Derrick Henry vs 2020 1st (poll)

[PhillySpecial]

Any thoughts on me trading away a 2020 1st (likely pick 5-7) for Henry?

[stockerj]

i recently did this same exact trade, just a little later on the picks selection. I received Henry and feel like it should pay off almost instantly. Feel as though that's buying Henry a little low, and would take it.

[Goddard]

I'd only pay that if I thought Henry put me over the top to win it all. Otherwise, I'd rather have the pick.

[Gator Sens]

I'd only pay that if I thought Henry put me over the top to win it all. Otherwise, I'd rather have the pick.

x2

[Slackalacker]

I'd only pay that if I thought Henry put me over the top to win it all. Otherwise, I'd rather have the pick.

x2

x3. I’d pay a very late 1st as a contender, mid 1st only if he’s your last piece to a championship.

[sloth8u]

Makes sense. Hard to say if henry is preferred come the draft, but for right now....id easily pay a mid 1st if i needed rb.

[lukkynumber13]

I'd only pay that if I thought Henry put me over the top to win it all. Otherwise, I'd rather have the pick.

This, except I honestly don’t think I would pay it unless it was MY pick and I was pretty certain it will be 1.10-1.12.

[Hollywood]

Go back and look at the last 3 years drafts and tell what percentage of picks outside of the top 3 you would rather have than Henry.

Yes, there are exceptions like Kamara and Chubb but way more players like Penny, R. Freeman, Perine, J. Ross.

[lukkynumber13]

Go back and look at the last 3 years drafts and tell what percentage of picks outside of the top 3 you would rather have than Henry.

Yes, there are exceptions like Kamara and Chubb but way more players like Penny, R. Freeman, Perine, J. Ross.

Just off the top of my head, without researching it at all?

2017: Golladay, Juju, Mahomes, Engram, CMC, Kamara, Mixon, D. Cook, Fournette (just by a hair), D. Watson, Kupp, possibly Mike Williams, Kittle, Marlon Mack, James Conner (this one is close)

2018: Saquon, Chubb, M. Andrews, Goedert, Lamar Jackson, Sutton, DJ Moore, C. Ridley

2019: Hollywood, Metcalf, Hockenson, Jacobs, Kyler

[Hollywood]

Go back and look at the last 3 years drafts and tell what percentage of picks outside of the top 3 you would rather have than Henry.

Yes, there are exceptions like Kamara and Chubb but way more players like Penny, R. Freeman, Perine, J. Ross.

Just off the top of my head, without researching it at all?

2017: Golladay, Juju, Mahomes, Engram, CMC, Kamara, Mixon, D. Cook, Fournette (just by a hair), D. Watson, Kupp, possibly Mike Williams, Kittle, Marlon Mack, James Conner (this one is close)

2018: Saquon, Chubb, M. Andrews, Goedert, Lamar Jackson, Sutton, DJ Moore, C. Ridley

2019: Hollywood, Metcalf, Hockenson, Jacobs, Kyler

Derrick Henry is currently 15 on Fantasy Pros ROS list.
From the your list CMC, Mixon, Cook, Saquon were all top 5 picks so for this scenario wouldn't be there.
80% of the other players you mention are below Henry currently.

I know this is Dynasty and you have to play longer term but you are going to tell me to trade a 25yo RB on a run first team currently ranked 15 over other players that you HOPE are going to get better? The odds of those guys getting higher than top 20 is slim.

[lukkynumber13]

Which guys do you not agree with me ranking above Henry? Some are certainly arguable - Ridley, Mike Williams, Mack, etc

Oh btw, forgot to put Chark in that list. I would absolutely take him over DH.

[Hollywood]

Which guys do you not agree with me ranking above Henry? Some are certainly arguable - Ridley, Mike Williams, Mack, etc

Oh btw, forgot to put Chark in that list. I would absolutely take him over DH.

I am not arguing that there aren't better players than Henry but statistically speaking you will come out worse with a draft pick than you will Henry.

To put some numbers to it, if you look at all of the players drafted in the top 12 over the past 3 years their average ranking in FantasyPros Dynasty rank is rank #60. Derrick Henry is ranked #41.

If you take out the top 5 players each year and look at just the players picked 5 - 10, which is the range the OP was asking about, their average dynasty rank of someone picked between 5 - 10 falls to rank #77. (The number surprisingly is the same if I took out the "weak" 2019 draft class).

To look at another way, of the 36 players drafted in the 1st round over the past 3 years, only 10 of them are currently ranked higher than Henry. Of those drafted 5-12 only 2 of them are higher than Henry.

So a manager has a 28% chance that a draft pick will be better than Henry and a 72% they will be worse if you count all draft picks. You only have a 10% chance if you count those outside of the top 5.

It does not make sense mathematically to trade for a pick.

(I know FantasyPros is not the end-all-be-all source but it is easy "neutral" source for numbers).

[Hollywood]

Rookie draft class for the past 3 years pulled from 3 different sites (with their current dynasty value next to them):

2017 FF Pros Dyansy Rank 2018 2019
Corey Davis 63 Barkley 2 Josh Jacobs 27
Leonard Fournette 19 Guice 68 Mile Sanders 43
Christian McCaffrey 1 Penny 85 David Montgomery 37
Joe Mixon 18 Ridley 47 Metcalf 62
Dalvin Cook 7 DJ Moore 35 AJ Brown 73
Mike Willams 52 Sony Michel 51 M. Brown 76
Kareem Hunt 97 Courland Sutton 45 Harry 61
John Ross 161 Christian Kirk 60 Murray 82
OJ Howard 86 Ronald Jones 116 Singletary 75
David Njoku 96 Nick Chubb 11 TJ Hoceknson 81
Evan Engram 56 Royce Freeman 90 Henderson 103
Alvin Kamara 6 Anthony Miller 117 McLaurin 64
55 61 65


From ESPN, 2017 #11 was Sam Perine, I swapped him out for Engram last minute so that will change the numbers ever slightly as Engram has a ranking of 56.

[PhillySpecial]

Thanks for all of the work in this post. I created the original post and appreciate all of the analytics. The trade still has not yet been completed but has been in discussions. The current trade is:

I send: 2020 1st (likely pick 5-7)/Gallup/Darnold
I receive: Henry/Wentz/2020 3rd (likely pick 1-2)

I currently own Cooper and Gallup and would prefer to keep Gallup as the Dallas WR situation could be different in 2020. Gallup could be the WR1 and Cooper could be playing outside of Dallas. But I currently own Cooper, Godwin, Golladay, AJ Brown and McLaurin so WR depth is not an issue. I own Fournette, Montgomery and Miles Sanders and adding Henry could push me to a contender. I am currently middle of the pack in the league but the third highest scoring team. I can either stay status quo and not win or make this deal that wouldn`t hurt me long term. I don`t think it would hurt me long term as Henry is only 25 and I still own a 2020 2nd and three 2020 3rds. I also prefer Wentz as my backup over Darnold long term. This is a 1 QB league for reference.

[JohnnyBoyRoss]

What do you all think Henry is worth at this point? I’m trying to trade him, but not sure what to expect.