Allen Robinson value?

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bills2
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Allen Robinson value?

Postby bills2 » Thu Feb 22, 2018 9:43 am

Thinking about trying to trade for Robinson this offseason and maybe get him for less. What do you guys think his value is coming off the injury?

ps. Hi, just signed up for the board. I'm in two dynasty leagues, one is starting fresh this offseason and I might be adding a third. Plus I get real board at work, so I might be around a lot.

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Johnny Canuck
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Re: Allen Robinson value?

Postby Johnny Canuck » Thu Feb 22, 2018 10:17 am

His value is ultimately in the eye of the beholder. There are a ton of variables to consider with this player, and it seems that most of the dynasty community is split on him, and for good reason. His career has been a Jekyll and Hyde of sorts.

2015
While he did have one amazing fantasy season in 2015, most of his stats from this season came in garbage time, with Bortles just throwing up a prayer/air raid style late in the 4th (remember the Jags were absolute garbage in 2015).

2016
In 2016 Arob received similar target/opportunity numbers to 2015, but was a complete dud, ending up as a WR3 (WR #31 to be exact). Although he had a bad year, this is mostly blamed on Bortles who played very poor throughout the season.

- So his good season is disputed due to garbage time, while his bad season is disputed due to bad QB play.

2017
Then there's the injury to consider. He should recover fine by all accounts, but there's always a risk that previous ACL injury can sap some explosiveness.

2018
The question here is where does he play? It sounded like it's a foregone conclusion that he will be back on the Jags, which will bad for his fantasy value imo. The Jags will continue to have Bortles, and they have far more receiving weapons than they had in 2015 (when Arob was the only show in town).

NTM in both 2015 & 2016 Arob had 150 targets, however, the team is more run/defense based with the additions of Fournette and Ramsey/etc, and no wide receiver had over 96 targets on the year for 2017. If Arob doesn't get around 150 targets in 2018, there is almost zero chance he'll be in the top 12 WRs. Bortles isn't accurate enough to give Arob the efficiency numbers he'd need to be a top WR with lower target volume. It's not like Arob is efficient either, he has a career catch rate of 53% (although it might likely be 5% higher with a better QB, but even a 58% catch rate isn't great).

The flip side is, now that they have these weapons in lee, westbrook, cole, etc. do they just let Arob walk? which could be great for Arob if he goes to a dream scenario like San Fran.

Essentially, you're gonna have to come to your own conclusions. At least he's young so that's a positive. But is he the player we saw in 2015? Or the player we saw in 2016? Does he fully recover from his injury? Is he back on the Jags? This player has so many questions it's hard to place a value. He's the type that will either boom or bust imo. Watch the tape and see if you're a Arob believer or not I suppose.

If you want a more defined valuation, maybe give us some players to compare to? His ceiling is extremely high but the risk factors associated with him are also high, making it hard to see him actually reach it. If you want a draft pick valuation I'd prob have him at the 1.03 behind Barkley and Guice, or two middle firsts.
Last edited by Johnny Canuck on Thu Feb 22, 2018 10:30 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Allen Robinson value?

Postby JJRules » Thu Feb 22, 2018 10:21 am

Johnny Canuck wrote:
Thu Feb 22, 2018 10:17 am
If you want a draft pick valuation I'd prob have him at the 1.03 behind Barkley and Guice, or two middle firsts.
And that's about what it would cost for me to move him.
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Re: Allen Robinson value?

Postby bills2 » Thu Feb 22, 2018 10:30 am

Thanks guys. I'm in the middle of a pretty serious rebuild and have a bunch of picks. I have 1.04, 1.06, and 1.07, then five in the second. I don't really want to give up any of the firsts besides maybe the 1.07, but I'm using that to try and get 1.02 or 1.01. Pretty desperately need some rbs.

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Re: Allen Robinson value?

Postby slaughterrt » Thu Feb 22, 2018 12:20 pm

If you are rebuilding, then he is prob a hold

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Re: Allen Robinson value?

Postby uscman » Thu Feb 22, 2018 1:36 pm

I have him around the 1.02 or 1.03.
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Re: Allen Robinson value?

Postby ESKAY » Thu Feb 22, 2018 2:42 pm

Since you are new to this room I have to tell you he is one of the guys everyone in here loves. Or I should say overvalue. Also overvalued in this room is Sammy and Landry. Just my opinion.

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Re: Allen Robinson value?

Postby PercyR1 » Thu Feb 22, 2018 3:08 pm

ESKAY wrote:
Thu Feb 22, 2018 2:42 pm
Since you are new to this room I have to tell you he is one of the guys everyone in here loves. Or I should say overvalue. Also overvalued in this room is Sammy and Landry. Just my opinion.

haha, most over valued piece of crap on this forum is Amari cooper hands down hahahahaha

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Re: Allen Robinson value?

Postby jeffster » Thu Feb 22, 2018 3:13 pm

Welcome! I agree with the 1.02-3 range price tag. I bought him and a 3rd in a PPR league for CMC, and was happy with that.

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Re: Allen Robinson value?

Postby greenbird » Thu Feb 22, 2018 3:15 pm

PercyR1 wrote:
Thu Feb 22, 2018 3:08 pm
ESKAY wrote:
Thu Feb 22, 2018 2:42 pm
Since you are new to this room I have to tell you he is one of the guys everyone in here loves. Or I should say overvalue. Also overvalued in this room is Sammy and Landry. Just my opinion.

haha, most over valued piece of crap on this forum is Amari cooper hands down hahahahaha
Cooper is spot on.

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Re: Allen Robinson value?

Postby topher » Thu Feb 22, 2018 4:23 pm

For reference, I just traded Freeman and J Matt for A Rob and the 3.05....Pretty even trade I'd say, but I like the upside of A Rob more.

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Re: Allen Robinson value?

Postby Vcize » Thu Feb 22, 2018 5:02 pm

ESKAY wrote:
Thu Feb 22, 2018 2:42 pm
Since you are new to this room I have to tell you he is one of the guys everyone in here loves. Or I should say overvalue. Also overvalued in this room is Sammy and Landry. Just my opinion.
At least Landry actually produces. If we're talking about fantasy points, at least.
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Re: Allen Robinson value?

Postby PercyR1 » Thu Feb 22, 2018 5:07 pm

Vcize wrote:
Thu Feb 22, 2018 5:02 pm
ESKAY wrote:
Thu Feb 22, 2018 2:42 pm
Since you are new to this room I have to tell you he is one of the guys everyone in here loves. Or I should say overvalue. Also overvalued in this room is Sammy and Landry. Just my opinion.
At least Landry actually produces. If we're talking about fantasy points, at least.
I love Landry - even more with him in dolphins town for 1 more year

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Bot101
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Re: Allen Robinson value?

Postby Bot101 » Thu Feb 22, 2018 5:12 pm

Im trying to trade for him in my league in sig. His owner will only sell if the Jags tag him and he isnt going to SF. Im having a hard time figuring out what to give up.

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kilgorextrout
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Re: Allen Robinson value?

Postby kilgorextrout » Thu Feb 22, 2018 5:15 pm

Johnny Canuck wrote:
Thu Feb 22, 2018 10:17 am
His value is ultimately in the eye of the beholder. There are a ton of variables to consider with this player, and it seems that most of the dynasty community is split on him, and for good reason. His career has been a Jekyll and Hyde of sorts.

2015
While he did have one amazing fantasy season in 2015, most of his stats from this season came in garbage time, with Bortles just throwing up a prayer/air raid style late in the 4th (remember the Jags were absolute garbage in 2015).

2016
In 2016 Arob received similar target/opportunity numbers to 2015, but was a complete dud, ending up as a WR3 (WR #31 to be exact). Although he had a bad year, this is mostly blamed on Bortles who played very poor throughout the season.

- So his good season is disputed due to garbage time, while his bad season is disputed due to bad QB play.

2017
Then there's the injury to consider. He should recover fine by all accounts, but there's always a risk that previous ACL injury can sap some explosiveness.

2018
The question here is where does he play? It sounded like it's a foregone conclusion that he will be back on the Jags, which will bad for his fantasy value imo. The Jags will continue to have Bortles, and they have far more receiving weapons than they had in 2015 (when Arob was the only show in town).

NTM in both 2015 & 2016 Arob had 150 targets, however, the team is more run/defense based with the additions of Fournette and Ramsey/etc, and no wide receiver had over 96 targets on the year for 2017. If Arob doesn't get around 150 targets in 2018, there is almost zero chance he'll be in the top 12 WRs. Bortles isn't accurate enough to give Arob the efficiency numbers he'd need to be a top WR with lower target volume. It's not like Arob is efficient either, he has a career catch rate of 53% (although it might likely be 5% higher with a better QB, but even a 58% catch rate isn't great).

The flip side is, now that they have these weapons in lee, westbrook, cole, etc. do they just let Arob walk? which could be great for Arob if he goes to a dream scenario like San Fran.

Essentially, you're gonna have to come to your own conclusions. At least he's young so that's a positive. But is he the player we saw in 2015? Or the player we saw in 2016? Does he fully recover from his injury? Is he back on the Jags? This player has so many questions it's hard to place a value. He's the type that will either boom or bust imo. Watch the tape and see if you're a Arob believer or not I suppose.

If you want a more defined valuation, maybe give us some players to compare to? His ceiling is extremely high but the risk factors associated with him are also high, making it hard to see him actually reach it. If you want a draft pick valuation I'd prob have him at the 1.03 behind Barkley and Guice, or two middle firsts.
This breakdown is incredibly informative and uncommon on this forum. Thanks for your your time and work.
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