Ingram, Jones or Green??

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Re: Ingram, Jones or Green??

Postby knuckles50 » Fri Apr 29, 2011 7:57 pm

kris_kapsner wrote:
airlex wrote:
kris_kapsner wrote:I should add one more thing and I'm going to get raked over the coals for saying this. But, Julio Jones is more talented than Roddy White. So, though it may take a year or two for Jones to surpass Roddy in production, I think it's going to happen. I'm not saying that I'd trade White for Julio or anything. But, I would rather trade Roddy for the value that he would demand right now and buy Julio for the value that he is at right now.

It's a similar discussion to the one we've debated about Dez and Austin.
Disagree totally. Other than blocking, what does he do better?
Whenever I've watched Roddy White I've thought, "he's a very good WR, but not great." I know people here think otherwise and what I'm saying heavily goes against the grain. But, Roddy reminds me of a Reggie Wayne-like WR who is productive above his talent level. Some of it is due to situation with a quality QB and some of it is the situation of not having a more talented WR on the team. There is a reason that Roddy White was selected late in the 1st round and was the 6th WR taken in that draft. His talent wasn't elite, but very good. I don't think his talent level has changed at all, just his hard work in his route running. He also is fairly good with the ball in his hands, a little slippery even. But, he's shorter, lighter and slower than Julio Jones.

I guess I should ask you what talent, other than learning the nuances of running routes over his NFL career, make's Roddy White superior?

But, as I said, I certainly wouldn't trade Roddy White away for Julio Jones right now. But, I would trade Roddy White away for top 5 WR value and trade for Julio Jones at the early 20's value he's probably valued at right now. But, that's how I like to do things. Most probably wouldn't and that's ok. I just like trading players at their peak value and grabbing players who I feel have the strong potential to rise in value much higher than they currently are. These two fit the bill for me right now.
It's analysis like this (against the current paradigm) that is the reason I always come back here.
Team 1
12 team, 1/2 ppr 1 qb, 2 rbs, 3 wr, 1 flex, 1 te
QBs-Brees,Luck,Bridgewater
RBs- LeVeon,Ingram,R. Freeman,Thompson,Riddick,Conner,Walton,J. Jackson,Dixon
WRs- Evans,A Rob,Parker,Hurns,Sutton,Pettis,Moncrief,Treadwell,Sanu,Tavon,Dorsett,Carroo
TEs- Gronk,Kittle,Butt

Team 2
12 team 1 qb, 2rbs,v 3wrs, 1te
Qbs- Brees,Cam,Cousins,Jackson
Rbs- Gurley,Zeke,Kamara,McCaffery,Hunt,Shady
Wrs-A. Brown,Evans,C. Davis,Watkins,Goodwin,Woods,Washington,Treadwell,Jordy
Te- Gronk,Kittle,ASJ

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Re: Ingram, Jones or Green??

Postby cleanwillyb » Fri Apr 29, 2011 8:12 pm

knuckles50 wrote:...It's analysis like this (against the current paradigm) that is the reason I always come back here.
I agree, I want opinions, not consensus.
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QB: D. Brees, M. Stafford
RB: L. McCoy, D. Martin, J. Charles, R. Mendenhall, D. Wilson
WR: C. Johnson, H. Nicks, A. Green, J. Jones, R. Meachem
TE: J. Graham, J. Finley
DL: JPP, C. Johnson, J. Tuck
LB: S. Lee, J. Lauranaitis, C. McCarthy, J. Beason, D. Bishop,
CB: J. Haden, R. Sherman
S: P. Chung, M. Burnett, B. Pollard
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Re: Ingram, Jones or Green??

Postby thewhyterabbit » Fri Apr 29, 2011 11:04 pm

guys. julio went to the best situation, and it can be argued that he is a better talent than ingram and aj.

im a huge AJ supporter. and believe hes the better all around receiver. but julio is a monster. and will be the 1B in that atlanta offense. Atlanta is about to move toward featuring ryan alot more. so roddy will get his. and julio will get his. not to mention turner will get his while hes still around... julio is rookie of the year baring injury.

saints is a great situation for ingram. i just figured he would only be a two down back as long as bush is around... with him tweeting that... ingram might become the bellcow of that offense... which would be sick. the top 3 picks in fantasy are locks.
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Re: Ingram, Jones or Green??

Postby cleanwillyb » Fri Apr 29, 2011 11:13 pm

thewhyterabbit wrote:guys. julio went to the best situation, and it can be argued that he is a better talent than ingram and aj...
Did Julio go to a better situation than AJ? Yes.

Is Julio a better talent than AJ? Absolutely not.
16 team 0.5 PPR IDP dynasty league. 5th Season.
QB: D. Brees, M. Stafford
RB: L. McCoy, D. Martin, J. Charles, R. Mendenhall, D. Wilson
WR: C. Johnson, H. Nicks, A. Green, J. Jones, R. Meachem
TE: J. Graham, J. Finley
DL: JPP, C. Johnson, J. Tuck
LB: S. Lee, J. Lauranaitis, C. McCarthy, J. Beason, D. Bishop,
CB: J. Haden, R. Sherman
S: P. Chung, M. Burnett, B. Pollard
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Re: Ingram, Jones or Green??

Postby pntgvn2399 » Sat Apr 30, 2011 1:00 am

cleanwillyb wrote:
thewhyterabbit wrote:guys. julio went to the best situation, and it can be argued that he is a better talent than ingram and aj...

Did Julio go to a better situation than AJ? Yes
.

Is Julio a better talent than AJ? Absolutely not.
I may be in the minority but I disagree there..

Yes AJ is going to have a rookie QB..

Yes Julio is going to a loaded team with a solid QB..

HOWEVER, Julio is the #2 plain and simple and is not going to be the #1 until Roddy retires (if he stays in ATL)

AJ is the #1 in Cinncy right now.. Might not mean much RIGHT NOW but who is to say that Dalton doesn't come in and light it up like Bradford next year? That kid can play and AJ is a playmaker.. In this case people are acting like Julio is the better pick now where I think the opposite.. I want a #1 and possible top 10 WR, not a WR that isn't even #1 on his own team..
12 Team PPR IDP
Start 1 QB, 1 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 Flex 3-4-4 D
QB- P. Manning, Wilson, Carr
RB- McCoy, Foster, Ball, Vereen, Tate, Ivory, C. Michael, L Murray
WR- Megatron, Dez, Watkins, Gordon, Cooks, Quick, Nicks, Bowe, Shorts, M Wilson
TE- Cameron, Donnel, Green
DT- Jernigan
DE- Campbell, Vernon, Nincovich, Casey, Griffen
LB- David, Shazier, Smith, Tulloch, McClain, Riley, Collins, Alonzo (IR)
CB- Cason, Sherman, McCourty
S- Pollard, Landry, Chancellor, Mathieu, McDonald

12 Team PPR IDP
Start 1 QB, 1 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 Flex 3-4-4 D
QB- Kaepernick, Bortles
RB- Lynch, Bernard Vereen, J. Bell, Ivory, Michael, Robinson, L Murray
WR- Julio, Mi. Floyd, Crabtree, Woods, Lee, Nicks
TE- Graham, Green, Wright
DT- Joseph, Donald
DE- Quinn, C Jones, C Johnson, M Johnson, Clemons, Lawrence
LB-Worrilow, Dansby, Levy, Marshall , McClain, Bartu, Mauga, Alonzo (IR), Johnson (IR)
CB- Jospeh, Verner
S- Bethea, Jones, Blanton

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Re: Ingram, Jones or Green??

Postby bigcsr67 » Sat Apr 30, 2011 7:53 am

Like Skip said in an earlier post, situations change, talent does not. AJ Green is in a worse team situation now, but who knows what the future holds for the Bengals, and their QB situation. If they stink it up this year, they could land a guy like Luck in 2012, and they would have a great QB/WR/TE combo for years to come. There is no telling what will happen, but you can say that AJ is an elite talent, and he is the #1 already going into his rookie year. He will get his targets, and he will make things happen, because thats what talents like him do.

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Re: Ingram, Jones or Green??

Postby NoLogoNeeded » Sat Apr 30, 2011 12:39 pm

I traded Arian Foster for the the 1.01 and 1.02 in my dynasty's rc draft...I'm leaning towards AJ Green and Ingram...I'm trying to figure out how to trade for the 1.03 so I can hit the trifecta and take Jones too...
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Re: Ingram, Jones or Green??

Postby ekassor » Sat Apr 30, 2011 12:59 pm

kris_kapsner wrote:
airlex wrote:
kris_kapsner wrote:I should add one more thing and I'm going to get raked over the coals for saying this. But, Julio Jones is more talented than Roddy White. So, though it may take a year or two for Jones to surpass Roddy in production, I think it's going to happen. I'm not saying that I'd trade White for Julio or anything. But, I would rather trade Roddy for the value that he would demand right now and buy Julio for the value that he is at right now.

It's a similar discussion to the one we've debated about Dez and Austin.
Disagree totally. Other than blocking, what does he do better?
Whenever I've watched Roddy White I've thought, "he's a very good WR, but not great." I know people here think otherwise and what I'm saying heavily goes against the grain. But, Roddy reminds me of a Reggie Wayne-like WR who is productive above his talent level. Some of it is due to situation with a quality QB and some of it is the situation of not having a more talented WR on the team. There is a reason that Roddy White was selected late in the 1st round and was the 6th WR taken in that draft. His talent wasn't elite, but very good. I don't think his talent level has changed at all, just his hard work in his route running. He also is fairly good with the ball in his hands, a little slippery even. But, he's shorter, lighter and slower than Julio Jones.

I guess I should ask you what talent, other than learning the nuances of running routes over his NFL career, make's Roddy White superior?

But, as I said, I certainly wouldn't trade Roddy White away for Julio Jones right now. But, I would trade Roddy White away for top 5 WR value and trade for Julio Jones at the early 20's value he's probably valued at right now. But, that's how I like to do things. Most probably wouldn't and that's ok. I just like trading players at their peak value and grabbing players who I feel have the strong potential to rise in value much higher than they currently are. These two fit the bill for me right now.
I don't agree Kris. Firstly, I think there's more than enough room for Roddy to get his and for Julio to get his too. Gonzo is on the way out and the Roddy and Julio project to be 1&2 until Roddy hangs it up. Secondly, we have yet to see how Julio's game translates so moving Roddy out and trading for Julio is premature. Third, Roddy and Ryan have awesome chemistry and Ryan and Julio haven't been on the field together. Fourth, Roddy is extremely talented and has shown that he can produce all over the field. Julio may demonstrate he has more talent in the coming years, but Roddy has developed the skill and experience of a top flight veteran who can produce against double and triple teams and by the time Julio's skill and experience level rises to those levels Roddy's career will be winding down anyway.

I view the acquisition of Julio as creating a much bigger offense pie in ATL and Ryan may well develop into a Brady/Manning type player with these weapons.

The prospects for both Roddy and Julio (and Ryan) are very bright.

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Re: Ingram, Jones or Green??

Postby kris_kapsner » Sat Apr 30, 2011 5:02 pm

ekassor wrote:
I don't agree Kris. Firstly, I think there's more than enough room for Roddy to get his and for Julio to get his too. Gonzo is on the way out and the Roddy and Julio project to be 1&2 until Roddy hangs it up. Secondly, we have yet to see how Julio's game translates so moving Roddy out and trading for Julio is premature. Third, Roddy and Ryan have awesome chemistry and Ryan and Julio haven't been on the field together. Fourth, Roddy is extremely talented and has shown that he can produce all over the field. Julio may demonstrate he has more talent in the coming years, but Roddy has developed the skill and experience of a top flight veteran who can produce against double and triple teams and by the time Julio's skill and experience level rises to those levels Roddy's career will be winding down anyway.

I view the acquisition of Julio as creating a much bigger offense pie in ATL and Ryan may well develop into a Brady/Manning type player with these weapons.

The prospects for both Roddy and Julio (and Ryan) are very bright.
What you say is absolutely true. And, it is in line with main stream thought, which is fine by me. I'm just throwing out my opinion.

Let me ask you this though, if you owned Vincent Jackson at this time last year, should you have sold him for WR4 overall value? Yes, and I'm kicking myself for listening to everyone and not following my gut on that one because there were a lot of people who had him ranked there. Even the Nicks owner in my league did and I could have gotten Nicks plus something else. I wanted to and yet I let myself be talked out of it by other people. That's my fault, not theirs. But, my gut told me that his value had reached a point higher than his talent level. When that happens you should sell.

Just a few years ago Chad Johnson was the #1 ranked WR in both dynasty and redraft leagues. I owned him then and I felt that his talent level was exceeded by his ranking. I thought deeply about selling him. But, I let myself be talked out of it because of how high everyone was on him. I ended up barely getting WR20 or so value for him by the time I found a buyer while he was on his decline. He kept falling from there.

Now, I'm not saying that Roddy White is due an "85-like" depreciation slide. What I'm saying is that once a player's value has risen above his talent level, I personally think it's wise to sell. Roddy White fits that bill for me right now and the presence of Julio Jones just makes me even more convinced that White's value has nowhere to go but down from here. So, I would sell. There are some owners out there that have him ranked #1. If I owned Roddy I'd be searching for one of those guys in my league and selling now.

Just my opinion and it will certainly go against the grain. I realize that.

But, I will say this. People scoff at my main team below. And yes, I've pulled out some incredible trade deals to get it to that point. But, most of how I built that team came from deep analysis of player value verses their talent level. Following the strategy I've stated above about Roddy White has served me so well I can't even describe it to you without writing a book. Over and over I have sold players at their peak value, or sometimes before their peak. But, ultimately, their value drops far lower than what I sold them for. And, the pieces I got in return were swinging up. In many cases it didn't take long for that single piece that I sold to drop below the value of just one of the "rising value" pieces that I traded for.

Knowing when or when not to make such trades will ultimately determine whether or not you build a true dynasty team in your league. I haven't been perfect. I'm still kicking myself for buying Dominic Davis the offseason before he fell into oblivion and other such moves like that. But, I've been blessed in far more of those deals than not and it has resulted in a power house team.

Just food for thought. I completely understand that this opinion might go against the grain.
16 team PPR Est. 2002 (Champion: 2007, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2016)
Start: QB, 2-4WR, 2-3RB, 1-2TE, K, D
QB: Russell Wilson, Zach Wilson
RB: Barkley, Mixon, Chubb, Hunt, G. Bernard
WR: Adams, Metcalf, Callaway, Shepard, Watkins, Fuller, T. Williams, Proche
TE: Kelce, Pitts, Njoku, Seals-Jones
K: Gay
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Re: Ingram, Jones or Green??

Postby Team Canada » Sat Apr 30, 2011 5:09 pm

Mind if use that stratergy then kris??
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10 team $250 cap, 0.5 ppr- QB, 2RB, 2WR, TE, flex
QB- Brady ($18/2yrs),Ponder ($5/1yr)
RB- CJ ($25/3yrs), AP($25/2yrs), Spiller ($15/2yrs), Martin ($10/4yrs), L.James($2/4yrs)
WR- Dem Thomas ($41/1yr), Nicks ($20/3yrs), Fitzgerald ($20/2yrs), Tampa Mike ($18/2yrs), Jeffery ($6/3yrs), V.Brown($5/1yr)
TE- Graham ($15/2yrs), Brandon Myers ($1/1yr), Dennis Pitta ($1/1yr)
Picks- 1.1, 1.2, 1.4, 1.5, 1.9, 2.9

12 team ppr, QB, RB, WR, TE, 4 flexes
QB- Arod, Fitz, Gabbert
RB- Lynch, Spiller, Ridley, Hunter, Gerhart, Goodson, Benson
WR- Fitz, White, Britt, Maclin, Vjax, Little, Jean, Jenkins, Shipley, Easley, Edelman, Gettis, A.Holmes, Lockette, Morgan, R.Wallace
TE- V.Davis, Stocker, J.Thomas, DJ Williams

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Re: Ingram, Jones or Green??

Postby kris_kapsner » Sat Apr 30, 2011 5:14 pm

Team Canada wrote:Mind if use that stratergy then kris??
That's the only reason I bother writing that much, to lend a hand if people would like to go that direction with their strategy. There are a lot of strategies that have brought championships to a lot of great owners in this forum. I by no means am saying that "I am the greatest and know everything." But, it is a strategy that has worked very well for me in the past.
16 team PPR Est. 2002 (Champion: 2007, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2016)
Start: QB, 2-4WR, 2-3RB, 1-2TE, K, D
QB: Russell Wilson, Zach Wilson
RB: Barkley, Mixon, Chubb, Hunt, G. Bernard
WR: Adams, Metcalf, Callaway, Shepard, Watkins, Fuller, T. Williams, Proche
TE: Kelce, Pitts, Njoku, Seals-Jones
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Re: Ingram, Jones or Green??

Postby kris_kapsner » Sat Apr 30, 2011 5:20 pm

Team Canada wrote:Mind if use that stratergy then kris??
I should add one more thing. Once you've built a team up with an incredible wealth, there does become a moment where the pendulum does swing towards it not being necessary to try to sell your players at their peak. You'll know when that time comes. But, in general, one day you'll look at your team and say, "well, I know these two players are at their peak right now. But, is there really any value left for me to add to my team by trading them away at their peak?" If the answer to that becomes "no", then you have reached a true dynasty status with your team. But, until that answer is "no", I'd keep trading them away on your path to building that team to greatness.
16 team PPR Est. 2002 (Champion: 2007, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2016)
Start: QB, 2-4WR, 2-3RB, 1-2TE, K, D
QB: Russell Wilson, Zach Wilson
RB: Barkley, Mixon, Chubb, Hunt, G. Bernard
WR: Adams, Metcalf, Callaway, Shepard, Watkins, Fuller, T. Williams, Proche
TE: Kelce, Pitts, Njoku, Seals-Jones
K: Gay
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Re: Ingram, Jones or Green??

Postby repkllrs » Sat Apr 30, 2011 5:21 pm

I have never even heard of someone who had Vincent Jackson ranked as the #4 overall reciever at any time. I owned him in 2009 and would have kept him for 2010 before he started head-butting management, but he never broke the top ten in my opinion.
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Re: Ingram, Jones or Green??

Postby kris_kapsner » Sat Apr 30, 2011 5:25 pm

repkllrs wrote:I have never even heard of someone who had Vincent Jackson ranked as the #4 overall reciever at any time. I owned him in 2009 and would have kept him for 2010 before he started head-butting management, but he never broke the top ten in my opinion.
Perhaps in your opinion, yes, you are right. And, I don't disagree with you.

But, there are owners on the forum that had him ranked that high. There were owners in my league that had him ranked that high. The "official" rankings on the main page of this forum had him ranked that high. Footballguys.com had him ranked that high. I could have found you a half dozen websites that had Vincent Jackson that high just 12 months ago, prior to the hold out of his looking like it was going to go bad.
16 team PPR Est. 2002 (Champion: 2007, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2016)
Start: QB, 2-4WR, 2-3RB, 1-2TE, K, D
QB: Russell Wilson, Zach Wilson
RB: Barkley, Mixon, Chubb, Hunt, G. Bernard
WR: Adams, Metcalf, Callaway, Shepard, Watkins, Fuller, T. Williams, Proche
TE: Kelce, Pitts, Njoku, Seals-Jones
K: Gay
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Re: Ingram, Jones or Green??

Postby ekassor » Sat Apr 30, 2011 5:47 pm

kris_kapsner wrote:
ekassor wrote:
I don't agree Kris. Firstly, I think there's more than enough room for Roddy to get his and for Julio to get his too. Gonzo is on the way out and the Roddy and Julio project to be 1&2 until Roddy hangs it up. Secondly, we have yet to see how Julio's game translates so moving Roddy out and trading for Julio is premature. Third, Roddy and Ryan have awesome chemistry and Ryan and Julio haven't been on the field together. Fourth, Roddy is extremely talented and has shown that he can produce all over the field. Julio may demonstrate he has more talent in the coming years, but Roddy has developed the skill and experience of a top flight veteran who can produce against double and triple teams and by the time Julio's skill and experience level rises to those levels Roddy's career will be winding down anyway.

I view the acquisition of Julio as creating a much bigger offense pie in ATL and Ryan may well develop into a Brady/Manning type player with these weapons.

The prospects for both Roddy and Julio (and Ryan) are very bright.
What you say is absolutely true. And, it is in line with main stream thought, which is fine by me. I'm just throwing out my opinion.

Let me ask you this though, if you owned Vincent Jackson at this time last year, should you have sold him for WR4 overall value? Yes, and I'm kicking myself for listening to everyone and not following my gut on that one because there were a lot of people who had him ranked there. Even the Nicks owner in my league did and I could have gotten Nicks plus something else. I wanted to and yet I let myself be talked out of it by other people. That's my fault, not theirs. But, my gut told me that his value had reached a point higher than his talent level. When that happens you should sell.

Just a few years ago Chad Johnson was the #1 ranked WR in both dynasty and redraft leagues. I owned him then and I felt that his talent level was exceeded by his ranking. I thought deeply about selling him. But, I let myself be talked out of it because of how high everyone was on him. I ended up barely getting WR20 or so value for him by the time I found a buyer while he was on his decline. He kept falling from there.

Now, I'm not saying that Roddy White is due an "85-like" depreciation slide. What I'm saying is that once a player's value has risen above his talent level, I personally think it's wise to sell. Roddy White fits that bill for me right now and the presence of Julio Jones just makes me even more convinced that White's value has nowhere to go but down from here. So, I would sell. There are some owners out there that have him ranked #1. If I owned Roddy I'd be searching for one of those guys in my league and selling now.

Just my opinion and it will certainly go against the grain. I realize that.

But, I will say this. People scoff at my main team below. And yes, I've pulled out some incredible trade deals to get it to that point. But, most of how I built that team came from deep analysis of player value verses their talent level. Following the strategy I've stated above about Roddy White has served me so well I can't even describe it to you without writing a book. Over and over I have sold players at their peak value, or sometimes before their peak. But, ultimately, their value drops far lower than what I sold them for. And, the pieces I got in return were swinging up. In many cases it didn't take long for that single piece that I sold to drop below the value of just one of the "rising value" pieces that I traded for.

Knowing when or when not to make such trades will ultimately determine whether or not you build a true dynasty team in your league. I haven't been perfect. I'm still kicking myself for buying Dominic Davis the offseason before he fell into oblivion and other such moves like that. But, I've been blessed in far more of those deals than not and it has resulted in a power house team.

Just food for thought. I completely understand that this opinion might go against the grain.
Obviously you've made some astute trades to build that Team, but at the very least this strategy is premature if you want to get full value for Roddy, as right now Julio has a bunch of Roddy owners looking for the exits.

But moreover, I'll stick by my guns and call this one a false alarm. I think Roddy will be fine. I don't think Vjax and his bizarre and unlikely war with SD ownership equates, and btw when he finally did come back when he was healthy he was the best WR in the NFL. Also, the time to dump Chad Johnson was when he became a number, I'll wholeheartedly agree that.

But as far as Roddy goes, I think you are articulating a strategy to trade high end WR talent that has reached peak value, moreso than making a case that Julio will eat into his game. Your theory should also uggest its time to move AJ, but you rbably think he has another year in him before he needs to be moved.

I agree that Roddy doesn't have a lot of upside. But I don't expect upside, I expect consistency. I won't agree with the idea that he can't sit on this plateau and produce top 5 numbers for another 3 years.

I guess I'm saying your strategy is sound, but timing is everything and Roddy will give you a great 2011 and great trade value for 2012.


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