Thielen value

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The.Big.Spank
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Re: Thielen value

Postby The.Big.Spank » Thu Feb 01, 2018 1:42 pm

HughHoney wrote: Thu Feb 01, 2018 12:52 pm
The.Big.Spank wrote: Thu Feb 01, 2018 12:33 pm
Goddard wrote: Thu Feb 01, 2018 11:31 am I'd take the 1.04, but seems like fair value.
This just isn’t true. Thielen was on the field for 93% of the Vikings offensive snaps. He played more snaps than Diggs in every week they both played except week 14 when Diggs had one more snap.
Yes, but this year was an abberation because Treadwell blows and Diggs was hurt as well as Cooks. His targets were unsustainable even if he was an outside receiver. Way less likely as he plays the slot. Sorry for the confusion.
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Re: Thielen value

Postby HughHoney » Thu Feb 01, 2018 2:10 pm

The.Big.Spank wrote: Thu Feb 01, 2018 1:42 pm
HughHoney wrote: Thu Feb 01, 2018 12:52 pm
This just isn’t true. Thielen was on the field for 93% of the Vikings offensive snaps. He played more snaps than Diggs in every week they both played except week 14 when Diggs had one more snap.
Yes, but this year was an abberation because Treadwell blows and Diggs was hurt as well as Cooks. His targets were unsustainable even if he was an outside receiver. Way less likely as he plays the slot. Sorry for the confusion.
Thielen isn’t a slot receiver that only plays in 3 WR sets though. He’s always on the field and plays outside too (read that 41% of his snaps were from the slot). Targets may very well decline and likely will but not because of his slot role.

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Re: Thielen value

Postby lukkynumber13 » Thu Feb 01, 2018 3:17 pm

HughHoney wrote: Thu Feb 01, 2018 2:10 pm
The.Big.Spank wrote: Thu Feb 01, 2018 1:42 pm
HughHoney wrote: Thu Feb 01, 2018 12:52 pm
This just isn’t true. Thielen was on the field for 93% of the Vikings offensive snaps. He played more snaps than Diggs in every week they both played except week 14 when Diggs had one more snap.
Yes, but this year was an abberation because Treadwell blows and Diggs was hurt as well as Cooks. His targets were unsustainable even if he was an outside receiver. Way less likely as he plays the slot. Sorry for the confusion.
Thielen isn’t a slot receiver that only plays in 3 WR sets though. He’s always on the field and plays outside too (read that 41% of his snaps were from the slot). Targets may very well decline and likely will but not because of his slot role.
Correct. Just like Baldwin, Fitzgerald, and Landry. Sometimes a slot receiver can be his team's best (or 2nd best) receiver
TEAM A - 12T (22 R/U, 20 R/U, 19 R/U, 18 Champ, 17 R/U)
HERBERT, Baker
BIJAN/KAMARA/MIXON, A Jones
HILL/AJB/DK/G WILSON/D Adams, Pittman, Z Flowers, Evans
KITTLE
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TEAM B - 16T, SF, TEP (22 R/U)
HURTS/MINSHEW, Cousins, D Jones
JT/JACOBS, Mostert, Gus E
HILL/MCLAURIN/DEEBO
KELCE/KITTLE, LaPorta
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TEAM C - 14T, SF (Joined in 22)
GENO
HENRY/A JONES, Gus E
HILL/DIGGS/K ALLEN
WALLER
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TEAM D - 14T, 1QB (Joined in 22)
MAHOMES, Goff
BIJAN/BREECE/POLLARD
CHASE/DIGGS/G WILSON/AIYUK, DJM, Pittman
KITTLE, Goedert
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TEAM E - 14T, SF, 2TE (Started in 22)
MAHOMES/T-LAW, Carr
BIJAN/CMC/SAQUON/POLLARD, Hall
HILL/AIYUK/EVANS/GODWIN, Hollywood, Thielen
MCBRIDE/ENGRAM, Goedert, Chig
/
TEAM F - 16T (Joined in 23)
R WILSON, Minshew
SAQUON/KAMARA/MIXON, Monty
DIGGS/GODWIN/AIYUK/EVANS, Thielen, A Cooper
KELCE, Schultz
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TEAM G - 12T, SF & TEP (Joined in 23)
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Re: Thielen value

Postby Shoreline Steamers » Thu Feb 01, 2018 3:32 pm

1.04 is not unreasonable. If the other owner balks, at least you don't have to feel like you were low-balling for the pick.
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Re: Thielen value

Postby Broncopain » Thu Feb 01, 2018 4:32 pm

I think the 1.04 is great value for thielan. I just received an offer of Gordon and Powell for my thielan. I declined only on the uncertainty of Gordon and being burned in the past. Not sure I made a good decision there.

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Re: Thielen value

Postby cazzie33 » Thu Feb 01, 2018 4:59 pm

Lazy analysis by the "slot receiver" shamer.

All you had to do was look up percentage of plays the last 1 1/2 seasons or actually have watched any one of their games.

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Re: Thielen value

Postby lukkynumber13 » Thu Feb 01, 2018 5:48 pm

cazzie33 wrote: Thu Feb 01, 2018 4:59 pm Lazy analysis by the "slot receiver" shamer.

All you had to do was look up percentage of plays the last 1 1/2 seasons or actually have watched any one of their games.
Haha for real.
TEAM A - 12T (22 R/U, 20 R/U, 19 R/U, 18 Champ, 17 R/U)
HERBERT, Baker
BIJAN/KAMARA/MIXON, A Jones
HILL/AJB/DK/G WILSON/D Adams, Pittman, Z Flowers, Evans
KITTLE
/
TEAM B - 16T, SF, TEP (22 R/U)
HURTS/MINSHEW, Cousins, D Jones
JT/JACOBS, Mostert, Gus E
HILL/MCLAURIN/DEEBO
KELCE/KITTLE, LaPorta
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TEAM C - 14T, SF (Joined in 22)
GENO
HENRY/A JONES, Gus E
HILL/DIGGS/K ALLEN
WALLER
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TEAM D - 14T, 1QB (Joined in 22)
MAHOMES, Goff
BIJAN/BREECE/POLLARD
CHASE/DIGGS/G WILSON/AIYUK, DJM, Pittman
KITTLE, Goedert
/
TEAM E - 14T, SF, 2TE (Started in 22)
MAHOMES/T-LAW, Carr
BIJAN/CMC/SAQUON/POLLARD, Hall
HILL/AIYUK/EVANS/GODWIN, Hollywood, Thielen
MCBRIDE/ENGRAM, Goedert, Chig
/
TEAM F - 16T (Joined in 23)
R WILSON, Minshew
SAQUON/KAMARA/MIXON, Monty
DIGGS/GODWIN/AIYUK/EVANS, Thielen, A Cooper
KELCE, Schultz
/
TEAM G - 12T, SF & TEP (Joined in 23)
HERBERT/TUA, Kyler
BIJAN/MIXON, Spears, J Warren
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Re: Thielen value

Postby Minnkota » Thu Feb 01, 2018 10:17 pm

jwb32 wrote: Thu Feb 01, 2018 1:23 pm Thielen had 143 targets.....that is an elite level number. I just don't see that as sustainable. I'd value him in 1.07-1.08 range.
I actually do feel like his numbers are sustainable. I would buy him all day long at 1.07-1.08. This dude is the real deal.
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Re: Thielen value

Postby Dunville » Fri Feb 02, 2018 7:03 am

I'd rather have Thielen but feel rookie fever brings the value to the 1.04 side.

With regards to the percentage and stats of thicken I CBA looking them up but I know from watching some games this season is that he gets moved around which is great for his scoring potential, spending some time time in the slot gives him a very safe floor in PPR, then the upside for big plays and TDs when moved outside and what not.

So to summarise a WR with a safe floor and big play/TD upside?
Ill take that all day long
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QB Stroud Tua
RB Bijan, Gibbs, Jamaal, CEH, Allgeier, Brown
WR Hill, JJ, AJB, Keenan, ReedReed, Thielen, Boyd, Iosivas, Tucker
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Re: Thielen value

Postby dhanks91 » Fri Feb 02, 2018 10:08 am

Fair value but I think I’d take Thielen here. I agree that this season is unlikely sustainable, but whoever’s playing qb in Minny next year is going to see a guy who always seemed to be open when they needed a first or when they were in the red zone


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