Are 25 year old RBs are bad investments in startups??

[Nimrod]

A few weeks ago this site posted an article about when to sell your RBs. i will post the link below. Data from the last 5+ years has shown that the likelihood of a RB having an RB1 season over the age of 26 are slim, less than 20%. Also RBs that got their second contract were far less likely to maintain the production of their rookie deal for more than a year. The odds aren't ever in your favor!

So it makes we wonder, is it really the best decision to invest in a running back early in a startup that is close to that age? I think of all the startups going on these days and RBs that go in round 1 and 2. I did a startup last summer and RBs that went in round 1 and 2 that were close to 26 or 26 were many. Lev Bell, Gurley, Melvin Gordon, David Johnson to name a few. Id guess all those owners regret taking those players so early a year later as the majority of their fantasy production is likely behind them, not in front of them.

So I am curious where people are at on this years RBs quickly approaching that eerie number age 26?

RBs that will be 25 or 26 this season: Zeke, Fournette, Gurley, Derrick Henry, Dalvin Cook, Kamara

Are these type of RBs a poor round 1 or round 2 startup investment, considering the startup shapes your team for years to come? Is it time to sell now for the highest possible return?


I think the answer, is yes.


https://dynastyleaguefootball.com/2020 ... ing-backs/

[abloom]

I mean I personally say yes because I'd rather build a dynasty around WRs.

Planning to build a dynasty around older RBs is a bad idea, but building a win now team around them is a good idea.

[Paul717]

It seems that 26 is the new 30 for RBs. Would love to see some graphs with total rushing yards by age every year.

Out of your list there are only a couple there that I'd invest an early round pick in a startup. I agree they are generally risky.

I honestly think something was missed in the new CBA but I can't articulate it. RB seems like the riskiest position these days to ever see a second contract.

[FantasyFoosball]

Do I think taking a player like Zeke or Kamara or Cook in the 2nd round of a startup is a bad investment? No, lol. But if you do, you better be building your team to "win now". I think if you are taking older RB's early on in startups, and then take a bunch of rookies with the rest of your picks.... you're doing it wrong.

[Dynasty_Analyst]

Yes they are. Im in a start up right now that's in the 20th round superflex. I've taken 1 RB and that was devonta Freeman in the 19th I prefer to trade for my starters when the dust settles. The average RB also only starts a couple years, with a 20-30% turnover at the position each and every year people who draft Kenyan Drake, Chris Carson, Aaron Jones, Marlon Mack, Damian Williams, or Raheem mostert are likely to be dissapointed like James Connor drafters last season. Same thing if a RB has peaked it's value imo I move him for a WR. I've sold all my dalvin cook and fournette shares this off season. There value is high right now and can only go down. I think by transferring your assets to a strong WR core and pick and choosing your buy low RBs is the best way to consistently have a great team

[CurtisMyFavMartin]

Do I think taking a player like Zeke or Kamara or Cook in the 2nd round of a startup is a bad investment? No, lol. But if you do, you better be building your team to "win now". I think if you are taking older RB's early on in startups, and then take a bunch of rookies with the rest of your picks.... you're doing it wrong.

I don't see how that strategy is 'wrong'. If you can form a solid lineup with the likes of Henry/Bell and then draft guys like Dobbins or Akers and mixing it up, I think that's pretty sound.

Also to the OP, thanks for sharing this article...I'm definitely gonna start utilizing this strat.

[FantasyFoosball]

Do I think taking a player like Zeke or Kamara or Cook in the 2nd round of a startup is a bad investment? No, lol. But if you do, you better be building your team to "win now". I think if you are taking older RB's early on in startups, and then take a bunch of rookies with the rest of your picks.... you're doing it wrong.

I don't see how that strategy is 'wrong'. If you can form a solid lineup with the likes of Henry/Bell and then draft guys like Dobbins or Akers and mixing it up, I think that's pretty sound.

Also to the OP, thanks for sharing this article...I'm definitely gonna start utilizing this strat.

I'm not talking about just at the RB position. I'm talking about the whole roster. If you draft Henry/Bell, and then guys like McLaurin and Deebo and Fant and Akers... etc. Then you're doing it wrong.

[BigBawseRoss]

totally depends on the goals of the owner. if you wanna try to win right away and then rebuild if needed then getting those RBs can be a smart move. If you wanna try to draft RB and aim to compete in 3 years then the smart thing is load up on WR, TE, and QB and focus on getting RB later. top WR and TE have more longevity and stability usually as compared to RB.

WR is very deep though, and TE is pretty bland after the top couple guys, so I usually aim for those workhorse rb i think will have longevity early in drafts, but each draft is different.

[BigBawseRoss]

Do I think taking a player like Zeke or Kamara or Cook in the 2nd round of a startup is a bad investment? No, lol. But if you do, you better be building your team to "win now". I think if you are taking older RB's early on in startups, and then take a bunch of rookies with the rest of your picks.... you're doing it wrong.

I don't see how that strategy is 'wrong'. If you can form a solid lineup with the likes of Henry/Bell and then draft guys like Dobbins or Akers and mixing it up, I think that's pretty sound.

Also to the OP, thanks for sharing this article...I'm definitely gonna start utilizing this strat.

I'm not talking about just at the RB position. I'm talking about the whole roster. If you draft Henry/Bell, and then guys like McLaurin and Deebo and Fant and Akers... etc. Then you're doing it wrong.

y tho?

[pmart33]

I certainly wouldn't be turned off from drafting those players completely in a start up, but you need to know that if you take an RB who is 25-26 that they likely don't have a long shelf life going forward. They can, however, carry your team in the short term, and will carry value as a result. If you're in "win now mode" these players will be very valuable to you. If you fall out of contention, you can always sell the player to a contender and recoup value, as these types of players are always more valuable during the season.

The only scenario where they can really plummet in value right away is if they get hurt or significantly under perform for you in year 1.

[bigbuck22]

Yes they are. Im in a start up right now that's in the 20th round superflex. I've taken 1 RB and that was devonta Freeman in the 19th I prefer to trade for my starters when the dust settles. The average RB also only starts a couple years, with a 20-30% turnover at the position each and every year people who draft Kenyan Drake, Chris Carson, Aaron Jones, Marlon Mack, Damian Williams, or Raheem mostert are likely to be dissapointed like James Connor drafters last season. Same thing if a RB has peaked it's value imo I move him for a WR. I've sold all my dalvin cook and fournette shares this off season. There value is high right now and can only go down. I think by transferring your assets to a strong WR core and pick and choosing your buy low RBs is the best way to consistently have a great team

I tend to agree with this for the most part. RBs short shelf life is ther main reason. The only shift away from this is the elite RBs to which there might be 5. Even then, selling at the right time is important. I'm in that boat w Zeke right now. Idk if I should wait one more year or not as I'm built to contend for the next few yrs.

[Nimrod]

Do I think taking a player like Zeke or Kamara or Cook in the 2nd round of a startup is a bad investment? No, lol. But if you do, you better be building your team to "win now". I think if you are taking older RB's early on in startups, and then take a bunch of rookies with the rest of your picks.... you're doing it wrong.

Man I love this chatter and and debate! I personally think this very issue of how to value RBs in their 3rd-4th year in the league is one of the biggest questions each dynasty owner has to answer for themselves.

To your point, no, if Kamara, Cook, or Zeke we’re available at any point in round 2 of a 12 team startup, I would not call them a bad pick. If you love RBs and want to win now, take your guy, knowing they many only have 2-3 years left at the top of the RB landscape.

However I would ask this, how many startups or mocks have you seen where Kamara, Cook and Zeke slid into round 2 of a 12 team startup? I have seen 0.

They always go within the first 12 picks that I have seen.

If there was a world where I take Cooper/Godwin Tier, get Kamara in the 2nd and snake around to take someone in the Ridley or Sutton tier in the 3rd, I think that would be a fantastic 3 rounds. I just don’t see that happening.

[Gator Sens]

totally depends on the goals of the owner. if you wanna try to win right away and then rebuild if needed then getting those RBs can be a smart move. If you wanna try to draft RB and aim to compete in 3 years then the smart thing is load up on WR, TE, and QB and focus on getting RB later. top WR and TE have more longevity and stability usually as compared to RB.

WR is very deep though, and TE is pretty bland after the top couple guys, so I usually aim for those workhorse rb i think will have longevity early in drafts, but each draft is different.

Good thoughts here Ross. Even in a startup, depends on year 1 goals.

[boobam13]

I'd rather take the for sure thing for a year or 2 than invest in a guy who hasn't played a snap in the NFL - even if after this first or second year you can sell off a guy on name you got your wins from him and then sell him off for players or future picks - thats just me though

you can really capitalize on teams buying youth in a start up
teams should really be thinking in terms of 2 or 3 year windows at most

[makemeasandwich]

If you wait until after rounds 3-4 in a SF startup to draft RB's, you're relegated to very poor assets in the RB department(Drake, Carson, Ekeler, Connor types). If you get your RB's early, you can draft much better "older" WR assets such as Thielen, Woods, Parker, etc that have more staying power than late round RB's. The trick with RB's is to sell a year early than a year late.