Evans for Moore+

[abloom]

Consistency only matters if all your other positions are consistent. If they aren't consistency doesn't matter since every player will have up and down games. Evans right now is still a WR1. He is comparable to both Julio and keenan at the moment and likely ahead of Julio in long term value given age difference.

Not sure I agree with that. Consistent 15+ points is always valuable. A contending team should be able to win most games without a 40+ point outing from a player, so I think it's more likely that a 0 or a 4 from Evans loses you a game than a 45 wins you a game (in the sense that you would have still won if Evans had 20 points). Put another way: I'd probably be better off having three 15s than 45, 0, 4. Yeah that 45 might lock me down 1 win but I'm vulnerable to 2 losses. My goal is to win as many games as possible not to occasionally win by 30.

you have to include the fact that Evans is not your only player on your roster. If everyone on the roster is boom/bust, then on average you will perform just like if all players were completely consistent.

[BelichekYourSelf]

Not sure I agree with that. Consistent 15+ points is always valuable. A contending team should be able to win most games without a 40+ point outing from a player, so I think it's more likely that a 0 or a 4 from Evans loses you a game than a 45 wins you a game (in the sense that you would have still won if Evans had 20 points). Put another way: I'd probably be better off having three 15s than 45, 0, 4. Yeah that 45 might lock me down 1 win but I'm vulnerable to 2 losses. My goal is to win as many games as possible not to occasionally win by 30.

If you want to talk about low single digit outings lets look at Moore.

10 single digit games in 22 career games. With 4 more being in the 10-12 range. So he has scored 13 or more points 8 times in 22 games. The guy has scored 3 TDs in 22 games. Mike Evans has scored 3 TDs in a single game multiple times.

Mike Evans first 22 games of career 108-1713-13
DJ Moore first 22 games of career 88-1213-3

Mike Evans was better as a rookie, is better now and will continue to be better than DJ Moore for the foreseeable future. Especially if Evans ever gets a good QB, something he has never had. It is not like Evans is getting 5 targets a game since Godwin has broken out. Evans is still averaging over 9 targets a game. Winston just sucks.

Yes the 2020 class looks special. Yes there are a ton of potentially great players coming out. But valuing those picks so highly already is crazy. Some people will get the STUDs, others will get the busts. Even the 2014 class had several busts, hell Sammy Watkins was the 1.01. You don't know if you're going to end up with the Sammy Watkins, the Evans, the OBJ or the Cody Latimer of the 2020 1st round. Or you could end up with the Adams and use him as a minor throw in in a deal in 2016 and then watch him finally break out on someone else's team. Give me the known STUD over potential every time.

[Goddard]

Based on history and his stats throughout his career, the 0 definitely is an outlier. I'm not going to check, but I'm pretty certain Evans has had more games where he's scored 40+ points than he has 0...feel free to prove me wrong if that's not the case, but that's just pure speculation on my end.

As for ADP, I agree that there are a few players that I would take Moore over who are ahead of him, but I'd also take Golladay, Kupp, Diggs, Kittle, Engram ahead of him who are currently ranked after him. And I'd make a case for guys like Thielen, Ridley, Jones, Lockett, Hilton, Boyd, Mack, Kirk, Sanders, Sutton. Not all those players would go ahead of him, but I think they're all probably in that similar range and some would depend on team makeup.

We can keep going back and forth on this, but obviously neither one of us is going to change their mind...

Actually...the 45 is still an outlier (as is the 39.9 he had his rookie season) if you look at his whole career and the 0 is not. It's not that uncommon for him to post low single digit outings.

You're either really low on DJ Moore or really high on Boyd, Kirk, Hilton, Jones, and Sanders if you think an argument can be made for those players over DJ Moore.

You can't call one an outlier and not the other just because one fits your narrative and the other doesn't. Just doesn't work that way. Either they both are or neither are. I get it, you love Moore and think he's going to be a stud...and maybe that'll be true some day. But for now, Evans should still be treated as a WR1 and Moore is far behind him in value.

As for the guys I said an argument can be made to take over him...I'd definitely rather have Hilton if I'm competing. I'd rather have Aaron Jones if I need a RB instead of a WR and I'm competing. And guys like Boyd, Kirk, and Sanders (Miles, not to be confused with Manny)...I'm not sure what Moore has done to be worth so much more than them? They're all kinda in that same range for me and wouldn't blame anyone for ranking them however they wanted to.

[hoos89]

you have to include the fact that Evans is not your only player on your roster. If everyone on the roster is boom/bust, then on average you will perform just like if all players were completely consistent.

No you won't? Whether players boom/bust is generally not linked other than for players on the same team. Sure if all your players are boom/bust then you'll probably have decent points on average, but you'll have a high ceiling and a low floor: sometimes most of your players will boom and sometimes they'll bust. Consistency is still valuable and increase's your team's floor.

If you want to talk about low single digit outings lets look at Moore.

10 single digit games in 22 career games. With 4 more being in the 10-12 range. So he has scored 13 or more points 8 times in 22 games. The guy has scored 3 TDs in 22 games. Mike Evans has scored 3 TDs in a single game multiple times.

Mike Evans first 22 games of career 108-1713-13
DJ Moore first 22 games of career 88-1213-3

Mike Evans was better as a rookie, is better now and will continue to be better than DJ Moore for the foreseeable future. Especially if Evans ever gets a good QB, something he has never had. It is not like Evans is getting 5 targets a game since Godwin has broken out. Evans is still averaging over 9 targets a game. Winston just sucks.

Yes the 2020 class looks special. Yes there are a ton of potentially great players coming out. But valuing those picks so highly already is crazy. Some people will get the STUDs, others will get the busts. Even the 2014 class had several busts, hell Sammy Watkins was the 1.01. You don't know if you're going to end up with the Sammy Watkins, the Evans, the OBJ or the Cody Latimer of the 2020 1st round. Or you could end up with the Adams and use him as a minor throw in in a deal in 2016 and then watch him finally break out on someone else's team. Give me the known STUD over potential every time.

DJ Moore is a 22 year old 2nd year player. You're buying (or holding) him for future upside not for current, consistent production. That said...he has been far more consistent this season than Evans in spite of a shaky situation. He's also probably not going to go from the team's WR1 to not starting (as was the case for a substantial portion of last season), so I don't think it's particularly fair to knock his consistency due to last season.

Also if you're going to do that comparison, you should at least do yards from scrimmage: DJ Moore gets rushing yards and Evans doesn't. DJ Moore's had 1,410 yards from scrimmage. And that's in spite of hardly playing the first few games of his career, not starting for half his rookie season, and attempting to catch lame ducks from an injured Cam Newton for half the time he did start last season.

DJ Moore is also on pace for a better 2nd season than Evans with Kyle Allen under center. Now I'm not saying I would take DJ Moore over Evans, but I am saying that in a rebuild I'm not sure I'd be comfortable adding a 2020 1st to a player who has shown as much upside at such a young age with such inconsistent QB play as DJ Moore in order to get a player as inconsistent and with as questionable usage looking forward as Mike Evans.

[abloom]

you have to include the fact that Evans is not your only player on your roster. If everyone on the roster is boom/bust, then on average you will perform just like if all players were completely consistent.

No you won't? Whether players boom/bust is generally not linked other than for players on the same team. Sure if all your players are boom/bust then you'll probably have decent points on average, but you'll have a high ceiling and a low floor: sometimes most of your players will boom and sometimes they'll bust. Consistency is still valuable and increase's your team's floor.

Consistency lowers your ceiling

[hoos89]

you have to include the fact that Evans is not your only player on your roster. If everyone on the roster is boom/bust, then on average you will perform just like if all players were completely consistent.

No you won't? Whether players boom/bust is generally not linked other than for players on the same team. Sure if all your players are boom/bust then you'll probably have decent points on average, but you'll have a high ceiling and a low floor: sometimes most of your players will boom and sometimes they'll bust. Consistency is still valuable and increase's your team's floor.

Consistency lowers your ceiling

I only need to beat my opponent by 1. A team that's all boom/bust will have a ceiling that will blow the doors off every opponent nearly 100% of the time.

[Goddard]

OP, did you end up making that trade?

[ArrylT]

Thanks for sharing Goddard.

[ArrylT]

Heck an early 1st could easily be worth more than Evans on its own come April.

I mean, sure. I guess, ok...


anything is possible.

Actually and while it may seem odd for me to say so, while I think the likelyhood is low at best - I can project that possibility if one of the 2020 RBs is able to stand out from the rest in Feb/March similar to Barkley and the 2018 class or Zeke & the 2016 class. Do I think Evans is and should still be worth more than an early 2020 1st? Absolutely! Do I see a scenario where someone (as in rogue owners not consensus) covets a 2020 RB because they see the next Barkley - and thus values them above everyone (including Barkley himself) - like you said anything is possible.

Still funny though

[ArrylT]

DJ Moore is a 22 year old 2nd year player. You're buying (or holding) him for future upside not for current, consistent production. That said...he has been far more consistent this season than Evans in spite of a shaky situation. He's also probably not going to go from the team's WR1 to not starting (as was the case for a substantial portion of last season), so I don't think it's particularly fair to knock his consistency due to last season.

Also if you're going to do that comparison, you should at least do yards from scrimmage: DJ Moore gets rushing yards and Evans doesn't. DJ Moore's had 1,410 yards from scrimmage. And that's in spite of hardly playing the first few games of his career, not starting for half his rookie season, and attempting to catch lame ducks from an injured Cam Newton for half the time he did start last season.

DJ Moore is also on pace for a better 2nd season than Evans with Kyle Allen under center. Now I'm not saying I would take DJ Moore over Evans, but I am saying that in a rebuild I'm not sure I'd be comfortable adding a 2020 1st to a player who has shown as much upside at such a young age with such inconsistent QB play as DJ Moore in order to get a player as inconsistent and with as questionable usage looking forward as Mike Evans.

While I disagree with this perspective, I completely respect & understand it and appreciate your stating it quite logically.

[Kmani6]

He’s hiding now....

[hoos89]

He’s hiding now....

Hm?

Actually and while it may seem odd for me to say so, while I think the likelyhood is low at best - I can project that possibility if one of the 2020 RBs is able to stand out from the rest in Feb/March similar to Barkley and the 2018 class or Zeke & the 2016 class. Do I think Evans is and should still be worth more than an early 2020 1st? Absolutely! Do I see a scenario where someone (as in rogue owners not consensus) covets a 2020 RB because they see the next Barkley - and thus values them above everyone (including Barkley himself) - like you said anything is possible.

Still funny though

I stand by this. A top RB going to the Chiefs is all it would take for the consensus value of 1.01 to be higher than Evans. Seriously...Swift or Taylor on the Chiefs would probably be a top 10 startup pick. If Evans continues his inconsistent production (59% of points in 3 games), then I could see another 1 or 2 rookies slipping above him in ADP given strong combines and draft capital and the correct situation. I am not saying that an early first is currently worth more than Evans, just that there are realistic scenarios where an early 1st has a higher ADP than Evans come April/May.

[Adam_172]

Love me some Moore but remember Evans gets 1000 yards every year without fail. Criminally under-rated.

[Adam_172]

Are you guys crazy?

Mike Evans as the now apparent '#2' option for TB has put up the following numbers this season:

SEASON TEAM GAMES REC TGT YDS Y/R LG TD
2019 TB 11 62 105 1,043 16.8 67 7

Over 1,000 yards (for the 6th consecutive season), 105 targets and 7 TD's...all with 5 games of the season remaining.

I'm sure any of you would take a WR with (estimated numbers) of 1,500 yards, 150 targets and 10 TD's.

All of this WITH Chris Godwin's massive breakout year.

If you guys don't consider this guy a solid WR1 in fantasy football you have lost your mind.

[hoos89]

I would argue that it is DJ Moore who is criminally underrated. Evans is a top 10 dynasty WR; I don't think anybody is disputing that (in spite of knocking him earlier in the thread, I do still believe that he is top 10...I just don't see him as a tier 1 WR with MT, Nuk and co.). But DJ Moore is putting up damn near 2018 JuJu numbers at about the same age (current pace: 99 receptions, 1,347 yards from scrimmage, 5 TDs)...and he's doing it as his team's WR1 and with Kyle Allen under center.

I'm actually not certain which player I'd rather roll out in the playoffs this season...I'd probably want Evans if I was an underdog (hoping for a couple boom weeks) and DJ Moore if I was a favorite (as he's been far more consistent all season, and particularly the last several weeks).

It's kind of crazy to me that anyone is arguing in favor of sending DJ Moore + 2020 1st for Mike Evans at this point. Usually young WRs with this kind of production are valued much higher. DJ Moore should probably be considered a top 10 dynasty WR: he had nearly 1,000 yards from scrimmage as a 21 year old rookie and is currently on pace for almost 1,350 at 22. That is an elite start to a career. Pass catchers with at least 2,300 yards from scrimmage in their first two seasons (since 1980): Randy Moss, OBJ, Joey Galloway, Josh Gordon, AJG, Torry Holt, DJax, Jerry Rice, JuJu, Michael Thomas. Pass catchers who had at least 2,000 yards from scrimmage prior to turning 23: Randy Moss, Amari Cooper, Mike Evans, Larry Fitzgerald, Josh Gordon, DeAndre Hopkins, JuJu, Watkins. DJ Moore is at 1,970 with 4 games to go.