Rookie Draft Help! (UPDATE-3rd round pick)

[briank]

Hello Everyone, first post here and new user. Excited to join!

I currently am in a 1QB half ppr dynasty league. Quick insight, this will be the 3rd season (newer league and my first dynasty league). I had some players retire over these few years (Luck, Baldwin, Marshawn, Kuechly) and essentially tanked last year and sold Kelce for a 2020 1st, 2021 1st & 2nd.

I also traded my 1st overall pick this year for 3&8th pick this year. So now I have 3,7,8 in round 1 and 13th overall pick (2.01). My problem is I literally have no QB due to trading Matt Ryan before Luck retired and rolling with Jacoby last year but now he has been demoted.

My plan is:
-1.03: Dobbins or JT/CED (if one somehow falls)
-1.07: Take a WR (Lamb, Jeudy, Reagor in that order whoever is left)
-1.08: Take Joe Burrow (early but I feel like he will not last until pick 2.01 based off some people's rosters and how our league hoards QBs due to large roster size).
-2.01: Go with best available player, most likely a wr if Pittman or Higgins falls or possibly Cam/Vaugn at RB.

Thoughts? Would love some insight from anyone who is willing to chime in. Also, for rounds 3,4,5 I was going to look for just best fit for my team, possibly seeing if Joshua Jackson falls to round 3.


Details about the league and my team


-Starting Roster: 15 (1QB/ 1RB/ 1WR/ 3Flex/ 1kicker/ 2 DL/ 2 LB/ 2DB)
-Bench: 25 (any positions)
-IR: 3 (must be officially listed on IR)
-Practice Squad: 3 (basically rookies who have not played or others who barely did)

Currently my team is very weak and this draft is key to rebuild. I do have some key pieces such as Dhopkins, Deebo Samuel, Austin Eckler, Melvin Gordon. The rest of my team are all low tier players, some with upside or backups (Justin Jackson, Irv Smith, etc..)

I would not even consider taking Burrow at 1.08 in a 1QB league. I don't care if your league hordes QB or any other factors. It's a mistake. If he's not there at 2.01, take Tua. If both are gone, take Herbert later. If you miss on all of them, roll with some cheap veterans. Whatever you do, don't use the 1.08 in a loaded draft on a QB.

[briank]

Lol. Oh yeah. That's worse than I thought.

Try to sell Hopkins now to a contender, see if you can get some more draft picks/young pieces. You should have sold him last year for sure. I mean, you could really sell anyone/everyone. Deebo and Irv Smith are the two I would keep for now.

I personally prefer Swift, Jeudy and Lamb to Dobbins. That team is so far away from competing, that I would absolutely take one of Jeudy/Lamb over Dobbins. Swift/Dobbins may be out of the league by the time you are competing.... (half joking).

Go BPA with all of your picks after that. Just depends on who is available. I think taking Burrow at 1.08 would be awful.

It doesn't take long to rebuild an awful team if you know what you're doing and it seems like this guy is on the right track. I'd stick with the plan of Dobbins at 1.03. He's probably not going to be a big factor until 2021 anyways, and he could definitely be in contention by that time. Even if I'm a couple year away from contention, I'm taking BPA. RB hit right away and can be sold for more sooner to continue the build.

[mild]

Piling on. This is less an attempt to build a team at this point more than it is to treat it like an asset portfolio. You're not even close to fielding a competitor... but rebuilding is fun! Remember to target young hype pieces that go down this season on competitors rosters - picking up talent for cheap is how you'll get off the floor here. (ie Derrius Guice last two seasons)

Make sure you get a haul for Hopkins.

DON'T take a QB in the 8 spot.

[FantasyFoosball]

Lol. Oh yeah. That's worse than I thought.

Try to sell Hopkins now to a contender, see if you can get some more draft picks/young pieces. You should have sold him last year for sure. I mean, you could really sell anyone/everyone. Deebo and Irv Smith are the two I would keep for now.

I personally prefer Swift, Jeudy and Lamb to Dobbins. That team is so far away from competing, that I would absolutely take one of Jeudy/Lamb over Dobbins. Swift/Dobbins may be out of the league by the time you are competing.... (half joking).

Go BPA with all of your picks after that. Just depends on who is available. I think taking Burrow at 1.08 would be awful.

It doesn't take long to rebuild an awful team if you know what you're doing and it seems like this guy is on the right track. I'd stick with the plan of Dobbins at 1.03. He's probably not going to be a big factor until 2021 anyways, and he could definitely be in contention by that time. Even if I'm a couple year away from contention, I'm taking BPA. RB hit right away and can be sold for more sooner to continue the build.

Lol. I’d love to hear how that team could be in contention by next year...

[jjleurquin]

If Akers is available at the 8 spot you take him.

[briank]

Lol. Oh yeah. That's worse than I thought.

Try to sell Hopkins now to a contender, see if you can get some more draft picks/young pieces. You should have sold him last year for sure. I mean, you could really sell anyone/everyone. Deebo and Irv Smith are the two I would keep for now.

I personally prefer Swift, Jeudy and Lamb to Dobbins. That team is so far away from competing, that I would absolutely take one of Jeudy/Lamb over Dobbins. Swift/Dobbins may be out of the league by the time you are competing.... (half joking).

Go BPA with all of your picks after that. Just depends on who is available. I think taking Burrow at 1.08 would be awful.

It doesn't take long to rebuild an awful team if you know what you're doing and it seems like this guy is on the right track. I'd stick with the plan of Dobbins at 1.03. He's probably not going to be a big factor until 2021 anyways, and he could definitely be in contention by that time. Even if I'm a couple year away from contention, I'm taking BPA. RB hit right away and can be sold for more sooner to continue the build.

Lol. I’d love to hear how that team could be in contention by next year...

I've turned a orphan almost completely devoid of talent around in 2 years. I came in 3rd in year 3. This team isn't even that bad considering his starting requirements. I admittedly don't know much about IDP, but his starting requirements for skill positions are low. You can find startable QB play in a 1 QB without giving up anything significant. From there, it looks like he only has to start 1RB/1WR/3FLEX. He could do that right now with Hopkins, Ekeler, Deebo, Gordon and the 4 1sts he's sitting on. It's not a stretch at all to think he can't be competitive in a year or two if he can turn Hopkins, Ekeler, and Gordon into 5-6 young assets and draft well.

Maybe he's more than a year away from serious contention, but that shouldn't deter him from taking a RB. The top RB's are more likely to gain value in year 1 than WR. WR is more likely to lose value in year 1. There is a chance he could trade Dobbins for Lambs or Juedy + this time next year.

[LondonMonarchs]

Commit to the multi year rebuild and enjoy the ride. I am beginning one, sig below, and can't wait for the next few years. 110% look for longer term value.

[dynasty12]

Most people in here are saying don't take Burrow at 8. Conventional Dynasty twitter and forums would mostly all yell don't do it.

But I think it is worth noting that only you know how your league values players. A lot of times dynasty internet locks into the same mindset (wait on QB, WRs are long term assets over RBs and so on). You seem to be looking at a rebuild. If Burrow is your guy, I say take Burrow.

If its 1999 and in a dynasty startup I take Peyton Manning at 1 overall over Marshall Faulk did I really mess up the pick? There is value in not having to worry about Quarterback for a decade... Even in a 1QB league. Or more recently if Mahomes or Lamar was your guy at 8, would anybody be saying you messed up the pick?

If you take [insert player here] at 8 and he busts. And Tua at 13 and he busts. Was is really worth passing on Burrow if he thrives?

The point I guess I'm trying to make is, understand conventional dynasty value, understand league value, and then do you/what you think is best. Allow yourself flexibility, there isn't only one way to do this.

[briank]

Most people in here are saying don't take Burrow at 8. Conventional Dynasty twitter and forums would mostly all yell don't do it.

But I think it is worth noting that only you know how your league values players. A lot of times dynasty internet locks into the same mindset (wait on QB, WRs are long term assets over RBs and so on). You seem to be looking at a rebuild. If Burrow is your guy, I say take Burrow.

If its 1999 and in a dynasty startup I take Peyton Manning at 1 overall over Marshall Faulk did I really mess up the pick? There is value in not having to worry about Quarterback for a decade... Even in a 1QB league. Or more recently if Mahomes or Lamar was your guy at 8, would anybody be saying you messed up the pick?

If you take [insert player here] at 8 and he busts. And Tua at 13 and he busts. Was is really worth passing on Burrow if he thrives?

The point I guess I'm trying to make is, understand conventional dynasty value, understand league value, and then do you/what you think is best. Allow yourself flexibility, there isn't only one way to do this.

I was in a league like this. A bunch of people that have no idea what they are doing, were impossible to trade with, overvalued and horded QB etc. Then, one year Baker Mayfield falls into my lap in the 3rd round of the rookie draft. Tannehill was probably on the waiver wire in most 1 QB leagues. You can always find a startable QB.

[nicktahoes]

With a full rebuild I recommend going BPA pretty much every pick. You have a good idea of what will probably go. At 1.08 down be afraid to take Akers or Swift. I agree with everyone else that 2.01 is the earliest to take Burrow. Even then since you're full rebuild I don't know if I would take a QB. Draft Jefferson/Reagor/Ruggs/Pittman or whichever wr you like best there.

So maybe you can leave the draft with Dobbins/Jeudy/Akers/Reagor. Not the prettiest but very nice.

Also see if you can trade Hopkins and Ekeler like everyone else said. Maybe get another top five pick or two.

[dynasty12]

Most people in here are saying don't take Burrow at 8. Conventional Dynasty twitter and forums would mostly all yell don't do it.

But I think it is worth noting that only you know how your league values players. A lot of times dynasty internet locks into the same mindset (wait on QB, WRs are long term assets over RBs and so on). You seem to be looking at a rebuild. If Burrow is your guy, I say take Burrow.

If its 1999 and in a dynasty startup I take Peyton Manning at 1 overall over Marshall Faulk did I really mess up the pick? There is value in not having to worry about Quarterback for a decade... Even in a 1QB league. Or more recently if Mahomes or Lamar was your guy at 8, would anybody be saying you messed up the pick?

If you take [insert player here] at 8 and he busts. And Tua at 13 and he busts. Was is really worth passing on Burrow if he thrives?

The point I guess I'm trying to make is, understand conventional dynasty value, understand league value, and then do you/what you think is best. Allow yourself flexibility, there isn't only one way to do this.

I was in a league like this. A bunch of people that have no idea what they are doing, were impossible to trade with, overvalued and horded QB etc. Then, one year Baker Mayfield falls into my lap in the 3rd round of the rookie draft. Tannehill was probably on the waiver wire in most 1 QB leagues. You can always find a startable QB.

So you understand, not owning a starting QB in a league where owners hoard QBs is a brutal fate. You find owners asking for a 2nd for Case Keenum, or Ryan Fitzpatrick. Its a ridiculous market. If you wait until 13 and take Tua (assuming Burrow doesn't make it there) and he is the week 1 starter, all is well. If Tua doesn't win the job, you find yourself knee deep in that ridiculous market.

Then the cost of Tua goes up from the 13th pick to whatever the cost of a Week 1 starting QB, usually a price set by the hoarder or your entire waiver budget in the preseason. (this is assuming you want to field a whole roster).

Especially in this years deep class, a WR or RB taken in the 2nd round will definitely be there at 13 (might even get a round 1 wideout there). Why not ensure you get the guaranteed starting QB you want and take whatever WR/RB falls to you? Is something like Burrow and Higgins that much worse than say Tua and Ruggs?

[Yarnith]

I won my first fantasy bowl with Trent Dilfer in Baltimore as my qb1. Never overpay and always BPA.

[dynasty12]

I won my first fantasy bowl with Trent Dilfer in Baltimore as my qb1. Never overpay and always BPA.

I took one with patrick laird this year. And Stephen Ridley the year before. I won with fitzmagic a few years ago. You can win with bad players. You cant win if you cant field a lineup.

What is overpayment when one or two qb hoarders dictates the market? How do you quantify it?

Is overpaying for a qb less detrimental to your team than not having a startable qb? It could be worth drafting a qb at 8 to not have to enter the hoarders market.

[adamzaff]

Thanks everyone! I may have a trade offer on the table after sending out some feelers.

Trade my 8th overall pick (1.08 for 2020) for 10th overall pick (1.10 2020) and his 2nd round pick for 2021 (his team is a contender so it should be a late pick next year).

Thoughts here? If I am able to do this, I should be able to grab the BAP at 7 (hopefully one of the 3 WR's I want), move back and grab BAP (poss grab Burrow at 10 or 13). That will leave me next year with 2 first rounders and 3 second rounders.

One concern I have is that I personally do not know if there is a must have around pick 8 like there may be in first 2 tiers or so. If so, maybe I stay and get that player opposed to moving back. Thoughts overall?

[adamzaff]

Also, I totally missed page two here. The reason I started this discussion is due to what Dynasty12 is referring to.

I clearly did not prepare 1-2yrs ago when I traded Matt Ryan and then Luck retired...that is on me but it is where I stand today. I do worry that I don't come out of this draft with a QB that can start this year because I am required to have a starting QB and the hoarders are aware and blackball me for probably 2nd rounders for a scrub. In which I will need to draft a QB in 3rd or later as well as invest in a QB again next year as well. Hence the question about maybe taking earlier than needed but not having to worry about giving up future draft capital, if that makes sense...

But I really do appreciate every single response, I have since changed my tune to now thinking BPA and trading the 8th pick back to the 10th pick and gaining another 2nd next year. Pile on though, my draft is in 2 days and I am excited as hell. I am also now thinking maybe go Lamb at 3 over Dobbins if this is a true rebuild and take bpa at 7/8



Update to trading away Dhop/Eckler comments:
As far as trading for any more 1st rounders this year, not possible besides the trade back I have in motion mentioned above, I have exhausted all of those options.

I am now open to trading Eckler and Dhop during the season to a contender when needed if the price is right. Pre draft I did try and trade for Drew Lock from one of the QB hoarders but he is letting him ride his bench and gambling on his stock going up, he would not trade him