Dynasty League Football Forum

I got a offer of a mid first round pick for my Josh Gordon....it was a easy accept for me...just want to double check with you all and get some feedback.

For Team 2 in my Sig.

Probably 90% of people on here are going to say you just won the trade in a landslide. It all depends on the level of risk you want to take. A mid 1st has a 40% chance of producing a top 24 season at least once in their career. Now those aren't great odds, but the odds of a drug abuser returning to their old ways is actually higher. With that said, i'm taking the bet on Gordon, knowing damn well that if he stays clean, he will easily be a top 24 talent.

Yeah, we cant expect the Gordon of Christmas past...nicely done! Id trade Gordon for any 1st and be happy....

Damn..

Nicely done, who did you trade him to ? Josh Gordon himself

Brag post

Give me the Gordon side

I have gordon and if pick isn't earlier than 8 I keep him. But I also like to gamble and I feel he is a gamble at this time

Steal

I turned down an offer of a late 1st in a 16 team league (basically an early 2nd in average leagues). Rather take the chance on Gordon than hope I land the next DJ with 30% odds at best.

gogobradyarm wrote: ↑Wed Nov 22, 2017 4:39 pm A mid 1st has a 40% chance of producing a top 24 season at least once in their career.

Curious where this stat came from. 40% chance for a mid 1st at their position? Overall? Feel like my hit rate with draft picks is way higher than this. I mean at least once in their career?

Fair trade. Gordon has superstar potential but this is a deep draft. I'm not exactly in love with your WRs, so time will tell.

Easily the 1st.

HughHoney wrote: ↑Thu Nov 23, 2017 12:56 am

gogobradyarm wrote: ↑Wed Nov 22, 2017 4:39 pm A mid 1st has a 40% chance of producing a top 24 season at least once in their career.

Curious where this stat came from. 40% chance for a mid 1st at their position? Overall? Feel like my hit rate with draft picks is way higher than this. I mean at least once in their career?

This stat sounds completely made up.

RB6 wrote: ↑Thu Nov 23, 2017 11:21 am Easily the 1st.

HughHoney wrote: ↑Thu Nov 23, 2017 12:56 am

gogobradyarm wrote: ↑Wed Nov 22, 2017 4:39 pm A mid 1st has a 40% chance of producing a top 24 season at least once in their career.

Curious where this stat came from. 40% chance for a mid 1st at their position? Overall? Feel like my hit rate with draft picks is way higher than this. I mean at least once in their career?

This stat sounds completely made up.

It sounds roughly correct to me based on historical data. Here's an article on it: http://www.rotoworld.com/articles/nfl/7 ... raft-picks. They only look at the entire round in the article, so it's not a mid 1st specifically, but for the entire 1st round, the success rate (which is defined as a top 12 QB/TE season or a top 24 WR/RB season) is just less than 1 in 2.

As for the OP, I would take the 1st unless it was guaranteed to be late. As a Gordon owner myself, I want to at least see him on the field once before doing anything with him for any 2nd.

Historical success of picks in the top half of the first round are 50% so the number isn't far off at all. But frankly, I wouldn't give Gordon a percentage close to that high of success moving forward either. Any 1st round pick is worth more than Gordon.

I personally would take Gordon here but I also think Gordon is going to be a solid WR moving forward. I would definitely be willing to take the risk of Gordon who we have seen perform in the NFL without a QB over an uncertain rookie pick. If you feel good about it that's all that matters.