The Age Cliff: Some Win-now WR Buys

[jonesmaster]

Just wanted to get a sense of when you all believe WRs fall off "the age cliff". Seems that as the old-guard (e.g. Julio, AB, AJG, Hilton) approaches age 30 we're seeing an optimal time to buy. Is this a widely accepted idea in dynasty? or should you just always hold youth (who retain their value more in down years). Trying to figure out how to best "go for it"

[thomasscheeks]

The best route imo is to have a mix of youth and vets. Young studs are obviously the cream of the crop, but it's difficult to win without some older guys in their prime. It's impossible to tell when a player is going to retire, so don't worry too much about it. Selling a player like Fitzgerald isn't a bad idea though since he's likely only playing one more year, but players like Julio and AJG are definite holds at this point (unless you get their full value of course)

[colonnaj94]

Pierre Garcon seems like a good buy-low right now, and will probably cost more than half of what those other guys you mentioned would cost

[thomasscheeks]

Crap, forgot to answer your "time to buy" window.

Yes, you can get a discount on elite talent if you buy the aging guys. But this shouldn't be your main tactic to win games. You're likely to go through rebuild after rebuild if this is your approach. Just make good trades when the opportunity arises. There's a million different ways to win, but there's no single way. Mix it up!

[Easy Breesy]

I think that the cut off or clff age is closer to 32 or 33 than 30, there are definitely some goof buy lows such as pierre garcon as mentioned above, you might even be able to get someone like jordy nelson for pretty much nothing but having a mix of youth and older players is defiantly best

[Goddard]

It all depends on your team construction and whether or not you're a WR away from competing. Guys I'd be buying if you're trying to compete would be Baldwin and DT. Julio, AJG, and AB won't be discounted as much, so I'd still expect those guys to cost a lot more.

[gunzwil guinea pigs]

Jordy, Crabtree, DT, Baldwin, Fitzgerald
Sanders, Marshall, Maclin, Decker (cheap, but for a reason...)

[ThatGuyBrian]

I still think it really depends on the injury history of the player and the offense he is in. Julio is in my opinion getting a little risky because he seemed to have a lingering injury all season, but he still has a ton of value.

[saw061600]

Just wanted to get a sense of when you all believe WRs fall off "the age cliff". Seems that as the old-guard (e.g. Julio, AB, AJG, Hilton) approaches age 30 we're seeing an optimal time to buy. Is this a widely accepted idea in dynasty? or should you just always hold youth (who retain their value more in down years). Trying to figure out how to best "go for it"

32 last statistically solid year for WRs. Yes some beat it, yes some go earlier, but top WRs seem to drop out of the top 12 at 33. Not going to find the link right now but it was pretty easy to see when examining the stats and ignoring the opinions. So, if someone looking to dump any of the guys you have listed at a discount and you are a WR away, they are a buy. However, I'd worry a bit about AB due to Ben's potential retirement more so than AB age diminished production.

[WhatWouldDitkaDo]

I think the best buy-low WR this offseason is Jordy Nelson. He's fallen off athletically, but his timing and communication with Aaron Rodgers will keep him in the WR1/2 conversation for a couple more seasons, especially if they move Nelson to the slot. I would be buying anywhere I can for a late 1st if my team is contending.

[slaughterrt]

I bought AJG for a playoff run this year. Didn’t work out for me, but I figure I will compete with AJG for a couple more years.

Moves my Allen Robinson (IR) for his AJG. He was in rebuild, so it literally was a perfect match that benefited both teams.