Is Drake worth a 1st+?

[Zacsby]

I'd be happy with 1 year or RB1 production. I have Drake, but there are so many possible outcomes, including a committee by then end of the year, a 1 and done in Arizona, and never gets lead back duties again etc. etc. As much as I liked the way he looked, there is no guarantee beyond the first few weeks of the season what his role is. It's really dependant on how he plays.

I'd be happy with one as well. I only paid a 21 2nd (hopefully late) and Corey Davis for him. Lol. Was pretty ecstatic about it. And I totally acknowledge there are risks with Drake. That's not really the point though. OP wants to buy a RB with big upside using a random future 1st and maybe a little something on top. So we're looking at guys like Drake, Monty, Gurley, MG3, (Singletary?) etc as realistic targets. Some of these guys might be safer. But based on what Drake did last year, I think he has the potential to be the biggest true difference maker of the bunch.

[makemeasandwich]

The guy who currently owns Drake is asking for his own 1st back for him plus something else. I'll add his team as well to help you decide where his pick finishes:

Mayfield
Fournette
Conner
Golladay
Cooks
Diggs
Drake
CEH
Ebron

This is for my team 2 roster below. Obviously RB starved. I have tried OBJ for CEH but he won't budge. I'm not interested in Conner or Fournette really. There are no top heavy teams, I'm right in the mix. I also believe Drakes value is about to soar when he signs an extension and really doesn't have much mileage on his legs.

Should I offer his '21 first and a '22 second?

How bad is this guys team? Will he have a top 4 '21 1st?

[Yarnith]

Drake is not worth it, RB's fade at 27 he may get you 2 years tops. That is assuming AZ keeps him and they don't regress this year offensively, traditionally they will and I see last season more as his ceiling than floor. However you have already said you think he will be an elite back which bucks consensus so I don't know how much we could help you. I would make none of those trades.

Not sure how you can definitively say that. I understand that's what the numbers as a whole tell us, doesn't mean it applies to everyone. Drake hasn't exactly seen crazy usage throughout his career and looked as explosive as ever in ARIs offense. Even if that's the case, two years of RB1 production could be all OP needs to win a ship or two.

I am not sure what you mean, that RB's fade at 27? They do, don't confuse fading with useless it just means they peak. Are there outliers? Absolutely, Raheem Mostert had his best year at 28. I am still not going to pay a first for him. Drake is an older, high risk back sitting around 20 in ADP and most rankings among backs.

I think AZ offense regresses? Normally after the first year of a new offensive headcoach defenses catchup just like when a player catches them off guard. There is tape now so it is much harder to surprise them. Keep in mind this is a Headcoach who couldn't sustain wins at the college level so thinking he may have a learning curve is no stretch.

The only thing I am definitively saying is there are tons of redflags here saying temper expectations and I don't pay 1st for those types of players. None of that means I don't like the player,his chances at doing well or anything else. I just don't buy that much risk with a 1st rnd pick. If I am going to roll the dice, I'm rolling on the 21yr old.

[Zacsby]

I am not sure what you mean, that RB's fade at 27? They do, don't confuse fading with useless it just means they peak. Are there outliers? Absolutely, Raheem Mostert had his best year at 28. I am still not going to pay a first for him. Drake is an older, high risk back sitting around 20 in ADP and most rankings among backs.

I think AZ offense regresses? Normally after the first year of a new offensive headcoach defenses catchup just like when a player catches them off guard. There is tape now so it is much harder to surprise them. Keep in mind this is a Headcoach who couldn't sustain wins at the college level so thinking he may have a learning curve is no stretch.

The only thing I am definitively saying is there are tons of redflags here saying temper expectations and I don't pay 1st for those types of players. None of that means I don't like the player,his chances at doing well or anything else. I just don't buy that much risk with a 1st rnd pick. If I am going to roll the dice, I'm rolling on the 21yr old.

I feel like you're missing the point. In this case, the 21 year old doesn't even have a chance to help you till next year. Even then it's only a chance. OP feels like he has a window to compete now.

If it's just your policy to not trade 1sts for risky players then that's fine I guess. 1sts are inherently risky as well though. Particularly future ones. There are plenty of owners who went out and bought players like Henry, Ekeler, Aaron Jones, Carson, Ingram, etc for a 1st when there was significant risk involved, and I'm sure it paid off for quite a few of them.

As far as your argument against Drake and the Arizona offense goes...it seems like you're taking very broad, generalized theories and applying them to very specific situations absolutely. I understand the premise behind playing the odds like this is blackjack or whatever but all you're really doing with the whole RB age/production curve thing is avoiding misses. Which is fine most of the time. But sometimes you gotta be able to flip that switch and look for an unexpected hit.

[Yarnith]

So for clarity I listed all the flags that make Drake a sketchy option at RB1 and I did just say a 1st but keep in mind this is Mims and a 1st or Fant and a 1st. I wouldn't trade him for the 1st, that is my opinion. The OP is talking about a 1st and Mims or Fant which I think is a massive overpay for the risk you take on. You can disagree that is fine, discussions are good both sides present the reasoning for their point of view.

I understand he wants to make a move on win now but the vast majority of responses including mine say look elsewhere. If you are going to pay up for a "win now" guy then you pay for as sure a thing as possible and I don't see how Drake is that guy. Tevin Coleman could be the RB darling in SF this year and is likely far cheaper to gamble on, as an example.

[CGW]

I understand he wants to make a move on win now but the vast majority of responses including mine say look elsewhere. If you are going to pay up for a "win now" guy then you pay for as sure a thing as possible and I don't see how Drake is that guy. Tevin Coleman could be the RB darling in SF this year and is likely far cheaper to gamble on, as an example.

While I agree with you on not paying a 1st+ for drake, this is a very contradictory statement. Coleman is in no way a more sure thing than Drake. Coleman is a much cheaper option, but not a "sure as thing as possible" nor does he have as much upside as Drake in the 2020 season.

[Yarnith]

I understand he wants to make a move on win now but the vast majority of responses including mine say look elsewhere. If you are going to pay up for a "win now" guy then you pay for as sure a thing as possible and I don't see how Drake is that guy. Tevin Coleman could be the RB darling in SF this year and is likely far cheaper to gamble on, as an example.

While I agree with you on not paying a 1st+ for drake, this is a very contradictory statement. Coleman is in no way a more sure thing than Drake. Coleman is a much cheaper option, but not a "sure as thing as possible" nor does he have as much upside as Drake in the 2020 season.

My statement is Coleman would be a far cheaper gamble than Drake. A safer RB for 1st+Fant would be Monte in Chicago or A.Jones. Monte has a great upside is young while A Jones for a push to win this year is a solid choice though not one I would personally pursue because I think its shortsighted. I grabbed this randomly off trade analyzer.

[Zacsby]

My statement is Coleman would be a far cheaper gamble than Drake. A safer RB for 1st+Fant would be Monte in Chicago or A.Jones. Monte has a great upside is young while A Jones for a push to win this year is a solid choice though not one I would personally pursue because I think its shortsighted. I grabbed this randomly off trade analyzer.

Coleman was grossly outperformed by Mostert, not sure how he helps your chances of winning a championship at all...Monty is one of the least explosive starting RBs in the league, doubt he's putting anyone over the top. Aaron Jones is a good one but GB is not resigning him and there's still a decent chance Arizona extends Drake. AJ also has tougher competition in the backfield. I've yet to see a player suggested that has a definitively better combination of risk/upside than Drake.

[Yarnith]

My statement is Coleman would be a far cheaper gamble than Drake. A safer RB for 1st+Fant would be Monte in Chicago or A.Jones. Monte has a great upside is young while A Jones for a push to win this year is a solid choice though not one I would personally pursue because I think its shortsighted. I grabbed this randomly off trade analyzer.

Coleman was grossly outperformed by Mostert, not sure how he helps your chances of winning a championship at all...Monty is one of the least explosive starting RBs in the league, doubt he's putting anyone over the top. Aaron Jones is a good one but GB is not resigning him and there's still a decent chance Arizona extends Drake. AJ also has tougher competition in the backfield. I've yet to see a player suggested that has a definitively better combination of risk/upside than Drake.

The 49ers devalue the RB position and just like his father in Denver any RB in that backfield is potentially the man this year. Mostert was hot the last 6 weeks of last year and big in the playoffs but couldn't beat out Coleman for 10 weeks before that in the timeshare. So Coleman for essentially free? Why not its a gamble in the disposable part of your roster.

Well it is ok for you to believe Drake is a better option than Aaron Jones for this season, I disagree strongly. Regardless of his cloudy future he has put in multiple years producing at a high level with no reason he will not repeat this year. Monte didn't look all that great last year but then Chicago was a trainwreck all over. He is very pedestrian and team dependent but he managed 1000 yards and 7tds in a cesspit of ineptitude. So for all his faults and how bad Chicago was he still put up RB2 numbers. If Foles makes the team competitive they stay in more games, then they run more and he should have better stats. This makes me feel that we saw his floor and while he may be supplanted by the end of his rookie contract I think he should have a solid RB2 performance with upside if Chicagos offense ticks upward for a few years. Kareen Hunt or Chris Carson may greatly outperform him on a given week but how many weeks of 0 can you take and win your championship?

You believe in Drake because you do. I see no definitive reason for it. Do you also believe Mostert is worth the same value as Drake? a 1st plus? I wouldn't pay that for him either but your arguments for Drake would apply to Mostert as well. If not why not?

[Finfansteve]

I’d forget about drake he’s a replacement level player who’s in a great situation for now but I doubt at his age he’s their long term solution at that position

[Zacsby]

You believe in Drake because you do. I see no definitive reason for it. Do you also believe Mostert is worth the same value as Drake? a 1st plus? I wouldn't pay that for him either but your arguments for Drake would apply to Mostert as well. If not why not?

No I believe Drake is worth more because he's 2 years younger and should be in less of a committee. He was traded for and then utilized heavily by a team that really didn't need to go out of their way to get a RB. Now he's on a 1 year 8 million dollar deal and despite that, they didn't draft another RB till extremely late in the draft. I think there's a better chance he gets extended because of this and the fact that his body of work up to this point isn't going to dictate a big money contract.

Finally, I don't believe what he did last year was a fluke. Pretty much throughout Drake's whole career the issue has been usage. Well he finally got the usage and sure enough, he blew up. They made major improvements to that offense. And I really don't believe that offense is going to struggle just because its Kliffs 2nd year running it, as you previously suggested. If you can present legitimate evidence that there is a correlation between offensive efficiency and how many years the coordinator has been running that offense, then I'd take that into consideration. Sounds like pure conjecture to me though.

[Yarnith]

Well you are entitled to your opinions. You think and I think, its a lot of think. I stated my opinions and gave reasoning for them. You gave yours and I agree we disagree. There are trends and there are facts and if the answered happened in the offseason we wouldn't need them to play games. I am sure the OP long doesn't care and this thread is now you disagreeing with me disagreeing with you so I don't see a point in going on. If AZ blows up and Drakes the league winner then you will know you got it right. Time will tell

[tom14cat14]

Don't buy Drake, his value will most likely decline. He turns 27 in season. He could put up great numbers and his value will still decline. Then they draft a RB next year and everyone will abandon ship and you will be stuck. Fant has potential to be a stud TE. It looks like that pick could be mid to early next year.

[Adam_172]

Drake is worth a mid-late 1st to me so worth a chance on a random 1st but I probably wouldn't add to it. Too many question marks over him.

[AresGodOWar]

Drake is going to put up top 5 RB numbers if he stays healthy.

The offence is loaded he was really good there last year in Murrays rookie season and without Hopkins , Murray , Hopkins , Kirk , Fitz , Arnold he is going to face 7 man fronts all game every game.. Drake has always put up good numbers per touch even in college the problem was he played behind really good RBs and got hurt in college , In the NFL he played with Gase the fantasy football player killer the worst coach in the league that doesn't have a clue.

I do think he gets a 3 year contract , He doesn't have a 26 year old starting RBs wear and tear on him , Its pretty much more like a 24 year olds touch amount.

It you really wanna talk about risk , I mean what is the bust rate for 1st round fantasy football RBs like %50 maybe ? And then with the 2021 1st your a year off of the draft and if your lucky and he don't bust your about 2-3 years off when he produces for you