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Re: Lamar Miller vs. Keenan Allen

Posted: Fri Sep 08, 2017 5:46 pm
by albedo1986
Why did you write in a vacuum and then refer to your team? lol This would no longer be a vacuum.

In a vacuum, Allen - all day.

Re: Lamar Miller vs. Keenan Allen

Posted: Fri Sep 08, 2017 5:47 pm
by Space Cowboy
Allen by a lot.

Re: Lamar Miller vs. Keenan Allen

Posted: Sat Sep 09, 2017 11:07 am
by BigBawseRoss
Keenan easily

Re: Lamar Miller vs. Keenan Allen

Posted: Sun Sep 10, 2017 2:42 am
by aticodejon
Allen is my guy! however, are RBs not more valuable because of scarcity, all other things equal? or the other way round, WRs because of longevity? This dynasty thing is hard!

Edit: Allen seems to have a big following around here, but when I talk about him with fellow dynasty newbies in my startup league they all are very dismissive of him. What gives? There is something there to be learned particular to dynasty, I'm sure.

Re: Lamar Miller vs. Keenan Allen

Posted: Sun Sep 10, 2017 4:19 am
by onetwothree
aticodejon wrote:
Sun Sep 10, 2017 2:42 am
Allen is my guy! however, are RBs not more valuable because of scarcity, all other things equal? or the other way round, WRs because of longevity? This dynasty thing is hard!

Edit: Allen seems to have a big following around here, but when I talk about him with fellow dynasty newbies in my startup league they all are very dismissive of him. What gives? There is something there to be learned particular to dynasty, I'm sure.
The injury history has folks low on Keenan. He either proves them correct this season or he shows how fluky it was and regains his role as a PPR machine.

Generally speaking, WRs will hold their value longer than RBs. With maybe a 3-5 yr window, you don't want to pay the going rate until you feel you can compete.

Sounds like you are just starting up. Great forum to be on to make dynasty less hard!

Re: Lamar Miller vs. Keenan Allen

Posted: Sun Sep 10, 2017 4:58 am
by aticodejon
onetwothree wrote:
Sun Sep 10, 2017 4:19 am
aticodejon wrote:
Sun Sep 10, 2017 2:42 am
Allen is my guy! however, are RBs not more valuable because of scarcity, all other things equal? or the other way round, WRs because of longevity? This dynasty thing is hard!

Edit: Allen seems to have a big following around here, but when I talk about him with fellow dynasty newbies in my startup league they all are very dismissive of him. What gives? There is something there to be learned particular to dynasty, I'm sure.
The injury history has folks low on Keenan. He either proves them correct this season or he shows how fluky it was and regains his role as a PPR machine.

Generally speaking, WRs will hold their value longer than RBs. With maybe a 3-5 yr window, you don't want to pay the going rate until you feel you can compete.

Sounds like you are just starting up. Great forum to be on to make dynasty less hard!
Thanks, I am indeed! Both starting up and liking it here :wink:

Re: Lamar Miller vs. Keenan Allen

Posted: Sun Sep 10, 2017 8:38 am
by coldfusion167
Allen - he's still young.

Re: Lamar Miller vs. Keenan Allen

Posted: Sun Sep 10, 2017 8:54 am
by skip
onetwothree wrote:
Sun Sep 10, 2017 4:19 am
The injury history has folks low on Keenan. He either proves them correct this season or he shows how fluky it was and regains his role as a PPR machine.
His ADP doesn't reflect concern about injuries. Maybe that's the trigger for some, but injuries have nothing at all to do with why I don't like him as much as most.

Re: Lamar Miller vs. Keenan Allen

Posted: Mon Sep 11, 2017 1:43 am
by M-Dub
skip wrote:
Sun Sep 10, 2017 8:54 am
onetwothree wrote:
Sun Sep 10, 2017 4:19 am
The injury history has folks low on Keenan. He either proves them correct this season or he shows how fluky it was and regains his role as a PPR machine.
His ADP doesn't reflect concern about injuries. Maybe that's the trigger for some, but injuries have nothing at all to do with why I don't like him as much as most.
Why ARE you so down on Keenan? I'm sure you've explained it before, so I apologize for overlooking that post. I just know it's basically a running gag that you're the resident Keenan anti-truther around these parts, so I'd love to hear your reasoning, especially if it has nothing to do with his injury history.

Re: Lamar Miller vs. Keenan Allen

Posted: Mon Sep 11, 2017 6:42 am
by SpartacusPTech
I traded away Lamar Miller straight up last year for Keenan, before the season started if course, and I'd do it again today.

Re: Lamar Miller vs. Keenan Allen

Posted: Mon Sep 11, 2017 8:42 am
by skip
M-Dub wrote:
Mon Sep 11, 2017 1:43 am
Why ARE you so down on Keenan? I'm sure you've explained it before, so I apologize for overlooking that post. I just know it's basically a running gag that you're the resident Keenan anti-truther around these parts, so I'd love to hear your reasoning, especially if it has nothing to do with his injury history.
Not a problem, it has been some time and I avoid a lot of the Keenan threads at this point. Let's correct one thing in your question. "Truther" is actually the right term (not anti-truther) as a truther is one who does not agree with what is generally accepted.

The vast majority of members on this forum (and I think probably because they are on this forum because I don't generally see this elsewhere) use phrases such as "stud", "elite" or "WR1" when it comes to Keenan. For the record, I am not a "hater" of Keenan, I just believe that giving him such lofty praise is in error. I think I said something in this thread about Keenan basically being similar to Golden Tate. Here is my overall analysis:

Keenan is now entering his 5th year in the league. For the sake of the numbers, we can throw 2016 out as a lost season as he only played one game. So the data we have to work with is from 2013-2015. All of Keenan's current value is tied to his production from those 9 games from the 2015 season. Here you can see his ADP beginning in January of 2016 coming out of that season. He is currently at his lowest point at #27 overall - an early 3rd round pick.: http://apps.dynastyleaguefootball.com/a ... yers=15076

Keenan gets a lot of praise for being a "target monster". This was true in 2015 but not in prior seasons. He had an impressive rookie year but then fell off considerably the following season. A major difference was his drop in ypc which has continued to remain low since that time despite the increased targets he saw in 2015. What changed in 2015 for him to have seen that increase? Injuries to the rest of the receiving corps, but primarily to Antonio Gates. Antonio Gates had long been one of Rivers' favorite receivers and he missed 5 weeks of the 8 in which Keenan played. Gates had as many or (slightly) more targets in all 3 weeks they overlapped their play.

My analysis is hardly just statistical but also related to HOW he plays. He's a good route runner. But aside from that, there isn't much that stands out. He plays small considering he stands at 6'2". He's not physically imposing and does not present a big end zone target.

With the presence & emergence of other options - Melvin Gordon's increased role, Tyrell Williams, Hunter Henry, Antonio Gates...he isn't going to see a dominant target share. My projection for him is about 120-130 targets with season totals about 80-950-7 if he plays all 16 games (though I don't think he's a high risk player for injury, he's also never played all 16 games fwiw). Some may think that is low and perhaps the receptions are slightly. But that's actually a generous average (11.9) as the only time he's been over 11 was his rookie season.