The Age Cliff: Some Win-now WR Buys
-
- Starter
- Posts: 592
- Joined: Wed Jun 29, 2016 10:02 pm
The Age Cliff: Some Win-now WR Buys
Just wanted to get a sense of when you all believe WRs fall off "the age cliff". Seems that as the old-guard (e.g. Julio, AB, AJG, Hilton) approaches age 30 we're seeing an optimal time to buy. Is this a widely accepted idea in dynasty? or should you just always hold youth (who retain their value more in down years). Trying to figure out how to best "go for it"
8-team SF / 0.5 PPR / TE (Full PPR) Scoring: 1QB, 3WR, 2RB, 2FLX, 1 SFLX, 1TE, 1D/ST, K (Only relevant players listed)
QB: Kyler , Dak , R. Wilson, Dimes, Kenny P
RB: AK , Mostert
WR: Godwin , Deebo , Dotson , Hollywood, Addison, E. Moore
TE: Andrews , Njoku, LaPorta, Washington, Mayer
D/ST: Bills / Philly
Picks : 2024: 3 firsts; 2025: 3 firsts; 2026: 4 firsts
QB: Kyler , Dak , R. Wilson, Dimes, Kenny P
RB: AK , Mostert
WR: Godwin , Deebo , Dotson , Hollywood, Addison, E. Moore
TE: Andrews , Njoku, LaPorta, Washington, Mayer
D/ST: Bills / Philly
Picks : 2024: 3 firsts; 2025: 3 firsts; 2026: 4 firsts
- thomasscheeks
- Ring of Fame
- Posts: 3907
- Joined: Thu Jul 28, 2016 7:30 am
Re: The Age Cliff: Some Win-now WR Buys
The best route imo is to have a mix of youth and vets. Young studs are obviously the cream of the crop, but it's difficult to win without some older guys in their prime. It's impossible to tell when a player is going to retire, so don't worry too much about it. Selling a player like Fitzgerald isn't a bad idea though since he's likely only playing one more year, but players like Julio and AJG are definite holds at this point (unless you get their full value of course)
10 Man IDP, .75 ppr, Big Play Bonus, TE Prem, 2 QB, 1-3 RB, 2-4 WR, 2 TE, 2 DT, 2 DE, 3 LB, 4 DB, 34 Keepers (17 off - 17 IDP)
QB: Watson, Lawrence, Tannehill, Fitzmagic
RB: Jacobs, Javonte, Drake, Mack
WR: Thomas, DJ Moore, Mike Williams, Golladay, Mooney, Kirk, Shepard, Parker
TE: Kittle, Ito Smith, Ebron, Bryant, Seals-Jones
DT: Simmons, Cox, Oliver, Vea
DL: Bosa, Hunter, Heyward, Greenard, Odeyingbo
LB: Watt, White, Cunningham, Kirksey
DB: Collins, Duggar, J Reid, Clark, Edmunds
12 Man, 1 ppr, 1 QB, 1-3 RB, 1-3 WR, 1 TE
QB: Tua, Jameis, Cam, Taysom
RB: Taylor, Javonte, CEH
WR: Jefferson, Nuk, Diontae, Juju, Shepard, Mooney, Robby Anderson
TE: Henry, Gesicki, Brevin, Cook
12 Man, 1 ppr, 1 QB, 1-3 RB, 1-3 WR, 1 TE
QB: Russ, Matty Ice, Tannehill
RB: CMC, Dobbins, Sanders. Scott, Mack
WR: Nuk, Keenan, Mooney, Patrick, Collins, Dyami
TE: Andrews, Schultz, Brevin, Akins
QB: Watson, Lawrence, Tannehill, Fitzmagic
RB: Jacobs, Javonte, Drake, Mack
WR: Thomas, DJ Moore, Mike Williams, Golladay, Mooney, Kirk, Shepard, Parker
TE: Kittle, Ito Smith, Ebron, Bryant, Seals-Jones
DT: Simmons, Cox, Oliver, Vea
DL: Bosa, Hunter, Heyward, Greenard, Odeyingbo
LB: Watt, White, Cunningham, Kirksey
DB: Collins, Duggar, J Reid, Clark, Edmunds
12 Man, 1 ppr, 1 QB, 1-3 RB, 1-3 WR, 1 TE
QB: Tua, Jameis, Cam, Taysom
RB: Taylor, Javonte, CEH
WR: Jefferson, Nuk, Diontae, Juju, Shepard, Mooney, Robby Anderson
TE: Henry, Gesicki, Brevin, Cook
12 Man, 1 ppr, 1 QB, 1-3 RB, 1-3 WR, 1 TE
QB: Russ, Matty Ice, Tannehill
RB: CMC, Dobbins, Sanders. Scott, Mack
WR: Nuk, Keenan, Mooney, Patrick, Collins, Dyami
TE: Andrews, Schultz, Brevin, Akins
-
- Ring of Fame
- Posts: 3580
- Joined: Fri Nov 08, 2013 8:54 pm
Re: The Age Cliff: Some Win-now WR Buys
Pierre Garcon seems like a good buy-low right now, and will probably cost more than half of what those other guys you mentioned would cost
Last edited by colonnaj94 on Thu Jan 04, 2018 1:13 pm, edited 1 time in total.
32 Team .5 PPR, 2 Copies
QB Lawrence, Ridder
RB Bijan Robinson, Walker, Javonte Williams, Dillon
WR Pickens, Dell, Doubs, Reed, Mims
TE Freiermuth
12 Team PPR
QB Young
RB Harris, Pierce, Chandler, Bigsby, Kelley
WR Johnston, Wicks, Mingo, W Robinson, Z Jones, Marshall, Pierce, Toney, Perry
TE Freiermuth, Ferguson, Kraft, Gray
(3) 24 1sts, (5) 24 2nds, (2) 25 1sts, (2) 25 2nds
12 Team PPR SF TE Premium IDP
QB Tagovailoa, Burrow
RB Chubb, Ford, Warren, Pierce, Javonte Williams, N Harris
WR Allen, Samuel, Pittman, Metcalf, Ridley, Rice
TE Goedert, Bryant, Hill
DL Watt, Sieler, Jones, P Smith, Simmons, Lawrence, Z Smith
LB Morrow, Deablow, To'oTo'o
DB Holland, Winfield, Wallace, Bell
12 Team PPR SF TE Premium IDP
QB Mahomes, Tannehill
RB Mostert, Pacheco, Montogmery, Pierce, Ford, Warren, Javonte Williams
WR Chase, Allen, Sutton, Pittman, Doubs
TE Kelce, Hurst, Dulcich
DL Hunter, Cooper, Allen, Autry, Carter, Young
LB Franklin, Oluokun, Singleton
DB Smith, Curl, Love, Byard, McKinney
QB Lawrence, Ridder
RB Bijan Robinson, Walker, Javonte Williams, Dillon
WR Pickens, Dell, Doubs, Reed, Mims
TE Freiermuth
12 Team PPR
QB Young
RB Harris, Pierce, Chandler, Bigsby, Kelley
WR Johnston, Wicks, Mingo, W Robinson, Z Jones, Marshall, Pierce, Toney, Perry
TE Freiermuth, Ferguson, Kraft, Gray
(3) 24 1sts, (5) 24 2nds, (2) 25 1sts, (2) 25 2nds
12 Team PPR SF TE Premium IDP
QB Tagovailoa, Burrow
RB Chubb, Ford, Warren, Pierce, Javonte Williams, N Harris
WR Allen, Samuel, Pittman, Metcalf, Ridley, Rice
TE Goedert, Bryant, Hill
DL Watt, Sieler, Jones, P Smith, Simmons, Lawrence, Z Smith
LB Morrow, Deablow, To'oTo'o
DB Holland, Winfield, Wallace, Bell
12 Team PPR SF TE Premium IDP
QB Mahomes, Tannehill
RB Mostert, Pacheco, Montogmery, Pierce, Ford, Warren, Javonte Williams
WR Chase, Allen, Sutton, Pittman, Doubs
TE Kelce, Hurst, Dulcich
DL Hunter, Cooper, Allen, Autry, Carter, Young
LB Franklin, Oluokun, Singleton
DB Smith, Curl, Love, Byard, McKinney
- thomasscheeks
- Ring of Fame
- Posts: 3907
- Joined: Thu Jul 28, 2016 7:30 am
Re: The Age Cliff: Some Win-now WR Buys
Crap, forgot to answer your "time to buy" window.
Yes, you can get a discount on elite talent if you buy the aging guys. But this shouldn't be your main tactic to win games. You're likely to go through rebuild after rebuild if this is your approach. Just make good trades when the opportunity arises. There's a million different ways to win, but there's no single way. Mix it up!
Yes, you can get a discount on elite talent if you buy the aging guys. But this shouldn't be your main tactic to win games. You're likely to go through rebuild after rebuild if this is your approach. Just make good trades when the opportunity arises. There's a million different ways to win, but there's no single way. Mix it up!
10 Man IDP, .75 ppr, Big Play Bonus, TE Prem, 2 QB, 1-3 RB, 2-4 WR, 2 TE, 2 DT, 2 DE, 3 LB, 4 DB, 34 Keepers (17 off - 17 IDP)
QB: Watson, Lawrence, Tannehill, Fitzmagic
RB: Jacobs, Javonte, Drake, Mack
WR: Thomas, DJ Moore, Mike Williams, Golladay, Mooney, Kirk, Shepard, Parker
TE: Kittle, Ito Smith, Ebron, Bryant, Seals-Jones
DT: Simmons, Cox, Oliver, Vea
DL: Bosa, Hunter, Heyward, Greenard, Odeyingbo
LB: Watt, White, Cunningham, Kirksey
DB: Collins, Duggar, J Reid, Clark, Edmunds
12 Man, 1 ppr, 1 QB, 1-3 RB, 1-3 WR, 1 TE
QB: Tua, Jameis, Cam, Taysom
RB: Taylor, Javonte, CEH
WR: Jefferson, Nuk, Diontae, Juju, Shepard, Mooney, Robby Anderson
TE: Henry, Gesicki, Brevin, Cook
12 Man, 1 ppr, 1 QB, 1-3 RB, 1-3 WR, 1 TE
QB: Russ, Matty Ice, Tannehill
RB: CMC, Dobbins, Sanders. Scott, Mack
WR: Nuk, Keenan, Mooney, Patrick, Collins, Dyami
TE: Andrews, Schultz, Brevin, Akins
QB: Watson, Lawrence, Tannehill, Fitzmagic
RB: Jacobs, Javonte, Drake, Mack
WR: Thomas, DJ Moore, Mike Williams, Golladay, Mooney, Kirk, Shepard, Parker
TE: Kittle, Ito Smith, Ebron, Bryant, Seals-Jones
DT: Simmons, Cox, Oliver, Vea
DL: Bosa, Hunter, Heyward, Greenard, Odeyingbo
LB: Watt, White, Cunningham, Kirksey
DB: Collins, Duggar, J Reid, Clark, Edmunds
12 Man, 1 ppr, 1 QB, 1-3 RB, 1-3 WR, 1 TE
QB: Tua, Jameis, Cam, Taysom
RB: Taylor, Javonte, CEH
WR: Jefferson, Nuk, Diontae, Juju, Shepard, Mooney, Robby Anderson
TE: Henry, Gesicki, Brevin, Cook
12 Man, 1 ppr, 1 QB, 1-3 RB, 1-3 WR, 1 TE
QB: Russ, Matty Ice, Tannehill
RB: CMC, Dobbins, Sanders. Scott, Mack
WR: Nuk, Keenan, Mooney, Patrick, Collins, Dyami
TE: Andrews, Schultz, Brevin, Akins
-
- Captain
- Posts: 798
- Joined: Tue Dec 26, 2017 8:43 pm
Re: The Age Cliff: Some Win-now WR Buys
I think that the cut off or clff age is closer to 32 or 33 than 30, there are definitely some goof buy lows such as pierre garcon as mentioned above, you might even be able to get someone like jordy nelson for pretty much nothing but having a mix of youth and older players is defiantly best
16 team Tiered PPR league, TE Premium, 52 man roster, 2 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1W/R, 1TE/W, Full IDP
QB- Russ, Justin Herbert
RB- Antonio Gibson Ty Johnson, David Johnson Lat Murray
WR- Davante Adams, Allen Robinson, DJ Moore, Cordarelle Patterson,
TE- Hockeson, , Jonnu Smith, Firkser, Logan Thomas
QB- Russ, Justin Herbert
RB- Antonio Gibson Ty Johnson, David Johnson Lat Murray
WR- Davante Adams, Allen Robinson, DJ Moore, Cordarelle Patterson,
TE- Hockeson, , Jonnu Smith, Firkser, Logan Thomas
Re: The Age Cliff: Some Win-now WR Buys
It all depends on your team construction and whether or not you're a WR away from competing. Guys I'd be buying if you're trying to compete would be Baldwin and DT. Julio, AJG, and AB won't be discounted as much, so I'd still expect those guys to cost a lot more.
- gunzwil guinea pigs
- Role Player
- Posts: 381
- Joined: Thu Sep 14, 2017 1:22 pm
- Location: Switzerland
Re: The Age Cliff: Some Win-now WR Buys
Jordy, Crabtree, DT, Baldwin, Fitzgerald
Sanders, Marshall, Maclin, Decker (cheap, but for a reason...)
Sanders, Marshall, Maclin, Decker (cheap, but for a reason...)
2QB-Dynasty - 10 Team standard scoring - 30man roster
2QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, 1Flex, K, D/ST
QB: Joe Burrow, Jalen Hurts, Matthew Stafford, Mike White, Dorian Thompson-Robinson, Marcus Mariota
RB: Breece Hall, Tony Pollard, Najee Harris, Joe Mixon, Rashaad Penny, Damien Harris
WR: CeDee Lamb, Garrett Wilson, Stefon Diggs, Devonta Smith, Terry McLaurin, George Pickens, Calvin Ridley, Zay Flowers, Robert Woods, John Metchie, Marvin Mims
TE: Kyle Pitts, Irv Smith, Trey McBride
K: Tyler Bass
D/ST: Browns, Washington, Packers
Picks 2024: 1st, 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th
Picks 2025: 1st, 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th
Picks 2026: 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th
2QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, 1Flex, K, D/ST
QB: Joe Burrow, Jalen Hurts, Matthew Stafford, Mike White, Dorian Thompson-Robinson, Marcus Mariota
RB: Breece Hall, Tony Pollard, Najee Harris, Joe Mixon, Rashaad Penny, Damien Harris
WR: CeDee Lamb, Garrett Wilson, Stefon Diggs, Devonta Smith, Terry McLaurin, George Pickens, Calvin Ridley, Zay Flowers, Robert Woods, John Metchie, Marvin Mims
TE: Kyle Pitts, Irv Smith, Trey McBride
K: Tyler Bass
D/ST: Browns, Washington, Packers
Picks 2024: 1st, 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th
Picks 2025: 1st, 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th
Picks 2026: 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th
-
- Captain
- Posts: 769
- Joined: Thu Mar 16, 2017 11:43 am
Re: The Age Cliff: Some Win-now WR Buys
I still think it really depends on the injury history of the player and the offense he is in. Julio is in my opinion getting a little risky because he seemed to have a lingering injury all season, but he still has a ton of value.
Current Win Now!!:
Chester
10 team PPR (1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 Flex, 1 Kicker, 1 Def/St) 27 man roster limit:
Qb Josh Allen, Joe Burrow
RB Jonathan Taylor, Christian McCaffery, Dalvin Cook, Saquon Barkley, Jk Dobbins, Gus Edwards, Eno Benjamin
WR Cooper Kupp, Michael Thomas, Chris Godwin, Juju Smith-Shuster, Brandon Aiyuk, Calvin Ridley (S), Zay Jones, Lavishka Shenault, Terrace Marshall,
TE George Kittle, Darren Waller, Pat Freiermuth
K Justin Tucker
Def/St Buffalo Bills, Carolina Panthers
Possibly competitive team
QB: DeShaun Watson, Daniel Jones, Cj Stroud
RB: Breece Hall, Travis Etienne, JK Dobbins, JaVonte Williams, Latavius Murray, Gus Edwards, Kenny McIntosh
WR: Calvin Ridley, Jaylen Waddle, Chris Olave, Michael Thomas, Garrett Wilson, Darnell Mooney, Romeo Doubs, Terrace Marshall, Justyn Ross, Kayshoun Boutte, Puka Nacka
TE: Kyle Pitts, Zach Ertz, Darren Waller, Tucker Kraft
K: Justin Tucker
D/St: Bills, Bucs
Chester
10 team PPR (1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 Flex, 1 Kicker, 1 Def/St) 27 man roster limit:
Qb Josh Allen, Joe Burrow
RB Jonathan Taylor, Christian McCaffery, Dalvin Cook, Saquon Barkley, Jk Dobbins, Gus Edwards, Eno Benjamin
WR Cooper Kupp, Michael Thomas, Chris Godwin, Juju Smith-Shuster, Brandon Aiyuk, Calvin Ridley (S), Zay Jones, Lavishka Shenault, Terrace Marshall,
TE George Kittle, Darren Waller, Pat Freiermuth
K Justin Tucker
Def/St Buffalo Bills, Carolina Panthers
Possibly competitive team
QB: DeShaun Watson, Daniel Jones, Cj Stroud
RB: Breece Hall, Travis Etienne, JK Dobbins, JaVonte Williams, Latavius Murray, Gus Edwards, Kenny McIntosh
WR: Calvin Ridley, Jaylen Waddle, Chris Olave, Michael Thomas, Garrett Wilson, Darnell Mooney, Romeo Doubs, Terrace Marshall, Justyn Ross, Kayshoun Boutte, Puka Nacka
TE: Kyle Pitts, Zach Ertz, Darren Waller, Tucker Kraft
K: Justin Tucker
D/St: Bills, Bucs
Re: The Age Cliff: Some Win-now WR Buys
32 last statistically solid year for WRs. Yes some beat it, yes some go earlier, but top WRs seem to drop out of the top 12 at 33. Not going to find the link right now but it was pretty easy to see when examining the stats and ignoring the opinions. So, if someone looking to dump any of the guys you have listed at a discount and you are a WR away, they are a buy. However, I'd worry a bit about AB due to Ben's potential retirement more so than AB age diminished production.jonesmaster wrote: ↑Thu Jan 04, 2018 1:01 pm Just wanted to get a sense of when you all believe WRs fall off "the age cliff". Seems that as the old-guard (e.g. Julio, AB, AJG, Hilton) approaches age 30 we're seeing an optimal time to buy. Is this a widely accepted idea in dynasty? or should you just always hold youth (who retain their value more in down years). Trying to figure out how to best "go for it"
10 TM No PPR or waiver 85RST
Herbert Fields Garoppolo Ridder
JT Barkley Etienne Ingram Charb CEH
Evans Aiyuk Dionte Jeudy London JWill GWils EMoore JMyers Mims Moorex2
Andrews Kinkaid Pits Freiermuth
NBosa Quinnen DJJones Clark F-Myers Taylor Graham
Darius Okereke Kendricks DCampbell DJones Baker Kiser Brooks
Adams Simmons Vaccaro Joseph
12 TM .5ppr 45 RST
Herbert Stroud Mayfield
JT Achane Kamara Ford Pacheco Jaleel
AJB DK Godwin Aiyuk Kirk ZJones RMoore Thornton
Hock F-muth
LWilliams Payne Reed Greenard
Bernard Kendricks Warner Baker Williams Tranquil
Budda McKinney Clark Wilson
1-2QB 2-4RB 3-5WR 1-3TE 11OFF/DEF
Herbert Stafford Brock Dobbs
Taylor Jacobs Mattison Kyren Jaleel Ford Bigsby
AJB Diggs Evans Kirk McLaurin Dionte Boyd Renfrow JuJu
Kelce Pitts Deguara
Hutchinson Rousseau Greenard Travon Demarcus
QWilliams EJones TBernard Dean ShaqT Kyzir
Amos Bates Peppers Murray Fitz Clark
Herbert Fields Garoppolo Ridder
JT Barkley Etienne Ingram Charb CEH
Evans Aiyuk Dionte Jeudy London JWill GWils EMoore JMyers Mims Moorex2
Andrews Kinkaid Pits Freiermuth
NBosa Quinnen DJJones Clark F-Myers Taylor Graham
Darius Okereke Kendricks DCampbell DJones Baker Kiser Brooks
Adams Simmons Vaccaro Joseph
12 TM .5ppr 45 RST
Herbert Stroud Mayfield
JT Achane Kamara Ford Pacheco Jaleel
AJB DK Godwin Aiyuk Kirk ZJones RMoore Thornton
Hock F-muth
LWilliams Payne Reed Greenard
Bernard Kendricks Warner Baker Williams Tranquil
Budda McKinney Clark Wilson
1-2QB 2-4RB 3-5WR 1-3TE 11OFF/DEF
Herbert Stafford Brock Dobbs
Taylor Jacobs Mattison Kyren Jaleel Ford Bigsby
AJB Diggs Evans Kirk McLaurin Dionte Boyd Renfrow JuJu
Kelce Pitts Deguara
Hutchinson Rousseau Greenard Travon Demarcus
QWilliams EJones TBernard Dean ShaqT Kyzir
Amos Bates Peppers Murray Fitz Clark
- WhatWouldDitkaDo
- GOAT
- Posts: 14721
- Joined: Mon Dec 29, 2014 11:02 am
Re: The Age Cliff: Some Win-now WR Buys
I think the best buy-low WR this offseason is Jordy Nelson. He's fallen off athletically, but his timing and communication with Aaron Rodgers will keep him in the WR1/2 conversation for a couple more seasons, especially if they move Nelson to the slot. I would be buying anywhere I can for a late 1st if my team is contending.
Kittles Pox | Championships: 2015, 2017
12-Team PPR | QB, 2RB, 2WR, TE, W/R/T, K, DST
QB: Kyler Murray, Aaron Rodgers
RB: Christian McCaffrey, Melvin Gordon, James Conner, Phillip Lindsay, Tevin Coleman, Boston Scott, Benny Snell Jr.
WR: Tyreek Hill, Mike Evans, Cooper Kupp, Michael Gallup, Christian Kirk
TE: George Kittle, Travis Kelce | K: Younghoe Koo | DST: SF
PS: Mecole Hardman, Tony Pollard | 2020 Picks: 1.09, 2.10, 3.03 | 2021 Picks: 1st, 2nd
12-Team PPR | QB, 2RB, 2WR, TE, W/R/T, K, DST
QB: Kyler Murray, Aaron Rodgers
RB: Christian McCaffrey, Melvin Gordon, James Conner, Phillip Lindsay, Tevin Coleman, Boston Scott, Benny Snell Jr.
WR: Tyreek Hill, Mike Evans, Cooper Kupp, Michael Gallup, Christian Kirk
TE: George Kittle, Travis Kelce | K: Younghoe Koo | DST: SF
PS: Mecole Hardman, Tony Pollard | 2020 Picks: 1.09, 2.10, 3.03 | 2021 Picks: 1st, 2nd
-
- Hall of Fame
- Posts: 4534
- Joined: Tue Mar 05, 2013 5:11 pm
Re: The Age Cliff: Some Win-now WR Buys
I bought AJG for a playoff run this year. Didn’t work out for me, but I figure I will compete with AJG for a couple more years.
Moves my Allen Robinson (IR) for his AJG. He was in rebuild, so it literally was a perfect match that benefited both teams.
Moves my Allen Robinson (IR) for his AJG. He was in rebuild, so it literally was a perfect match that benefited both teams.
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: Google [Bot] and 24 guests