Josh Jacobs vs 2020 draft class

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bjd5211
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Re: Josh Jacobs vs 2020 draft class

Postby bjd5211 » Mon Oct 14, 2019 2:02 pm

Lol I would have traded AB for Saquon in a heart beat since the moment Saquon declared for the draft, and I was taking Barkley 1.05 in startups. As great as this class is, there's no Barkley level prospect. Jeudy is probably the closest thing to Barkley and the best WR prospect in several years, but even he's not that close. What makes this class so great is its depth of quality prospects, not necessarily its handful of unbelievable studs. Jacobs was what a lot of the players in this draft are, a high quality prospect but not a super elite one. The difference between him and all of those guys is he's proven he is more than capable at the NFL level and will get a workload to support very good fantasy production, and he's essentially the same age as them or even younger than some. Since he's basically an equal level prospect and same age as most of the guys in this class but also already proven as an NFL player he is more valuable that the majority of the 1st round of this class. There are 3 guys at the top (Jeudy, Taylor, Swift) who are probably better prospects than he was, so I wouldn't be too bothered by someone trading him for one of those 3, but I don't see anyway he can be valued any less than 1.04 in the class.

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Re: Josh Jacobs vs 2020 draft class

Postby jonesmaster » Mon Oct 14, 2019 2:39 pm

notweswelker wrote:
Mon Oct 14, 2019 1:48 pm
jonesmaster wrote:
Mon Oct 14, 2019 1:15 pm

I don't agree with changing the valuation. You see it year after year; People would have said that trading AB for the first overall in Barkley's year was a dumb decision. Then look what happened 5 games into that same year, instantly ranked above AB. When the talent is as good as this year I see no reason to balk at 1.05 for Jacobs getting declined -- I would decline it. Point being, i totally agree with the mid-late 1st value
I'm not sure who those people are you are referencing, but Barkley was one of the highest sought after prospects in dynasty history.
The hype around his value was like nothing we have ever, or will ever see for a long time. AB as good as he was, was 29 at the time. I had one of the 1.01's and I wouldn't have been anywhere near tempted for a straight swap.
I used Barkley as an extreme example. The same can be said of CMC, Dalvin Cook etc.The recent history suggests that taking the asset you know does not necessarily mean that you have a better player. These rookies will be valued at the lowest they will ever be from the point they succeed going forward --- there are many occasions where the proven asset equivalent at the time becomes separated from the rookie by a 1st or more within 1 year. Think about the "proven players" you would have traded to acquire CMC and Cook at the time, and their value relative to these players now.

No one knows anything in dynasty, and thats what makes it fun. But almost every year - especially in a year as hyped as 2020 - there will be multiple breakout players flying into the top 20 as a result of production, age and general hype. Especially with rookie running backs who almost always seem to get a ton of use when they're drafted in the first 2 rounds (like many of the 2020 class are projected to be). Im not trying to say that Jacobs is a bad player or that he's the equivalent of tracing for a 29 y/o etc. my point is that I think there is no reason to change your valuation of him as a prospect relative to this class.
10-team Full PPR Scoring: 1QB, 2WR, 2RB, 1FLX, 1 SFLX, 1TE, 1D/ST, K

QB: Wilson , Watson , Baker, Teddy B, Stidham
RB: Ekeler , Drake , White, Coleman, Gio, Lewis, Wilkins
WR: Tyreek , MT , Juju, Landry, Mike Will, Robby Anderson, Dede
TE: Kittle , Brate, Njoku, Dissly
D/ST: Bills, Colts, Vikings

2020 Picks: 1.05, 1.07, 2.01, 2.06, 2.07 2021 Picks: 1, 1, 2, 2, 3

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Re: Josh Jacobs vs 2020 draft class

Postby hoos89 » Mon Oct 14, 2019 2:48 pm

jonesmaster wrote:
Mon Oct 14, 2019 1:15 pm

I don't agree with changing the valuation. You see it year after year; People would have said that trading AB for the first overall in Barkley's year was a dumb decision. Then look what happened 5 games into that same year, instantly ranked above AB. When the talent is as good as this year I see no reason to balk at 1.05 for Jacobs getting declined -- I would decline it. Point being, i totally agree with the mid-late 1st value
I don't really follow the logic here. (1) This class is very talented, but as of now I don't think it contains a Saquon Barkley level player, (2) even if it did, there certainly are not FOUR such players, (3) you could look at any number of counter examples where a rookie was taken over more established players and the rookie ended up busting, (4) I don't think anybody predicted that AB was going to go completely insane so that's not necessarily a great comparison, and (5) that's just a completely different scenario....AB is 31 and Josh Jacobs is only 21 so there's no material difference in age between Jacobs and the 2020 class. Heck Jacobs has way more tread on his tires than Jonathan Taylor and is a bit less than a year older.

And just generally...why would you not adjust Jacobs' value on the basis of a 5 game sample?

E: Also, Saquon's July ADP was higher than AB's.

jonesmaster wrote:
Mon Oct 14, 2019 2:39 pm


I used Barkley as an extreme example. The same can be said of CMC, Dalvin Cook etc.The recent history suggests that taking the asset you know does not necessarily mean that you have a better player. These rookies will be valued at the lowest they will ever be from the point they succeed going forward --- there are many occasions where the proven asset equivalent at the time becomes separated from the rookie by a 1st or more within 1 year. Think about the "proven players" you would have traded to acquire CMC and Cook at the time, and their value relative to these players now.

No one knows anything in dynasty, and thats what makes it fun. But almost every year - especially in a year as hyped as 2020 - there will be multiple breakout players flying into the top 20 as a result of production, age and general hype. Especially with rookie running backs who almost always seem to get a ton of use when they're drafted in the first 2 rounds (like many of the 2020 class are projected to be). Im not trying to say that Jacobs is a bad player or that he's the equivalent of tracing for a 29 y/o etc. my point is that I think there is no reason to change your valuation of him as a prospect relative to this class.
You're also cherry picking the picks that have turned out well. What if Josh Jacobs turns into a perennial top 8 RB but you traded him for Corey Coleman?

Also Jacobs should already be considered a top 20 startup pick. Not sure why him getting off to a 1,600+ scrimmage yard pace through 1/3 of the fantasy season is not cause to adjust his value. That's a bit crazy...we now know he can succeed at this level; we may believe that all of the top 2020 prospects can too, but we thought that about Laquon Treadwell, Kevin White, Corey Davis and Trent Richardson too.
Team 2: 12 Team PPR - 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 2 R/W/T, 23 man rosters, est. 2016
Wentz, Minshew, Bridgewater, Haskins
Jacobs, Michel, D. Harris, Richard, Gaskin
DJ Moore, Sutton, Kupp, Kirk, Deebo, Dorsett, J. Gordon, Lee, Lazard
OJ Howard, Hockenson, Herndon
IR(2): Love, McKinnon
Taxi(4): MVS
2020 Picks: 1.03, 1.05, 1.11, 1.12, 1.13, 2.03, 2.11, 2.12, 3.05, 3.11, 4.03, 5.03

Team 3: 12 Team PPR, 6 pt Pass TD - 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 3 R/W/T, 28 man rosters, est. 2019
Ryan, Bridgewater, Tannehill
Gurley, Barber, M. Brown, Miller, McKinnon, Ito, J. Jackson, R. Anderson, Richard, Edmunds
Thomas, Cooks, Watkins, Anderson, Beasley, Foster, Doctson, KeeSean, Lazard, Treadwell
Hooper, Herndon, Witten, Reed
2020 Picks: 1.01, 1.04, 1.06, 1.07, 1.08, 2.10, 2.11

Team 1: 2012-2016
2013 Champion, 2012 Runner-Up

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Re: Josh Jacobs vs 2020 draft class

Postby vixen » Mon Oct 14, 2019 3:08 pm

everyone was trying to get out of those 1st round picks that year.. and nobody was buying.. so using Doctson, Treadwell etc isn't a great comparison either.. other than pick 1.01 (zeke) most were trying to move the pick and those that couldn't reluctantly drafted those WRs.. while some got lucky and drafted MT and perhaps even Shepard, Fuller and Hooper)
now if we talk about 2018..they were coveted and many have not lived up to the hype: Royce, Penny, RoJo, Guice.. so yes, it is very possible to trade Josh Jacobs for an early 1st and end up with a clunker..
I like Josh Jacobs, so I would rather hang onto him .. the trade offers will still be out there after the NFL Draft so there isn't a reason to trade him now..
team 1 -start QB RB 2WR TE 2RB/WR 1WR/TE
qbs=5pt tds wr/te=1 ppr rbs=.5ppr all get .25ppc
mahomes, Dan Jones
kamara, mack, lindsay, AP/love,Jaylen, Pollard, McKissic
antonio, AJG/Erickson, thielen, allison, sutton, kirk, Hurd, JJAW, Slayton
Hooper, Herndon
team 2 -start QB 2RB 3WR TE 2Flex K D
Cousins, Jimmy GQ, Brissett
DJ, DFreeman, McKinnon, Samuels, DHenry, Pollard, Darwin Thompson
Hopkins, Diggs, Adams, Jo Brown, Boyd, Hamilton/Sutton, JJAW, Harmon
Herndon, Andrews, Fant
team 3-superflex/TE premium 1-2QB 1-6RB 2-7WR 1-6TE (10 total)
R/W=.2ppc/1ppr/.25pt per target TE=1.5ppr/.35per target/.15per yd
also .1pt per return yd/.05 per attempt
Josh Allen, Jones
Cook/Latavius, Abdullah, White, Chubb, Sanders
Watkins, Lockett, Kupp, Jo Brown, Patterson, Funchess/Cain, Agholor, Kumerow, Callaway, Patterson, Hollywood, Hurd, Isabella
Andrews, Herndon, I Thomas, Gronk, Waller, Fant

hoos89
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Re: Josh Jacobs vs 2020 draft class

Postby hoos89 » Mon Oct 14, 2019 3:32 pm

This feels like a bit of a revisionist take. I get that it wasn't a super hyped draft, but Treadwell, Coleman and Doctson still had July ADPs in the 28-41 range, which is pretty much identical to 1.02-1.04 in 2018 (30-41).

A better comparison would maybe be 2017 (1.04 went 29 and 1.05 went 38). But (based on July 2017 mizelle ADP), you're essentially looking at 25% of the first round being a massive win for you in this deal (CMC, Cook, Kamara...and note that none of those 3 went top 3 so this isn't like you're guaranteed to get one if you have a top 3 pick), another 17% that are somewhere between even-ish value and a slight downgrade (Fournette and Mixon), and 58% would be a significant value downgrade if not a complete bust (Njoku, OJ Howard, Ross, Perine, Corey Davis, Mike Williams...plus Hunt, although he's obviously a weird case).

Yeah JuJu was ADP 13 and there's some huge value guys down in the 2nd, but that just illustrates part of the difficulty of rookie picks...you might pick a Perine over a JuJu or a Godwin. Jacobs is a far more down commodity, and there aren't many players who haven't played a snap in the NFL that I'd trade him away for 1:1.
Team 2: 12 Team PPR - 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 2 R/W/T, 23 man rosters, est. 2016
Wentz, Minshew, Bridgewater, Haskins
Jacobs, Michel, D. Harris, Richard, Gaskin
DJ Moore, Sutton, Kupp, Kirk, Deebo, Dorsett, J. Gordon, Lee, Lazard
OJ Howard, Hockenson, Herndon
IR(2): Love, McKinnon
Taxi(4): MVS
2020 Picks: 1.03, 1.05, 1.11, 1.12, 1.13, 2.03, 2.11, 2.12, 3.05, 3.11, 4.03, 5.03

Team 3: 12 Team PPR, 6 pt Pass TD - 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 3 R/W/T, 28 man rosters, est. 2019
Ryan, Bridgewater, Tannehill
Gurley, Barber, M. Brown, Miller, McKinnon, Ito, J. Jackson, R. Anderson, Richard, Edmunds
Thomas, Cooks, Watkins, Anderson, Beasley, Foster, Doctson, KeeSean, Lazard, Treadwell
Hooper, Herndon, Witten, Reed
2020 Picks: 1.01, 1.04, 1.06, 1.07, 1.08, 2.10, 2.11

Team 1: 2012-2016
2013 Champion, 2012 Runner-Up

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Re: Josh Jacobs vs 2020 draft class

Postby Vcize » Mon Oct 14, 2019 8:37 pm

notweswelker wrote:
Mon Oct 14, 2019 1:48 pm
jonesmaster wrote:
Mon Oct 14, 2019 1:15 pm

I don't agree with changing the valuation. You see it year after year; People would have said that trading AB for the first overall in Barkley's year was a dumb decision. Then look what happened 5 games into that same year, instantly ranked above AB. When the talent is as good as this year I see no reason to balk at 1.05 for Jacobs getting declined -- I would decline it. Point being, i totally agree with the mid-late 1st value
I'm not sure who those people are you are referencing, but Barkley was one of the highest sought after prospects in dynasty history.
The hype around his value was like nothing we have ever, or will ever see for a long time. AB as good as he was, was 29 at the time. I had one of the 1.01's and I wouldn't have been anywhere near tempted for a straight swap.
Yeah Le'Veon of David Johnson vs. Barkley would have been a better example. People weren't taking AB over Barkley.
Team 1 (12 team FFPC)
QB: Wentz
RB: Cook, A Jones, Mixon, Kerryon, Hunt, Hill, Drake
WR: OBJ, Lockett, ARob, Woods, ARob, Preston
TE: Howard, Cook, Goedert, Njoku, Knox

Team 2 (12 team PPR, q/r/r/w/w/w/f/t/k/d)
QB: Wilson, Dak
RB: Fournette, Kamara, Michel, Kerryon, Blount
WR: Beckham, Thielen, Enunwa, M Williams, Beasely, Amendola
TE: Eifert, Hooper, Gesicki

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Re: Josh Jacobs vs 2020 draft class

Postby jonesmaster » Mon Oct 14, 2019 9:10 pm

Vcize wrote:
Mon Oct 14, 2019 8:37 pm
notweswelker wrote:
Mon Oct 14, 2019 1:48 pm
jonesmaster wrote:
Mon Oct 14, 2019 1:15 pm

I don't agree with changing the valuation. You see it year after year; People would have said that trading AB for the first overall in Barkley's year was a dumb decision. Then look what happened 5 games into that same year, instantly ranked above AB. When the talent is as good as this year I see no reason to balk at 1.05 for Jacobs getting declined -- I would decline it. Point being, i totally agree with the mid-late 1st value
I'm not sure who those people are you are referencing, but Barkley was one of the highest sought after prospects in dynasty history.
The hype around his value was like nothing we have ever, or will ever see for a long time. AB as good as he was, was 29 at the time. I had one of the 1.01's and I wouldn't have been anywhere near tempted for a straight swap.
Yeah Le'Veon of David Johnson vs. Barkley would have been a better example. People weren't taking AB over Barkley.
Agreed. I picked a bad example - specific to my league I guess. The point I am trying to make is that I don’t see why Jacobs would be ranked any higher than the top 4 in this class. Comparing to other classes that were less hyped Is a pointless experiment. Like guys using the zeke class as an example really undersells the 2020 class’ hype. This is extremely similar to 2017 with the added plus of elite WR talent and depth. I would take swift Taylor Jeudy lamb and Ruggs over Jacobs.i guess that’s a controversial take
10-team Full PPR Scoring: 1QB, 2WR, 2RB, 1FLX, 1 SFLX, 1TE, 1D/ST, K

QB: Wilson , Watson , Baker, Teddy B, Stidham
RB: Ekeler , Drake , White, Coleman, Gio, Lewis, Wilkins
WR: Tyreek , MT , Juju, Landry, Mike Will, Robby Anderson, Dede
TE: Kittle , Brate, Njoku, Dissly
D/ST: Bills, Colts, Vikings

2020 Picks: 1.05, 1.07, 2.01, 2.06, 2.07 2021 Picks: 1, 1, 2, 2, 3

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Re: Josh Jacobs vs 2020 draft class

Postby fab10 » Tue Oct 15, 2019 5:04 am

What Jacobs has done these 5 weeks is what you hope your top 4 pick can do next year, easily a top 2 pick ,
12 Team Standard

Qb- Mahomes,
Wr-Hill,Sutton, Mclaurin,Slayton
Rb-Cook, Jacobs, Carson ,Mattison ,Love
TE- Engram, Higbee, Cook
K- Butker
D-Bears

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Re: Josh Jacobs vs 2020 draft class

Postby hoos89 » Tue Oct 15, 2019 8:22 am

jonesmaster wrote:
Mon Oct 14, 2019 9:10 pm
Vcize wrote:
Mon Oct 14, 2019 8:37 pm
notweswelker wrote:
Mon Oct 14, 2019 1:48 pm


I'm not sure who those people are you are referencing, but Barkley was one of the highest sought after prospects in dynasty history.
The hype around his value was like nothing we have ever, or will ever see for a long time. AB as good as he was, was 29 at the time. I had one of the 1.01's and I wouldn't have been anywhere near tempted for a straight swap.
Yeah Le'Veon of David Johnson vs. Barkley would have been a better example. People weren't taking AB over Barkley.
Agreed. I picked a bad example - specific to my league I guess. The point I am trying to make is that I don’t see why Jacobs would be ranked any higher than the top 4 in this class. Comparing to other classes that were less hyped Is a pointless experiment. Like guys using the zeke class as an example really undersells the 2020 class’ hype. This is extremely similar to 2017 with the added plus of elite WR talent and depth. I would take swift Taylor Jeudy lamb and Ruggs over Jacobs.i guess that’s a controversial take
Conveniently ignoring my comparison to 2017. Corey Davis went 1.01 or 1.02 in most leagues. Fournette is not worth more than Jacobs in my opinion. Mixon is maybe worth a similar amount (and trending in the wrong direction). Only CMC, Cook and Kamara are currently worth significantly more than Jacobs from the top 12 in ADP in that class. Yeah if you traded for a top 5 1st you ended up with a great chance to get someone worth about as much as or significantly more than Jacobs, but outside of that there's a pretty good chance you busted. And that's comparing to a class that we know was/is outstanding, not one that we merely project to be, which is why I think it would be a bit ridiculous to move Jacobs for a mid 2020 1st or later and why it's still pretty risky to move him for even an early first...because there's probably going to be a Corey Davis in the top 4.

Also, part of the issue is that not all of those 5 you're thinking of are necessarily even going to declare (see: Bryce Love). One or more could get hurt, or end up in a terrible situation (see again: Corey Davis), or maybe they'll test poorly and end up falling far in the draft. The further down that pick is the less confident you should feel because you need things to break right (or at least, not poorly) for more players. And yeah you definitely lose me on Ruggs over Jacobs at this point.
Team 2: 12 Team PPR - 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 2 R/W/T, 23 man rosters, est. 2016
Wentz, Minshew, Bridgewater, Haskins
Jacobs, Michel, D. Harris, Richard, Gaskin
DJ Moore, Sutton, Kupp, Kirk, Deebo, Dorsett, J. Gordon, Lee, Lazard
OJ Howard, Hockenson, Herndon
IR(2): Love, McKinnon
Taxi(4): MVS
2020 Picks: 1.03, 1.05, 1.11, 1.12, 1.13, 2.03, 2.11, 2.12, 3.05, 3.11, 4.03, 5.03

Team 3: 12 Team PPR, 6 pt Pass TD - 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 3 R/W/T, 28 man rosters, est. 2019
Ryan, Bridgewater, Tannehill
Gurley, Barber, M. Brown, Miller, McKinnon, Ito, J. Jackson, R. Anderson, Richard, Edmunds
Thomas, Cooks, Watkins, Anderson, Beasley, Foster, Doctson, KeeSean, Lazard, Treadwell
Hooper, Herndon, Witten, Reed
2020 Picks: 1.01, 1.04, 1.06, 1.07, 1.08, 2.10, 2.11

Team 1: 2012-2016
2013 Champion, 2012 Runner-Up

hailtoyourvictor
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Re: Josh Jacobs vs 2020 draft class

Postby hailtoyourvictor » Tue Oct 15, 2019 5:04 pm

I've got this offered to me right now:

Give: Josh Jacobs

Get: 2020 2nd, 2020 3rd, 2021 1st.


I already have that guys 2020 1st.

bjd5211
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Re: Josh Jacobs vs 2020 draft class

Postby bjd5211 » Tue Oct 15, 2019 5:10 pm

hailtoyourvictor wrote:
Tue Oct 15, 2019 5:04 pm
I've got this offered to me right now:

Give: Josh Jacobs

Get: 2020 2nd, 2020 3rd, 2021 1st.


I already have that guys 2020 1st.
Lol

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Re: Josh Jacobs vs 2020 draft class

Postby hailtoyourvictor » Tue Oct 15, 2019 5:23 pm

bjd5211 wrote:
Tue Oct 15, 2019 5:10 pm
hailtoyourvictor wrote:
Tue Oct 15, 2019 5:04 pm
I've got this offered to me right now:

Give: Josh Jacobs

Get: 2020 2nd, 2020 3rd, 2021 1st.


I already have that guys 2020 1st.
Lol
What's funny?

I just offered someone else Josh Jacobs for their 2020 1st and two 2020 2nds. Maybe that's dumb of me but I like what I hear about the 2020 class.

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Re: Josh Jacobs vs 2020 draft class

Postby bjd5211 » Tue Oct 15, 2019 5:25 pm

hailtoyourvictor wrote:
Tue Oct 15, 2019 5:23 pm
bjd5211 wrote:
Tue Oct 15, 2019 5:10 pm
hailtoyourvictor wrote:
Tue Oct 15, 2019 5:04 pm
I've got this offered to me right now:

Give: Josh Jacobs

Get: 2020 2nd, 2020 3rd, 2021 1st.


I already have that guys 2020 1st.
Lol
What's funny?

I just offered someone else Josh Jacobs for their 2020 1st and two 2020 2nds. Maybe that's dumb of me but I like what I hear about the 2020 class.
It's a terrible offer, and your other offer you are selling way too light.

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Re: Josh Jacobs vs 2020 draft class

Postby hailtoyourvictor » Tue Oct 15, 2019 5:28 pm

If the 2020 class is as loaded as people say I don't think a 1st and two 2nds is "way too light" for someone people are valuing around 1.04.

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Re: Josh Jacobs vs 2020 draft class

Postby bjd5211 » Tue Oct 15, 2019 5:30 pm

Well you are wrong, but enjoy screwing up your team.


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