Adams or 4 later 2021 1sts

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Johnny Canuck
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Adams or 4 later 2021 1sts

Postby Johnny Canuck » Fri Jun 26, 2020 10:47 am

I've already declined this offer, and don't think I'll change my mind, but I'm curious was the DLF community thinks. Also, I think my trade partner thinks I'm crazy for declining, so maybe this is a rose colored glasses check.

I personally think 2021 1sts should be worth less than previous draft yrs due to a weak class and other unknown variables surrounding covid. I've outlined my 2021 1st rounder valuation in a more through manner in this thread incase your curious - viewtopic.php?f=5&t=203648

Just feels like you'd be lucky to end up with anything close to what Adams gives you, even with 4 shots in the dark in a weaker draft class.

To me this is 4 quarters for a dollar, what do you think?

*for ref, the picks would likely be around 1.08, 1.10, 1.11, & 1.12

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Re: Adams or 4 later 2021 1sts

Postby BeeziBad » Fri Jun 26, 2020 10:50 am

in terms of value i think adams is not worth 4 firsts. maybe 3 late firsts is even. but the thing is this; 2021 firsts don't help you win in 2020.
The Mega Powers - 12Team - 1QB/2RB/3WR/1TE/2FLEX/1K - 1PPR
QB - R. Tannehill, T. Bridgewater
RB - J. Taylor, JK Dobbins, C. Akers, Z. Moss, R. Jones, R. Armstead, M. Davis, C. Edmonds
WR - J. Jeudy, H. Ruggs, T. Higgins, L. Shenault, C. Claypool, J. Reagor, C. Davis, J. Washington, B. Aiyuk, Q. Cephus, KJ Hamler, A. Lazard
TE - C. Herndon, D. Sample
Picks - 2021 - 1, 1, 1

Jabroni Beaters - 10Team - 1QB/2RB/3WR/1TE/2FLEX/1K - NONPPR
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RB - S. Barkley, E. Elliott, JK Dobbins, A. Peterson, M. Breida, D. Freeman
WR - T. Hill. AJ Brown, DJ Moore, J. Jefferson, J. Edelman, B. Aiyuk, L. Shenault, JJAW, B. Edwards
TE - Z. Ertz, H. Hurst, J. Smith

SuperSonics - 10Team - 1QB/2RB/2WR/1TE/2FLEX/1K - .5 PPR
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Re: Adams or 4 later 2021 1sts

Postby Z$$$ » Fri Jun 26, 2020 10:51 am

Adams. Even if a couple of the picks were early to me it’s still Adams. Even more if competing
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Re: Adams or 4 later 2021 1sts

Postby Gator Sens » Fri Jun 26, 2020 10:53 am

If you are a contender, I would hold Adams especially with the uncertainty if college football this year. In a rebuild, that is pretty solid value.

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Re: Adams or 4 later 2021 1sts

Postby makemeasandwich » Fri Jun 26, 2020 11:16 am

I'd shy away from selling proven studs unless you're getting another proven asset back as the core piece of the compensation. If he's willing to trade (4) '21 1st's I imagine he's willing to part with a pretty spiffy upside prospect.

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Re: Adams or 4 later 2021 1sts

Postby FantasyFoosball » Fri Jun 26, 2020 11:40 am

I'm not a fan of selling elite players for just picks. I'd want at least one solid established player coming back in any deal where I'm giving away a player like Adams.
Team One:
10 Team Salary Cap League w/ IDP - Est. 2018
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2019: Champions!!
2020: 2nd Place
2021: Loss in Semis
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1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 WR/TE, 1 K, 2 DL, 2 LB, 2 DB, 3 DL/LB/DB

QB - Mahomes
RB - CMC, White, Sanders, Herbert, Foreman, McKinnon
WR - Diggs, Ridley, Godwin, KJ Osborn, Woods, Claypool, Campbell
TE - Kittle, Goedert, Gesicki
K - Bass
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Re: Adams or 4 later 2021 1sts

Postby dblj1199 » Fri Jun 26, 2020 11:48 am

Pre-2021 draft, where you know the picks, potential players you could acquire, etc, then I'd be more inclined to move him. If your contending it's a easy pass, rebuilding I'd probably consider it more.
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RB- S Barkley, Pollard, B Hall, K Herbert, D Foreman, R Johnson, Zeke, J Robinson, Z White, J Wilson(i.r.), J McKinnon, J Mason, J Hill
WR- J Jefferson, Deebo, DJ Moore, OBJ, S Moore, J Jennings, C Austin, Trey Palmer
TE- Andrews, Higbee, Dulchich, Ferguson, D Washington
IDP(3)- P Queen,D Perryman, J Jewell, J Campbell, N Dean (i.r.)
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Re: Adams or 4 later 2021 1sts

Postby briank » Fri Jun 26, 2020 11:50 am

Johnny Canuck wrote: Fri Jun 26, 2020 10:47 am I've already declined this offer, and don't think I'll change my mind, but I'm curious was the DLF community thinks. Also, I think my trade partner thinks I'm crazy for declining, so maybe this is a rose colored glasses check.

I personally think 2021 1sts should be worth less than previous draft yrs due to a weak class and other unknown variables surrounding covid. I've outlined my 2021 1st rounder valuation in a more through manner in this thread incase your curious - viewtopic.php?f=5&t=203648

Just feels like you'd be lucky to end up with anything close to what Adams gives you, even with 4 shots in the dark in a weaker draft class.

To me this is 4 quarters for a dollar, what do you think?

*for ref, the picks would likely be around 1.08, 1.10, 1.11, & 1.12
I think that is fantastic value. Projecting picks is imperfect. With 4, there's a decent chance at least 1 of them turns into a much better pick than you expect. I've traded for a projected late 1st that turned into the 1.02 in the past.

I'm not convinced 21 is a weak class. I'm less enthusiastic about it in a 1 QB league, but this could be another loaded class IMO. If we get closer and it doesn't look so great, you can always use those assets for other players. People weren't too excited about the 19 class and it turned out to be pretty good as well.

More importantly is the state of your team. without knowing everything about your league, I think it's a pretty good team and a likely contender, but it doesn't look like a powerhouse. This is the kind of team I would seriously consider retooling. You could punt a year, and have a great young core.
12 tm tiered PPR Superflex start 9
QB Allen/Tubisky/Lock
RB Mixon/Harris/Etienne
WR DJ Moore
TE Kelce/Irv
2022 1.06/1.09
2023 3x 1st

12 tm tiered PPR Superflex start 10
QB Mahomes/Watson/Ryan
RB CMC/Zeke/Mixon/Sanders
WR Evans/Godwin/Robinson/Golladay/Thielen/Lockett/Fuller
TE Kittle/Waller/L. Thomas

12 tm tiered PPR Superflex start 10
QB Mahomes/Murray/Brady
RB CMC
WR Adams/Hill/Diggs/AJ Brown/Aiyuk/Woods/R. Moore
TE Kelce/Kittle/Njoku
2x 2023 1sts

12 tm PPR 1.5 for TE Superflex start 2 TE start 12
QB Herbert/Tua/Lawrence/Fields
RB Harris/Etienne
WR Jefferson/Deebo/Lamb/DSmith/Sutton/Juedy/Kirk/E. Moore/R. Moore
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Re: Adams or 4 later 2021 1sts

Postby Yarnith » Fri Jun 26, 2020 12:12 pm

I agree with the concept if you are a heavy contender or Adams is more your W1 than your WR3 you keep him otherwise 4 1sts is pretty solid offer. I do think you should look deeper at the 21 class though.

I dont know the policy about other site links so I wont reference but you should search for comparisons between the 2020 and the 2021 classes. I have seen many that say as historic as 2020's WR class was 2021 is actually measurably better. Etienne and Lawrence are easily in the mix compared to the RB's and QB's we covet in 2020 as well.
Cavaliers 12 team standard, 1QB, 1RB, 1WR, 2WR/TE, 1flex
QB: J. Allen, S. Howell, Z.Wilson
RB: A. Kamara, J. Taylor, CEH, K. Gainwell, P. Strong
WR: A.J. Brown, A. Cooper, J. Dotson, C. Ridley, E. Moore, W. Robinson, J. Meyers, T. Marshall,
TE: G. Kittle, J. Johnson, J. Woods, H. Henry
'23 1.10, 2.10, 3.10 '24 1, 2, 3
Recent Championships '19,'21,'22

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QB: Mahomes, Purdy, Lance
RB: Pierce, Miller, K. Herbert, E. Hull
WR: Chase, Watson, Davis, JSN, Metchie, Pierce, V. Jefferson, Claypool, Thornton, Westbrook-Ikhine
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Re: Adams or 4 later 2021 1sts

Postby chalorpas » Fri Jun 26, 2020 12:37 pm

Your team doesn’t look like a contender with or without Adams so I’d probably take the picks. Four 1sts is a great haul, even if the draft class is affected by COVID.

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Re: Adams or 4 later 2021 1sts

Postby Johnny Canuck » Fri Jun 26, 2020 12:41 pm

Yarnith wrote: Fri Jun 26, 2020 12:12 pm I agree with the concept if you are a heavy contender or Adams is more your W1 than your WR3 you keep him otherwise 4 1sts is pretty solid offer. I do think you should look deeper at the 21 class though.

I dont know the policy about other site links so I wont reference but you should search for comparisons between the 2020 and the 2021 classes. I have seen many that say as historic as 2020's WR class was 2021 is actually measurably better. Etienne and Lawrence are easily in the mix compared to the RB's and QB's we covet in 2020 as well.
Thanks for all the replies so far everyone.

The part in bold could be my main issue with the trade itself. I've done a fair bit of digging and I don't love the prospects that would/could be around late round 1, esp in a 1QB league.

- I like Chase, Etienne, and Chuba...after that everyone feels like a roll player to me. So I'm only confident in the top 3 picks on my board.
- I really liked Ross but he could be going the way of Cooper Manning.
- Verdell, Harris, Hill all seem like okay 2nd tier RB options but I don't think they're can't miss by any means.
- I like Moore but he's smallish so he's prob not an alpha.
- Smith and Terry are intriguing but would need more scouting to be sure they're not Hakeem Butlers. Which we'll hopefully get this yr...if not, then they're still risky imo.

That and, who knows if these guys would all even declare if the season is cancelled this yr. If only half of these guys declare...rough

I'm open to have my mind changed on these guys though (or anyone I didn't list as well), I definitely don't consider myself to be a tape scouting guru by any means. So if you any information that is contrary please share, it'd be cool to read. Always looking to learn and have more informed view.

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Re: Adams or 4 later 2021 1sts

Postby Johnny Canuck » Fri Jun 26, 2020 12:47 pm

chalorpas wrote: Fri Jun 26, 2020 12:37 pm Your team doesn’t look like a contender with or without Adams so I’d probably take the picks. Four 1sts is a great haul, even if the draft class is affected by COVID.
Right now in this league, they're two absolute powerhouses, and my squad would prob slot in the 3rd/4th spot tbh (at worst 5th). That's why I have some hesitancy to trade Adams away (even if it was for five 1sts...well I'd prob have to pull the trigger at five 1sts regardless of contender status lol). But even a powerhouse can get hit with injuries or have a bad week in the semi-finals right.

So I def have a shot at a championship in this league, prob playoffs for sure (barring injury).

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Re: Adams or 4 later 2021 1sts

Postby Yarnith » Fri Jun 26, 2020 4:20 pm

No love for Chris Olave? Rashod Bateman? I could point out how high everyone is on Jeudy and Ruggs and then point that Devonta Smith out produced BOTH of them and played in less games than either. I mean if Jeudy is elite whats that make Smith? This is all without anyone having "a year" like Burrow did. Keep in mind before this year Burrow was the kid who couldn't beat out Dwayne Haskins so he transferred and was just ok for LSU in 2018.
Cavaliers 12 team standard, 1QB, 1RB, 1WR, 2WR/TE, 1flex
QB: J. Allen, S. Howell, Z.Wilson
RB: A. Kamara, J. Taylor, CEH, K. Gainwell, P. Strong
WR: A.J. Brown, A. Cooper, J. Dotson, C. Ridley, E. Moore, W. Robinson, J. Meyers, T. Marshall,
TE: G. Kittle, J. Johnson, J. Woods, H. Henry
'23 1.10, 2.10, 3.10 '24 1, 2, 3
Recent Championships '19,'21,'22

Fosters Home for Imaginary Friends- 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, 2Flex
QB: Mahomes, Purdy, Lance
RB: Pierce, Miller, K. Herbert, E. Hull
WR: Chase, Watson, Davis, JSN, Metchie, Pierce, V. Jefferson, Claypool, Thornton, Westbrook-Ikhine
TE: Pitts, Woods, Latu

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Re: Adams or 4 later 2021 1sts

Postby StripesOfKC » Fri Jun 26, 2020 4:27 pm

Yarnith wrote: Fri Jun 26, 2020 4:20 pm No love for Chris Olave? Rashod Bateman? I could point out how high everyone is on Jeudy and Ruggs and then point that Devonta Smith out produced BOTH of them and played in less games than either. I mean if Jeudy is elite whats that make Smith? This is all without anyone having "a year" like Burrow did. Keep in mind before this year Burrow was the kid who couldn't beat out Dwayne Haskins so he transferred and was just ok for LSU in 2018.
And Waddle

Not to mention 2 stud TE prospects in Pitts+Firiermuth

RBs are weak but rest of the class looks solid to me

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Re: Adams or 4 later 2021 1sts

Postby Yarnith » Fri Jun 26, 2020 4:31 pm

StripesOfKC wrote: Fri Jun 26, 2020 4:27 pm
Yarnith wrote: Fri Jun 26, 2020 4:20 pm No love for Chris Olave? Rashod Bateman? I could point out how high everyone is on Jeudy and Ruggs and then point that Devonta Smith out produced BOTH of them and played in less games than either. I mean if Jeudy is elite whats that make Smith? This is all without anyone having "a year" like Burrow did. Keep in mind before this year Burrow was the kid who couldn't beat out Dwayne Haskins so he transferred and was just ok for LSU in 2018.
And Waddle

Not to mention 2 stud TE prospects in Pitts+Firiermuth

RBs are weak but rest of the class looks solid to me
True true.. I originally thought '21 was going to be weak but the WR are crazy if you just comp their sophomore years to the players we all drool over in the 2020 draft its just crazy.
Cavaliers 12 team standard, 1QB, 1RB, 1WR, 2WR/TE, 1flex
QB: J. Allen, S. Howell, Z.Wilson
RB: A. Kamara, J. Taylor, CEH, K. Gainwell, P. Strong
WR: A.J. Brown, A. Cooper, J. Dotson, C. Ridley, E. Moore, W. Robinson, J. Meyers, T. Marshall,
TE: G. Kittle, J. Johnson, J. Woods, H. Henry
'23 1.10, 2.10, 3.10 '24 1, 2, 3
Recent Championships '19,'21,'22

Fosters Home for Imaginary Friends- 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, 2Flex
QB: Mahomes, Purdy, Lance
RB: Pierce, Miller, K. Herbert, E. Hull
WR: Chase, Watson, Davis, JSN, Metchie, Pierce, V. Jefferson, Claypool, Thornton, Westbrook-Ikhine
TE: Pitts, Woods, Latu


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