Draft picks for JT

[eraldo_coil]

Panicking now is premature. He's still just a rookie that had no preseason to grow and in a situation that isn't exactly what we thought it was. It's not like any of these RBs this year have fit the billing, despite being hyped up so much. CEH has had glimpses, but isn't the Westbrook clone everyone was expecting right out of the gate. Gibson hardly catches any passes despite everyone expecting him to be a passing game extraordinaire. Dobbins and Swift have shown glimpses, but struggle to find any consistent volume. There's still a good chance these guys all need an off season of coaching at the NFL level before they develop and the coaching staff are confident putting them out there in certsin situations. All of them still have tremendous upside.

The offseason argument makes no sense to me in a year where we have 2 QBs putting up top 5 all-time rookie QB seasons and like 6 WRs putting up top 25 all-time WR seasons. And those are positions that are MORE dependent on an offseason.

Plus it's not like James Robinson hasn't looked great, and he had even less time with the team than JT did.

Swift and Dobbins we knew were unlikely to get major workloads in year one, so really it's just CEH/JT/Akers that haven't performed to expectations. That sounds like a pretty normal bust/underperformance rate for rookies to me. If anything the bust rate on rookies has been LOWER this year than in a typical year. I mean it's not like everyone drafted in the first 2 rounds of rookie drafts are going to hit. Half of them, at least, usually end up being busts. Someone has to be that half.

Good point. People seem to love the lack of off-season narrative to justify JT’s poor start to his career. The reality is that he has just simply looked bad in what was supposed to be one of the most lucrative situations for a rookie RB to land coming in. Not ready to throw around the bust label quite yet, but it is definitely worrisome.

[abloom]

Why are we assuming that the lack of an off season affects each player the same? The team situations are also very different. Give him time he'll be fine. If you don't want to wait for draft picks to mature then just sell them for vets every year.

[krtbuckeye]

Why are we assuming that the lack of an off season affects each player the same? The team situations are also very different. Give him time he'll be fine. If you don't want to wait for draft picks to mature then just sell them for vets every year.

This, right here!

[McCafsteez]

Why are we assuming that the lack of an off season affects each player the same? The team situations are also very different. Give him time he'll be fine. If you don't want to wait for draft picks to mature then just sell them for vets every year.

x2. I am baffled people are already throwing around the term "bust" with JT's name. The guy was a stud in college and looks like he will improve day in and day out. Maybe expectations of rookie RBs right of the gate are too high?

[abloom]

Why are we assuming that the lack of an off season affects each player the same? The team situations are also very different. Give him time he'll be fine. If you don't want to wait for draft picks to mature then just sell them for vets every year.

x2. I am baffled people are already throwing around the term "bust" with JT's name. The guy was a stud in college and looks like he will improve day in and day out. Maybe expectations of rookie RBs right of the gate are too high?

Can't wait to see what I can buy him for during rookie fever. I wouldn't be surprised if someone gets him for an early to mid 2nd

[Vcize]

Why are we assuming that the lack of an off season affects each player the same? The team situations are also very different. Give him time he'll be fine. If you don't want to wait for draft picks to mature then just sell them for vets every year.

x2. I am baffled people are already throwing around the term "bust" with JT's name. The guy was a stud in college and looks like he will improve day in and day out. Maybe expectations of rookie RBs right of the gate are too high?

Well it's kind of for good reason.

For every Derrick Henry where holding on through a couple of rocky seasons to start there are a half dozen guys like David Montgomery, Bishop Sankey, Montee Ball, Royce Freeman, etc. All of those guys were great sells half way through their rookie year when people were still making enough excuses for them to think they were buying low by paying a little below their original cost.

So if historically a RB that starts this poorly has a 1 in 6 chance of rebounding and actually becoming a good asset, how does that compare to the odds of what you can get for him in trade right now? You could pretty easily get a random 1st in most leagues for him right now, and historically random 1sts have about a 1 in 2 chance of hitting. So right off the bat you could improve your odds pretty substantially even with just a random 1st, and the reality is you can probably get even more than a random 1st right now.

To be fair to JT what he has going for him is that there are a lot of parallels to Derrick Henry. They're both big, fast, relatively straight line runners that were used to running through gaping holes behind a dominant O-line in college. So they never really had to learn to pick their way through the line in college. Maybe JT will eventually figure it out like Henry did, but Henry is really an outlier overall. Plus at least Henry was stuck behind a RB who was in the league MVP conversation the year prior. Not Jordan freaking Wilkins.

I certainly understand the sunk cost fallacy. Fortunately I was never high on JT for exactly these reasons and didn't draft him anywhere. But I did fall for the hype and pay a huge cost (Kyler for JT+) for him in one of my superflex dynasty leagues. And that hurts. And at that price the idea of accepting merely a 1st+ for him is daunting and I don't know if I can bring myself to take it. But I also have to consider how I'll feel in the very very real possibility where I pass on getting a 1st+ for Royce Freeman or Bishop Sankey and just end up doubling down on my misery because of emotion.

[abloom]

Why are we assuming that the lack of an off season affects each player the same? The team situations are also very different. Give him time he'll be fine. If you don't want to wait for draft picks to mature then just sell them for vets every year.

x2. I am baffled people are already throwing around the term "bust" with JT's name. The guy was a stud in college and looks like he will improve day in and day out. Maybe expectations of rookie RBs right of the gate are too high?

Well it's kind of for good reason.

For every Derrick Henry where holding on through a couple of rocky seasons to start there are a half dozen guys like David Montgomery, Bishop Sankey, Montee Ball, Royce Freeman, etc. All of those guys were great sells half way through their rookie year when people were still making enough excuses for them to think they were buying low by paying a little below their original cost.

So if historically a RB that starts this poorly has a 1 in 6 chance of rebounding and actually becoming a good asset, how does that compare to the odds of what you can get for him in trade right now? You could pretty easily get a random 1st in most leagues for him right now, and historically random 1sts have about a 1 in 2 chance of hitting. So right off the bat you could improve your odds pretty substantially even with just a random 1st, and the reality is you can probably get even more than a random 1st right now.

To be fair to JT what he has going for him is that there are a lot of parallels to Derrick Henry. They're both big, fast, relatively straight line runners that were used to running through gaping holes behind a dominant O-line in college. So they never really had to learn to pick their way through the line in college. Maybe JT will eventually figure it out like Henry did, but Henry is really an outlier overall. Plus at least Henry was stuck behind a RB who was in the league MVP conversation the year prior. Not Jordan freaking Wilkins.

I certainly understand the sunk cost fallacy. Fortunately I was never high on JT for exactly these reasons and didn't draft him anywhere. But I did fall for the hype and pay a huge cost (Kyler for JT+) for him in one of my superflex dynasty leagues. And that hurts. And at that price the idea of accepting merely a 1st+ for him is daunting and I don't know if I can bring myself to take it. But I also have to consider how I'll feel in the very very real possibility where I pass on getting a 1st+ for Royce Freeman or Bishop Sankey and just end up doubling down on my misery because of emotion.

rough points for rookie rbs, 1ppr

CEH: RB9, 127 points, 14.1 ppg (is on bye this week, all other rookie RBs have had byes already)
JT: RB17, 103 points this year, 12.9 ppg
Swift: RB19, 101 points, 12.71 ppg
Dobbins: RB40, 64 points, 8.05 ppg

If JT is on track to be a bust, I would make an argument that the rest are too.