AJ Brown for 1.07, '21 1st and H. renfrow

[stoneghost28]

Got this offer in an Apex League. Was curious what you all think as I couldn't find a good example other than in some trades on the trade finder page. (12 Team PPR, not superflex)

The relevant particulars. This was a dumpster fire team I took the tear down sheers to in the fall of '18, focusing on WR's/TE's early, adding some QB help in the '19 offseason while loading up on picks in trades, I ended up with 3 lottery picks in the first pick (they turned into 1.01, 1.02, and 1.06) to go with my 2.06 and 2.10 (My own pick ended up the worst, the two firsts I acquired ended up 1.01 and 1.02). I avoided RB because I wanted to tank and wait on using RB years until I could contend, so other than adding some speculative guys cheaply in trades/waiver wire (Edmonds, D. Henderson in the midseason, and Ito Smith and Bryce Love via waivers and the 3rd round of the rookie draft).

Current roster:
QB: K. Murray/Stafford/Minshew
RB: Henderson/Edmonds/Love/I. Smith/J. Jackson
WR: A. Cooper/DJ Moore/AJ Brown/C. Sutton/N. Harry/C. Samuel/C. Davis/S. Sims
TE: Goedert/I. Thomas/Njoku/J. Oliver/K. Warring

The guy offering the 1.07, the '21 1st, and renfrow finished 13-13 last year and should be better next year with a healthier Saquon. Has a good backfield and good WR's, looks more like a playoff team (16-22 wins maybe in the 32 game schedule), so I would assume the picks would most likely be 1.07 this year (already locked in) and a 1.09-1.12 next year. This is why I just feel like passing. I feel like AJ Brown for two firsts and some bench help is interesting, maybe even a take it offer (certainly based on completed trades in the trade finder) but what pushes me away is the fact that I suspect both picks will be low firsts (1.07 isn't low, but it is after 1-2 tier breaks in this rookie draft), and while I'd really consider trading AJ for a top 2 pick in this draft, or a top five pick and a pick next year, I'd be pretty aggravated if it ended up 1.07 and like, 1.10 next year. The Analyzer agrees giving the advantage to the future AJ Brown owner in the deal by around 30 or 40 points.

What do you guys think?

[Gator Sens]

You have a good young WR and TE core to build around and Brown helps that, I would hold AJ Brown here.

[krtbuckeye]

AJB pretty easily

[MyTeam]

AJB pretty easily

x2

[Mtt33]

I don’t see how it’s “easily” brown but I’d lean brown here as well. I think it’s close enough that if you can get a mid 2 kicked in this year I’d take the picks though.

[krtbuckeye]

I don’t see how it’s “easily” brown but I’d lean brown here as well. I think it’s close enough that if you can get a mid 2 kicked in this year I’d take the picks though.

If this were SF I could see it being closer, as 1.07 could be a top 5 non-QB, or a top 2-3 QB. The 1st next year is a nice add in, but Renfrow doesn’t do much here.

All in all, I think Brown’s potential, on top of what he has already shown himself to be capable of, far outweighs this package.

I would want the 2020 pick to be a top 4-5 to consider this deal in non SF.

[stoneghost28]

Thanks for your thoughts. I rejected it earlier in the day but kept the door open, and tried to figure out a way to build a potential trade, but like you guys, there simply isn't the pieces available. He has no other '20 picks beyond the 1.07, and his '21 picks are the first and a third, making the pick comp pretty weak regardless of what I might do. There are some players I could try to get thrown in but none really fit my needs, OJ Howard is probably the only one I'm interested in enough to consider tossing in but I don't need Howard, I already have plenty of speculative TE's that haven't become proven guys thus far. In the end It seems like a trade that can't be compensated due to the lack of assets appropriate for getting it done.

[DonBrazi]

Picks, easily. I'm not sure whether I'd prefer AJB or the 1.07.. but I'm 100% sure they're not separated by as much as a future 1st. If this isn't a classic sell-high opportunity, I don't know what is.

[stoneghost28]

Interesting. I just don't think the 1.07 is high enough, especially when I consider that his future first will likely be low. I don't see AJ Brown being that insanely efficient in the future though I think in time he'll slot in at a more straight forward, classic 75+-1150+7 type guy. Somewhere between a back end WR1 and a top end WR3.

My concern is that probably none of the WR's in this draft are WR1 prospects though a lot look like WR2 or WR3's if things break right, and all the RB's that I like will likely be gone by 1.07 at which point I'm picking over leftovers at the start of my tier 3, good but not great, and then next years 1st will be lower than this in a draft I don't like as much as this one. It's hard for me to not see this as a bird in the hand type situation, sell high to me would be if that first was top 3 or even top 5. 1.07 isn't top 3. It's bottom of tier 2 or top of 3.

I do think your first point is worth considering which is why I posted about it, rather than simply rejecting or accepting immediately, but my problem is, if it was higher, I'd agree, but it's right below a tier drop for me, and if my 4 RB's are gone and my top 2 WR's are gone, then I view the 1.07 is a substantial drop from my top 6 in value.