Difference between C. Godwin & A.J. Brown?

[kmbryant09]

I own Godwin but have been shopping him around in hopes of selling high. I'm a little concerned that people are over-hyping the Bucs offense this year now that Brady has arrived. It should lead to fewer negative game scripts, Brady doesn't push the ball down the field as much as Winston, and Brady will likely spread the ball out a bit more (plus Gronk stealing some red zone looks).

I also think A.J. Brown is a future star in this league and he's still a prime "buy-low" candidate right now at WR #2 prices.

So, what's the difference between the 2 players? What should I start off asking for and what should I ultimately accept?

Thanks!

[never_punts]

Godwin is being valued as a late 1st/ early 2nd start up pick. I think it'd be totally reasonable to ask for a 1st on top of AJB or ask for AJB+ an rb2, something like that

[Gator Sens]

I would need a 1st on top to even consider a deal to move Godwin for Brown.

[FantasyFoosball]

Godwin >> AJB for me

I personally would need more than a first, especially if competing.

[kmbryant09]

I appreciate the early responses, but are A.J. Brown owners really adding a 1st on top to get Godwin?

This is a player (Brown) who just put up 1,100 yards and 9 TDs as a 22-year-old rookie on just 55 touches (84 targets). He had 765 total yards and 6 TDs over the final 8 regular season games on just 50 targets.

I understand Godwin is already established, but is the difference really a 1st rounder (or in some cases, more than a 1st)? I feel like Godwin's 2019 season was a perfect storm - a QB that was bad enough to force negative game scripts, but competant enough to pile up stats in garbage time. Now they add Brady who at best is good enough to reduce negative game scripts and spread the ball around, and at worst a washed-up downgrade from Winston. Tampa Bay's targets in 2019 were so funnelled between Evans & Godwin, and now they add Gronk & Vaughn, who should be passing game upgrades over Howard & Barber.

Don't get me wrong, I love Godwin and went out of my way to acquire him last year. But getting Brown + something else for Godwin right now seems like a no-brainer sell-high buy-low (relatively low for Brown) - it would not surprise me in the least if Brown ends up having a better career.

What am I missing? Thanks guys.

[McCafsteez]

I would need about two AJBs for one Godwin. Reason being is we just need to see more from AJB to make sure he is the real deal. Sure he had a great rookie campaign, but there are many players out there that have been one in done. I do feel AJB will be solid for time to come, but he is most people's WR 3 - WR 4 on their respective team. Godwin is almost a sure fire thing and seems to be on his way to stud status for years to come. Just my opinion and preference though. It's crazy to think that these players' names carry a ton of value on its own too.

[mmass]

I appreciate the early responses, but are A.J. Brown owners really adding a 1st on top to get Godwin?

This is a player (Brown) who just put up 1,100 yards and 9 TDs as a 22-year-old rookie on just 55 touches (84 targets). He had 765 total yards and 6 TDs over the final 8 regular season games on just 50 targets.

I understand Godwin is already established, but is the difference really a 1st rounder (or in some cases, more than a 1st)? I feel like Godwin's 2019 season was a perfect storm - a QB that was bad enough to force negative game scripts, but competant enough to pile up stats in garbage time. Now they add Brady who at best is good enough to reduce negative game scripts and spread the ball around, and at worst a washed-up downgrade from Winston. Tampa Bay's targets in 2019 were so funnelled between Evans & Godwin, and now they add Gronk & Vaughn, who should be passing game upgrades over Howard & Barber.

Don't get me wrong, I love Godwin and went out of my way to acquire him last year. But getting Brown + something else for Godwin right now seems like a no-brainer sell-high buy-low (relatively low for Brown) - it would not surprise me in the least if Brown ends up having a better career.

What am I missing? Thanks guys.

Speaking of perfect storm please look up AJB numbers in the playoffs. That team is run 1st and Tannihill is a below average QB. Sure AJB will have great games but he will also have a lot of games where is doesn't get the looks do to game script. As for Godwin his value is prob safer than Evans at the moment because he will play more of the Edelman roll in the Tampa Offense as Evans is a more of the deep threat and could see less looks do to Toms arm not being what it used to be.

[jenkins.math]

I would need about two AJBs for one Godwin. Reason being is we just need to see more from AJB to make sure he is the real deal. Sure he had a great rookie campaign, but there are many players out there that have been one in done. I do feel AJB will be solid for time to come, but he is most people's WR 3 - WR 4 on their respective team. Godwin is almost a sure fire thing and seems to be on his way to stud status for years to come. Just my opinion and preference though. It's crazy to think that these players' names carry a ton of value on its own too.

I get wanting to see AJB do it again, but let's not act like Godwin has this long track record of success either.

I think Godwin should be valued higher than AJB, but I certainly don't think it's a first. I honestly think owners of each player view them fairly evenly and would see it as close to lateral.

[kmbryant09]

I appreciate the early responses, but are A.J. Brown owners really adding a 1st on top to get Godwin?

This is a player (Brown) who just put up 1,100 yards and 9 TDs as a 22-year-old rookie on just 55 touches (84 targets). He had 765 total yards and 6 TDs over the final 8 regular season games on just 50 targets.

I understand Godwin is already established, but is the difference really a 1st rounder (or in some cases, more than a 1st)? I feel like Godwin's 2019 season was a perfect storm - a QB that was bad enough to force negative game scripts, but competant enough to pile up stats in garbage time. Now they add Brady who at best is good enough to reduce negative game scripts and spread the ball around, and at worst a washed-up downgrade from Winston. Tampa Bay's targets in 2019 were so funnelled between Evans & Godwin, and now they add Gronk & Vaughn, who should be passing game upgrades over Howard & Barber.

Don't get me wrong, I love Godwin and went out of my way to acquire him last year. But getting Brown + something else for Godwin right now seems like a no-brainer sell-high buy-low (relatively low for Brown) - it would not surprise me in the least if Brown ends up having a better career.

What am I missing? Thanks guys.

Speaking of perfect storm please look up AJB numbers in the playoffs. That team is run 1st and Tannihill is a below average QB. Sure AJB will have great games but he will also have a lot of games where is doesn't get the looks do to game script. As for Godwin his value is prob safer than Evans at the moment because he will play more of the Edelman roll in the Tampa Offense as Evans is a more of the deep threat and could see less looks do to Toms arm not being what it used to be.

I hear ya, but I actually think Brown's situation is a candidate for regression / improvement / buy-low.

The guy had 84 targets last year. 84! That number could easily be 120 this season. Yes, the Titans would prefer to play a ball-control, beat-you-up style of football, but when's the last time we've seen any team in the NFL be able to carry that out over multiple seasons? Henry will get hurt, age, or leave the team (interesting that the team signed Tannehill long-term but only franchised Henry). Their defense will regress. Their O-Line already lost a major piece. Brown's situation can only get better from his rookie year - where he spent part of the season catching passes from Marcus Mariota, and spent the whole season as a 22-year-old rookie who didn't see more than 3 targets in a game until week 8 (!!!).

Would anyone really be surprised if Brown scores more points than Godwin next year? If so, I suggest you go back and watch Brown's 2019 film - dude is a rising star.

[FantasyFoosball]

I’d be shocked if AJB outscores Godwin. Barring an injury to Godwin, I think that’s pretty far fetched.

[McCafsteez]

I’d be shocked if AJB outscores Godwin. Barring an injury to Godwin, I think that’s pretty far fetched.

x2

[Straycatz2]

If you really think Brown is a stud and will get better, go for it and get as much as you can on top of brown for Godwin.

People who gambled on Godwin was well rewarded.
That said, I still like Godwin situation better.

[WhatWouldDitkaDo]

I'd say Godwin = Brown + late 1st

[FantasyFreak]

I have both and the difference is not much, to me. Not a first, that's for sure. Not a winning move IMO. If i could get a first and AJB for Godwin I'd make the move. I would not add anything significant to AJB to get Godwin. I was offered Godwin for AJB and Drake, and declined instantly.

[kmbryant09]

Thanks for all the feedback. After reaching out to the owner, he expressed some interest in upgrading from Brown to Godwin, but he would not add a 1st on top of Brown.

I offered him Godwin + Waller + 2021 3rd for Brown + Ridley + 2020 2nd

(TE is his only weakspot on a contending team and he previously expressed interest in acquiring him)

We'll see what he says!