James Robinson trade

[Prison_Mike]

Team 2 in sig - 12tm | PPR | 1QB

My friend who’s in a bit of a rebuild just sent me this:

I give: James Robinson + Anthony Miller
I get: Darren Waller + James White + 2021 3rd

I have a very competitive team and Engram has been leaving me a bit of a hole each week at TE

Waller could fill that void while Hock continues to develop.

Thoughts?

[Gator Sens]

I would hold. If Robinson continues, he is worth more here.

[Rustycage]

I'm holding too, I like Miller to much to just give him away.

[stigskol]

Hold for me as well.

[Prison_Mike]

I would hold. If Robinson continues, he is worth more here.

True.
I'm looking at this as more of a short-term play since Robinson's outlook is widely unknown.

Having a 'set it & forget it' TE is quite a luxury, even if it's just for this year

[Adam_172]

Hold hold hold

[dblj1199]

TE is a big hole for you, but I wouldn't move him and Miller for him. He's the #5 rb in my league right now and I'm assuming, like me you grabbed him off the waiver wire. So his value will only increase each week. He's only playing around 50% of the snaps with this production and I was impressed watching him on Thursday night. Hold tight on him for now.

[cvbuc]

The James Robinson fan club president here - been blasting his horn since the offseason.
So, yeah - hold

[Never Veto1]

Yeah I would hold. Over the next 3 weeks he plays the 31st, 32nd, and 30th ranked Run Defenses. They should all be decent weeks.

[zoster80]

His value is going to explode right now, he's going for more than a first in both my leagues right now. After these next few weeks, I can't imagine whats he's worth. I'd hold as well.

[murphysxm]

Yeah I would hold. Over the next 3 weeks he plays the 31st, 32nd, and 30th ranked Run Defenses. They should all be decent weeks.

This is spot on. Even if you don't believe in him long term (me included), his value should increase considerably in the next couple of weeks. Sell him after week 6 and get more

[Never Veto1]

Yeah I would hold. Over the next 3 weeks he plays the 31st, 32nd, and 30th ranked Run Defenses. They should all be decent weeks.

This is spot on. Even if you don't believe in him long term (me included), his value should increase considerably in the next couple of weeks. Sell him after week 6 and get more

I would also like to include, unless you have a stacked roster where you have no need to start him. I would make sure he is in your starting line up so the owners you are facing are seeing the points he is putting up against them. It will also build value.

[Trevormortis]

Piling on. I'd wait to sell and try and get more.

[cvbuc]

Remember, the main argument against JRob is draft capital - which he has none.

Here's where all the arguments of NFL drat capital are wrong currently and need to be updated for this specific player...
The stats everyone cites about the rarity of success for UDFA RBs apply to all UDFA once they are assigned to a team immediately after the NFL draft.
THAT's where all the stats begin that show how improbable it is for a UDFA to succeed.

Why? It's VERY hard for those guys to even make an NFL roster. That's where most of the UDFA falls off right away.
James Robinson has already achieved that.

It's extremely hard for those guys to get any reasonable volume or playing time. That's where the vast majority of the rest fall off.
James Robinson has already achieved and crossed that threshold.

Finally - it's extremely rare for these guys to ever achieve starting RB1 status on their teams, get a sizeable workload, and succeed right away. This is where we are getting into only maaaaaaybe 20 UDFA RBs in the last 2 decades (and much less that have ever accumulated the success Robsinson has thus far). These ARE the outliers.

James Robinson has already achieved that.
He already IS the outlier.

Now - he's only competing against those other 20 or so RBs who have ever reached this level of playing time and success.

So - when you see the stats that only 12 UDFA have had multiple top 24 seasons (over the past 15 or so seasons), etc., etc.. All 12 of those came from that 20 RB sample size.

Now, we're talking about 60% odds that Robinson has sustained success over multiple seasons based on how he's performed so far.
He is no longer competing against the other UDFA that never even sniffed what Robinson has had the opportunity to do.

The question shouldn't be whether or not he's going to succeed - that's false logic based on the wrong math. The question should be...

Are we looking at the next Arian Foster?

[colonnaj94]

Give me Robinson but try and sell him soon