Gurley

[darewood11]

Was just offered Gurley for Mixon. With knee injury it's still gota b gurley right? This should be an easy accept right?

[Gator Sens]

I would hold Mixon because of the knee concerns of Gurley. Mixon has top 5 - 6 upside in my opinion.

[Indy Blue]

I think I'd rather have Mixon, but I'm also risk adverse and I never like hearing about degenerative knee conditions. Even if his knee is better than some are speculating, my guess is they aren't going to run him into the ground like they have in previous seasons which lessens his value.

Regardless, if you want to make the trade, I'd counter and try and get a 2020 pick off the guy. He came to you with the trade, so he must want Mixon and to get rid of Gurley.

[Goddard]

I'd rather have Mixon at this point, but wouldn't blame anyone for making that trade.

[darewood11]

I may try for a 2nd. I'm very concerned about the knee also.

[notweswelker]

I'm still taking Gurley. If someone offered me Mixon straight up I'd still pass.
Mixon's a top ten RB when everything breaks right, Gurley is a #1 overall rb when everything breaks right.
Mixon still behind a suspect line with a who knows what coach to go along with another year of Dalton.
Risk on both sides but I'm still Gurley here.

[hoos89]

Mixon's market value is higher than Gurley's right now.

[Goddard]

I'm still taking Gurley. If someone offered me Mixon straight up I'd still pass.
Mixon's a top ten RB when everything breaks right, Gurley is a #1 overall rb when everything breaks right.
Mixon still behind a suspect line with a who knows what coach to go along with another year of Dalton.
Risk on both sides but I'm still Gurley here.

Mixon was the RB10 last year in ppr even after missing 2 games, playing behind an atrocious line, Dalton as his QB, and Marvin Lewis was his head coach. It's fair to say things don't have to "break right" in order for him to be a top 10 RB. Things broke as wrong as they could last year and he still finished as a top 10 RB.

You can argue that this comes down to Mixon's floor (RB10) and Gurley's ceiling (RB1). I'm going to assume Mixon finishes better than RB10 this year and Gurley doesn't finish as the RB1. They might very well finish very close to one another at the end of the year, but one is 2 years older with knee problems and the other is barely entering his prime.

[darewood11]

I'm still taking Gurley. If someone offered me Mixon straight up I'd still pass.
Mixon's a top ten RB when everything breaks right, Gurley is a #1 overall rb when everything breaks right.
Mixon still behind a suspect line with a who knows what coach to go along with another year of Dalton.
Risk on both sides but I'm still Gurley here.

Mixon was the RB10 last year in ppr even after missing 2 games, playing behind an atrocious line, Dalton as his QB, and Marvin Lewis was his head coach. It's fair to say things don't have to "break right" in order for him to be a top 10 RB. Things broke as wrong as they could last year and he still finished as a top 10 RB.

You can argue that this comes down to Mixon's floor (RB10) and Gurley's ceiling (RB1). I'm going to assume Mixon finishes better than RB10 this year and Gurley doesn't finish as the RB1. They might very well finish very close to one another at the end of the year, but one is 2 years older with knee problems and the other is barely entering his prime.

Great response. Thank you

[notweswelker]

Mixon was the RB10 last year in ppr even after missing 2 games, playing behind an atrocious line, Dalton as his QB, and Marvin Lewis was his head coach. It's fair to say things don't have to "break right" in order for him to be a top 10 RB. Things broke as wrong as they could last year and he still finished as a top 10 RB.

You can argue that this comes down to Mixon's floor (RB10) and Gurley's ceiling (RB1). I'm going to assume Mixon finishes better than RB10 this year and Gurley doesn't finish as the RB1. They might very well finish very close to one another at the end of the year, but one is 2 years older with knee problems and the other is barely entering his prime.

The only thing that has maybe improved in Mixon's scenario is a new rookie head coach whose claim to fame is that he happened to exist on McVay's staff. The line has actually gotten worse, Dalton is still the QB, and even more worrisome for Mixon is that AJ Green looks like paper mache at this point. You're also counting on the fact Mixon will play all 16, which he hasn't done yet, and discounting that Gurley was the RB1 despite sitting two games as well in '18. In two years Mixon's best finish is RB9. At this point this is his ceiling, and behind that garbage line with a 'meh' QB and a rookie head coach I see nothing working in his favor for '19.

[Goddard]

Mixon was the RB10 last year in ppr even after missing 2 games, playing behind an atrocious line, Dalton as his QB, and Marvin Lewis was his head coach. It's fair to say things don't have to "break right" in order for him to be a top 10 RB. Things broke as wrong as they could last year and he still finished as a top 10 RB.

You can argue that this comes down to Mixon's floor (RB10) and Gurley's ceiling (RB1). I'm going to assume Mixon finishes better than RB10 this year and Gurley doesn't finish as the RB1. They might very well finish very close to one another at the end of the year, but one is 2 years older with knee problems and the other is barely entering his prime.

The only thing that has maybe improved in Mixon's scenario is a new rookie head coach whose claim to fame is that he happened to exist on McVay's staff. The line has actually gotten worse, Dalton is still the QB, and even more worrisome for Mixon is that AJ Green looks like paper mache at this point. You're also counting on the fact Mixon will play all 16, which he hasn't done yet, and discounting that Gurley was the RB1 despite sitting two games as well in '18. In two years Mixon's best finish is RB9. At this point this is his ceiling, and behind that garbage line with a 'meh' QB and a rookie head coach I see nothing working in his favor for '19.

Mixon's been in the league 2 years. You're making it sound like he's been around forever and has never played a full 16 games. I think I'd be worried more about Gurley missing games at this point than I would with Mixon. As for the line, I'm not sure how much worse it can get. I remember people writing off Gurley after his poor sophomore season because they had a horrible line. The next year, they hired a new coach and all of a sudden, the line miraculously got better (even though it was mostly the same players) and Gurley had a huge season. People were unsure about McVay when he was hired too. Young coach with no real experience. I think it's safe to say that Taylor will be an upgrade over Lewis. As for Green, I think Mixon actually put up better numbers when he was out last year because they began leaning on him more. Green being hurt wouldn't worry me too much.

Your whole argument was that "everything has to break right" in order for Mixon to be a top 10 RB. Are you saying everything broke right for him last year? I'd strongly disagree if that's the case. Saying RB10 is his ceiling and a 3rd year RB can't improve is pretty silly.

[notweswelker]

Your whole argument was that "everything has to break right" in order for Mixon to be a top 10 RB. Are you saying everything broke right for him last year? I'd strongly disagree if that's the case. Saying RB10 is his ceiling and a 3rd year RB can't improve is pretty silly.

I think you're misunderstanding me a bit. Everything has to break right for him AGAIN in order to be a top 10 RB. He was in a bad situation and needed to be incredible to get top 10, and he WAS....buuuut he's in the same, arguably worse situation, and will need everything to break right again to get top 10. If you put Mixon on the Cowboys I'd say he would be a top-3 RB this year. But in his situation, he's going to need to essentially be perfect to get top ten again. It's similar to Gurley's situation in 2016, in that he would have needed everything to break right for him to get top ten (he didn't).

In terms of the sample size, I work with the sample that has been provided, and was pointing out his stats in 14 games do not mean anything more in comparison to Gurley, because obviously Gurley only played in 14 games as well.
I think if you're expecting a McVay like jump in Cincy this season you're going to be sorely disappointed.

Gurley's line in 2016 was not nearly the same one as 2017, and that's something you should probably know Goddard. They upgraded from a
bottom-10 LT (Greg Robinson) to borderline elite one in Andrew Whitworth, funnily enough poaching him from Cincinatti. They also upgraded at Center going from Tim Barnes to an above average John Sullivan, and even upgraded accidentally at guard with Blythe over Jamon Brown. I think a 60% newly upgraded line that already had one great piece (Havenstein) is a pretty monstrous difference.
For Cincy to turn their swiss cheese into anything even resembling the Rams line would be borderline miraculous. Their only shining hope, Jonah Williams was lost for the season. Their best O-Lineman right now, is worse than the worst O-lineman on the Rams.

[Goddard]

Your whole argument was that "everything has to break right" in order for Mixon to be a top 10 RB. Are you saying everything broke right for him last year? I'd strongly disagree if that's the case. Saying RB10 is his ceiling and a 3rd year RB can't improve is pretty silly.

I think you're misunderstanding me a bit. Everything has to break right for him AGAIN in order to be a top 10 RB. He was in a bad situation and needed to be incredible to get top 10, and he WAS....buuuut he's in the same, arguably worse situation, and will need everything to break right again to get top 10. If you put Mixon on the Cowboys I'd say he would be a top-3 RB this year. But in his situation, he's going to need to essentially be perfect to get top ten again. It's similar to Gurley's situation in 2016, in that he would have needed everything to break right for him to get top ten (he didn't).

In terms of the sample size, I work with the sample that has been provided, and was pointing out his stats in 14 games do not mean anything more in comparison to Gurley, because obviously Gurley only played in 14 games as well.
I think if you're expecting a McVay like jump in Cincy this season you're going to be sorely disappointed.

Gurley's line in 2016 was not nearly the same one as 2017, and that's something you should probably know Goddard. They upgraded from a
bottom-10 LT (Greg Robinson) to borderline elite one in Andrew Whitworth, funnily enough poaching him from Cincinatti. They also upgraded at Center going from Tim Barnes to an above average John Sullivan, and even upgraded accidentally at guard with Blythe over Jamon Brown. I think a 60% newly upgraded line that already had one great piece (Havenstein) is a pretty monstrous difference.
For Cincy to turn their swiss cheese into anything even resembling the Rams line would be borderline miraculous. Their only shining hope, Jonah Williams was lost for the season. Their best O-Lineman right now, is worse than the worst O-lineman on the Rams.

I'll agree to disagree because we're probably not going to change one another's minds at this point. I still think the odds of a 23 year old RB in his 3rd season improving on his RB10 numbers is higher than Gurley being the RB1 next year. Like I said in an earlier comment, the two will probably be much closer in total points at the end of the year, and even if Gurley outscores him a bit, I'll take the younger guy with less injury concerns.