Diggs Value Debate

[MyTeam]

Did Diggs value increase or decrease by going to the Bills and why? Current debate with another owner.

[Gator Sens]

He increased slightly for me, but I think he will still be wildly inconsistent.

[robinoso]

I think the same value to me. He can be electric and vacant. He reminds me of DJax with flashes and the up and down.

[CL3VELANDBR0WNS]

Decrease. I didn't want any part of him after leaving Minnesota. The targets were lowly but Kirk Cousins to Josh Allen is a significant downgrade. I'm expecting a similarly run heavy offense in Buffalo also. He has to play the Patriots 2x a year too.

[StripesOfKC]

I accidentally hit decrease but I think it increased with how much they spent on him forcing targets

[McCafsteez]

I think it increased. Josh Allen will only get better at passing. He is the Bill's franchise QB. They won't want him to run the ball as much as he is doing because he will for sure be injured. Plus, Moss could establish the run game meaning Allen won't have to run as much.

[The MAC Machine]

Look at how many Bills WRs have hit 1000 yards in the past 20 years - I think its 50% or less. Also think about why that is.....Buffalo in the late fall/early winter time is not a pass friendly place. Sorry no Wide Receiver will ever be better playing outside in Buffalo than inside in Minnesota. Especially if they rely on speed. Its just fact. His targets will go up, but because of where they are playing the accuracy will go way down....I’m telling you look at WRs over the last 20 years and how many targets they received vs how many receptions they hauled in. You’ll be shocked.

[The MAC Machine]

2004: Eric Moulds 88-1043-5
2005: Eric Moulds 81-816-4
2006: Lee Evans (on 138 targets) 82-1292-8
(Evans recorded 400 of his yards in 2 games in 2006. So these numbers were HIGHLY skewed)
2007: Lee Evans (on 114 targets) 55-849-5
2008: Lee Evans (on 101 targets) 63-1017-3
2009: Terrell Owens (on 109 targets) 55-829-5
2010: Stevie Johnson (on 143 targets) 82-1073-10
2011: Stevie Johnson (on 135 targets) 76-1004-7
2012: Stevie Johnson (on 148 targets) 79-1046-6
2013: Stevie Johnson (12 games, on 100 targets) 52-597-3
2014: Sammy Watkins (on 128 targets) 65-982-6
2015: Sammy Watkins (on 95 targets) 60-1047-9
2016: Robert Woods (13 games, on 74 targets) 51-613-1
2017: Deon Thompson (11 games, on 51 targets) 27-430-1
2018: Zay Jones (on 102 targets) 56-652-7
2019: John Brown (on 115 targets) 72-1060-6
2020: All of a sudden theres enough to go around for Diggs and John Brown? Sorry, this is a running team. And whoever emerges as the top WR here is historically limited anyways. Its just fact.

[BradysBunch]

If I had him, I would plan on selling within a month. Like said above, they are a run team. Come fantasy playoffs, in buffalo, they run the ball. I understand buffalo plays on the road too. I personally stay away from wr in buffalo.

[MyTeam]

I agree that Buffalo is a running team so is Minnesota

[Mtt33]

2004: Eric Moulds 88-1043-5
2005: Eric Moulds 81-816-4
2006: Lee Evans (on 138 targets) 82-1292-8
(Evans recorded 400 of his yards in 2 games in 2006. So these numbers were HIGHLY skewed)
2007: Lee Evans (on 114 targets) 55-849-5
2008: Lee Evans (on 101 targets) 63-1017-3
2009: Terrell Owens (on 109 targets) 55-829-5
2010: Stevie Johnson (on 143 targets) 82-1073-10
2011: Stevie Johnson (on 135 targets) 76-1004-7
2012: Stevie Johnson (on 148 targets) 79-1046-6
2013: Stevie Johnson (12 games, on 100 targets) 52-597-3
2014: Sammy Watkins (on 128 targets) 65-982-6
2015: Sammy Watkins (on 95 targets) 60-1047-9
2016: Robert Woods (13 games, on 74 targets) 51-613-1
2017: Deon Thompson (11 games, on 51 targets) 27-430-1
2018: Zay Jones (on 102 targets) 56-652-7
2019: John Brown (on 115 targets) 72-1060-6
2020: All of a sudden theres enough to go around for Diggs and John Brown? Sorry, this is a running team. And whoever emerges as the top WR here is historically limited anyways. Its just fact.

2004 team stats are a fantastic Source for 2020 projections.

[McCafsteez]

2004: Eric Moulds 88-1043-5
2005: Eric Moulds 81-816-4
2006: Lee Evans (on 138 targets) 82-1292-8
(Evans recorded 400 of his yards in 2 games in 2006. So these numbers were HIGHLY skewed)
2007: Lee Evans (on 114 targets) 55-849-5
2008: Lee Evans (on 101 targets) 63-1017-3
2009: Terrell Owens (on 109 targets) 55-829-5
2010: Stevie Johnson (on 143 targets) 82-1073-10
2011: Stevie Johnson (on 135 targets) 76-1004-7
2012: Stevie Johnson (on 148 targets) 79-1046-6
2013: Stevie Johnson (12 games, on 100 targets) 52-597-3
2014: Sammy Watkins (on 128 targets) 65-982-6
2015: Sammy Watkins (on 95 targets) 60-1047-9
2016: Robert Woods (13 games, on 74 targets) 51-613-1
2017: Deon Thompson (11 games, on 51 targets) 27-430-1
2018: Zay Jones (on 102 targets) 56-652-7
2019: John Brown (on 115 targets) 72-1060-6
2020: All of a sudden theres enough to go around for Diggs and John Brown? Sorry, this is a running team. And whoever emerges as the top WR here is historically limited anyways. Its just fact.

First off, you are bringing stats from almost two decades ago trying to make them relevant. Secondly, it doesn't matter if they only catch 50% of the pass attempts thrown their way. What matters is production. Sammy Watkins in 2014 still had a pretty good FF year even though he only caught 65/128 passes. Obviously the more catchable passes the better, but still...some of these guys rank well with the production they have. Also, it doesn't matter if Lee Evans recorded all those yards in a few games because he still racked up those points. I can't stand when people try to say his points were skewed because of a few games when at the end of the day, they still earned those points.

Also, the Bills have had a WR break 1,000 receiving yards every other year. That is still pretty impressive if you think about it...To put it into perspective, the list below shows how many receivers broke 1,000 receiving yards the past few years:

2016 - 23 WRs broke 1,000 receiving yards (71.8% of teams had a WR break 1,000 receiving yards)
2017 - 13 WRs broke 1,000 receiving yards (40.6% of teams had a WR broke 1,000 receiving yards)
2018 - 17 WRs broke 1,000 receiving yards (53.1% of teams had a WR broke 1,000 receiving yards)
2019 - 25 WRs broke 1,000 receiving yards (78.1% of teams had a WR broke 1,000 receiving yards)
The Bills are right around average (50%) in terms of producing a 1,000 yard WR every year in the NFL.
*I assumed each team only had one WR break 1,000 receiving yards and did not take into account if a team had two or more break that milestone, so actually the Bills have a better percentage assuming teams have had multiple WRs break 1,000 yards in the same year.

Since 2004, there has only been six times a Vikings WR has broke 1,000 yards. They have a worse percentage of WRs breaking 1,000 yards receiving than the Bills do...

My point is, your tone makes it seem like Buffalo has zero chance of WR production when historically, they have a WR every other year produce pretty good FF numbers (break 1,000 receiving yards) Now, take into account an overall increase in total yards as we progress each year due offenses passing more and we see a great opportunity for Diggs and Brown to succeed. Plus, the Bills won't want to risk an injury to Josh Allen (who they believe is their franchise QB). This would lead me to believe they want to see him pass the ball more to preserve his body and run game.

[The MAC Machine]

First off, you are bringing stats from almost two decades ago trying to make them relevant.

I literally gave you 16 seasons of data up leading up to the current moment to establish a trend to support the fact that the Bills are and have historically been a running team. (The Vikings have also historically been a running team).

But let me give you some more irrelevant data since you seem to really enjoy it.....

The Bills Ranking In Pass Attempts since 2004. The Bolded Years are the years the Bills actually had a 1000 yard receiver
2004: 27th
2005: 26th
2006: 31st
2007: 30th
2008: 24th
2009: 31st
2010: 19th
2011: 10th
2012: 23rd
2013: 24th
2014: 13th
2015: 31st
2016: 32nd
2017: 31st
2018: 28th
2019: 24th - John Brown
2020: ?????

The question is whether or not Diggs’ value has increased...it has not. He has gone from being the guy in an OK situation in Minnesota, to being the number 2 in an OK situation in Buffalo.

My point is, your tone makes it seem like Buffalo has zero chance of WR production when historically, they have a WR every other year produce pretty good FF numbers

Oh, really? My tone said that when my words said this?

Look at how many Bills WRs have hit 1000 yards in the past 20 years - I think its 50% or less.

Look, believe what you WANT to believe. But my point is...not only is there a 50/50 chance that there will NOT be a 1000 receiver in Buffalo, but additionally there is a chance that EVEN IF THERE IS a 1000 yard receiver - that it won’t be Diggs. It would likely be John Brown, the guy who produced 1000 yards last year. So for Diggs value to INCREASE he would have to somehow transcend his average production of 73-920-6 in 14 games alongside another WR on a historically average passing team. In order to do so a few things need to happen.

1) he has to stay healthy
2) He would have to get as many targets or more than John Brown (115+ and where are those targets going to come from? )
3) Buffalo would have to throw more, and probably be top 10 in passing attempts (didn’t they just draft a RB? )
4) The Bills would then have to do something rare......potentially have 2 - 1000 yard WRs.

Sorry, that’s just not a smart bet. You can close your eyes and bet blindly all you want. Numerically its just not in his favor without John Brown there, but especially with John Brown there. And even if by a long shot he does exceed past production....it won’t be by much at all. There’s no information that anyone has that points to an increase in value or production besides the hope and belief that the Bills are going to magically allow a sudden be a top passing team. Since when?

[Alex116]

So, just curious, do you have Diggs behind Brown as the WR1? Just curious.

[Alex116]

So, just curious, do you have Diggs behind Brown as the WR1? Seriously, just curious.