2019 1st vs 2020 1st

[Detroitcity]

12 team PPR league

I'm in a situation with one of my teams where I won the title 2 years ago and then barely limped into the playoffs last year and lost 1st round. My team has a lot of declining assets (Rodgers, Brady, Gronk, Baldwin, L Miller, Ingram, McCoy, AP, D. Walker) but I do still have some stud young talent with guys like D Adams and Tyreek Hill, and can still potentially be competitive and make the playoffs in 2019.

I've been trying to dump some of my older assets for 2020 draft picks because I think that class could be a game changer and has much more talent that the 2019 draft.

I currently have the 1.5 pick in 2019 rookie draft. One of the owners has offered me their 2020 1st for the 2019 1.5 pick. This team finished 5-8 last year based on luck, and was really a bottom 2 team in the league. The owner also has 2 other 2019 1sts, so this trade would give him 3 (to either stock up on guys in the draft or potentially flip the picks for production). At the moment, his team looks like a lock to be bottom 3 again, but that could change quickly

In my situation, would you trade the 1.5 pick for a 2020 1st?

[Gator Sens]

I would much rather have a 1st in 2020 then this year. I would ask for something else coming back with the pick though since yours is a known top 5 pick. Does he have any intriguing younger players with upside?

[Mjvb5]

nah I wouldn't trade a top 5 this year for a first next year on the hope that next year is better (Note: I don't like this years class). As right now we're projecting next years class assuming everyone declares(Harris and Love last year), no one regresses(Love), and no one gets hurt(love again, man I feel bad for this kid). generally for us all it takes is two or three guys opting to go back and there goes your depth in that class. I'd want a 2020 first and at least a decent 2nd

[Jigga94]

This isn't a great class but the 5th pick is still very valuable. Even if his is the 5th pick next year, I'd still want some return for my time

[jwb32]

The 2020 would need to be a guaranteed top 3 for this to be of interest. And even then I'd want a small piece added. And a LOT can happen to turn a bottom dweller into a fringe playoff team, especially with three 2019 1sts. So you could easily be trading the 2019 1.05 for the 2020 1.07. No thanks.

[Goddard]

I know people say this isn't a great class, but they're judging that based on the RBs. It doesn't mean you can't get a stud at 1.05 and no way I'm trading that for a pick a year away where I don't know for sure where it might end up.

[chalorpas]

I would probably do it if he added a 2020 2nd on top. I agree that the other guy needs to add something. With that said, I am all-in on the 2020 class. Sure, there is still some unknown with the 2020 class, but it will almost positively be better than the 2019 class. There is a reason that on the devy rankings, 10 out of the 11 top prospects are from the 2020 class, with 1 out of 11 being in the 2019 class. This is just my personal theory but I suspect there won't be a ton of draft eligible prospects in 2020 who will wait until 2021 to declare since 2021 will be the lockout year. Besides your 1.05, I would be looking to turn your older players into 2020 picks.

[The.Big.Spank]

I would probably do it if he added a 2020 2nd on top. I agree that the other guy needs to add something. With that said, I am all-in on the 2020 class. Sure, there is still some unknown with the 2020 class, but it will almost positively be better than the 2019 class. There is a reason that on the devy rankings, 10 out of the 11 top prospects are from the 2020 class, with 1 out of 11 being in the 2019 class. This is just my personal theory but I suspect there won't be a ton of draft eligible prospects in 2020 who will wait until 2021 to declare since 2021 will be the lockout year. Besides your 1.05, I would be looking to turn your older players into 2020 picks.

An excellent point that I have not heard brought up before. Thanks

[The.Big.Spank]

I am with the crowd on this one. I want something added. Maybe you give him your second next year and he gives you a late first this year in addition to the first round swap of picks already on the table.

Most people, including me, are wrong about where a team will end up next year. Lots of bad teams tend to sneak into the playoffs and make a run. I have never been one of them mind you. I'm the guy the sob beats to surprise everyone. Like this year. Sometimes I hate this game.

[hudini33]

This years picks are always more valuable than next years, even if this class looks thin.

[Needalife]

I know people say this isn't a great class, but they're judging that based on the RBs. It doesn't mean you can't get a stud at 1.05 and no way I'm trading that for a pick a year away where I don't know for sure where it might end up.

This ^. All of the 2019 hate is based on QB/RB. I think the WR crop could be 9 or 10 deep when all is said and done with Senior Bowl, combine and landing spots. I also think there are some gems at TE.

The RBs may not jump off the page atop the draft like ADP, Zek and Barkley, but they could become studs just as easily as other prospects that many weren't all that into (Kamara, Hunt, Kerryon, DJ).

[BucFanJKE]

I know people say this isn't a great class, but they're judging that based on the RBs. It doesn't mean you can't get a stud at 1.05 and no way I'm trading that for a pick a year away where I don't know for sure where it might end up.

This ^. All of the 2019 hate is based on QB/RB. I think the WR crop could be 9 or 10 deep when all is said and done with Senior Bowl, combine and landing spots. I also think there are some gems at TE.

The RBs may not jump off the page atop the draft like ADP, Zek and Barkley, but they could become studs just as easily as other prospects that many weren't all that into (Kamara, Hunt, Kerryon, DJ).

Also of this mindset. I actually like this class. It appears on the surface that this could be one of the deepest WR classes since 2014.

[Detroitcity]

Yeah to be clear, I didn't say the 2019 class was terrible, I just think the 2020 class will be that much better (similar to the 2014 or 2017 classes).

The 2019 class reminds me a lot of the 2013 class (Tavon, Gio, Lacy, Ball, Bell, Hopkins, C Patterson, Michael, Lattimore). There will definitely be a few studs in the 1st round of rookie drafts, but it's a pretty big crap shoot. In my opinion the 2019 doesn't have a real consensus 1.1 pick, no "surefire" studs, and while there are some nice WR's, I also see a lot of landmines in the 1st round. In this WR class I see more guys comparable to say Treadwell, Doctson, Boyd, K Benjamin, S. Shepard vs guys like Evans, Cooper, Cooks, C. Davis, Julio, etc. I don't see a WR or RB right now that I'd put money on to go in the top 15 in the NFL draft. QB class is pretty poor and while I like guys like Noah Fant and Irv Smith, I don't necessarily think they are "generational" talent type TE's.

My rationale for considering the trade was this:
- it's unlikely that whoever I take at 1.6 will drastically improve my chances of making the playoffs this year
- gives me 2 options going forward, 1) stay competitive this year and try to win again and then I have 2- 2020 1sts to fall back on for rebuild retool purposes 2) Start my retool/rebuild now and continue to load up on 2020 picks and try to add a nice young core around Adams/Hill

[Vcize]

I would probably do it if he added a 2020 2nd on top. I agree that the other guy needs to add something. With that said, I am all-in on the 2020 class. Sure, there is still some unknown with the 2020 class, but it will almost positively be better than the 2019 class. There is a reason that on the devy rankings, 10 out of the 11 top prospects are from the 2020 class, with 1 out of 11 being in the 2019 class. This is just my personal theory but I suspect there won't be a ton of draft eligible prospects in 2020 who will wait until 2021 to declare since 2021 will be the lockout year. Besides your 1.05, I would be looking to turn your older players into 2020 picks.

I don't disagree with your overall point but you're misreading the devy rankings. You're right that there is a reason no one in the 2019 draft is on the devy rankings....it's because anyone in the 2019 draft is not eligible for the devy rankings. By definition devy players are players who are not in the next draft.

The rankings list only their draft eligible year which is why you see one 2019 guy in there, which is Bryan Edwards who has declared he's staying in school another year hence his devy eligibility. Metcalf, Harry, AJB, etc etc are not eligible for the devy rankings because they're on the rookie rankings instead.