McLaurin or 2021 Picks?

[StripesOfKC]

I've definitely been going back on forth on this one. If I traded McLaurin for picks, the worst case scenario here would be a late 1st and late 2nd.

Here are my current top-10 2021 rookie superflex rankings:

1. Trevor Lawrence
2. Travis Etienne
3. Justin Fields
4. J'marr Chase
5. Chuba Hubbard
6. Trey Lance
7. Najee Harris
8. Rondale Moore
9. Jaylen Waddle
10.Rashod Bateman

Getting one of Moore, Waddle, Bateman doesn't seem so bad as a worst case scenario, although I do understand there's a bust risk with all WR prospects. If that 1st ends up as a mid-pick then I'm looking at a nice RB prospects or Lance/Chase. My team needs are RB and QB, so anything other than a late round pick would likely help me fill those holes.

Now if you also consider that in TE premium there are 3 very nice prospects in 2021, here are the leftovers for the 2nd round:

Kyle Pitts
Amon-Ra St. Brown
Max Borghi
Brevin Jordan
Pat Freiermuth
DeVonta Smith
Journey Brown
Tylan Wallace
Seth Williams
Jamie Newman
Tamorrion Terry
Zamir White
Keontay Ingram
Kylin Hill
Kenneth Gainwell

At the end of the day, a 2021 1st+2nd, even without a college season, seems like reasonably good value for Terry. I'm very high on Terry, but unless he absolutely balls out in 2020 as a top-10 WR, then by the time the 2021 rookie draft rolls around I think those picks could easily be seen as more valuable.

I'm still waffling on this one.

In SF it's closer but of your top 10 I pretty much hate all the RBs except Etienne who I merely dislike

The WRs, QBs and TEs are the prize--not sure one of them is worth Terry though

[esloan35]

If you had a Mid 1st and a mid 2nd and someone told you that would turn into a productive rookie WR who is the top option on his team you’d be happy with that. keep Terry over the unknown

What if I told you that if you had a mid 1st and a mid 2nd that you could turn it into a 25 year old WR who had a solid rookie year, but he plays with the Redskins and is almost certainly going to have added competition as soon as possible. Oh, and the 2020 season is an unknown, so he may be 26 when you get to use him. But he had one solid season to date.

Are you going to risk a high 2021 1st (and more)? How about a mid-1st in a highly touted WR class (and more), while losing 3+years of age?

Anyone saying McLaurin and not asking where the pick is estimating is downright foolish. Add in uncertainty of 2020 and how 2021 picks are to be projected by a league, and it’s even more risky. Late picks, I can get on board. Mid-picks, it is risky IMO. High picks, forget about it.

The original post stated that the picks were likely mid round. Would it be preferable if Terry were 23 like most 2nd year players? Yes, obviously it would. But are people really worried about age for a WR before they turn 28 or 29? I know I’m not. I’m also failing to see how Terry walking into all the targets he can handle is a bad thing, considering he plays for a team that will be in negative game scripts more of than not this year.

I agree with you. Calling people foolish is reckless and rude. Those picks could easily be Corey Davis or Josh Dotson, and then you would regret losing on a guy like McLaurin in his prime, and only 26 with some great seasons ahead. Stick with the poll to guide the decision making on this one (3 to 1 for McLaurin).

[iherscovitch]

Those picks could easily be Corey Davis or Josh Dotson, and then you would regret losing on a guy like McLaurin in his prime, and only 26 with some great seasons ahead. Stick with the poll to guide the decision making on this one (3 to 1 for McLaurin).

This is a valid argument, sometimes it's easy to fall prey to the "age trap" and always want to get younger - 26 certainly isn't old for a WR.

[M-Dub]

I’m just not buying the argument that 2021 picks are going to lose value if there’s no 2020 college football season. Any perceived loss of value due to not having any 2020 stats/film to analyze should be more than offset by the fact that all of the prospects should ostensibly be healthy for the combine and have one less year of wear and tear on their bodies. The overwhelming majority of these kids already have 2-3 seasons of college football on their resumes for scouts to study. It’s not like they’re complete unknowns. As long as they stay in good shape, missing the 2020 season could actually wind up being a net positive.

As far as the trade goes, I think the value is on the picks side, unless they wind up being late. I like McLaurin just fine, but you have a pretty deep WR corps, so I don’t see him being the one missing piece that keeps you from winning a title or something, if there’s even a 2020 NFL season at all. The picks are more versatile assets with more universal appeal. If you’re trying to use Terry to upgrade at QB or RB, you’re limited to teams that have a need at WR. In contrast, the picks don’t already have a position assigned to them, so you should theoretically be able to use them as a trade piece with ANY team. They also don’t take up a roster spot, so you’re not only gaining the two picks, but also whichever FA you like most on your waiver wire.

[esloan35]

I’m just not buying the argument that 2021 picks are going to lose value if there’s no 2020 college football season. Any perceived loss of value due to not having any 2020 stats/film to analyze should be more than offset by the fact that all of the prospects should ostensibly be healthy for the combine and have one less year of wear and tear on their bodies. The overwhelming majority of these kids already have 2-3 seasons of college football on their resumes for scouts to study. It’s not like they’re complete unknowns. As long as they stay in good shape, missing the 2020 season could actually wind up being a net positive.

As far as the trade goes, I think the value is on the picks side, unless they wind up being late. I like McLaurin just fine, but you have a pretty deep WR corps, so I don’t see him being the one missing piece that keeps you from winning a title or something, if there’s even a 2020 NFL season at all. The picks are more versatile assets with more universal appeal. If you’re trying to use Terry to upgrade at QB or RB, you’re limited to teams that have a need at WR. In contrast, the picks don’t already have a position assigned to them, so you should theoretically be able to use them as a trade piece with ANY team. They also don’t take up a roster spot, so you’re not only gaining the two picks, but also whichever FA you like most on your waiver wire.

I agree the 2021 picks hold value and there is enough tape for many of these players to get a solid draft for the top prospects. The only factor I would argue that we know McLaurin can play on an NFL field and the age argument is weak in regards to him imo. There is still a chance you strike out on a big name that flops like Treadwell, Doctson, and Davis. If the pick is top 5, with the 2nd add it makes sense for some. This pick has been mentioned as mid at best, so many would rather have McLaurin it appears. Why chase for something you already have is the question?

[FiremanEd]

The OP said estimated mid-picks (Yes, I missed that piece in a previous comment about ‘foolish to not ask where’. Guilty.), which in a 10 team league is probably 1.04-1.07. The OP also said that he has WR and TE, but could use QB and RB. Odds are, what we know is the 2021 class, is that some decent prospects will be there (Lawrence, Fields, Lance, Hubbard, Ettienne), but even if he doesn’t get them, then he can have a quality WR prospect, or use the pick to trade for a QB/RB. Draft picks generally have more trade flexibility than a particular player may, across the entire league. A player like McLaurin may not have the same trade value to some owners, especially if he’s going on 26 with one season to his name. Whether we agree or not, some won’t give the same value assessment, but a draft pick may given it could be multiple players/positions.

The 2nd in a 10 team league, mid-pick, also has quality outlook to help add depth (any position).

It isn’t necessarily putting down McLaurin’s outlook, but rather protecting value and adding flexibility, all while hedging on the 2020 season. If there was a 2020 season assured, I agree he’d have a good chance to increase value given what his target share should be.

Specific to player risk on the selection, that exists, but so does value insulation and the chance to hit on the pick. Davis retained value for years. Draft pedigree and age insulation will give grace period to get out. Ultimately though he wants a non-WR though too.

Acknowledge the masses prefer McLaurin for the picks straight up. I see the rationale, but think it ignores some risks (I.e. if the pick is high instead, if there is no 2020 season, etc.). It isn’t just about Terry’s age, but that definitely is a variable too in some instances.

Is anyone taking the McLaurin/Fuller vs Reagor/mid1st/mid2nd though? Even if you prefer McLaurin to Reagor, it doesn’t cover the excess of the 1st/2nd over Fuller does it?

[iherscovitch]

The OP said estimated mid-picks (Yes, I missed that piece in a previous comment about ‘foolish to not ask where’. Guilty.), which in a 10 team league is probably 1.04-1.07. The OP also said that he has WR and TE, but could use QB and RB. Odds are, what we know is the 2021 class, is that some decent prospects will be there (Lawrence, Fields, Lance, Hubbard, Ettienne), but even if he doesn’t get them, then he can have a quality WR prospect, or use the pick to trade for a QB/RB. Draft picks generally have more trade flexibility than a particular player may, across the entire league. A player like McLaurin may not have the same trade value to some owners, especially if he’s going on 26 with one season to his name. Whether we agree or not, some won’t give the same value assessment, but a draft pick may given it could be multiple players/positions.

The 2nd in a 10 team league, mid-pick, also has quality outlook to help add depth (any position).

It isn’t necessarily putting down McLaurin’s outlook, but rather protecting value and adding flexibility, all while hedging on the 2020 season. If there was a 2020 season assured, I agree he’d have a good chance to increase value given what his target share should be.

Specific to player risk on the selection, that exists, but so does value insulation and the chance to hit on the pick. Davis retained value for years. Draft pedigree and age insulation will give grace period to get out. Ultimately though he wants a non-WR though too.

Acknowledge the masses prefer McLaurin for the picks straight up. I see the rationale, but think it ignores some risks (I.e. if the pick is high instead, if there is no 2020 season, etc.). It isn’t just about Terry’s age, but that definitely is a variable too in some instances.

Is anyone taking the McLaurin/Fuller vs Reagor/mid1st/mid2nd though? Even if you prefer McLaurin to Reagor, it doesn’t cover the excess of the 1st/2nd over Fuller does it?

I tend to agree with this logic. This is all about perceived value and the ability to balance my roster in order to compete in 2021. I know I'll need another solid RB and QB to consider myself a contender, and I also know WR will be the most easily replaced/traded for position.

Let's run through a few scenarios:

1) The 2020 season happens, Terry's value goes up and he's seen as a top 12-15 dynasty WR heading into 2021.
2) The 2020 season happens, Terry doesn't skyrocket as expected, and he's seen as a top 20-25 dynasty WR heading into 2021.
3) The 2020 season is canceled/cut short, Terry's value stagnates and he's seen as a top 20-25 dynasty WR heading into 2021.

Can I trade Terry for a starting QB in scenario 1? Maybe. I'd need to find a WR-needy team with an excess of QBs. Scenario 2 and 3? forget about it.

Now imagine if I had the picks instead and I'm on the clock during the 2021 rookie draft. Could I trade 1.04-1.07 for a QB? Much more likely given that lots of teams will covet the draft pick due to its positional flexibility (I just traded the 1.05 this year for Baker Mayfield). I could also flip that pick for a WR (the 2020 1.08 was just flipped for Diggs+Dede Westbrook).

Even in scenario 1, the total perceived value of the 2021 picks would equal or exceed Terry. A 26 year old top 10-15 WR has a DLF trade value of ~350-450. During rookie draft season, the 1.05 alone is worth ~450. A worst case late 1st+2nd would have total value of ~350. Late 1st round WRs in next year's draft will slot in immediately as top-25 dynasty WRs (just look at where Jeudy, Lamb, Reagor sit in DLF's rankings). This would be literally the worst case scenario where the pick ends up 1.08-1.10.

This all comes down to probabilities for me. I believe that the only chance for value loss is in scenario 1 where Terry keeps ascending in 2020 and I end up with a late 2021 1st+2nd.

All other scenarios result in equal or greater value in the 2021 picks no matter where they land, while also affording me better trading flexibility.

[iherscovitch]

New offer has been negotiated:

Give: Terry

Get: 2021 1st + 2nd + Preston Williams

[Mtt33]

I’m just not buying the argument that 2021 picks are going to lose value if there’s no 2020 college football season. Any perceived loss of value due to not having any 2020 stats/film to analyze should be more than offset by the fact that all of the prospects should ostensibly be healthy for the combine and have one less year of wear and tear on their bodies. The overwhelming majority of these kids already have 2-3 seasons of college football on their resumes for scouts to study. It’s not like they’re complete unknowns. As long as they stay in good shape, missing the 2020 season could actually wind up being a net positive.

As far as the trade goes, I think the value is on the picks side, unless they wind up being late. I like McLaurin just fine, but you have a pretty deep WR corps, so I don’t see him being the one missing piece that keeps you from winning a title or something, if there’s even a 2020 NFL season at all. The picks are more versatile assets with more universal appeal. If you’re trying to use Terry to upgrade at QB or RB, you’re limited to teams that have a need at WR. In contrast, the picks don’t already have a position assigned to them, so you should theoretically be able to use them as a trade piece with ANY team. They also don’t take up a roster spot, so you’re not only gaining the two picks, but also whichever FA you like most on your waiver wire.

Respectfully very much disagree. Go back at any season and look at the devy ranks or the draft projections and look at how much everything changes with another year of tape. You think burrow would’ve rocketed up the charts based on his combine? I do not.

It’s possible that perceived value of picks won’t plummet And you’ll still be able to trade them at the same rates but I’m worried it will personally.

[FantasyFoosball]

New offer has been negotiated:

Give: Terry

Get: 2021 1st + 2nd + Preston Williams

I'm not high on Williams, he doesn't move the needle much for me here. I'd still hold McLaurin.

[HughHoney]

This picks deal is fair and I’d lean towards the picks. Adding Reagor and Fuller to the deal this is easily picks+Reagor.

[repkllrs]

Oh man. Now 24year old wrs are old. Lol. McLaurin successful in every season he has played in the nfl vs future picks that have very little chance of being so prolific during rookie season. Why can’t I find these trade partners in my leagues.

[Yarnith]

New offer has been negotiated:

Give: Terry

Get: 2021 1st + 2nd + Preston Williams

I honestly dont understand the Wlliams hate people show. Williams was on pace to have the same kind of year McLaurin had before his injury. Mclaurin has questions Williams has questions. McLaurin has an entirely new staff and system to prove himself to and show he wasn't a 1 year fluke. Williams gets another year in the same system with the staff that went and got him as an undrafted and put him on the field week 1. He promptly led the Dolphins in receiving until he got hurt. His ropes longer and they want him in the system they got him for.

Mash accept that is a great deal.

[AresGodOWar3]

I would want a 1.05 - 1.06 for Terry , So him over the random 2021 1st and 2nd

[esloan35]

Oh man. Now 24year old wrs are old. Lol. McLaurin successful in every season he has played in the nfl vs future picks that have very little chance of being so prolific during rookie season. Why can’t I find these trade partners in my leagues.

Agreed, chasing what you already have.