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Josh Jacobs vs 2020 draft class

Posted: Mon Oct 14, 2019 8:15 am
by hailtoyourvictor
What do you think Josh Jacob's rookie ADP would be in the 2020 draft class?

Re: Josh Jacobs vs 2020 draft class

Posted: Mon Oct 14, 2019 8:16 am
by Gator Sens
Mid - late 1st

Re: Josh Jacobs vs 2020 draft class

Posted: Mon Oct 14, 2019 8:45 am
by bjd5211
Too early to say for sure, but I would roughly value him as 1.04 in the class currently. I would strongly consider moving him for Jeudy or Taylor, and I would be on the fence about moving him for Swift. I currently would not trade him for anyone else in the class though.

Re: Josh Jacobs vs 2020 draft class

Posted: Mon Oct 14, 2019 8:50 am
by Peepyopee
There is really no way to know this until the Draft. If I recall, Gruden was pretty clear when they drafted him they considered him a work horse and were going to ride him.
Totally depends on who it is and where they land.

Re: Josh Jacobs vs 2020 draft class

Posted: Mon Oct 14, 2019 8:51 am
by Mjvb5
Top 4 most likely

Re: Josh Jacobs vs 2020 draft class

Posted: Mon Oct 14, 2019 10:59 am
by hoos89
Gator Sens wrote:
Mon Oct 14, 2019 8:16 am
Mid - late 1st
While that may be fair if we are talking about Josh Jacobs the prospect, I think Josh Jacobs the NFL rookie has done enough through 5 games to demand a higher ADP than that (he's averaging ~100 scrimmage yards and 0.8 TDs through 5 games with 4.9 YPC to boot).

I get that next year's class is expected to be special (and I've been buying where I can), but I have a hard time imagining that Jacobs would fall below that many players in any one rookie class without some significant regression RoS.

I think Josh Jacobs should be considered a a top 10 dynasty RB as of today (I could see the argument as high as 7, a tier below Cook and Chubb), and I'd be surprised to see more than 2 or 3 2020 prospects going that high, as rookies typically only go that high if they're (a) a transcendent, generational talent (Barkley) or (b) an elite talent drafted into a great situation (Zeke).

Re: Josh Jacobs vs 2020 draft class

Posted: Mon Oct 14, 2019 12:20 pm
by notweswelker
The only thing I don't like about Jacobs is that he hasn't been too involved in the passing game.
Gruden looks committed though, I'd probably value him ~1.3/1.4

Re: Josh Jacobs vs 2020 draft class

Posted: Mon Oct 14, 2019 12:43 pm
by lukkynumber13
Top 5

Re: Josh Jacobs vs 2020 draft class

Posted: Mon Oct 14, 2019 12:49 pm
by Gator Sens
hoos89 wrote:
Mon Oct 14, 2019 10:59 am
Gator Sens wrote:
Mon Oct 14, 2019 8:16 am
Mid - late 1st
While that may be fair if we are talking about Josh Jacobs the prospect, I think Josh Jacobs the NFL rookie has done enough through 5 games to demand a higher ADP than that (he's averaging ~100 scrimmage yards and 0.8 TDs through 5 games with 4.9 YPC to boot).

I get that next year's class is expected to be special (and I've been buying where I can), but I have a hard time imagining that Jacobs would fall below that many players in any one rookie class without some significant regression RoS.

I think Josh Jacobs should be considered a a top 10 dynasty RB as of today (I could see the argument as high as 7, a tier below Cook and Chubb), and I'd be surprised to see more than 2 or 3 2020 prospects going that high, as rookies typically only go that high if they're (a) a transcendent, generational talent (Barkley) or (b) an elite talent drafted into a great situation (Zeke).
Agreed, I was valuing Jacobs solely as a prospect as if he were coming in. Where we are today, no doubt early.

Re: Josh Jacobs vs 2020 draft class

Posted: Mon Oct 14, 2019 1:15 pm
by jonesmaster
Gator Sens wrote:
Mon Oct 14, 2019 12:49 pm
hoos89 wrote:
Mon Oct 14, 2019 10:59 am
Gator Sens wrote:
Mon Oct 14, 2019 8:16 am
Mid - late 1st
While that may be fair if we are talking about Josh Jacobs the prospect, I think Josh Jacobs the NFL rookie has done enough through 5 games to demand a higher ADP than that (he's averaging ~100 scrimmage yards and 0.8 TDs through 5 games with 4.9 YPC to boot).

I get that next year's class is expected to be special (and I've been buying where I can), but I have a hard time imagining that Jacobs would fall below that many players in any one rookie class without some significant regression RoS.

I think Josh Jacobs should be considered a a top 10 dynasty RB as of today (I could see the argument as high as 7, a tier below Cook and Chubb), and I'd be surprised to see more than 2 or 3 2020 prospects going that high, as rookies typically only go that high if they're (a) a transcendent, generational talent (Barkley) or (b) an elite talent drafted into a great situation (Zeke).
Agreed, I was valuing Jacobs solely as a prospect as if he were coming in. Where we are today, no doubt early.
I don't agree with changing the valuation. You see it year after year; People would have said that trading AB for the first overall in Barkley's year was a dumb decision. Then look what happened 5 games into that same year, instantly ranked above AB. When the talent is as good as this year I see no reason to balk at 1.05 for Jacobs getting declined -- I would decline it. Point being, i totally agree with the mid-late 1st value

Re: Josh Jacobs vs 2020 draft class

Posted: Mon Oct 14, 2019 1:24 pm
by Straycatz2
Situation makes Jacob 1.4 or higher.

Everyone can say swift or Taylor or etc are great backs but can easily be put in bad situations like Penny and R. Freeman. Washington could draft a top rb and guice turns out what he should be. Etc.

Re: Josh Jacobs vs 2020 draft class

Posted: Mon Oct 14, 2019 1:29 pm
by BigBawseRoss
hes worth a top 5 pick, these dudes are not guaranteed healthy successful careers in the NFL, known commodity almost always has superior value

Re: Josh Jacobs vs 2020 draft class

Posted: Mon Oct 14, 2019 1:31 pm
by Weknownothing86
jonesmaster wrote:
Mon Oct 14, 2019 1:15 pm
Gator Sens wrote:
Mon Oct 14, 2019 12:49 pm
hoos89 wrote:
Mon Oct 14, 2019 10:59 am


While that may be fair if we are talking about Josh Jacobs the prospect, I think Josh Jacobs the NFL rookie has done enough through 5 games to demand a higher ADP than that (he's averaging ~100 scrimmage yards and 0.8 TDs through 5 games with 4.9 YPC to boot).

I get that next year's class is expected to be special (and I've been buying where I can), but I have a hard time imagining that Jacobs would fall below that many players in any one rookie class without some significant regression RoS.

I think Josh Jacobs should be considered a a top 10 dynasty RB as of today (I could see the argument as high as 7, a tier below Cook and Chubb), and I'd be surprised to see more than 2 or 3 2020 prospects going that high, as rookies typically only go that high if they're (a) a transcendent, generational talent (Barkley) or (b) an elite talent drafted into a great situation (Zeke).
Agreed, I was valuing Jacobs solely as a prospect as if he were coming in. Where we are today, no doubt early.
I don't agree with changing the valuation. You see it year after year; People would have said that trading AB for the first overall in Barkley's year was a dumb decision. Then look what happened 5 games into that same year, instantly ranked above AB. When the talent is as good as this year I see no reason to balk at 1.05 for Jacobs getting declined -- I would decline it. Point being, i totally agree with the mid-late 1st value
I actually dont think people would have said that, or it would have been 50/50. Barkley was a generational talent, everyone knew this and saw this, AB was near the beginning of losing value in this community. As good as 2020 is hyped to be im not hearing anything about anyone being like Barkley, so i dont think this is a good comparison. Taylor is the only one who i would maybe take over Jacobs and even then id have a tough time doing it because Jacobs has been so good, in both fantasy and more importantly in real life.

Re: Josh Jacobs vs 2020 draft class

Posted: Mon Oct 14, 2019 1:41 pm
by Vcize
Weknownothing86 wrote:
Mon Oct 14, 2019 1:31 pm
jonesmaster wrote:
Mon Oct 14, 2019 1:15 pm
Gator Sens wrote:
Mon Oct 14, 2019 12:49 pm


Agreed, I was valuing Jacobs solely as a prospect as if he were coming in. Where we are today, no doubt early.
I don't agree with changing the valuation. You see it year after year; People would have said that trading AB for the first overall in Barkley's year was a dumb decision. Then look what happened 5 games into that same year, instantly ranked above AB. When the talent is as good as this year I see no reason to balk at 1.05 for Jacobs getting declined -- I would decline it. Point being, i totally agree with the mid-late 1st value
I actually dont think people would have said that, or it would have been 50/50. Barkley was a generational talent, everyone knew this and saw this, AB was near the beginning of losing value in this community. As good as 2020 is hyped to be im not hearing anything about anyone being like Barkley, so i dont think this is a good comparison. Taylor is the only one who i would maybe take over Jacobs and even then id have a tough time doing it because Jacobs has been so good, in both fantasy and more importantly in real life.
Bingo.

The strength of the 2020 class at RB is that there are a lot of really good prospects. It's not that there are any single really generational prospects like Barkley or Gurley or Peterson. There aren't any RBs that are going to be drafted in the top 5 or top 10 of the NFL draft, and we probably won't see one off the board until at least the 20's.

I think it is kind of similar to the 2018 class minus Saquon. There were a bunch of really good prospects that people wanted to get their hands on like Guice, Chubb, Penny, Sony, Kerryon, but outside of an ideal landing spot they weren't the kind of guys that you're drafting in the late 1st/early 2nd of a startup before they take their first snap, which is probably around where Jacobs would go right now.

Re: Josh Jacobs vs 2020 draft class

Posted: Mon Oct 14, 2019 1:48 pm
by notweswelker
jonesmaster wrote:
Mon Oct 14, 2019 1:15 pm

I don't agree with changing the valuation. You see it year after year; People would have said that trading AB for the first overall in Barkley's year was a dumb decision. Then look what happened 5 games into that same year, instantly ranked above AB. When the talent is as good as this year I see no reason to balk at 1.05 for Jacobs getting declined -- I would decline it. Point being, i totally agree with the mid-late 1st value
I'm not sure who those people are you are referencing, but Barkley was one of the highest sought after prospects in dynasty history.
The hype around his value was like nothing we have ever, or will ever see for a long time. AB as good as he was, was 29 at the time. I had one of the 1.01's and I wouldn't have been anywhere near tempted for a straight swap.