Dynasty newbie needs some help
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Dynasty newbie needs some help
Greetings,
Just joined a start up Dynasty PPR league. Large bench. QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, TE, RB/WR/TE, RB/WR/RE, K, DEF and 25 bench spots.
My question is how are draft picks in the start up draft (which includes rookies) valued? I have the 7th pick in a snake draft. I have the 2.06 pick. If I wanted to trade back to say the 2.12 pick or so, what type of draft pick trade should I expect?
I am completely new to dynasty, so I 1. Don't want to make an offer that is laughable and 2. Don't want to get ripped.
Any other guidance you have for a newbie would be appreciated.
cheers
Just joined a start up Dynasty PPR league. Large bench. QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, TE, RB/WR/TE, RB/WR/RE, K, DEF and 25 bench spots.
My question is how are draft picks in the start up draft (which includes rookies) valued? I have the 7th pick in a snake draft. I have the 2.06 pick. If I wanted to trade back to say the 2.12 pick or so, what type of draft pick trade should I expect?
I am completely new to dynasty, so I 1. Don't want to make an offer that is laughable and 2. Don't want to get ripped.
Any other guidance you have for a newbie would be appreciated.
cheers
12 team PPR league
Big Ben, Henne
Spiller, Sjax, R. Bush, J. Rodgers, D. Rich, Hillman, Hunter
Julio, Maclin, Decker, Cruz,
Gresham, Olsen
Big Ben, Henne
Spiller, Sjax, R. Bush, J. Rodgers, D. Rich, Hillman, Hunter
Julio, Maclin, Decker, Cruz,
Gresham, Olsen
Re: Dynasty newbie needs some help
Honestly, if you're new to dynasty, I would hold back on making trades during the 1st part of the draft. What you need to do is let other's make some trades 1st, and then use those to determine fair trade value. It varies from league to league as different owners tend to standardize on different trade values.
And I wouldn't trade your 2.6 pick until you're on the clock. The worst feeling ever is to trade a pick like that, and then see a player that you valued as the #13 player in the draft slip to 2.6 but you're not there to grab him. That happens more often than not, I've seen Roddy White slip like that.
By the time that it's your pick, if you wanna take a WR but see 5 WRs that are in your same tier, then start offering up the trade. You'll probably have 5 or so trades that happened ahead of you so that you can use them to establish fair value.
And I wouldn't trade your 2.6 pick until you're on the clock. The worst feeling ever is to trade a pick like that, and then see a player that you valued as the #13 player in the draft slip to 2.6 but you're not there to grab him. That happens more often than not, I've seen Roddy White slip like that.
By the time that it's your pick, if you wanna take a WR but see 5 WRs that are in your same tier, then start offering up the trade. You'll probably have 5 or so trades that happened ahead of you so that you can use them to establish fair value.
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- Role Player
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Re: Dynasty newbie needs some help
Thanks for the advice and I completely agree with the waiting until being OTC. Someone in the league was using the KFFL trade analyzer for draft picks..........any thoughts on that?
12 team PPR league
Big Ben, Henne
Spiller, Sjax, R. Bush, J. Rodgers, D. Rich, Hillman, Hunter
Julio, Maclin, Decker, Cruz,
Gresham, Olsen
Big Ben, Henne
Spiller, Sjax, R. Bush, J. Rodgers, D. Rich, Hillman, Hunter
Julio, Maclin, Decker, Cruz,
Gresham, Olsen
Re: Dynasty newbie needs some help
Nope. Stuff like that is overthinking it IMO.
There's a couple of formula's I use:
1) the 1, 2, 4 swap. In practice, it looks like this:
I give: 1.3, 2.10, 4.10.
I get: 1.11, 2.2, 4.2
So basically I get a premium in the 4th round for moving back, in addition to the upgraded pick in the 2nd round.
2) The get back twice as many positions as you give up technique.
So you move back in the 2nd round by 4 slots, you get back 8 slots in a later round.
I did that one recently, I moved up 4 slots in the 10th round to grab "my guy", Rashad Jennings, I gave the owner my 14th round pick for my 15th round pick. Win-win, his guy in the 10th round was definitely still there, and he got 8 spots later.
3) Move back 1 round, gain someone's 2012 1st round pick.
There's a couple of formula's I use:
1) the 1, 2, 4 swap. In practice, it looks like this:
I give: 1.3, 2.10, 4.10.
I get: 1.11, 2.2, 4.2
So basically I get a premium in the 4th round for moving back, in addition to the upgraded pick in the 2nd round.
2) The get back twice as many positions as you give up technique.
So you move back in the 2nd round by 4 slots, you get back 8 slots in a later round.
I did that one recently, I moved up 4 slots in the 10th round to grab "my guy", Rashad Jennings, I gave the owner my 14th round pick for my 15th round pick. Win-win, his guy in the 10th round was definitely still there, and he got 8 spots later.
3) Move back 1 round, gain someone's 2012 1st round pick.
Re: Dynasty newbie needs some help
There's several different trade analyzers available online and you'll find that they can vary significantly from one to the other. Also, they don't always translate well to dynasty leagues with deep drafts. Best advice as mentioned is to pay close attention to what others do in the league. However, if you're in a league with dynasty newbies and/or no one is trading then the online analyzers could be useful to check that you're in the right ballpark, however I would check out multiple ones and don't put too much stock in it.quietloudness wrote:Thanks for the advice and I completely agree with the waiting until being OTC. Someone in the league was using the KFFL trade analyzer for draft picks..........any thoughts on that?
Re: Dynasty newbie needs some help
First off, you need to take your cheatsheets, and draw tier lines across them. This is very important.
If you want to trade back, can you still get a same player in the same tier??
For example, at the end of the 4th round, you might be staring at Crabtree, Harvin, Santonio, and Steve Johnson. I honestly put them in my same "tier" so if I was on the clock at 4.10 let's say, I could safely trade back a few spots & grab 1 of them. So if the 5.2 guy offers me something because he wants to move up for "his" player, I might oblige.
If my pick was on the clock, and ONLY Steve Johnson remained from the WRs in that particular tier, then you don't trade back, you take him.
Now let's say you have the 4.10 pick, but it's at 4.6 right now and Steve Johnson is the last remaining player on YOUR draftboard from that tier, that's when you start looking to trade up for him.
I love the feeling of getting the last or 2nd to last player in my tier. In my last draft, I pulled that off numerous times. Of course everyone has a different draftboard than me, so although I took the last guys in my tier, they don't see it that way.
If you want to trade back, can you still get a same player in the same tier??
For example, at the end of the 4th round, you might be staring at Crabtree, Harvin, Santonio, and Steve Johnson. I honestly put them in my same "tier" so if I was on the clock at 4.10 let's say, I could safely trade back a few spots & grab 1 of them. So if the 5.2 guy offers me something because he wants to move up for "his" player, I might oblige.
If my pick was on the clock, and ONLY Steve Johnson remained from the WRs in that particular tier, then you don't trade back, you take him.
Now let's say you have the 4.10 pick, but it's at 4.6 right now and Steve Johnson is the last remaining player on YOUR draftboard from that tier, that's when you start looking to trade up for him.
I love the feeling of getting the last or 2nd to last player in my tier. In my last draft, I pulled that off numerous times. Of course everyone has a different draftboard than me, so although I took the last guys in my tier, they don't see it that way.
Last edited by jordanzs on Tue Jul 19, 2011 12:20 am, edited 2 times in total.
Re: Dynasty newbie needs some help
Jordanz, that is all great advice for a "Newby" to follow in a startup dynasty draft.
My take on trades in a startup is... I don't like to do them. It seems whenever i make a trade in a startup, I always seem to miss out on all the trends (runs on any position) and I end up with lower tiered players than I would like. When that happens... you kind of panic and make more trades that might be more detrimental to you roster. I always have the feeling I am behind, and that's not a good feeling to have in a startup...especially if you are new to dynasty and are drafting with seasoned pros.
My take on trades in a startup is... I don't like to do them. It seems whenever i make a trade in a startup, I always seem to miss out on all the trends (runs on any position) and I end up with lower tiered players than I would like. When that happens... you kind of panic and make more trades that might be more detrimental to you roster. I always have the feeling I am behind, and that's not a good feeling to have in a startup...especially if you are new to dynasty and are drafting with seasoned pros.
You may have been born and bred in old Kentucky, but you're just a crumb up here! TM 3 Stooges
Re: Dynasty newbie needs some help
Oh yeah, the 7th pick is a great one for a dynasty newbie. You don't have to post those "should I take AP or CJ2K" threads that we always see. You get to sit back & let the other owners do that dirty work for you.
I would immediately throw the top 6 RBs (AP, CJ2K, Foster, Charles, LeSean, Rice) and Calvin into your draft list. You are 100% guaranteed to get 1 of those players!
The "safest" draft strategy IMO is the RB, WR, WR start. That's like the pawn to king 4 opening in chess. But I would be aware and mindful of falling RB value in the 2nd and/or 3rd, and be prepared to alter your draft strategy if needed. However, if you open up strong on RBs, then you gotta be great with the WR talent scouting in the later rounds. If you open up strong on WRs but choke your RBs, that's easier to unravel next year as you can draft RBs who will produce much sooner, and RB value fluctuates a lot more from year to year than WRs.
I had a recent draft where I opened strong on RBs (3 of my 1st 5 picks were runningbacks) but I went on a WR collecting spree later on, and nailed some BPAs through the middle rounds that people wanted & needed, so I got some trades that helped booster my WR stable even more. I feeling good about that team's potential.
I would immediately throw the top 6 RBs (AP, CJ2K, Foster, Charles, LeSean, Rice) and Calvin into your draft list. You are 100% guaranteed to get 1 of those players!
The "safest" draft strategy IMO is the RB, WR, WR start. That's like the pawn to king 4 opening in chess. But I would be aware and mindful of falling RB value in the 2nd and/or 3rd, and be prepared to alter your draft strategy if needed. However, if you open up strong on RBs, then you gotta be great with the WR talent scouting in the later rounds. If you open up strong on WRs but choke your RBs, that's easier to unravel next year as you can draft RBs who will produce much sooner, and RB value fluctuates a lot more from year to year than WRs.
I had a recent draft where I opened strong on RBs (3 of my 1st 5 picks were runningbacks) but I went on a WR collecting spree later on, and nailed some BPAs through the middle rounds that people wanted & needed, so I got some trades that helped booster my WR stable even more. I feeling good about that team's potential.
Re: Dynasty newbie needs some help
Also, the draft is all about "value".
There was PERFECT thread a few days ago to illustrate.
Someone already had their QB1, and their 10th round pick was coming up that they wanted to take a backup QB with their 10th round pick, and wanted to know who was the best backup QB.
They had a list of guys like Cutler, Sanchez, Tebow, Orton, Fitzpatrick, McNabb, and all the rookies.
Of course on the poll, the runaway answer is Cutler.
My answer was "In a vacuum, I prefer Cutler, but I'd much rather take Fitzpatrick in the 17th round than Cutler in the 10th".
Moral of the story. Be aware of how to maximize your value. You'll see cases where your 30th ranked WR goes in the 6th round, but you can get your 32nd ranked WR in the 8th round. If you know that's the case, I'd rather wait 2 rounds & grab my 32nd ranked WR, and I'll take a RB who's closing out the last of a certain tier. This is especially true with QBs for your starting QB, your backup QB, and your prospect QBs.
There was PERFECT thread a few days ago to illustrate.
Someone already had their QB1, and their 10th round pick was coming up that they wanted to take a backup QB with their 10th round pick, and wanted to know who was the best backup QB.
They had a list of guys like Cutler, Sanchez, Tebow, Orton, Fitzpatrick, McNabb, and all the rookies.
Of course on the poll, the runaway answer is Cutler.
My answer was "In a vacuum, I prefer Cutler, but I'd much rather take Fitzpatrick in the 17th round than Cutler in the 10th".
Moral of the story. Be aware of how to maximize your value. You'll see cases where your 30th ranked WR goes in the 6th round, but you can get your 32nd ranked WR in the 8th round. If you know that's the case, I'd rather wait 2 rounds & grab my 32nd ranked WR, and I'll take a RB who's closing out the last of a certain tier. This is especially true with QBs for your starting QB, your backup QB, and your prospect QBs.
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Re: Dynasty newbie needs some help
Guys thanks for the tips. We just finished the first round and thanks to some odd drafting to start, ADP fell to me at 7.
Round 1:Calvin, Arian, Jamaal, CJ2, LeSean, Ray Rice, ADP (ME), Andre, Hakeem, Roddy, Fitz, McFadden is how the first round went.
I'm thinking since this is a PPR, if Forte/Gore/MJD are available at my pick I may go RB/RB. If not, then best WR available. There is a trade talk going on for one pick ahead of me, hoping it goes through so I can see how it looks.
Thanks again for the tips
Oh and I did have the 8 spot offer me his 15th round pick to switch spots......he wanted ADP. I thought the value of getting ADP at 7 was to much to even think about trading at that point.
Round 1:Calvin, Arian, Jamaal, CJ2, LeSean, Ray Rice, ADP (ME), Andre, Hakeem, Roddy, Fitz, McFadden is how the first round went.
I'm thinking since this is a PPR, if Forte/Gore/MJD are available at my pick I may go RB/RB. If not, then best WR available. There is a trade talk going on for one pick ahead of me, hoping it goes through so I can see how it looks.
Thanks again for the tips
Oh and I did have the 8 spot offer me his 15th round pick to switch spots......he wanted ADP. I thought the value of getting ADP at 7 was to much to even think about trading at that point.
Last edited by quietloudness on Tue Jul 19, 2011 4:14 am, edited 1 time in total.
12 team PPR league
Big Ben, Henne
Spiller, Sjax, R. Bush, J. Rodgers, D. Rich, Hillman, Hunter
Julio, Maclin, Decker, Cruz,
Gresham, Olsen
Big Ben, Henne
Spiller, Sjax, R. Bush, J. Rodgers, D. Rich, Hillman, Hunter
Julio, Maclin, Decker, Cruz,
Gresham, Olsen
Re: Dynasty newbie needs some help
You made the right pick and the right decision not to trade ADP. I'm sure that's the lowest I've ever seen him go. Very nice for you. There is still a ton of value at RB to take. I'd have Mendy as my best available, then the guys you mention. Plus J. Stew needs to fit in the mix somewhere. With five WRs going in the first round, it's likely that there will be a very solid RB at 2.06 for you.quietloudness wrote:Guys thanks for the tips. We just finished the first round and thanks to some odd drafting to start, ADP fell to me at 7.
Round 1:Calvin, Arian, Jamaal, CJ2, LeSean, Ray Rice, ADP (ME), Andre, Hakeem, Roddy, Fitz, McFadden is how the first round went.
I'm thinking since this is a PPR, if Forte/Gore/MJD are available at my pick I may go RB/RB. If not, then best WR available. There is a trade talk going on for one pick ahead of me, hoping it goes through so I can see how it looks.
Thanks again for the tips
Oh and I did have the 8 spot offer me his 15th round pick to switch spots......he wanted ADP. I thought the value of getting ADP at 7 was to much to even think about trading at that point.
Some other considerations:
- WR: With all of those guys off the board already, the draft is now into my "tier-two" of top WRs. Given you have the option to only start 2WR, I think I'd probably lean toward a RB at 2.06
- QB: If Rodgers is there at 2.06 and this league gives 6-TD/passing TD he is very tempting. I hate taking a QB early but the value would be amazing.
At any rate, you are already ahead of the game thanks to the ADP selection.
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Re: Dynasty newbie needs some help
Rodgers and Mendy were the first two picks of the second round this morning. I figured Mendy would be gone by my pick and had a hunch Rodgers would go. I'm always tempted to go QB early, but I think RB is going to be a very valuable commodity in this league if I am looking at things right.tstafford wrote:You made the right pick and the right decision not to trade ADP. I'm sure that's the lowest I've ever seen him go. Very nice for you. There is still a ton of value at RB to take. I'd have Mendy as my best available, then the guys you mention. Plus J. Stew needs to fit in the mix somewhere. With five WRs going in the first round, it's likely that there will be a very solid RB at 2.06 for you.quietloudness wrote:Guys thanks for the tips. We just finished the first round and thanks to some odd drafting to start, ADP fell to me at 7.
Round 1:Calvin, Arian, Jamaal, CJ2, LeSean, Ray Rice, ADP (ME), Andre, Hakeem, Roddy, Fitz, McFadden is how the first round went.
I'm thinking since this is a PPR, if Forte/Gore/MJD are available at my pick I may go RB/RB. If not, then best WR available. There is a trade talk going on for one pick ahead of me, hoping it goes through so I can see how it looks.
Thanks again for the tips
Oh and I did have the 8 spot offer me his 15th round pick to switch spots......he wanted ADP. I thought the value of getting ADP at 7 was to much to even think about trading at that point.
Some other considerations:
- WR: With all of those guys off the board already, the draft is now into my "tier-two" of top WRs. Given you have the option to only start 2WR, I think I'd probably lean toward a RB at 2.06
- QB: If Rodgers is there at 2.06 and this league gives 6-TD/passing TD he is very tempting. I hate taking a QB early but the value would be amazing.
At any rate, you are already ahead of the game thanks to the ADP selection.
12 team PPR league
Big Ben, Henne
Spiller, Sjax, R. Bush, J. Rodgers, D. Rich, Hillman, Hunter
Julio, Maclin, Decker, Cruz,
Gresham, Olsen
Big Ben, Henne
Spiller, Sjax, R. Bush, J. Rodgers, D. Rich, Hillman, Hunter
Julio, Maclin, Decker, Cruz,
Gresham, Olsen
Re: Dynasty newbie needs some help
Actually, looking at your roster positions......YES......RBs are gonna be very valuable.
That's because you can start 4RBs/2WRs in your lineup.
There's a lot less serviceable RBs than there are WRs.
Good call to scoop them if they're the BPA.
I wouldn't want to be the guy to take Gore in the 2nd round though (even though I'm a niners fan). His days are limited. Solid 3rd round value pick though.
Forte, JStew, Ingram, they're worthy of being taken in the 2nd. I tend to be higher on Ingram than most & recently took him at 2.11. Those other 2 RBs mentioned were already gone though, but I would dare to say that I'd take Ingram ahead of JStew. To each their own though.
It wouldn't even be a bad play (in this particular league) to grab a RB in the 3rd round (Matthews type of guy if they're still there). You would really force a run between your 3rd & 4th pick, which would boomerang some good WRs back your way.
And my disclaimer is that in a normal 2RB/3WR/1TE 1 flex league, I make sure I have a WR by the 3rd, but if you can start 4RBs & only 2WRs, they gain in value.
That's because you can start 4RBs/2WRs in your lineup.
There's a lot less serviceable RBs than there are WRs.
Good call to scoop them if they're the BPA.
I wouldn't want to be the guy to take Gore in the 2nd round though (even though I'm a niners fan). His days are limited. Solid 3rd round value pick though.
Forte, JStew, Ingram, they're worthy of being taken in the 2nd. I tend to be higher on Ingram than most & recently took him at 2.11. Those other 2 RBs mentioned were already gone though, but I would dare to say that I'd take Ingram ahead of JStew. To each their own though.
It wouldn't even be a bad play (in this particular league) to grab a RB in the 3rd round (Matthews type of guy if they're still there). You would really force a run between your 3rd & 4th pick, which would boomerang some good WRs back your way.
And my disclaimer is that in a normal 2RB/3WR/1TE 1 flex league, I make sure I have a WR by the 3rd, but if you can start 4RBs & only 2WRs, they gain in value.
Re: Dynasty newbie needs some help
He can start 2-4 RB and 2-4 WRs... Value and balance. Your next pick is all about value and flow of the draft and your forecast of who will be there at your next selection(s). Your next pick should be WR or RB and value should be the biggest factor along with how you want to build your team.jordanzs wrote:Actually, looking at your roster positions......YES......RBs are gonna be very valuable.
That's because you can start 4RBs/2WRs in your lineup.
There's a lot less serviceable RBs than there are WRs.
Good call to scoop them if they're the BPA.
I wouldn't want to be the guy to take Gore in the 2nd round though (even though I'm a niners fan). His days are limited. Solid 3rd round value pick though.
Forte, JStew, Ingram, they're worthy of being taken in the 2nd. I tend to be higher on Ingram than most & recently took him at 2.11. Those other 2 RBs mentioned were already gone though, but I would dare to say that I'd take Ingram ahead of JStew. To each their own though.
It wouldn't even be a bad play (in this particular league) to grab a RB in the 3rd round (Matthews type of guy if they're still there). You would really force a run between your 3rd & 4th pick, which would boomerang some good WRs back your way.
And my disclaimer is that in a normal 2RB/3WR/1TE 1 flex league, I make sure I have a WR by the 3rd, but if you can start 4RBs & only 2WRs, they gain in value.
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