Dynasty League Football Forum

Duke Nuk’em wrote: ↑Sat May 18, 2019 11:05 am

Kittenmittens wrote: ↑Thu May 16, 2019 2:51 pm Hopkins is about to go over the age cliff. Now is the time to sell. 2 years ago, Julio Jones, Antonio Brown and AJ Green were 27 years old at the top of the rankings. Now they are 3rd or 4th round picks because they got a few years older.

This is what is making Julio, AB, Green and soon Hopkins steals. I’ll happily take them in the 3rd or 4th. But I personally haven’t seen them later than the 2nd, 3rd for Green.

Yep I agree. Hopkins will be a steal in 2 years when the market devalues him because of age.

The only problem with acquiring these older players is you get stuck with them. They become a hot potato, and nobody will pay anywhere close to fair value in a trade. That means you are stuck with them until they retire.

In 1 league I have AB, Julio, and AJG and they are basically untradeable unless I give them away. The Juju owner just laughed at my offer of any of those 3 plus Aaron Jones. My team is dying of old age (just lost Gronk) and I can't get younger because nobody will touch the aging players. At least I'm winning championships, but soon enough I'll be in full rebuild when the retirements come.

I traded away Hopkins for Mike Evans, Cooper Kupp, & Nick Chubb during the preseason this past year. Hope that helps with perspective.

I think Hopkins might be the most unattainable player currently. I think Saquon is cheaper even though his startup is more.

Kittenmittens wrote: ↑Thu May 16, 2019 5:23 pm

lukkynumber13 wrote: ↑Thu May 16, 2019 3:34 pm

Kittenmittens wrote: ↑Thu May 16, 2019 2:51 pm I also prefer Juju by a wide margin.

Their expected production is pretty close, maybe Hopkins is 15 percent better.

I see Juju as having another 9 years of elite fantasy production. I see Hopkins with 3 or 4 more years, and about to lose value steadily as he ages. 15 percent more expected points doesn't make up for the longevity and value retention of Juju in my eyes.

Hopkins is about to go over the age cliff. Now is the time to sell. 2 years ago, Julio Jones, Antonio Brown and AJ Green were 27 years old at the top of the rankings. Now they are 3rd or 4th round picks because they got a few years older.

In 2 years, Juju owners will laugh at a Hopkins offer.

This is some dangerous thinking.

It's just playing the odds. The only thing that is guaranteed to happen here is Hopkins is guaranteed to lose dynasty value as he approaches and turns 30. Elite production won't change that. Even if Juju does not maintain elite production, barring a very unlikely event he will be much more valuable than Hopkins in 2 years.

Let's see what Juju does now that AB is gone before we jump to predicting his value 2-9 years from now. You're also forgetting another guarantee... Big Ben is 37, Watson is 23. One is guaranteed to retire before his #1 WR.

theWilkman wrote: ↑Tue May 21, 2019 7:44 am You're also forgetting another guarantee... Big Ben is 37, Watson is 23. One is guaranteed to retire before his #1 WR.

hopkins has also shown to be QB-proof (no, brock's not a QB)

theWilkman wrote: ↑Tue May 21, 2019 7:44 am

Kittenmittens wrote: ↑Thu May 16, 2019 5:23 pm

lukkynumber13 wrote: ↑Thu May 16, 2019 3:34 pm This is some dangerous thinking.

It's just playing the odds. The only thing that is guaranteed to happen here is Hopkins is guaranteed to lose dynasty value as he approaches and turns 30. Elite production won't change that. Even if Juju does not maintain elite production, barring a very unlikely event he will be much more valuable than Hopkins in 2 years.

Let's see what Juju does now that AB is gone before we jump to predicting his value 2-9 years from now. You're also forgetting another guarantee... Big Ben is 37, Watson is 23. One is guaranteed to retire before his #1 WR.

Great point on the QBs. I have no concerns about Juju with AB gone. If anything he will probably do better. Probably less efficient, but an insane amount of targets.

I really see Hopkins and Juju as very similar WRs and athletic profiles. Hopkins has the track record, and Juju has an entire career ahead of him. My main reason for preferring Juju is value perception in terms of other owners devaluing 28 and 29 year old WRs.

Very surprised at the mentality here. I think someone here said they wouldn’t even accept JuJu plus 1.01 for Hopkins?! Insane. I own both in the same squad and view them as essentially equals. Hopkins is the best receiver in the NFL, no doubt, but JuJu is 4.5 years younger and is putting up pretty comparable numbers. I think the “dangerous thinking” is not factoring a player’s age into the equation.

Kittenmittens wrote: ↑Thu May 16, 2019 5:23 pm
It's just playing the odds. The only thing that is guaranteed to happen here is Hopkins is guaranteed to lose dynasty value as he approaches and turns 30. Elite production won't change that. Even if Juju does not maintain elite production, barring a very unlikely event he will be much more valuable than Hopkins in 2 years.

I think you're a bit off on where the age cliff for WR dynasty value typically is. It's more like 29-30, not 27. AB was still going top ten last August. AJG was going top 10 during his age 29 season. Yes, many WRs will lose value prior to that, but that would typically be due to injury and production drop-off, not merely because they're seen as being too old. Hopkins isn't likely to lose value due solely to age this season or next.

hoos89 wrote: ↑Wed May 22, 2019 8:31 pm

Kittenmittens wrote: ↑Thu May 16, 2019 5:23 pm
It's just playing the odds. The only thing that is guaranteed to happen here is Hopkins is guaranteed to lose dynasty value as he approaches and turns 30. Elite production won't change that. Even if Juju does not maintain elite production, barring a very unlikely event he will be much more valuable than Hopkins in 2 years.

I think you're a bit off on where the age cliff for WR dynasty value typically is. It's more like 29-30, not 27. AB was still going top ten last August. AJG was going top 10 during his age 29 season. Yes, many WRs will lose value prior to that, but that would typically be due to injury and production drop-off, not merely because they're seen as being too old. Hopkins isn't likely to lose value due solely to age this season or next.

I agree on the paper value in terms of ADP. I disagree on being able to trade these guys for full value once they hit 28. The other owners, in my leagues at least, are wary of buying an asset that is almost certain to decline in value in a year or two.

This may be something league dependent, but I've had a hell of a time selling 28 and 29 year old WRs.

Maybe it depends on the league, but there will typically be a contending owner who is willing to pay up for a 28 year old WR in the middle of the season. Yes the market shrinks, but the value is still there. Antonio Brown, for instance, definitely could have been sold for top 5 value 3 years ago coming off a 136/1834/10 season.

hoos89 wrote: ↑Thu May 23, 2019 8:58 am Maybe it depends on the league, but there will typically be a contending owner who is willing to pay up for a 28 year old WR in the middle of the season. Yes the market shrinks, but the value is still there. Antonio Brown, for instance, definitely could have been sold for top 5 value 3 years ago coming off a 136/1834/10 season.

In some ways this is the point I am trying to make. 2 and 3 years ago you could have traded AB for Hopkins plus. Today, that deal is laughable even just straight up mostly because of Brown's age.

Today, you can trade Hopkins for Juju plus. When Hopkins gets to 29/30 in two and three years, that deal will be laughable for a 24/25 year old Juju.

My goal is to keep the most amount of value on my team, measured in trade value because that is fairly comprehensive. Having a top players trade value evaporate due to retirement or age is a huge blow to total team value, and age related value decline is easy to anticipate.

Also would add, I'm trying to compete and get younger at the same time and not have that rebuild, so those mid season trades are harder because the acquiring team usually wants to move draft capital. I like to flip my 27 and 28 year olds for the next generation of studs before it is too late.

Kittenmittens wrote: ↑Thu May 23, 2019 10:53 am

hoos89 wrote: ↑Thu May 23, 2019 8:58 am Maybe it depends on the league, but there will typically be a contending owner who is willing to pay up for a 28 year old WR in the middle of the season. Yes the market shrinks, but the value is still there. Antonio Brown, for instance, definitely could have been sold for top 5 value 3 years ago coming off a 136/1834/10 season.

In some ways this is the point I am trying to make. 2 and 3 years ago you could have traded AB for Hopkins plus. Today, that deal is laughable even just straight up mostly because of Brown's age.

Today, you can trade Hopkins for Juju plus. When Hopkins gets to 29/30 in two and three years, that deal will be laughable for a 24/25 year old Juju.

My goal is to keep the most amount of value on my team, measured in trade value because that is fairly comprehensive. Having a top players trade value evaporate due to retirement or age is a huge blow to total team value, and age related value decline is easy to anticipate.

Also would add, I'm trying to compete and get younger at the same time and not have that rebuild, so those mid season trades are harder because the acquiring team usually wants to move draft capital. I like to flip my 27 and 28 year olds for the next generation of studs before it is too late.

This is fine, assuming the “plus” is more than just a random future First or second.

But earlier in the thread, it seemed like you were arguing JuJu should be valued over Nuk - straight up. That’s a different discussion than trading Nuk for JuJu & some nice juice.

lukkynumber13 wrote: ↑Thu May 23, 2019 11:03 am

Kittenmittens wrote: ↑Thu May 23, 2019 10:53 am

hoos89 wrote: ↑Thu May 23, 2019 8:58 am Maybe it depends on the league, but there will typically be a contending owner who is willing to pay up for a 28 year old WR in the middle of the season. Yes the market shrinks, but the value is still there. Antonio Brown, for instance, definitely could have been sold for top 5 value 3 years ago coming off a 136/1834/10 season.

In some ways this is the point I am trying to make. 2 and 3 years ago you could have traded AB for Hopkins plus. Today, that deal is laughable even just straight up mostly because of Brown's age.

Today, you can trade Hopkins for Juju plus. When Hopkins gets to 29/30 in two and three years, that deal will be laughable for a 24/25 year old Juju.

My goal is to keep the most amount of value on my team, measured in trade value because that is fairly comprehensive. Having a top players trade value evaporate due to retirement or age is a huge blow to total team value, and age related value decline is easy to anticipate.

Also would add, I'm trying to compete and get younger at the same time and not have that rebuild, so those mid season trades are harder because the acquiring team usually wants to move draft capital. I like to flip my 27 and 28 year olds for the next generation of studs before it is too late.

This is fine, assuming the “plus” is more than just a random future First or second.

But earlier in the thread, it seemed like you were arguing JuJu should be valued over Nuk - straight up. That’s a different discussion than trading Nuk for JuJu & some nice juice.

It's some of both I guess. I personally think Juju is close to equal in value to Hopkins so I guess I am advocating they should be valued straight up.

I know this is not the consensus value, which is why I would take advantage of the discrepancy between my value and consensus value by trading Hopkins for Juju plus. A single random 2020 first if SF league would be enough, but I would try for more...

Kittenmittens wrote: ↑Thu May 23, 2019 10:53 am

hoos89 wrote: ↑Thu May 23, 2019 8:58 am Maybe it depends on the league, but there will typically be a contending owner who is willing to pay up for a 28 year old WR in the middle of the season. Yes the market shrinks, but the value is still there. Antonio Brown, for instance, definitely could have been sold for top 5 value 3 years ago coming off a 136/1834/10 season.

In some ways this is the point I am trying to make. 2 and 3 years ago you could have traded AB for Hopkins plus. Today, that deal is laughable even just straight up mostly because of Brown's age.

Today, you can trade Hopkins for Juju plus. When Hopkins gets to 29/30 in two and three years, that deal will be laughable for a 24/25 year old Juju.

My goal is to keep the most amount of value on my team, measured in trade value because that is fairly comprehensive. Having a top players trade value evaporate due to retirement or age is a huge blow to total team value, and age related value decline is easy to anticipate.

Also would add, I'm trying to compete and get younger at the same time and not have that rebuild, so those mid season trades are harder because the acquiring team usually wants to move draft capital. I like to flip my 27 and 28 year olds for the next generation of studs before it is too late.

...but 2 and 3 years ago AB was 28-29. That's literally my point: the value cliff is closer to 29-30 than 27-28.

hoos89 wrote: ↑Fri May 24, 2019 8:15 am

Kittenmittens wrote: ↑Thu May 23, 2019 10:53 am

hoos89 wrote: ↑Thu May 23, 2019 8:58 am Maybe it depends on the league, but there will typically be a contending owner who is willing to pay up for a 28 year old WR in the middle of the season. Yes the market shrinks, but the value is still there. Antonio Brown, for instance, definitely could have been sold for top 5 value 3 years ago coming off a 136/1834/10 season.

In some ways this is the point I am trying to make. 2 and 3 years ago you could have traded AB for Hopkins plus. Today, that deal is laughable even just straight up mostly because of Brown's age.

Today, you can trade Hopkins for Juju plus. When Hopkins gets to 29/30 in two and three years, that deal will be laughable for a 24/25 year old Juju.

My goal is to keep the most amount of value on my team, measured in trade value because that is fairly comprehensive. Having a top players trade value evaporate due to retirement or age is a huge blow to total team value, and age related value decline is easy to anticipate.

Also would add, I'm trying to compete and get younger at the same time and not have that rebuild, so those mid season trades are harder because the acquiring team usually wants to move draft capital. I like to flip my 27 and 28 year olds for the next generation of studs before it is too late.

...but 2 and 3 years ago AB was 28-29. That's literally my point: the value cliff is closer to 29-30 than 27-28.

He's 30 right now, so 2 and 3 years ago he was 27 and 28.

If you walk too close to the edge of the value cliff you can get stuck with them, because everyone knows there is a value cliff. You can't expect your leaguemates to be shortsighted enough to pay full price for a 29 year old who they know is going to take an age-related value hit any second.