Poll: AJ Green vs. Mike Wallace

[Team Canada]

Like I said b4 go for the 1.4. If you think 3 RBs are going 1st the green or Julio will be there at 1.4. Plus u might not have to give up any of ur key players. no point in trading into the top 3 if the ppl in the top 3 won't take ur guy.

[Droseisabeast]

Like I said b4 go for the 1.4. If you think 3 RBs are going 1st the green or Julio will be there at 1.4. Plus u might not have to give up any of ur key players. no point in trading into the top 3 if the ppl in the top 3 won't take ur guy.

X2

[kris_kapsner]

Like I said b4 go for the 1.4. If you think 3 RBs are going 1st the green or Julio will be there at 1.4. Plus u might not have to give up any of ur key players. no point in trading into the top 3 if the ppl in the top 3 won't take ur guy.

This is a very good point. Perhaps you can get the 1.4 for cheaper than Wallace and you can still land your guy. I'd approach that owner and see what he's thinking.

[joeday]

Like I said b4 go for the 1.4. If you think 3 RBs are going 1st the green or Julio will be there at 1.4. Plus u might not have to give up any of ur key players. no point in trading into the top 3 if the ppl in the top 3 won't take ur guy.

I absolutely agree with this, but the guy picking at 1.4 is the type of guy that would turn down offers and just take green...

[TreMan83]

Not as much Pertaining to the exact question but may I suggest to all of those people who think AJ green being drafted by Cinncy is such a terrible thing. How many people were trying to use that same argument a few years back when the hapless Lions drafted Megatron.... That was where WR's went to die and now he is arguably #1 and this coming from a die hard Lions fan... Now let me clarify, I'm by no means saying that AJ is the next Calvin Johnson, however sometimes incredible talent supercedes all else.... I would take my chances on AJ Green in all Formats! Just one poor man's opinion!

[BeRanDone]

Like I said b4 go for the 1.4. If you think 3 RBs are going 1st the green or Julio will be there at 1.4. Plus u might not have to give up any of ur key players. no point in trading into the top 3 if the ppl in the top 3 won't take ur guy.

I absolutely agree with this, but the guy picking at 1.4 is the type of guy that would turn down offers and just take green...

But it's worth a try right? This thread has shown that some would take Wallace over Green while others would take Green over Wallace. It's worth the effort of finding out which side of the fence the 1.04 owner falls on.

[brice587]

Like I said b4 go for the 1.4. If you think 3 RBs are going 1st the green or Julio will be there at 1.4. Plus u might not have to give up any of ur key players. no point in trading into the top 3 if the ppl in the top 3 won't take ur guy.

I absolutely agree with this, but the guy picking at 1.4 is the type of guy that would turn down offers and just take green...

But it's worth a try right? This thread has shown that some would take Wallace over Green while others would take Green over Wallace. It's worth the effort of finding out which side of the fence the 1.04 owner falls on.

If he's moving Wallace anyway just get the 1.03 and don't worry about it. The only reason to try for 1.04 would be if he could get it for something less. Otherwise it is a waste of time.

[joeday]

Not as much Pertaining to the exact question but may I suggest to all of those people who think AJ green being drafted by Cinncy is such a terrible thing. How many people were trying to use that same argument a few years back when the hapless Lions drafted Megatron.... That was where WR's went to die and now he is arguably #1 and this coming from a die hard Lions fan... Now let me clarify, I'm by no means saying that AJ is the next Calvin Johnson, however sometimes incredible talent supercedes all else.... I would take my chances on AJ Green in all Formats! Just one poor man's opinion!

I mean I don't disagree at all about that...and thats the comparison I use about Green going to Cincy. BUT, I think as of now Wallace is in a better situation and has pretty good talent himself. My team is primed to win now (if you saw the other teams in my division lol) and I dont know if taking what could be a HUGE risk is smart for me...

[Wallace's Warriors]

I'd rather swing and risk a 'miss' on Green being a perennial Top-5 to Top-10 stud for a decade than take Wallace who I believe is already very close to his ceiling. Sometimes taking risks vs. playing it safe with 'what you know' pays off and can mean a big difference to a team. I think the upside is greater than the downside in this scenario and believe Green's ceiling is quite a bit higher than Wallace's. Players who make their money as mostly deep-threats don't often have staying power and consistent fantasy production - something I look for in the players I draft. Green can succeed running any route and should be productive at all levels of the field, just one of many reasons I side with the 'unknown' in Green here.

Hmm, if Wallace is close to his "ceiling" at 1257/10 in a non-ppr league in his 2nd year in the league then the question I would ask is what about comparing their "floors"? Again, the next "big" thing doesn't always turn out that way, Charles Rodgers anyone?

This. Part of my 'ceiling' reference implies consistency. Deep-threats don't always round out into balanced receivers. Furthermore, teams learn to defend them (DeSean Jackson is a mild example of this). Take away the over-the-top throws deep and what game is left from Wallace? The answer to that question regarding Green will be 'plenty'.

Charles Rodgers? As far as I know at least two differences here: 1. Green was not drafted by Matt Millen, and 2. Green doesn't hit the weed (have character concerns/lack of work ethic). Yes, it's possible to swing and miss on Green (or any player) but I'll be one to 'gamble on greatness' if the choices are Green or Wallace.

If I want the next Mike Wallace-type of player, it's possible I'll get him the top of round two in Torrey Smith.

That is an opinion. The fact of the matter is this is not always true. This can be proven by standard deviation. Standard deviation is a widely used measurement of variability or diversity used in statistics and probability theory. The standard deviation of Mike Wallace's season is 7.20745 while the standard deviation of Calvin Johnson's season is 7.49444. This means that last season Mike Wallace was more consistent than Calvin Johnson. On the part where teams can figure out how to cover him and shut him down he put up 102 yards against the top cover defense in the league, Jets. Calvin Johnson put up 13 yards. Greg Jennings put up 81 yards. Marshall was held to 16 yards in one of the meetings. In the 45-3 crushing of the Jets by NE the top NE WR put up 80 yards (Danny Woodhead, who is not a WR, put up 104 yards receiving). Andre Johnson had 32 yards when he played them. Brandon Lloyd put up 74 yards.

[TreMan83]

Hmm, if Wallace is close to his "ceiling" at 1257/10 in a non-ppr league in his 2nd year in the league then the question I would ask is what about comparing their "floors"? Again, the next "big" thing doesn't always turn out that way, Charles Rodgers anyone?

This. Part of my 'ceiling' reference implies consistency. Deep-threats don't always round out into balanced receivers. Furthermore, teams learn to defend them (DeSean Jackson is a mild example of this). Take away the over-the-top throws deep and what game is left from Wallace? The answer to that question regarding Green will be 'plenty'.

Charles Rodgers? As far as I know at least two differences here: 1. Green was not drafted by Matt Millen, and 2. Green doesn't hit the weed (have character concerns/lack of work ethic). Yes, it's possible to swing and miss on Green (or any player) but I'll be one to 'gamble on greatness' if the choices are Green or Wallace.

If I want the next Mike Wallace-type of player, it's possible I'll get him the top of round two in Torrey Smith.

That is an opinion. The fact of the matter is this is not always true. This can be proven by standard deviation. Standard deviation is a widely used measurement of variability or diversity used in statistics and probability theory. The standard deviation of Mike Wallace's season is 7.20745 while the standard deviation of Calvin Johnson's season is 7.49444. This means that last season Mike Wallace was more consistent than Calvin Johnson. On the part where teams can figure out how to cover him and shut him down he put up 102 yards against the top cover defense in the league, Jets. Calvin Johnson put up 13 yards. Greg Jennings put up 81 yards. Marshall was held to 16 yards in one of the meetings. In the 45-3 crushing of the Jets by NE the top NE WR put up 80 yards (Danny Woodhead, who is not a WR, put up 104 yards receiving). Andre Johnson had 32 yards when he played them. Brandon Lloyd put up 74 yards.

Thanks for the Standard Deviation Garbage....errrr Wonderful mathematic theory.... How about this... Using the following categories:
Rec, Yds, Yds/Gm, Avg, Lg, TD, YAC, Trgt..... We find that the Standard deviation is as follows

Calvin Johnson: 374.05561
Mike Wallace: 425.21528

Which means it is the exact opposite of what you found.... All I'm saying is if your going to pull that kind of stuff out, at least put what your basing it on, category wise, or everybody could come out throwing some numbers in the air based on their own "special formulas" Thanks!

[Wallace's Warriors]

This. Part of my 'ceiling' reference implies consistency. Deep-threats don't always round out into balanced receivers. Furthermore, teams learn to defend them (DeSean Jackson is a mild example of this). Take away the over-the-top throws deep and what game is left from Wallace? The answer to that question regarding Green will be 'plenty'.

Charles Rodgers? As far as I know at least two differences here: 1. Green was not drafted by Matt Millen, and 2. Green doesn't hit the weed (have character concerns/lack of work ethic). Yes, it's possible to swing and miss on Green (or any player) but I'll be one to 'gamble on greatness' if the choices are Green or Wallace.

If I want the next Mike Wallace-type of player, it's possible I'll get him the top of round two in Torrey Smith.

That is an opinion. The fact of the matter is this is not always true. This can be proven by standard deviation. Standard deviation is a widely used measurement of variability or diversity used in statistics and probability theory. The standard deviation of Mike Wallace's season is 7.20745 while the standard deviation of Calvin Johnson's season is 7.49444. This means that last season Mike Wallace was more consistent than Calvin Johnson. On the part where teams can figure out how to cover him and shut him down he put up 102 yards against the top cover defense in the league, Jets. Calvin Johnson put up 13 yards. Greg Jennings put up 81 yards. Marshall was held to 16 yards in one of the meetings. In the 45-3 crushing of the Jets by NE the top NE WR put up 80 yards (Danny Woodhead, who is not a WR, put up 104 yards receiving). Andre Johnson had 32 yards when he played them. Brandon Lloyd put up 74 yards.

Thanks for the Standard Deviation Garbage....errrr Wonderful mathematic theory.... How about this... Using the following categories:
Rec, Yds, Yds/Gm, Avg, Lg, TD, YAC, Trgt..... We find that the Standard deviation is as follows

Calvin Johnson: 374.05561
Mike Wallace: 425.21528

Which means it is the exact opposite of what you found.... All I'm saying is if your going to pull that kind of stuff out, at least put what your basing it on, category wise, or everybody could come out throwing some numbers in the air based on their own "special formulas" Thanks!

That is based on fantasy points per game. Sorry that I forgot to right that. I used this formula to show that he was a more consistent WR, when it comes to putting fantasy points on the board, compared to Calvin Johnson. I was just trying to keep fact away from opinion.

[kris_kapsner]

Wallace was very consistent and he was impressive last year. It's hard to give up a 24 year old WR who just put up 10 TDs in a TD scoring league.

I'm personally not so sure he maintains that pace. I'd rather have Mike Williams in Tampa who put up 11 TDs as a rookie because of his skill set. But, that's another discussion.

What this boils down to is how much risk do you want to take on? Green undeniably has the higher ceiling when compared to Wallace from a talent stand point. There are other factors to weigh though, like his situation in Cinci not being as enticing as the stability you find in Pitt. But, I really couldn't fault anyone for choosing one side of this or the other. I personally like Green. But, in pretty much every start up draft out there you'll find Wallace going off the board a little before Green. So, it's a bit of a toss up based on how much risk you want to take.

[Misfit74]

That is an opinion. The fact of the matter is this is not always true. This can be proven by standard deviation. Standard deviation is a widely used measurement of variability or diversity used in statistics and probability theory. The standard deviation of Mike Wallace's season is 7.20745 while the standard deviation of Calvin Johnson's season is 7.49444. This means that last season Mike Wallace was more consistent than Calvin Johnson. On the part where teams can figure out how to cover him and shut him down he put up 102 yards against the top cover defense in the league, Jets. Calvin Johnson put up 13 yards. Greg Jennings put up 81 yards. Marshall was held to 16 yards in one of the meetings. In the 45-3 crushing of the Jets by NE the top NE WR put up 80 yards (Danny Woodhead, who is not a WR, put up 104 yards receiving). Andre Johnson had 32 yards when he played them. Brandon Lloyd put up 74 yards.

Thanks for the Standard Deviation Garbage....errrr Wonderful mathematic theory.... How about this... Using the following categories:
Rec, Yds, Yds/Gm, Avg, Lg, TD, YAC, Trgt..... We find that the Standard deviation is as follows

Calvin Johnson: 374.05561
Mike Wallace: 425.21528

Which means it is the exact opposite of what you found.... All I'm saying is if your going to pull that kind of stuff out, at least put what your basing it on, category wise, or everybody could come out throwing some numbers in the air based on their own "special formulas" Thanks!

That is based on fantasy points per game. Sorry that I forgot to right that. I used this formula to show that he was a more consistent WR, when it comes to putting fantasy points on the board, compared to Calvin Johnson. I was just trying to keep fact away from opinion.

I for one appreciate intelligent, thoughtful discussion. The Standard Deviation info was fine. I would like to know how you got that info, though, so I can read more at the source (you can PM, if you like?). I'm learning from this discussion, which is fine by me. I'd rather learn than 'win' or be 'right'.

One think I'll say is that it would make sense Calvin's was down in 2010 - he played with a string of pathetic QBs almost the entire season. No doubt BR's abilities helped Wallace more than 'DET QB' helped Calvin. Part of the 'consistency' I'm referring to is the ability to win at all levels of the field - AND - consistency from season to season. It's my opinion that Green will be more consistent game-to-game (with some experience) and over a longer period of time (regardless of the minor age discrepancy). And while I realize I'm arguing based on speculation for Green, which is like arguing with the wind, there are a few more numbers in about Wallace's 2010 that have me questioning whether or not his season, which by all means was fantastic, is repeatable and/or sustainable:

Yards per Target: 12.7 Led league, 1.7 YPT over the next closest, D.Jackson
% of Targets Deep: 43%, 5th-most Deep Passes in NFL
Targets: 32nd in NFL
Catch Rate of 60%, 30th in NFL

So if PIT can continue to burn teams deep with Wallace, he'll have success, no question. I wouldn't want to count on a bomb every game for production, though. Unless Wallace grows some game outside of deep passes, 2010 could very probably be his career season.

[joeday]

So, I made a deal...

I traded McCoy, Greene, Wallace and a 3.12 for Moreno, Hardesty, Megatron, and pick 1.3...

1.3, as I mentioned before, will be AJ Green. I will have my choice of him or any RB other than Ingram and (most likely) Daniel Thomas...looking at my League 3 team in my signature I am thinking I go BPA, which would be Green and let him develop behind Calvin and Nicks. Thoughts on the trade and thoughts on taking Green at 1.3? Remember, this is a non-PPR league.

PS I know the team that has JStew as his RB4, would likely trade him for pick 1.3 to take Green...is that a deal I consider?

[BeRanDone]

So, I made a deal...

I traded McCoy, Greene, Wallace and a 3.12 for Moreno, Hardesty, Megatron, and pick 1.3...

1.3, as I mentioned before, will be AJ Green. I will have my choice of him or any RB other than Ingram and (most likely) Daniel Thomas...looking at my League 3 team in my signature I am thinking I go BPA, which would be Green and let him develop behind Calvin and Nicks. Thoughts on the trade and thoughts on taking Green at 1.3? Remember, this is a non-PPR league.

PS I know the team that has JStew as his RB4, would likely trade him for pick 1.3 to take Green...is that a deal I consider?

McCoy >>>>> Moreno
Greene >> Hardesty
Wallace << Calvin
3.12 <<<<<<<<<<<< 1.03 (AJ Green)

Not a deal I would have done myself, but it's fair. The bump from Wallace to Calvin isn't worth the huge drop from McCoy to Moreno IMO.

As for trading 1.03 for Stewart, I wouldn't simply based on what you gave up to get Green. Draft your guy and let him develop behind Calvin/Nicks like you said.