Is now the time to sell Godwin?

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vbbish
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Is now the time to sell Godwin?

Postby vbbish » Thu Oct 17, 2019 10:22 am

Trying to gauge if his production is sustainable.

Is he the number 1 WR in football or is now the time to sell high on the hype?
8th Year Full Dynasty PPR (1 pt. per Rec.) 1QB,2RB,2WR,1TE,1TE/RB/WR 12 team league
QB: C. Newton, L. Jackson, Brees
RB: Mixon, M. Gordon, R. Penny, Ingram, T. Cohen, D. Montgomery
WR: Hopkins, AJG, Godwin, Alshon, Shephard, Nkeal Harry (TS)
TE: Ertz, E. Engram,
DEF: BEARS

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Re: Is now the time to sell Godwin?

Postby jpusmc0311 » Thu Oct 17, 2019 10:24 am

I think he's a legit WR 1 and he's only 23... He's a guy you'd build your WR corps around, imho
TEAM 1: 10 TEAM 1 ppr
QBs - Wentz, Carr, Haskins, Lock
RBs - Zeke, Jacobs, L. Bell, D Williams, J. Howard, P. Barber, Ollison, D Harris
WRs - OBJ, Golladay, Hilton, Lockett, Jeffery, C. Davis, Pettis, John Ross, Arcega-Whiteside, Funchess, Parker, Cobb, Harmon, Riley Ridley
TE - Kelce, Rudolph, Ian Thomas

TEAM 2: 10 TEAM 2 QB 1 ppr. 0.2 ppc
QBs - Cousins, Darnold, , Rudolph, Tannehill, Foles
RBs - Barkley, T. Coleman, Mack, David Johnson, Damien Williams, Love, Bernard
WRs - Hopkins, DJ Moore, Kirk, D. Samuel, C. Davis, Moncrief, Benjamin, Gabriel, E. St Brown, Keelan Cole, Hurd, Inman, Wallace
TEs- Hooper, Waller, Njoku, Herndon

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Re: Is now the time to sell Godwin?

Postby abloom » Thu Oct 17, 2019 10:38 am

I don't think there is a wrong answer right now.

If you want to sell him, sell him. I don't see his value getting that much higher than it is. If you want to keep him to keep his WR1 production, keep it. Its really going to depend on the rest of your roster.

The worst thing that I can see happening to him is if Winston leave TB after the year, and TB doesn't replace him with a competent QB.
Team #1 (9-4) rank: 2/12 (in Finals)
12 team, 1 ppr (1.5 te), 1qb, 2rb, 2wr, 1te, 2flex, 1DST, 1K

QB: Rivers, Tannehill, Haskins
RB: CMC, Fournette, Samuels, Guice, Scarbrough, Peterson, Armstead, Bonnafon, R Anderson, McKinnon
WR: Nuk, Evans, Edelman, C Samuel
TE: Witten, Goedert
DST: NE, BAL
K: Zurlein

2020 picks: rounds 1,4,4,5,5,7
------------
Team #2 (9-4) rank: 3/12 (in Finals)
12 team, 1ppr (1.5 te), 1qb, 2rb, 2wr, 1te, 1superflex, 1flex, 1DST, 1K

QB: Wilson, Murray, Darnold, Cousins, Tannehill
RB: Gurley, S Michel, D. Freeman, Breida, AP, J Hill, B Hill
WR: Nuk, Allen, Godwin, Sutton
TE: Felles, Fant, Warring
K: Boswell
DST: PIT

2020 picks: 1, 1, 2, 3, 3, 4, 5, 7
------------
2019 Redraft (10-3) rank 1/10 (In Semifinals)
10 team, 0.5ppr, 1qb, 1 rb, 2wr, 1 te, 2 flex, 1DST, 1K

QB: Brees
RB: CMC, Kamara, Gurley, Breida
WR: K Allen, Green, Golladay, Boyd, Parker
TE: Henry, Hooper
K: Lutz
DST: BAL

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Re: Is now the time to sell Godwin?

Postby M-Dub » Thu Oct 17, 2019 10:58 am

There’s a lot to unpack from just these two sentences. Haha.

1. Is his production sustainable?
He’s currently on pace for 115/1,765/16. If he hit those numbers exactly, that would amount to the 17th most receptions, 6th most yards and 14th most receiving TDs by a player in NFL history. So a stat line like that is not unprecedented, but it would rank among the best seasons by all-time greats like Rice, Moss, Calvin, etc.

2. Is he the #1 WR in football?
In terms of production, he absolutely is right now. Will he continue to be over the next several years? Who knows? There are several WRs for whom you could make a reasonable argument as THE WR1 (Nuk, Thomas, Adams, JuJu, OBJ) and I don’t think it’s crazy whatsoever to think Godwin has joined that group.

3. Is now the time to sell high on the hype?
Well just to be clear, it’s not hype. It’s actual real-world production. Whether or not now is the time to sell is entirely dependent on your own answers to the above two questions, as well as what you can actually get for him. There are a lot of people who don’t think he’s entered that elite tier yet. Hell, there are even some people who want to wait five years before even declaring him the best WR on the Bucs. I’m of the opinion that no player is untradable, given the right return. But unless someone is giving you #1 overall WR value for him, I’d be inclined to just hold. But if you believe that you can make your team better now and/or in the future by trading him away, then by all means do so.
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12-team PPR dynasty, 17-player roster, 4-player taxi
8 starters: 1 QB, 1-4 RB/WR/TE

QB: Wilson
RB: McCaffrey, Mixon, Lindsay, Guice, J. Hill, Scarbrough, Miller (IR)
WR: Godwin, Golladay, Keenan, Woods, Sammy, Tre’Quan
TE: Ertz, Rudolph
Taxi: Irv Smith, Dexter, Gaskin

Put The Coke On My Dak
Same settings as above except 18-player rosters

QB: Dak, Baker
RB: CMC, DJ, Sanders, Barber, Edwards, Gallman
WR: Julio, ARob, Kirk, Lockett, Campbell, Tate
TE: Kelce, Goedert, Howard, Jonnu
Taxi: Gaskin, Isabella

The Guiceman Cometh
20-player rosters, $420 cap, 60 contract years, same starting requirements

QB: Foles $1/1, Minshew $1/1
RB: Gurley $71/2, Gordon $62/2, Dam. Williams $36/1, Guice $24/4, Henderson $14/3, Hill $4/5, Jon Williams $1/1, Gaskin $1/1
WR: Godwin $50/4, Hilton $43/2, Hollywood $9/3, Hamilton $2/5, Conley $1/1, Pascal $1/1, Gage $1/1
TE: Njoku $28/1, Howard $20/4, Griffin $1/1

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Re: Is now the time to sell Godwin?

Postby Gator Sens » Thu Oct 17, 2019 11:08 am

I think he is a legit WR1 based on age and production. I don't think he will keep up his current pace, but I think he is a top 10 WR.
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12 Team, PPR, 30 roster: 1 QB, 1 RB, 1 WR, 1 TE, 3 FLEX, 1 DST, 1 K
QB: Patrick Mahomes, Drew Brees, Josh Allen
RB: Alvin Kamara, Dalvin Cook, Nick Chubb, Leonard Fournette, Joe Mixon, Derrius Guice, Alexander Mattison, Ryquell Armstead, Rodney Anderson
WR: Kenny Golladay, Chris Godwin, Calvin Ridley, Courtland Sutton, Dede Westbrook, Michael Gallup, Christian Kirk, Mike Williams, Josh Reynolds, Equanimeous St. Brown
TE: Mark Andrews, O.J. Howard, David Njoku, Greg Olsen, Ian Thomas

Picks: 2020: 4th, 5th 2021: 3rd, 3rd, 3rd, 4th, 5th

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Re: Is now the time to sell Godwin?

Postby vbbish » Thu Oct 17, 2019 11:17 am

M-Dub wrote:
Thu Oct 17, 2019 10:58 am
There’s a lot to unpack from just these two sentences. Haha.

1. Is his production sustainable?
He’s currently on pace for 115/1,765/16. If he hit those numbers exactly, that would amount to the 17th most receptions, 6th most yards and 14th most receiving TDs by a player in NFL history. So a stat line like that is not unprecedented, but it would rank among the best seasons by all-time greats like Rice, Moss, Calvin, etc.

2. Is he the #1 WR in football?
In terms of production, he absolutely is right now. Will he continue to be over the next several years? Who knows? There are several WRs for whom you could make a reasonable argument as THE WR1 (Nuk, Thomas, Adams, JuJu, OBJ) and I don’t think it’s crazy whatsoever to think Godwin has joined that group.

3. Is now the time to sell high on the hype?
Well just to be clear, it’s not hype. It’s actual real-world production. Whether or not now is the time to sell is entirely dependent on your own answers to the above two questions, as well as what you can actually get for him. There are a lot of people who don’t think he’s entered that elite tier yet. Hell, there are even some people who want to wait five years before even declaring him the best WR on the Bucs. I’m of the opinion that no player is untradable, given the right return. But unless someone is giving you #1 overall WR value for him, I’d be inclined to just hold. But if you believe that you can make your team better now and/or in the future by trading him away, then by all means do so.
Thanks for the great responses guys. Gonna float some offers and see what bites i get
8th Year Full Dynasty PPR (1 pt. per Rec.) 1QB,2RB,2WR,1TE,1TE/RB/WR 12 team league
QB: C. Newton, L. Jackson, Brees
RB: Mixon, M. Gordon, R. Penny, Ingram, T. Cohen, D. Montgomery
WR: Hopkins, AJG, Godwin, Alshon, Shephard, Nkeal Harry (TS)
TE: Ertz, E. Engram,
DEF: BEARS

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Re: Is now the time to sell Godwin?

Postby Goddard » Thu Oct 17, 2019 11:32 am

I don't think you're going to get the overall WR1 value for him if that's what you're asking. If you do, I'd sell. If not, keep him as a WR1 for years to come.

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Re: Is now the time to sell Godwin?

Postby abloom » Thu Oct 17, 2019 11:37 am

Goddard wrote:
Thu Oct 17, 2019 11:32 am
I don't think you're going to get the overall WR1 value for him if that's what you're asking. If you do, I'd sell. If not, keep him as a WR1 for years to come.
I think if you are getting WR 1-2 value you sell sell sell (provided he is not a lynchpin for you contending for your championship, like he is for me in my team #2 in sig). If you are getting WR 3-6 value, it probably depends on the actual deal and anything lower I'd probably hold.

Overall thoughts:
This is Godwin's third year. Evans is going to be working the outside for the forseeable future. Bruce Arians likes to use the slot receiver. Slot receivers tend to get the CB2/3. Even if Winston does not stay next year, the TB offense is too potent through the air to NOT have a QB that can throw the ball around.

Could Godwin lose some value? yes, of course he can. But I think he will finish off this season as a top 10 WR (barring injury) and that for at least the next couple years he'll have great potential.
Team #1 (9-4) rank: 2/12 (in Finals)
12 team, 1 ppr (1.5 te), 1qb, 2rb, 2wr, 1te, 2flex, 1DST, 1K

QB: Rivers, Tannehill, Haskins
RB: CMC, Fournette, Samuels, Guice, Scarbrough, Peterson, Armstead, Bonnafon, R Anderson, McKinnon
WR: Nuk, Evans, Edelman, C Samuel
TE: Witten, Goedert
DST: NE, BAL
K: Zurlein

2020 picks: rounds 1,4,4,5,5,7
------------
Team #2 (9-4) rank: 3/12 (in Finals)
12 team, 1ppr (1.5 te), 1qb, 2rb, 2wr, 1te, 1superflex, 1flex, 1DST, 1K

QB: Wilson, Murray, Darnold, Cousins, Tannehill
RB: Gurley, S Michel, D. Freeman, Breida, AP, J Hill, B Hill
WR: Nuk, Allen, Godwin, Sutton
TE: Felles, Fant, Warring
K: Boswell
DST: PIT

2020 picks: 1, 1, 2, 3, 3, 4, 5, 7
------------
2019 Redraft (10-3) rank 1/10 (In Semifinals)
10 team, 0.5ppr, 1qb, 1 rb, 2wr, 1 te, 2 flex, 1DST, 1K

QB: Brees
RB: CMC, Kamara, Gurley, Breida
WR: K Allen, Green, Golladay, Boyd, Parker
TE: Henry, Hooper
K: Lutz
DST: BAL

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Re: Is now the time to sell Godwin?

Postby diamonddave » Thu Oct 17, 2019 1:09 pm

i think godwin's the real deal, a surefire wr1 for several years. i'd go and try to grab him if you want him.
12-team, Non-PPR, IDP--2QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, 1 W/R/T, 2D, 1LB, 1DL, 1DB

QB: Patrick Mahomes, Kyler Murray, Jimmy Garopolo
RB: Derrick Henry, Aaron Jones, Derrius Guice, Gus Edwards, Kerryon Johnson (IR)
WR: Cooper Kupp, Julian Edelman, Allen Robinson, Calvin Ridley, Christian Kirk, Will Fuller, Dede Westbrook, James Washington, N'Keal Harry, JJ Arcega-Whiteside, Andy Isabella
TE: Darren Waller, TJ Hockensen, Gerald Everett
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