Does it make sense to trade for a top young QB in start 1?

This is the place for team advice - should I make this trade, should I draft that player, etc.
lilpuppy99
Role Player
Role Player
Posts: 341
Joined: Tue Feb 25, 2014 11:21 am

Does it make sense to trade for a top young QB in start 1?

Postby lilpuppy99 » Sun Jan 26, 2020 11:45 am

Talking about Team 1 in signature where I have Matt Ryan. Would you trade him plus a late 1st to get one of the younger studs?(Mahomes, Watson, Lamar, K Murray, etc) Ryan has been pretty consistent for me(QB #7 this year, QB #2 last year) and on a weekly basis has a nice floor with his passing yardage.

Am I overthinking this?? Do I take the younger player? Am I overvaluing the 1st(1.10)?? QBs seem to play forever nowadays, but this was the first year in awhile with the younger Qbs dominating the top 10(Only Wilson and Ryan were the 30+ Qbs in the top 10)

Side note..if I keep Ryan..was thinking of packaging Lockett +1.10 for a younger WR/player

Thanks guys
TEAM 1. 12 team PPR/1.5 TE PPR- 20 man roster, 3 IR
QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, TE, 2 RB/WR/TE, Def, K

QB: Matt Ryan
RB: Zeke Elliott, David Johnson, Alvin Kamara, Nick Chubb, Damien Harris, A Mattison, Darwin Thompson
WR: AJ Brown, C Godwin, T Lockett, J Washington, DJ Chark, Antonio Brown, B Perriman
TE: Zach Ertz, D Goedert, Will Dissly
K: Steven Gostkowski
D/ST: Rams Defense

2020 picks 1.10, 2.10, 4.10, 5.10, 6.10, 7. 10

TEAM 2

12 team PPR/1.5 TE PPR- 20 man roster, 3 IR
QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, TE, 2 RB/WR/TE, Def, K

QB: Baker Mayfield, Mitchell Trubisky
RB: Kareem Hunt, Derrick Henry, Kerryon Johnson, Adrian Peterson, C Hyde
WR: Mike Evans, DeAndre Hopkins, Allen Robinson, D Parker, AJ Brown, DJ Chark, J Ross, D Funchess
TE: Zach Ertz, Irv Smith Jr, Will Dissly
K: Stephen Gostkowski
D/ST: Broncos Defense

2020 picks 1.02, 2.01, 2.02, 3.02, 4.02, 5.02, 6.02, 7.02

User avatar
Gator Sens
GOAT
GOAT
Posts: 17932
Joined: Wed Jan 24, 2018 11:17 am

Re: Does it make sense to trade for a top young QB in start 1?

Postby Gator Sens » Sun Jan 26, 2020 12:57 pm

You have a good young team and a top tier QB could make your team even better for years to come. IF QB td's are worth 6 points in your league, even in a 1 QB, Ryan +1.10 for Mahomes is not a terrible price. It's an overpay, but locking up Mahomes could really help your team long term. You know your league best, who do you think will realistically be available with the 1.10 on draft day?
You're in this for Life
12 Team, PPR, 30 roster: 1 QB, 1 RB, 1 WR, 1 TE, 3 FLEX, 1 DST, 1 K
QB: Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen
RB: Alvin Kamara, Joe Mixon, Rodney Anderson
WR: Kenny Golladay, Chris Godwin, Calvin Ridley, Courtland Sutton, Dede Westbrook, Christian Kirk, Mike Williams, Mecole Hardman, Josh Reynolds, Equanimeous St. Brown
TE: O.J. Howard, David Njoku, Greg Olsen, Ian Thomas

Picks: 2020: 1.01, 1.03, 2.12, 3.11, 4.08, 5.08 2021: 1st, 3rd, 3rd, 4th, 5th

lilpuppy99
Role Player
Role Player
Posts: 341
Joined: Tue Feb 25, 2014 11:21 am

Re: Does it make sense to trade for a top young QB in start 1?

Postby lilpuppy99 » Sun Jan 26, 2020 1:35 pm

Thank you. It is 4 points per TD pass. I'm not even sure if I could get Mahomes for that price. The only one I know for sure is Watson. I broke down those young Qbs fantasy points vs Ryan over the last two seasons and here are the results...

Over 30 Fantasy Point Games

Mahomes 13, Watson 11, Lamar 9, Ryan 8, Kyler 2

Between 20 and 30 Fantasy Points

Ryan 14, Mahomes 13, Watson 11, Lamar 9, Kyler 6

Dud Games of 20 points or less

Watson 9, Ryan 9, Kyler 8, Mahomes 4, Lamar 4

So obviously those totals are a bit skewed as Kyler only has 16 starts and Lamar has 22...so breaking it down percentage wise would be this

30+ point games

Mahomes 43%, Lamar 41%, Watson 35%, Ryan 26%, Kyler 13%

20-30 point games


Ryan 45%, Mahomes 43%, Lamar 41%, Kyler 38%, Watson 35%

Under 20 point games

Kyler 50%, Ryan and Watson 29%, Lamar 18% and Mahomes 13%

Based on all that..Mahomes stands out the most which is why he costs the most....comparing Watson vs Ryan since I know I can get him for sure...seems like they both have the same weekly "bust" rate of 29%..with Ryan having a more consistent "above average" week while Watson has higher likelihood of a "Stud" week.

All that and still not sure what to do....
TEAM 1. 12 team PPR/1.5 TE PPR- 20 man roster, 3 IR
QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, TE, 2 RB/WR/TE, Def, K

QB: Matt Ryan
RB: Zeke Elliott, David Johnson, Alvin Kamara, Nick Chubb, Damien Harris, A Mattison, Darwin Thompson
WR: AJ Brown, C Godwin, T Lockett, J Washington, DJ Chark, Antonio Brown, B Perriman
TE: Zach Ertz, D Goedert, Will Dissly
K: Steven Gostkowski
D/ST: Rams Defense

2020 picks 1.10, 2.10, 4.10, 5.10, 6.10, 7. 10

TEAM 2

12 team PPR/1.5 TE PPR- 20 man roster, 3 IR
QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, TE, 2 RB/WR/TE, Def, K

QB: Baker Mayfield, Mitchell Trubisky
RB: Kareem Hunt, Derrick Henry, Kerryon Johnson, Adrian Peterson, C Hyde
WR: Mike Evans, DeAndre Hopkins, Allen Robinson, D Parker, AJ Brown, DJ Chark, J Ross, D Funchess
TE: Zach Ertz, Irv Smith Jr, Will Dissly
K: Stephen Gostkowski
D/ST: Broncos Defense

2020 picks 1.02, 2.01, 2.02, 3.02, 4.02, 5.02, 6.02, 7.02

Edgy68
MVP
MVP
Posts: 2563
Joined: Tue Jun 03, 2014 11:04 am
Location: Zanesville, OH

Re: Does it make sense to trade for a top young QB in start 1?

Postby Edgy68 » Sun Jan 26, 2020 1:37 pm

I think Ryan will perform well enough in that offense to last awhile longer. I like your idea of packaging to get a better WR, but there should be some decent players available at 1.10 anyway. Take BPA , or wait until on the clock and a deal may present itself.
Dynasty Wasteland
12-team, PPR 25 roster 1QB, 2RB, 2WR, 1TE, 1FLEX(RB/WR/TE), 1 D/ST
QB D. Brees, L. Jackson, D. Lock
RB S. Barkley, D. Henry, M. Sanders, L. McCoy, J. Hill, P. Laird, J. Samuels, A. Matt.
WR M. Evans, D. Adams, M. Thomas, C. Sutton, JJAW, J. Hurd, J. Reynolds, A. Lazard
TE T. Kelce, H. Henry, I. Thomas, C. Herndon
D/ST. GB, TEN, DAL
1.12, 3.05, 4.12, 5.12

Panthers Dynasty league
12-team SF, .5 PPR 35 roster: 1QB, 1SF, 2RB, 2WR, 1TE, 2FLEX, 2DB, 2LB, 2DL, 1FLEX
QB M. Stafford, C. Wentz, D. Brees, C. Kelly
RB J. Mixon, E. Elliott, J. Jacobs, N. Chubb, G. Bernard, J. Hill, B. Scott, R. Anderson, K. Dixon
WR D. Hopkins, K. Allen, Juju, K. Golladay, C. Godwin, A. Tate, D. Robinson, D. Williams, J. Reynolds, J. Gordon
TE Z. Ertz, H. Henry, D. Goedert, I. Thomas
DB J. Poyer, J. Johnson, J. Simmons
DL D. Hunter, D. Fowler, A. Armstead
LB C. Mosley, C. Littleton, KJ Wright, K. Alexander, T. Davis, T. Smith
1.01, 1.08

Tripwired
Starter
Starter
Posts: 577
Joined: Fri Apr 17, 2015 2:05 pm

Re: Does it make sense to trade for a top young QB in start 1?

Postby Tripwired » Sun Jan 26, 2020 2:20 pm

Generally speaking, if someone wants Patty or maybe Lamar they're going to have to overpay in most cases. If you had Mahomes and someone offered you Ryan and the 1.10 would that get it done for you? It wouldn't for me. Wouldn't even move the needle. So, you could throw it out there and see what happens, but I'd probably try to move Lockett before DK fully takes over. You've got a nice squad though. Especially for a 12 teamer.
10 team Dynasty league with 6pts for all TDs. 
QB, 2RB, 2WR, Flex (WRT), TE, K, & DST
League established: 2010
League champ: 2013, 2014, 2015(runner-up), 2016, 2017(runner-up), 2018
QB- Wentz, Danny Dimes, Tannehill- Got Lucked over by Andrew :thumbdown:
RB- Saquon, Kamara, Zeke, Chubb, Gurley
WR- OBJ, Amari, Sutton, Slayton, P. Williams
TE- Engram, Henry, Goedert, I. Smith, Gesicki, I. Thomas
DST - Pit
Picks 2020 - 1.04, 1.05, 1.07, 1.10, 2.01

10 team PPR Dynasty with 6pts for all TDs. 
QB, 2RB, 3WR, Flex (WRT), TE, K, & DST
League established: 2019
QB- Wilson, Stafford
RB- Kerryon, Miles Sanders, McCoy
WR- Hopkins, OBJ, DJ Moore, M. Williams, C. Davis, A. Miller, Diontae Johnson, Washington, Deebo, Hardman, JJAW, P. Williams
TE- Hockenson, Irv Smith, I. Thomas, Gesicki
Pit dst
Picks- 2020 1.01, 1.03, 1.05, 2.01, 2.03, 3.01

lilpuppy99
Role Player
Role Player
Posts: 341
Joined: Tue Feb 25, 2014 11:21 am

Re: Does it make sense to trade for a top young QB in start 1?

Postby lilpuppy99 » Sun Jan 26, 2020 2:24 pm

Tripwired wrote:
Sun Jan 26, 2020 2:20 pm
Generally speaking, if someone wants Patty or maybe Lamar they're going to have to overpay in most cases. If you had Mahomes and someone offered you Ryan and the 1.10 would that get it done for you? It wouldn't for me. Wouldn't even move the needle. So, you could throw it out there and see what happens, but I'd probably try to move Lockett before DK fully takes over. You've got a nice squad though. Especially for a 12 teamer.
Thanks. Yeah Mahomes would require trading Chubb, Kamara or Zeke and I'm not willing to do that.

Watson I can for sure get, just not sure if its worth the 1.10 short term with Ryan having at least 5 more seasons in my opinion.

I could maybe try to get Watson for a 2nd +Ryan + something and then try Lockett + 1.10 for a younger guy like Moore, Boyd, Ridely, etc etc. I think Lockett finished WR13 so just outside a WR1
TEAM 1. 12 team PPR/1.5 TE PPR- 20 man roster, 3 IR
QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, TE, 2 RB/WR/TE, Def, K

QB: Matt Ryan
RB: Zeke Elliott, David Johnson, Alvin Kamara, Nick Chubb, Damien Harris, A Mattison, Darwin Thompson
WR: AJ Brown, C Godwin, T Lockett, J Washington, DJ Chark, Antonio Brown, B Perriman
TE: Zach Ertz, D Goedert, Will Dissly
K: Steven Gostkowski
D/ST: Rams Defense

2020 picks 1.10, 2.10, 4.10, 5.10, 6.10, 7. 10

TEAM 2

12 team PPR/1.5 TE PPR- 20 man roster, 3 IR
QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, TE, 2 RB/WR/TE, Def, K

QB: Baker Mayfield, Mitchell Trubisky
RB: Kareem Hunt, Derrick Henry, Kerryon Johnson, Adrian Peterson, C Hyde
WR: Mike Evans, DeAndre Hopkins, Allen Robinson, D Parker, AJ Brown, DJ Chark, J Ross, D Funchess
TE: Zach Ertz, Irv Smith Jr, Will Dissly
K: Stephen Gostkowski
D/ST: Broncos Defense

2020 picks 1.02, 2.01, 2.02, 3.02, 4.02, 5.02, 6.02, 7.02

User avatar
FantasyFoosball
Ring of Fame
Ring of Fame
Posts: 3806
Joined: Wed May 02, 2018 10:23 am

Re: Does it make sense to trade for a top young QB in start 1?

Postby FantasyFoosball » Sun Jan 26, 2020 5:09 pm

No way do I trade Ryan and a 1st for another QB in a 1QB league. Keep the 1.10.
10 Team Dynasty Salary Cap League with 0.5 PPR and IDP - Est. 2018
2018 - Champions!
2019 - Champions!!
35-40 man rosters - $200 budget
Starting Positions:
1 QB
2 RB
2 WR
1 TE
1 WR/TE
1 K
9 IDP positions
2 DL
2 LB
2 DB
3 DL/LB/DB

Current Roster:
QB - Patrick Mahomes, Tom Brady
RB - Christian McCaffrey, Chris Carson, Derrius Guice, Raheem Mostert, Sony Michel, Rashaad Penny, Damien Harris
WR - DeAndre Hopkins, Michael Thomas, Chris Godwin, Robert Woods, JJ Arcega-Whiteside, Parris Campbell, Anthony Miller, John Ross
TE - George Kittle, Dallas Goedert, Mike Gesicki, Will Dissly, Dawson Knox
K - Matt Gay
DL - Joey Bosa, DeForest Buckner, Cameron Heyward, Robert Quinn
LB - Darius Leonard, Lavonte David, Dre Greenlaw, Matt Milano, Telvin Smith
DB - John Johnson III, Logan Ryan, Shawn Williams, Kevin Byard, Kevin King

2020 - 4.05
2021 - 1st, 2nd, 3rd
2022 - 1st, 2nd, 3rd


Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Bing [Bot], problemsolver and 6 guests