me from buying JRob EVERYWHERE, as I already own quite a few shares and feel generally that he's undervalued still.

[ChicagoFalcon]

Thank you everyone for y’all’s input!
This trade fell through but I did just get an offer for a 21 first, 22 first for Aaron Jones. I’m thinking about holding AJ despite being pretty stacked already.

[abloom]

Thank you everyone for y’all’s input!
This trade fell through but I did just get an offer for a 21 first, 22 first for Aaron Jones. I’m thinking about holding AJ despite being pretty stacked already.

Easy pass on that trade

[abloom]

It's pretty nice value for Jones, but I disagree with the above poster that Robinson will be as good this year. It's a clear drop off in ceiling to me, as Jones can win you your week when he operates as the #2 receiving option for GB.
If you're competing I'd be inclined to pass, especially if the team you are trading to is also competing (which I assume teams paying up for Jones are). Even if the drop-off from him to a guy like Swift is minimal in your lineup, Jones being in a strong opponent's lineup hurts your chances this year as well.

decided to take a quick look at their seasons to date (PPR).

Jones
Games: 7
PPG: 20.3
Stdev: 11.6
Min: 12.9
Max: 45.6

Robinson
Games: 9
PPG: 18.3
Stdev: 8.0
Min: 10
Max: 31.7

So right now you are sacrificing 2 ppg to add diontae. Jones' games are being boosted by his 45.6 point game, robinson has 2 30 point games.

It's a fair comparison, but I do think it's worth noting that one of those games (Jones' worst of the season) was one where he was injured and probably not ready to play, and would likely have sat out had the rest of the team's RB corps not come down with covid.

Fair enough, I think that game (last one) was roughly the average, so all it changes is the stdev. Though I'll point out that he did indeed start the game. Usually players that are emergency use only do not start, but point is well taken